پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

شبیه سازی ثأثیر شوک‌های تحریمی بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصاد ایران با رویکرد DSGE

مقالات آماده انتشار
نویسندگان
فریده خدادادی 1
سید رضا نخلی 2
1 استادیار اقتصاد، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
2 استادیار اقتصاد، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم اداری، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
10.48311/ecor.2025.24055
چکیده
هدف این پژوهش شبیه سازی تحریم ­های اقتصادی است. برای دستیابی به این هدف، یک الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی کینزین­ های جدید با لحاظ واقعیت­های اقتصاد ایران طراحی و سپس به شبیه­ سازی اعمال تحریم­ نفتی و مالی بین ­المللی پرداخته شده است. پس از تعیین مقادیر ورودی الگو و برآورد پارامترها با استفاده از داده ­های فصلی اقتصاد ایران طی دوره 1402-1370 نتایج حاصل از شبیه­ سازی متغیرهای مدل­، بیان­گر اعتبار مدل­ در توصیف نوسانات اقتصاد ایران است. نتایج الگو حاکی از آن است که، افزایش شدت تحریم‌ها باعث کاهش سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی و دولتی در بخش نفت، تکنولوژی، صادرات و در نتیجه تولید در این بخش می‌شود. این شرایط منجر به کاهش نسبت ذخایر خارجی بانک مرکزی به پایه پولی و افزایش نرخ ارز می­ شود. کاهش تولید داخلی و صادرات به همراه افزایش تورم، رکود تورمی را در اقتصاد ملی به وجود می‌آورد و افزایش هزینه‌های مصرفی و کاهش هزینه‌های سرمایه‌ای خانوارها را به دنبال دارد. از طرف دیگر، با کاهش درآمدهای دولت و تمرکز سیاست مالی دولت بر افزایش هزینه‌های جاری و حفظ هزینه‌های عمرانی، کسری بودجه و تمایل دولت به افزایش فروش اوراق به منظور جلوگیری از تشدید رکود اقتصادی رخ می دهد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
تحریم
متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی
شبیه سازی
مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی
رویکرد نیوکینزی

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Simulating the Effects of Sanction Shocks on Iranian Macroeconomic Variables: A DSGE Method

نویسندگان English

Farideh Khodadadi 1
Seyyed Reza Nakhli 2
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Governance, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Economic sanctions have long served as a significant instrument of power, with origins tracing back to ancient times. Prior to World War I, warfare was the primary means through which nations exerted influence, and sanctions were employed unilaterally as a secondary, complementary tool. However, following World War I and the establishment of the League of Nations, international cooperation led to a multilateral use of economic sanctions aimed at maintaining global peace and preventing conflict. Given the substantial impact of international oil and financial sanctions on macroeconomic variables across multiple markets and sectors, it is essential to develop a framework capable of evaluating their overall economic effects—particularly within the context of Iran’s economic conditions. This study constructs a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to assess the joint effects of oil and financial sanctions on key macroeconomic indicators in Iran. To date, DSGE models have not been widely applied to sanction-related studies, and the simultaneous analysis of oil and financial sanctions remains underexplored in the existing literature. This research, therefore, provides a novel contribution to the field by addressing this gap.

Aim and Introduction

Economic sanctions have historically functioned as one of the primary instruments of power, with documented use dating back to ancient times. Until the onset of World War I, military confrontation was the principal method for asserting influence, while economic sanctions were applied unilaterally and played a supplementary role. The post–World War I era, particularly following the Treaty of the League of Nations, marked a shift toward international and multilateral sanctions intended to preserve global stability and prevent conflict (Fashandi & Ghaderi, 2017).

In light of the pronounced effects of international oil and financial sanctions on macroeconomic variables across various sectors, a robust analytical framework is required to evaluate these impacts from a macroeconomic perspective, especially under Iran’s unique economic circumstances. This study develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to analyze the simultaneous effects of oil and financial sanctions on Iran’s macroeconomic indicators. Since such combined effects have not been previously explored using a DSGE framework, this research introduces innovative analytical dimensions and contributes new insights to the sanctions literature.

Methodology

This study adopts a multifaceted approach to data collection, incorporating library research, document analysis, and datasets from the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the World Bank (World Development Indicators). A DSGE model tailored to the structural characteristics of Iran’s economy was constructed, covering the period from 1991 to 2023. Standard econometric techniques were employed to evaluate the proposed hypotheses and analyze the economic consequences of international oil and financial sanctions. The models were estimated using the Dynare programming environment within MATLAB, enhancing the accuracy of estimations and the clarity of results interpretation.

Findings

The findings reveal that increased sanctions on the oil sector lead to significant reductions in exports, technological advancement, and investment within the oil industry. This reduction hampers funding capacity and further diminishes oil exports. A decline in oil production and exports contributes to lower foreign currency reserves held by the Central Bank, which in turn raises the exchange rate.

The depreciation of the domestic currency, compounded by financial sanctions, inflates the cost of imported goods. On one hand, this drives up the price of final goods and contracts domestic production; on the other, it raises inflationary pressures, particularly for import-dependent sectors. Financial sanctions contribute to heightened costs for both domestic consumers and the government, while simultaneously eroding the competitiveness of non-oil exports. As a result, overall exports decline.

The contraction in domestic production, coupled with reduced oil exports and production, leads to declining GDP and rising inflation, which trigger economic stagnation and increased unemployment. In response, monetary authorities prioritize inflation control by limiting the growth of the monetary base.

Model results also indicate that a decline in oil revenues produces a fiscal deficit. To finance this deficit, the government resorts to issuing bonds rather than borrowing from the Central Bank, aligning with prudent monetary policy goals.

Discussion and Conclusion

The model results indicate that heightened sanctions severity reduces foreign and government investment, technological advancement, and exports, consequently leading to a decline in oil production. This reduction in oil output diminishes the monetary base relative to the central bank’s foreign reserves and results in a higher exchange rate. The ensuing economic effects include decreased domestic production and exports, rising inflation, and overall economic stagnation.

Simultaneously, household consumption increases while the cost of capital for households declines. This situation reduces government revenues and compels the government to adopt expansionary fiscal policies, including increased current expenditures and the maintenance of capital spending, in an effort to mitigate the recessionary impact. However, these measures contribute to growing budget deficits and an increased reliance on bond issuance

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model
Sanctions
simulation
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پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از 25 شهریور 1404