پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

اثر شرایط ثبات سیاسی و حکمرانی بر دو بخش رسمی و غیررسمی اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
محمد مصطفی زاده 1
پرویز داودی 2
علی اکبر عرب مازار 2
حسین صمصامی 3
1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
2 استاد، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
3 استادیار، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
10.48311/ecor.2025.13635
چکیده
بی­ثباتی­های اقتصادی و اجتماعی، کاهش کیفیت مدیریت سیاسی، موجب افزایش هزینه­های مبادلاتی، ریسک سرمایه­گذاری و کاهش انگیزه برای فعالیت­های مولد اقتصادی می­شود. در این پژوهش، با استفاده از مدل­های اقتصاد­سنجی PCA و ARDL و آمار­های اقتصادی 1370 الی 1401، سعی شده اثر ریسک و بی­ثباتی و مدیریت سیاسی به‌همراه دیگر عوامل مؤثر بر بخش­های رسمی و غیررسمی اقتصاد ایران مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. با توجه به نتایج پژوهش، در برآورد تابع رشد اقتصادی، می­توان گفت که اثر حقوق مالکیت و مدیریت سیاسی، مثبت و اثر بی­ثباتی اقتصادی و تحریم­های اقتصادی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران، منفی بوده است. ضریب اثرگذاری مدیریت سیاسی، نسبتاً بزرگ بوده و افزایش یک واحدی در آن، رشد اقتصادی را 0033/3 درصد افزایش می­دهد. همچنین، با افزایش یک واحدی بی­ثباتی اقتصادی، 1935/0 درصد رشد اقتصادی کاهش می­یابد. درخصوص عوامل مؤثر بر اقتصاد زیرزمینی، افزایش در متغیرهای: ریسک و بی­ثباتی، نرخ بیکاری، حجم دولت، درآمدهای مالیاتی و تحریم­ها، موجب بزرگ‌تر شدن حجم اقتصاد زیرزمینی می­شوند و در مقابل، بهبود شاخص مدیریت سیاسی، فعالیت­های غیررسمی در اقتصاد ایران را کمتر می­کند. در این میان، شاخص ریسک و بی­ثباتی با ضریب 99/3، نشان‌دهنده اثرگذاری نسبتاً بالا بر حجم اقتصاد زیرزمینی ایران است. بنابراین، اثرگذاری بالای مدیریت سیاسی و بی­ثباتی، تعیین کننده­ترین عامل بخش رسمی و غیررسمی اقتصاد شناخته شده­اند. لذا پیشنهاد می­شود که با بهره­گیری از سیاست­های مناسب اقتصادی و حکمرانی که موجب بهبود مدیریت سیاسی و کاهش ریسک در بازارها و همچنین ثبات در جامعه می­شوند، فعالیت­های غیررسمی را به حداقل رساند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
اقتصاد زیرزمینی
رشد اقتصادی
ریسک و بی‌ثباتی
مدیریت سیاسی
نهادهای حکمرانی

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

The Effect of Political Stability, Governance Conditions, and Risk on the Formal and Informal Sectors of Iran’s Economy

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Mostafazadeh 1
Parviz Davood 2
Aliakbar Arabmazar 2
Hossein Samsami Mazraeakhund 3
1 Ph.D. Student in Economics, Faculty of Economic and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, Faculty of Economic and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economic and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Aim and Introduction 
Economic and social instability, insecurity, and poor governance significantly increase transaction costs and investment risks while reducing incentives for productive economic activities. Institutional conditions and the political environment are fundamental factors influencing economic growth, as they affect the motivations of economic agents and thereby influence investment decisions, production organization, and overall economic performance. Macroeconomic instability, as an undesirable phenomenon, imposes both economic and social costs on society. Its persistence disturbs the national economic structure and diminishes household welfare by undermining financial security and increasing economic uncertainty.
Furthermore, effective economic policy-making and national development planning require a comprehensive understanding of the economy’s formal and informal sectors. The informal or underground economy includes activities outside the scope of official oversight, such as unregistered income, tax evasion, and operations beyond legal, social, and economic regulations. These activities are typically excluded from official GDP calculations but represent a significant share of economic production. 
Modern definitions of economic growth encompass not only increases in GDP but also broader improvements in societal economic well-being. Notably, economic production occurs in both formal and informal sectors; thus, a thorough analysis of both is essential for developing effective and inclusive growth strategies. This study aims to evaluate the influence of political and economic risk, instability, and governance quality on both sectors of Iran’s economy over the period 1370–1401 (1991–2022). To achieve this, relevant indices were constructed to measure risk and instability in economic, financial, and social domains, as well as Iran’s governance performance, with the goal of identifying key determinants of formal sector strengthening and informal sector reduction.
Methodology
This research employs an endogenous growth model to investigate the factors influencing economic growth in Iran. Data on the underground economy are drawn from estimates produced using the Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model. The methodological framework combines econometric techniques, notably Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. 
PCA is applied to construct composite indices where multiple explanatory variables are involved, particularly in capturing instability and governance indicators. ARDL is used to examine relationships among variables, given the mixed order of integration in the time series data. This dual approach enables the study to assess the impact of governance, risk, and economic instability on both the formal and informal economic sectors.
Results and Discussion
The results show that within the economic growth function, property rights and political management exert a positive influence, while economic instability and international sanctions negatively affect Iran’s economic growth. Specifically, an increase of one unit in the political management index results in a 3.0033% increase in economic growth, whereas a one-unit rise in the economic instability index leads to a 0.1935% decline in growth.
In analyzing the informal (underground) economy, the study finds that increased risk and instability, unemployment, government size, tax revenues, and sanctions all contribute to the expansion of the informal sector. Conversely, improvements in political management reduce informal economic activities. Notably, the risk and instability index shows a high impact, with a coefficient of 3.99, signifying its strong correlation with the growth of Iran’s underground economy.
Conclusion 
Improved political management enhances formal economic activity while suppressing informal sector expansion. Specifically, advancements in governance indicators—such as political participation, accountability, and rule of law—help reduce the size of the underground economy and promote formal sector growth. On the other hand, economic and social instabilities, including financial market volatility, inflation, speculation, and societal insecurity, incentivize informal economic behavior, thereby undermining the formal structure of the economy. 
To address these challenges, the study recommends implementing comprehensive governance and economic reforms. On the governance side, strategies should include corruption control, enhanced oversight, legal enforcement, public trust-building, and increased legitimacy of political institutions. On the economic front, stabilizing inflation, exchange rates, and market speculation—as well as improving social cohesion through targeted policies—can mitigate the growth of informal economic activities. A balanced, multi-pronged approach will foster sustainable economic development and enhance the resilience of Iran’s formal economy.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Economic growth
Governance institutions
Political management
Risk and instability. Underground economy
Abada, F. C., Manasseh, C. O., Nwakoby, I. C., Iroegbu, N. F., Okoh, J. I., Alio, F. C., & Asogwa, O. J. (2021). Relationship between unemployment rate and shadow economy in Nigeria: A TadoYamamoto approach. International Journal of Financial Research, 12(3), 271-283.
Acemoglu, D., Naidu, S., Restrepo, P. & Robinson, J. A. (2019). Democracy does cause growth. Journal of Political Economy, 127(1), 47-100. 
Acemoglu, D., Robinson, J. A. & Verdier, T. (2017). Asymmetric growth & institutions in an interdependent world. Journal of Political Economy, 125(5), 1245-1303.
 Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2010). The role of institutions in growth and development. Review of Economics and Institutions, 1(2), 1- 33. 
Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2006). economic backwardness in political perspective. American Political Science Review, 100(1), 115-131.
Ali, A., & Rehman, H. (2015). Macroeconomic instability and its impact on gross domestic product: An empirical analysis of Pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 53(2), 285-316.
Almeida, S. J., Esperidião, F., & Moura, F. R. (2024). The impact of institutions on economic growth: Evidence for advanced economies and Latin America and the Caribbean using a panel VAR approach. International Economics, 178, 100480,
Arabmazar, A., Moshrefi, R., & Mostafazadeh, M. (2018). Political economy of growth and impact of some of the fundamental factors on economic growth of Iran. Economic Growth and Development Research, 30(8), 17-32. [In Persian]
 Ariza Marín, D., Goda, T., & Tabares Pozos, G. (2021). Political competition, electoral participation and local fiscal performance. Development Studies Research, 8(1), 24-35. 
Arouri, M., Uddin, G. S., Nawaz, K., Shahbaz, M., & Teulon, F. (2013). Causal linkages between financial development, trade openness and economic growth: Fresh evidence from innovative accounting approach in case of Bangladesh. Ipag Business School, Working Paper, 2013-037.
Barro, R. J. (1973). The control of politicians: An economic model. Public Choice, 14, 19-42. 
Bayat, B. F., Seifipour, R., Mohammadi, T., & Mehrabian, A. (2022). Investigating the impact of natural resource abundance and institutional quality on economic growth in recession and boom regimes. Applied Theories of Economis, 34(9), 231-256. [In Persian]
Berdiev, A. N., & Saunoris, J. W. (2016). Financial development and the shadow economy: A panel VAR analysis. Economic Modelling, 57, 197- 207.
Bittencourt, M., Gupta, R., & Stander, L. (2014). Tax evasion, financial development and inflation: Theory and empirical evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 41, 194-208.
 Blackburn, K., Bose, N., & Capasso, S. (2012). Tax evasion, the underground economy and financial development. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 83(2), 243-253.
Brillet, J. L. (2015). Macro econometric modelling: A practical approach under eviews. With a focus on Africa. AGRODEP Technical Note, 11, 125-175.
Borhanipour, A., Geraeinejad, Gh., Daghighiasli, A., & Hadinejad, M. (2022). Assessment of the impact of good governance index on economic growth in upper middle income countries (Panel STR approach). Economic Growth and Development Research, 45(12), 95-114. [In Persian]
Borumand, Sh. (2008). Corruption, private sector investment and economic growth (Case study: Iran). Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics, 5(2), 107-129. [In Persian]
Buehn, A., & Schneider, F. (2012). Shadow economies around the world: Novel insights, accepted knowledge, and new estimates. International Tax and Public Finance, 19(1), 139-171. 
Capasso, S., & Jappelli, T. (2013). Financial development and the underground economy. Journal of Development Economics, 101, 167-178
Carlos, G. (2016). Institutions and growth: A GMM/IV panel VAR approach. Economics Letters, 138, 85-91.
Chong, A., & Gradstein, M. (2009). Volatility and firm growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 14(1), 1-25.
d'Agostino, G., Dunne, J. P., & Pieroni, L. (2016). Government spending, corruption and economic growth. World Development, 84, 190-205,
David, L. (2015). Votes and regional economic growth: Evidence from Turkey. World Development, 78, 477-495.
Dehghanmanshadi, M., Eslamloueyan, K., Hadian, E., & Dehghanshabani, Z. (2020). The Effect of institutional quality on business cycle and the dynamics of macroeconomic variables in Iran. Journal of Economics and Modelling, 11(1), 29-66. [In Persian]
Delessa, K., Alemu, T., & Bane, J. (2024). Remittances inflow and economic growth nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa: Do institutional quality and macroeconomic stability matter?. Heliyon, 10(3), e25690.
Dell’Anno, R. (2007). The shadow economy in Portugal: An analysis with the MIMIC approach. Journal of Applied Economics, 10, 253-277. 
Dell’Anno, R., & Solomon, O. H. (2008). Shadow economy and unemployment rate in USA: Is there a structural relationship? An empirical analysis. Applied Economics, 40(19), 2537-2555.
Dell’Anno, R., & Davidescu, A. A. (2018). Estimating Shadow economy in Tanzania: An analysis with the MIMIC approach. Journal of Economic Studies, 45(1), 100-113
Ditta, A., & Hayat, M. A. (2017). Macroeconomic instability and its role on income inequality in developing countries: A Panel Data analysis. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 55(2), 613 -636. 
Dunning, J. H. (2001). The eclectic (OLI) paradigm of international production: Past, present and future. International Journal of the Economics of Business, 8(2), 173-190.
Elbahnasawy, N. G. (2021). Can E-government limit the scope of the informal economy?. World Development, 139(C), 105341.
Elgin, C., & Oztunali, O. (2012). Shadow economies around the world: Model based estimates. Bogazici University Department of Economics, Working Papers, 5.
Enste, D. H. (2003). Shadow Economy and Institutional Change in Transition Countries. The Informal Economy in the EU Accession Countries: Size, Scope, Trends and Challenges to the Process of EU Enlargement. Centre for the Study of Democracy, Sofia, 81-113. 
Esfandiari, A.A., & Mehrbani, F. (2007). Investigating of underground economy by using currency ratio and gap between expenditure and income of the family. Economic Research, 23(4), 133-162. [In Persian]
Farzanegan, M. R., Hassan, M., & Badreldin, A. M. (2020). Economic liberalization in Egypt: A way to reduce the shadow economy?. Journal of Policy Modeling, 42(2), 307-327.
Fatas, A., & Mihov, I. (2013). Policy volatility, institutions & economic growth. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(2), 362-376
Fotros, M, H., & Dalaei, M. A. (2016). Examination of underground economy and tax evasion within the framework of dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models (DSGE). Economic Growth and Development Research, 25(7), 65-84. [In Persian]
Gilakhakimabadi, M, T., Zaroki, Sh., & Hasanzade, Sh. (2017). The effect of macroeconomic instability on financial crimes in Iran. Strategic Research on Social Problems, 16(6), 29-46. [In Persian]
Giles, D. (1998). The  underground economy: Minimizing the size of government. Department Discussion Papers 9801, Department of Economics, University ov Victoria.
González-Fernández, M., & González-Velasco, C. (2015). Analysis of the shadow economy in the Spanish regions. Journal of Policy Modeling, 37(6), 1049-1064.
Hasanvand, S., Zarranezhad, M., & Montazerihojat, A. H. (2016). The analysis of the effect of unemployment rate on the shadow economy in selected developing countries. Economic Growth and Development Research, 22(6), 103-118. [In Persian]
Iqbal, N., & Nawaz, S. (2010). Fiscal Decentralization and Macroeconomic Stability: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan. Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Ismihan, M. (2003). The Role of Politics and Instability and Public Spending Dynamics and Macroeconomic Performance: Theory and Evidence from Turkey. PHD Thesis, METU, Ankara. 
Jalouli, M., Sarlak, A., Ghafari, H., & Horri, MS. (2020). the study of the effects of economic instability on the production of major sectors of economy in Iran. Economic Growth and Development Research, 38(10), 99-118. [In Persian]
Karbor, R., Karimi, T, Z., & Rostamzadeh, P. (2019). Estimation of underground economy in Iran's provinces and effective factors. Applied Theoriesn of Economics, 21(6), 161-188. [In Persian]
Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M., (2010). Governance matters: The worldwide governance indicators, aggregate indicators of governance 1996-2010. URL: http://www.govindicators.org
Khodadad, K, F., Noranizad, S., & Shateri, S. (2020). The impact of government size and governance on economic growth in vision document countries (Nonlinear Threshold GMM approach). Economic Growth and Development Research, 41(11), 35-52. [In Persian]
Kijek, A., & Kijek, T. (2020). Nonlinear effects of human capital and R&D on TFP: Evidence from European regions. Sustainability, 12(5).
Knack, S. Ed. (2003). Democracy, Governance and Growth, Ann Arbor. The University of Michigan press.
Knack, S. and Keefer, P. (1995). Institutions and economic performance: Cross‐country tests using alternative institutional measures. Economics & Politics, 7(3): 207-227.
Luo, C., Fan, S., & Zhang, Q. (2017). Investigating the influence of green credit on operational efficiency and financial performance based on hybrid econometric models. International Journal of Financial Studies, 5(4), 27.
 Marija Radzeviča, A. & Bulderberga, K. (2018). The role of institutional quality in economic growth: Implications for the Baltic states, Bachelor Thesis. 
Matallah, S. (2020). Economic diversification in MENA oil exporters: Understanding the role of governance. Resources Policy, 66, 1-11. 
Medina, l., & Schneider, F. (2017). Shadow economies around the world: New results for 143 countries over 1996-2014. Discussion Paper, Department of Economics, University of Linz, Austria.
Miladi, L, N., Sharifi, R, H., & Daeikarimzadeh, S. (2023). Analysis of factors affecting Iran's economic growth with an emphasis on the household risk preparation (Smooth transition regression approach). The Economic Research, 23(3), 133-157. [In Persian]
Snowdon, B., & Howard R. V. (2005). Modern Macroeconomics: Its Origins, Development and current State, Cheltenham. UK; Northhampton, MA: E. Elgar, c2005.
Mostafazadeh, M., & Arabmazar, A. (2019). The Effect of Governance Institutions on International Migration of Iranian Workforce. The Journal of Economic Policy, 20(10), 1-33. [In Persian]
Mozafari, SH, H., & Ghobadi, S. (2019). Impact of Economic and Political Factors on Financial Corruption, Economic Growth and the Size of Government in Selected Oil Producing Countries: A System Panel Data Approach. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 79(24), 177-207. [In Persian]
Nieman, M. D. and Thies, C. G. (2012). Property rights regimes, technological innovation, and foreign direct investment. Under Review Paper.
Nusrate, A., & Ahmad, H.  (2018). Institutions and economic growth: Does income level matter?.  MPRA Paper.
Omri, A., & Mabrouk, N. B. (2020). Good governance for sustainable development goals: Getting ahead of the pack or falling behind?. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 83, 1-8. 
Pourali, M., Rajaei, Y., & Dalmanpour, M. (2020). Effects of macroeconomic and institutional variables on the economic growth of selected developing countries. Applied Economics, 32 & 33(10), 79-96. [In Persian]
Ruge, M. (2012). Public governance and shadow economy. The Berlin Internaional Economic Congress, 2015, 1-10.
Salomifar, M., & Keivanfar, M. (2010). Informal economy in Iran and the effect of inflation on it. Journal of Knowledge and Development, 33(17), 52-74. [In ersian]
Samati, M., Sameti, M., & Delaimilan, A. (2009). Estimating the underground economy in Iran (1964-2005): By the MIMIC method. International Economic Studies, 35(20), 114-89. [In Persian]
Schneider, F., & Klinglmair, R. (2004). Shadow economies around the world: What do we know?. Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research, IZA Discussion Paper (1043). CESifo Working Paper Series, 1167, 1-58. 
Schneider, F., Buehn, A., & Montenegro, C. E. (2010). New estimates for the shadow economies all over the world. International Economic Journal, 24(4), 443-461. 
Schneider, F., & Buehn, A., (2017). Estimating a shodow Economy: Results, methods, problems, and open questions. Open Economics, 1, 1-29. 
Sharifi,  M., Haghighat, A., Ebrahimi, M., & Aminifard, A. (2022). Investigating the effect of financial development and tax on the underground economy; Evidence from Iran's economy. Economic Growth and Development Research, 46(12), 68-88. [In Persian]
Shahbaz, M. (2013). Linkages between inflation, economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 32, 496-506.
Skorobogatova, N. (2016). Macroeconomic instability: Its causes and consequences for the economy of Ukraine. Eastern Journal of European Studies, 7(1), 66-96. 
Spiro, P. S. (2018). Tax Policy and the Underground Economy. In Size, Causes and Consequences of the Underground Economy. Routledge.
Stigler, G. J. (1972). Economic competition and political competition. Public Choice, 13(1), 91-106.
Taghineghad, V., & Nikpoor, M. (2014). Underground economy and its causes: A case study of Iran. Applied Economics Studies Iran, 8(2), 53-72. [In Persian]
Taherifar, K. (1995). The role of underground economic activities in Iran, emphasis on the motive of tax evasion. Master's Thesis, University of Tehran, Iran. [In Persian]
Tanzi, V. (1980). The underground economy in the United States: Estimate and implications. Banca Nazionale Del Lavoro, 135(4), 427-453.
Tanzi, V. (1998). Corruption around the world: Causes, consequences, scope, and cures. Staff Papers, 45(4), 559-594. 
Tanzi, V. (1999). Uses and abuses of estimates of the underground economy. Economic Journal, 109(3), 338-347. 
Tavares, J. (2009). Economic integration and the comovement of stock returns. Economics Letters, 103(2), 65-67.
Tullio, J., & Capasso, S. (2013). Financial development and the underground economy. Journal of Development Economics, 101©, 167-178. 
Valeriani, E., & Peluso, S. (2011). The impact of institutional quality on economic growth and development: An empirical study. Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, 1(6), 443-468.
Xu, Y., & Li, A. (2020). The relationship between innovative human capital and interprovincial economic growth based on Panel Data Model and spatial econometrics. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 365(3). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cam.2019.112357.
Zaroki, Sh., Abdi, S, M., & Yousefi, B, A. (2021). Analyzing the role of macroeconomic instability on income inequality in Iran. The Economic Research, 21(4), 37-63. [In Persian]
Zaroki, Sh., Nasrnejadnesheli, S., & Tavassolynia, A. (2022). Analyzing the effect of macroeconomic variables on the underground economy with emphasis on fiscal policy instruments. Economic Research, 57(1), 85-123. [In Persian]