پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

تأثیر درگیری و بی‌ثباتی سیاسی بر رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای منتخب: رویکرد مدل‌های پانل بیزین مارکوف سویچینگ

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
محمود شریف پور 1
لطفعلی عاقلی 2
مارال اسکندری 3
1 فارغ‌التحصیل دکتری اقتصاد، گروه توسعه و برنامه‌ریزی اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
2 دانشیار، پژوهشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
3 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران شمال، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
10.48311/ecor.2025.13634
چکیده
مطابق با اقتصاد سیاسی، رابطه تنگاتنگ و در عین حال پیچیده‌ای مابین سیاست و  هدایت‌ گروه‌های اقتصادی وجود دارد. از این حیث بی‌ثباتی سیاسی، می‌تواند منجر به بی‌ثباتی اقتصادی شود و حرکت طبیعی اقتصاد را دچار اختلال کند و رشد اقتصادی کشور که مهم‌ترین شاخص عملکرد اقتصادی می‌باشد را کُند نماید. بر این اساس، هدف اصلی تحقیق حاضر، مدل‌سازی تأثیر درگیری و بی‌ثباتی سیاسی بر رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای منتخب در حال توسعه و توسعه یافته (ایران، عراق، عربستان سعودی، روسیه، آمریکا، هند، چین و کانادا)، با استفاده از رویکرد پانل مارکوف سویچینگ طی سال‌های 1990 تا 2020 می‌باشد. بر اساس نتایج، شاخص درگیری و بی‌ثباتی اقتصادی در رژیم رکود، به ترتیب، 0.1719- و 0.1212- درصد و در رژیم رونق، به ترتیب، 0.1581- و 0.1115- درصد بر رشد اقتصادی اثر دارند؛ لازم به‌ذکر است متغیرهای مذکور در هر دو رژیم تأثیر معناداری داشته، اما این متغیرها در شرایط رونق نسبت به رکود، اثر ضعیف‌تری بر رشد اقتصادی دارند. متغیرهای درآمد نفتی، رشد جمعیت، سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی، امید به زندگی، مصرف دولتی، تجارت و شاخص کیفیت حکمرانی، اثرات مثبت و معناداری بر رشد اقتصادی در هر دو رژیم دارند. رژیم غالب در تحقیق حاضر، رژیم رونق اقتصادی بوده است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
بی‌ثباتی سیاسی
درگیری
رشد اقتصادی
پانل بیزین مارکوف سویچینگ

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

The Impact of Political Instability and Conflict on Economic Growth in Selected Developing and Developed Countries

نویسندگان English

Mahmoud Sharifpour 1
Lotfali Agheli 2
Maral Eskandari 3
1 PhD in Economics, Department of Economic Development and Planning, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Econoomics, Department of Agricultural Economics, Economic Research Institute, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Economics, North Tehran Branch,Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Aim and Introduction: 
A growing body of research highlights the bidirectional relationship between conflict and economic performance. Findings indicate that economic decline—particularly severe recessions that reduce income levels, exacerbate inequalities, and intensify widespread economic distress—can fuel social unrest and internal conflicts. Periods characterized by a high risk of government collapse are associated with significant lower rates of economic growth compared to more politically stable periods. Although such violent events may not occur frequently, they are prevalent worldwide and have affected numerous countries. 
The Middle East, in particular, has long been afflicted by internal unrest, persistent conflicts, and intra- and intergovernmental tensions—all of which adversely influence national economies. Political economy literature underscores a complex interplay between political forces and economic direction, suggesting that political instability can disrupt economic continuity and hinder economic growth—a central indicator of national economic performance. 
Accordingly, the primary objective of this study is to model the effects of political instability and conflict on economic growth in a sample of developing and developed countries, namely Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United States, India, China, and Canada.
Methodology:
This study adopts a descriptive-analytical approach with practical applications, relying on secondary data collected through documentary research. The analytical method employed is the Bayesian Markov Switching Panel Regression, which effectively captures symmetric and asymmetric effects across different economic regimes.
The selected countries—spanning both developed and developing contexts—include Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, which have historically faced political tension and oil revenue fluctuations, as well as Russia, Canada, the United States, India, and China. The inclusion of India and China reflects their status as major global energy consumers. These countries were selected based on their exposure to international tensions and their substantial influence on the global energy landscape.
The study period covers 1990 to 2020. The Markov switching panel framework enables the model to differentiate the impact of explanatory variables across distinct economic regimes. For instance, political stability may influence economic growth differently during recessionary periods compared to times of economic expansion. The variables of this research include conflict intensity, political instability, oil income, population growth, foreign direct investment, life expectancy, government expenditure, budget deficits, trade openness, and the governance quality index.
Results and Discussion:
The analysis reveals that conflict and economic instability exert statistically significant effects on economic growth across both recession and boom regimes. In the recession regime, the coefficients for conflict and instability are 0.17% and 0.12%, respectively, while in the boom regime, they are slightly lower at 0.16% and 0.11%. Although both variables remain significant in both regimes, their influence is more pronounced during recessions, implying that political instability and conflict are more detrimental to growth when the economy is already underperforming.
These findings are consistent with prior research by Ashenfelter and Troeger (2006), Gaybulov and Sandler (2019), and Bart et al. (2021). Additionally, variables such as oil income, population growth, foreign direct investment, life expectancy, government expenditure, trade openness, and governance quality all exhibit positive and statistically significant effects on economic growth in both regimes. 
The dominant economic regime identified in the study is the boom regime. Notably, with the exception of Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, the other countries analyzed have been experiencing economic growth in recent years. This observation underscores the correlation between political stability and sustained economic performance.
Conclusion:
The findings emphasize the critical role of political stability in fostering a robust and resilient economic environment. A stable political climate is not only essential for social cohesion but also serves as a prerequisite for sustainable economic growth and development. Policymakers are thus encouraged to invest in institutional reforms, infrastructure development, and inclusive governance frameworks that enhance citizens’ participation in decision-making processes. These measures can significantly contribute to both political stability and long-term economic prosperity in the countries under study.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Bayesian Markov switching model
Conflict
Economic growth
Oil income
Political instability
Abu Murad, M.S. and Alshyab, N. (2019). Political instability and its impact on economic growth: The case of Jordan. International Journal of Development Issues, Vol. 18, No. 3, 366-380. DOI:10.1108/IJDI-02-2019-0036.
Acemoglu, D., Hassan, T.A. and Tahoun, A. (2018). The power of the street: Evidence from Egypt's Arab Spring. The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 31, No. 1, 1-42.
Agheli, L. (2017). Political stability, misery index and institutional quality: case study of Middle East and North Africa. Икономически изследвания, 6, 30-46.
Aisen, A. and Veiga, F.J. (2013). How does political instability affect economic growth?. European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 29, 151-167.
      DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2012.11.001
Alesina, A., Özler, S., Roubini, N. and Swagel, P. (1996). Political instability and economic growth. Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 1, No. 2, 189-211.  https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138862 
Anas, J., Billio, M., Ferrara, L., and Mazzi, G. L. (2008). A system for dating and detecting turning points in the Euro area. The Manchester School, 76: 549-577. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2008.01076.x
Asgharpur, H., Ahmadian, K., Maniee, O. (2014). Effect of political instability on economic growth in Iran (Nonlinearity method, APARCH). QJERP, 21(68):175-194. [In Persian]
Asteriou, D., & Price, S. (2001). Political instability and economic growth: UK time series evidence. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 48(4), 383-399.
      https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9485.00205
Barrett, P., Appendino, M., Nguyen, K. and de Leon Miranda, J. (2020). Measuring social unrest using media reports. IMF Working Paper WP/20/129, Washington, DC.  10.5089/9781513582573.001.A001
Barrett, P., Bondar, M., Chen, S., Chivakul, M. and Igan, D. (2021). Pricing protest: The response of financial markets to social unrest. IMF Working Paper 21/079, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The quarterly journal of economics, 106(2), 407-443.
Barro, R. J. (1996). Determinants of economic growth: A cross-country empirical study (No. w5698). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Barro, R. J., & Lee, J. W. (1993). Losers and winners in economic growth. The World Bank Economic Review, 7(suppl_1), 267-298.
Billio, M., Casarin, R., Costola, M. and Pasqualini, A. (2016a). An entropy -based early warning indicator for systemic risk. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 45, 42-59. 
Billio, M., Casarin, R., Ravazzolo, F. and Van Dijk, H. K. (2012). Combination schemes for turning point predictions. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 52, 
402 -412. DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2012.08.002 
 Billo, M., Casarin, R., Ravazzollo, F. and Vandick, H. K. (2016b). Interconnections between Eurozone and US booms and busts using a Bayesian panel Markov -switching VAR model. J. Appl. Econometrics, 31, 1352-1370. MR3580904
Bozzoli, C., Brück, T. and Sottsas, S. (2010). A survey of the global economic costs of conflict. Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 21, No. 2, 165-176.
      DOI:10.1080/10242690903568934
Brune, A., Hens, T., Rieger, M.O. and Wang, M. (2015). The war puzzle: Contradictory effects of international conflicts on stock markets. International Review of Economics, Vol. 62, No. 1, 1-21. DOI: 10.1007/s12232-014-0215-7
Clements, M. P., and Krolzig, H. M. (1998). Business cycle asymmetries: Characterisation and testing based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions.
      https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uwarer/269248.html 
Clements, M. P., and Krolzig, H. M. (2000). A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP. Econometrics Journal, 1, C47-C75.
Costalli, S., Moretti, L. and Pischedda, C. (2017). The economic costs of civil war: Synthetic counterfactual evidence and the effects of ethnic fractionalization. Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 54, No. 1, 80-98. Doi: 10.1177/0022343316675200
Deger, S. (1986). Economic development and defense expenditure. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 35(1), 179-196. DOI: 10.1086/451577
Diebold, Francis X., & Rudebusch, Glenn D. (1996). Measuring business cycles: A modern perspective. The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, Vol. 78(1),  67-77, February.
Dorsett, R. (2013). The effect of the troubles on GDP in Northern Ireland. European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 29, 119-133.
      https://doi.org/10.1108/REPS-06-2021-0059
Dunne, J. P., Smith, R. P., & Willenbockel, D. (2005). Models of military expenditure and growth: A critical review. Defense and Peace Economics, 16(6), 449-461.https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690500167791
Ebadi, J., Motavaseli, M., Nikou-Nesbati, A., & Khazra N. (2012). Is democracy good for developing countries?. JMDP, 24(4): 55-73.
      http://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.17350719.1390.24.4.3.1. [In Persian]
Fiqh Majidi, A., Salami, F. and Gudini, S. (2013). Investigating the relationship between democracy and economic growth in developing countries using a mixed data approach. The First International Conference on Management, Accounting and Economics. [In Persian]
Gaibulloev, K. and Sandler, T. (2019). What we have learned about terrorism since 9/11. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 57, No. 2, 275-328.
      DOI: 10.1257/jel.20181444
Golkhandan, A. and Mohammadian Mansour, S. (2023). The effect of political instability indicators on the economic growth of Mesopotamia countries. Quarterly Journal of Mesopotamia Political Studies, Vol. 2, No.3. [In Persian]
Guidolin, M. and La Ferrara, E. (2010). The economic effects of violent conflict: Evidence from asset market reactions. Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 47, No. 
6, 671-684.
Hadzi-Vaskov, M., Pienknagura, S. and Ricci, L. (2021). The macroeconomic impact of social unrest. IMF Working Paper 21/135, Washington, DC.
Hamilton, J. D. & Susmel, R. (1994). Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime. Journal of Econometrics, 64, 307-333.
      https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)90067-1
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, 57, 357-384.
      https://doi.org/10.2307/1912559
Iqbal, M., Bardwell, H. and Hammond, D. (2021). Estimating the global economic cost of violence: Methodology improvement and estimate updates. Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 32, No. 4, 403-426. DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1689485
Jafari Samimi, A., Montazeri Shorakchali, J. and T. Musa. (2012) Life expectancy and economic growth in Iran, soft transition regression model. Scientific-Research Quarterly of Economic Growth and Development Research, 4th. year, 13th. issue, 117-128. [In Persian]
Jong-A-Pin, R. (2009). On the measurement of political instability and its impact on economic growth. European Journal of Political Economy, 25(1), 15-29.
      https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2008.09.010
 Kamijani, A., Gurji Bandapi, E. and Iqbali, A. (2014). Estimating a new model of political business cycles: The case study of Iran. Commercial Research Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 71, 1-34.
Keshavarz, H., Rezaei, M. (2020). Political, financial and economic instability in Iran's economy: Dimensions and factors affecting it. International Political Economy Studies, 4(2), 691-724. Doi: 10.22126/IPES.2022.6122.1348 [In Persian]
Kim, Chang-Jin and Charles, R. Nelson. (1998). Business cycle turning points, A new coincident index, and tests of duration dependence based on a dynamic factor model with regime switching. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 188-201.
      DOI:10.1162/003465398557447
Kim, Chang-Jin and Charles, R. Nelson. (1999a). State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications. MIT Press: Cambridge. DOI:10.7551/mitpress/6444.001.0001
     Kollias, C. and Tzeremes, P. (2022). The nexus between social unrest and economic growth in Middle East and Central Asia countries. Review of Economics and Political Science, Vol. 7, No. 2, 74-86. https://doi.org/10.1108/REPS-06-2021-0059
Krolzig, H. M. (1997a). International business cycles: Regime shifts in the stochastic process of economic growth. Applied Economics Discussion Paper, 194, University of Oxford.
Krolzig, H. M. (1997b). Markov Switching Vector Autoregressions. Modelling, Statistical Inference and Application to Business Cycle Analysis. Berlin: Springer.
Kuck, K. and Schweikert, K. (2017). A Markov regime-switching model of crude oil market integration. Journal of Commodity Markets, S2405-8513(16) 30115-5, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2017.03.001.
Lonzo Lubu, G. , Musonda Kalusambo, J. , Tondi Kikola, C. and Ambroise, J. (2023). Infrastructure spending, political instability and economic growth. IBusiness, 15, 119-139. doi: 10.4236/ib.2023.152009.
Matta, S., Bleaney, M. and Appleton, S. (2021). The economic impact of political instability and mass civil protest. Economics and Politics.
     doi: 10.1111/ecpo.12197. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12197
Murdoch, J. C., & Sandler, T. (2004). Civil wars and economic growth: Spatial dispersion. American Journal of Political Science, 48(1), 138-151.
     https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0092-5853.2004.00061.x
Paasonen, K. (2020). Are the unhappy unemployed to blame for unrest? Scrutinizing participation in the Arab Spring uprisings. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, Vol. 26, No. 1, 1-22.
Polachek, S. W. (1980). Conflict and trade. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 24(1), 55-78. https://doi.org/10.1177/002200278002400103
Polachek, S. and Sevastianova, D. (2012). Does conflict disrupt growth? Evidence of the relationship between political instability and national economic performance. The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, Vol. 21, No. 3, 361-388. DOI:10.1080/09638191003749783
Ponticelli, J. and Voth, H. J. (2020). Austerity and anarchy: Budget cuts and social unrest in Europe, 1919-2008. Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 48, No. 1, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2019.09.007
Prezeworski, A., & Limongi, F. (1993). Political regimes and economic growth. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7(3), 51-69.
Qadri Moghadam, R., Basri, B., Falihi, N., & Abbasi, G. (2022). Investigating the uncertain impact of macroeconomic variables on electricity and gas consumption in Iran (Markov-switching approach). Scientific Quarterly of Industrial Economics Research, 6(19), 77-97.
     https://doi.org/10.30473/jier.2022.9184. [In Persian]
Schneider, G. and Troeger, V. (2006). War and the world economy: Stock market reactions to international conflicts. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 50, No. 5, 623-645.
Shahabadi, A., & Behari, Z. (2013). The effect of political stability and economic freedom on the economic growth of selected developed and developing countries. Economic Growth and Development Researches, 16. 53-72. 
[In Persian]
Siegle, J. T., Weinstein, M. M., & Halperin, M. H. (2004). Why democracies excel. Foreign Aff., 83, 57. DOI:10.2307/20034067
Smith, R. (2014). The economic costs of military conflict. Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 51, No. 2, 245-256. DOI:10.1177/0022343313496595
Sweidan, O. (2016). Political instability and economic growth: Evidence from Jordan. Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, Vol. 12, No. 3, 279-300. https://doi.org/10.1515/rmeef-2015-0025
Veninga, W. and Ihle, R. (2018). Import vulnerability in the Middle East: Effects of the Arab spring on Egyptian wheat trade. Food Security, Vol. 10, No. 1, 
183-194. 
Weezel, S. (2015). Economic shocks and civil conflict onset in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1981-2010. Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 26, No. 2, 153-177.
Weinberg, J. and Bakker, R. (2015). Let them eat cake: Food prices, domestic policy and social unrest. Conflict Management and Peace Science, Vol. 32 ,No. 3, 309-326. Doi: 10.1177/0738894214532411
Worth, R.F. (2016). A Rage for Order: The Middle East in Turmoil, from Tahrir Square to ISIS. Macmillan, New York.
Yousefi, A. (2007). Alavi Economic System. Tehran, Research Institute of Islamic Culture and Thought, 1386, first edition, p. 309. [In Persian]