پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

اثر شاخص تمرکز بر سودآوری سیستم بانکی کشورهای عضو سازمان همکاری اسلامی

نویسندگان
مرضیه رفیعیان اصفهانی 1
سعید دائی کریم زاده 2
مهشید شاهچرا 3
سارا قبادی 4
1 دانشجوی دکتری رشته علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد اصفهان(خوراسگان)، اصفهان، ایران.
2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، اصفهان، ایران.
3 استادیار پژوهشکده پولی و بانکی،تهران،ایران.
4 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، اصفهان،ایران.
چکیده
طی دو دهه گذشته، سیستم مالی در سراسر دنیا، تغییرات قابل ملاحظه ای را در محیط فعالیت خود تجربه کرده و عوامل داخلی و خارجی متعددی بر ساختار و عملکرد آن تأثیر گذار بوده است. با وجود این، بر خلاف تمامی تغییرات مذکور، سیستم بانکی همچنان میدان دار اصلی تأمین مالی فعالیت اقتصادی در بسیاری از کشورها است و بنابراین، ارزیابی عملکرد نظام بانکی، حائز اهمیت است. سودآوری از جمله عوامل تأثیر گذار در ارزیابی عملکرد بانک ها محسوب می شود و از این رو، شناخت عوامل مؤثر بر آن که مشتمل بر عوامل داخلی و خارجی است، ضروری می باشد. هدف محوری این مقاله، ارزیابی تأثیر شاخص تمرکز بر سودآوری صنعت بانکداری به روش گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته سیستمی است. در این مقاله، وضعیت بازار متشکل پولی کشورهای عضو سازمان همکاری اسلامی که شامل 52 کشور در بازه زمانی 2019-2005 می باشد، مورد بررسی قرارگرفت. برای این منظور، از شاخص هرفیندال- هیرشمن جهت اندازه گیری تمرکز و از بازده کل دارایی ها و شاخص ثبات بانکی، به عنوان معیارهای سودآوری و ریسک بانک ها استفاده شد. نتیجه برازش الگوی تحقیق، نشان دهنده تأثیر مثبت شاخص تمرکز بر بازده کل دارایی ها است؛ بدین معنا که افزایش تمرکز بازاری، باعث افزایش سودآوری شده است. با توجه به واقعیت های مشهود در اقتصاد کشورهای مورد مطالعه، ﺷﺪت ﺗﻤﺮﮐﺰ در ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﺑﺎﻧﮑﺪاری، ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ از ﻃﺮیﻖ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻗﺮار دادن ﮐﺎرآیﯽ و اﺛﺮﺑﺨﺸﯽ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ، ﭘﯿﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎی ﺑﺎ اﻫﻤﯿﺘﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻮدآوری ﺑﺎﻧﮏﻫﺎ داﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. علاوه برآن، متغیر‌های مستقل با وقفه (شاخص ثبات بانکی، کفایت سرمایه و بازده دارایی‌ها) و همچنین متغیرهای نسبت وام به سپرده و نسبت دارایی های بانک مرکزی، دارای تأثیر مثبت و معناداری با ریسک هستند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
سیستم بانکی
سودآوری بانک
مدیریت ریسک
شاخص تمرکز

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

The Effect of Concentration Index on the Profitability of the Banking System of the Member Countries of the Organization Of Islamic Cooperation

نویسندگان English

Marzieh Rafiean Esfahani 1
saeed Daei Karimzadeh 2
mahshid shaahchera 3
Sara Ghobadi 4
1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Economics. Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch. Islamic Azad University. Isfahan, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor of Economics, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Tehran, Iran
4 Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran.
چکیده English

Aim and Introduction

Over the past two decades, the banking system around the world has undergone significant changes in its operating environment, and several internal and external factors have influenced its structure and performance. Despite all these changes, the banking system remains the main source of financing economic activities in many countries. Therefore, evaluating the performance of the banking system is important. Profitability is one of the influential factors in evaluating the performance of banks. Thus, it is necessary to know the effective internal and external factors. The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the concentration index on the profitability of the banking industry. On the other hand, banks as established and organized institutions play an important role in attracting stagnant capital and transferring it to productive sectors, as well as meeting the needs of investors. Since a competitive environment in the banking system can increase efficiency and facilitate financial transactions, identifying the market structure of the banking industry is important for policymakers and banking operators, because it can be the way to remove the obstacles in creating a competitive market.

The policy makers could be selected the polices that achevied the economic goles.

Methodology

In order to achieve this goal, the impact of factors affecting the risk and profitability of banks, we especially use the concentration index as one of the dimensions of the market structure in the banking industry. The method of estimation is generalized method of moments (GMM).

For this purpose, concentration in the banking industry has been measured using the Herfindahl-Hirschman index. In addition, six control variables including capital adequacy, central bank assets ratio, deposit ratio, liquid assets ratio, credit ratio and cost-to-income ratio have been selected as explanatory-control variables. In this way, the explanatory variables of banks' profitability include bank-specific factors. Return on total assets and bank stability index have been used as profitability and risk criteria of banks. Also, the situation of the organized monetary market of 52 countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation was studied over the period 2005-2019.

Findings

Based on the findings of the research, the effects of independent variables in the profitability model are statistically significant and have positive effects on the profitability of banks. Regarding the main hypothesis of the research, i.e. the effect of the concentration index on the profitability of the banking system, it can be seen that the increase in market concentration has increased the profitability, which has a significant coefficient of 0.003817, which confirms the Structure-Conduct-Performance(SCP) hypothesis. In other words, based on this hypothesis, as the degree of market competition decreases, it becomes possible to earn higher profits. In addition, independent variables with lag of time (banking stability index, capital adequacy and return on assets) and the ratio of loans to deposits and the ratio of central bank assets have positive and significant impacts on risk.

Discussion and Conclusion

Experimental results have shown that the each of the independent variables has positive and significant effect on risk and profitability. The estimation results have shown the positive effect of the market concentration index on banks' profitability. In this way, in the periods when the concentration in the banking industry is higher, the profitability of the banks is high and with the increase in the level of concentration, the profitability of the banks has increased. As stated in the theoretical foundations, there are various theories regarding the relationship between concentration and profitability of banks. Although these theories differ on how to create this relationship, almost all of them emphasize that increasing concentration increases the profitability of banks and reduces competition. In other words, these theories predict that the relationship between concentration and profitability is positive. The result of fitting the research model shows a positive and significant effect of the concentration index on the return on total assets. This means that increasing market concentration has increased profitability. According to the obvious realities in the economies of the sample countries, the intensity of concentration in the banking industry have significant consequences for the profitability of banks by affecting the efficiency and effectiveness of resources.

Keywords: Banking System, Profitability, Risk Management, Concentration Index

JEL Classification: G21, G32, G38

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Bank System
Profitability
Risk management
Concentration Index
Bagheri, Hassan (2015). Analysis of factors affecting the profitability of commercial banks, financial research, ninth year, number 21: 26-3.
Blundel.R. & bond.s (2000). GMM estimation with persistent panel data: An application to production function. Economic review, 19: 321-340.
Greene, W. H. (2008). Econometric analysis ,sixth edition. New Jersey, Upper Saddle River: Pearson International.
Hafizi, Shahram and Tajbakhsh, Gholamali (2018). Investigating the relationship between banking sector factors and market structure on the profitability of commercial banks in Iran, Journal of New Achievements in Humanities Studies, second year, number 20: 107-122.
Din Mohammadi, Mustafa; Jabari, Amir and Ghorbani, Fahima (2017). Investigating the effect of business cycles on the profitability of public and private banks in Iran, Research Institute of Humanities and Cultural Studies, 5th year, No. 2:78-53.
Jaber, Jamil J. and Abdullah A. Al-khawaldeh (2014).The Impact of Internal and External Factors on Commercial Bank Profitability in Jordan, International Journal of Business and Management, 9 (4):22-30.
Zalbagi Darestani, Hossam (2014). Factors affecting stability in Iran's banking network, Quarterly Journal of Monetary and Banking Research, 7th year, No. 20: 327-307.
Zulfiqari, Mehdi; Waez, Seyed Ali and Khodamardi, Muhammad (1400). Presenting the model of the effect of political connections and corporate governance on the performance of banks in the conditions of financial crises, Economic and Financial Quarterly, 15th year, number 55: 191-215.
Rostami, Fariba (1390). Examining the internal factors affecting the profitability of the Agricultural Bank branch, Thesis of the Islamic Azad University of Sanandaj.
Shahchera, Mahshid (1389). Comparison of Iran's banking with the countries of the region, special issue of new economics, third year, number 9:131-1.
Shahchera, Mahshid and Jozdani, Nasim (2015). Diversification of incomes and profitability in the country's banking network, financial and economic policies quarterly, fourth year, number 14: 52-33.
Sharifinia, Hossein; Momeni, Houshang; Dakhihi, Alireza and Afshari, Majid (2019). Evaluating the impact of competitive power and monetary policy on the return on assets in Iranian banks, Financial Economics Quarterly, Year 14, Number 51:28-1.
Shahiki Tash, Mohammad Nabi; Shidai, Zahra and Shivai, Elham (2012). Market power and cost efficiency in Iran's banking industry, Economic Modeling Research Quarterly, No. 16: 133-157.
Tayibi, Syed Kamil; Haji Karmi, Marzieh and Sariri, Homa (2010). Analysis of the degree of financial and commercial openness on the financial development of Iran and its trading partners. Rah Andisheh Economic Research Quarterly, first year, number 78:4-10.
Farhang, Amir Ali; Ezni Ashari, Abu al-Qasim; Abolhasani, Asghar; Ranjbar, Mohammad Reza and Biabani, Jahangir (2016). Non-interest income, risk and profitability in the banking industry, Economic Modeling Quarterly, Year 10, Number 3: 47-70.
Fitras, Mohammad Hassan; Ferdowsi, Mehdi; Issazadeh, Saeed and Sepherdoost, Hamid (2017). Determinants of profitability in Iran's banking system with an emphasis on market structure and risk-taking behavior, monetary and financial economics researches, 25th year, number 1-20:16.
Ghaemi Asl, Mehdi; Hosseini Ebrahimabadi, Syed Ali and Heydari, Hossein (2018). Investigating the influencing factors on non-common banking income in Iran. Economic and Financial Quarterly, 13th year, number 47: 113-134.
Guderzi, Atusa and Zabeidi, Haider (2007). The impact of the expansion of electronic banking on the profitability of commercial banks in Iran, Iranian Economic Research Quarterly, 10th year, number 35: 111-140.
Mehrabanpour, Mohammadreza; Naderi, Mohammad; Inalo, Efat and Ash'ari, Elham (2016). Factors affecting the profitability of banks, Scientific Research Quarterly Journal of Experimental Financial Accounting Studies, 14th year, No. 54: 113-134.
Yousefi Hajiabad, Reza and Khodadad Kashi, Farhad (2014). Investigating the mutual effects of concentration level, profitability, research and development, Economic Research Quarterly (sustainable growth and development), 15th year, number 3: 173-192.
Allen, F. and Gale, D (2004); “Competition and Financial Stability”. Journal of Money, credit and Banking, 36: 453-480.
Alley, W. A. (1993).Collusion versus efficiency in the Japanese regional banking industry. Economic Studies Quarterly, 44: 206–215.
Anderson, T. W. and Hsiao, C. (1981). "Estimation of Dynamic Models with Error Components", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76: 589-606.
Antonio. T.P,(2013), "What determines the profitability of banks? Evidence from Spain", Accounting and Finance, Volume 53: 561- 586.
Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error- components models. Journal of econometrics, 68(1):29-51.
Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte carol evidence and application to employment equation. Review of Economic Studies, 58(2):117-142.
Aziz, A. I., Sharif, A. A., & Salih, D. G. (2017).Liquidity management and profitability in Islamic Banks in Kurdestan Region of Iraq,Cihan Bank for Islamic Investment and Finance as a case Study.
Bain, J.S. (1956). Barriers to new competition. Harvard University Press. Cambridge.
Baltagi, B. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data. John Wiley & Sons.
Barro, R. J., & Lee, J. W. (1996). International measures of schooling years and schooling quality. The American Economic Review, 86(2):218-223.
Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A. & Levine, R (2006); “Concentraion,Competition and Crises”. Journal
Banking and Finance, 30(5):1581-1603.
Ben Naceur, S. (2003), "The Determinants of The Tunisian Banking Industry Profitability: Panel Evidence" ,[Online] Available at www.mafhoum.com
Berger, A. N., Klapper, L. F. & Turk-Ariss, R (2008); “Bank Competition and Financial Stability”, J Financ Serv Research, 2:99-188.
Berger, A. N. (1995). The profit-structure relationship in banking–tests of market-power and efficient-structure hypotheses. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 27: 404-431.
Bikker, Jacob. A & Hu, Haixia (2004) Cyclical patterns in profits, provisioning and lending of banks and procyclicality of the new Basel capital requirements, PSL Quarterly Review, Vol. 55, No. 221: 143-167.
Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of econometrics, 87(1):115-143.
Boyd, J. H., & Runkle, D. E. (1993). Size and performance of banking firms. Journal of Monetary Economics, 31:47-67.
Bresnahan, T & leov. (1982). The Oligopoly Solution Concept is Identified. Economics Letters 10: 87-92.
Bikker, J., Haaf, K. (2002). Competition, Concentration, and their Relationship: An Empirical Analysis of the Banking Industry. Journal of Banking and Finance 26:2191–2214.
Bourke, P. (1989), “Concentration and Other Determinants of Bank Profitability in Europe, North America, and Australia”,Journal of Banking and Finance, 13(1): 65–79.
Casu, B., Girardone, C., & Molyneux, P. (2006). Introduction to Banking: Prentice Hall Financial Times.
Dehghan Dehnavi, M.A. (2011). Structure and Performance of Iran banking industry. Ph.d Dissertation, Tarbyat Modares University, Tehran, Iran. (In Persian).
Demsetz, H. (1973). Industry structure, market rivalry, and public policy. J.Law Econ. 6- 19.
Doll, Maurice. (2010). Bank Concentration, Competition, and Financial Stability. Tilburg Univarsity.
Gonzalez. Luis Otero and Razia,Alaa and Vivel Búa, Milagros and Sestayo,Ruben Lado (2019). International Review of Economics & Finance, Volume 4, November.
Halkos, G. E., & Salamouris, D. S. (2004). Efficiency measurement of the Greek commercial banks with the use of financial ratios: a data envelopment analysis approach. Management accounting research, 15(2): 201-224. 2019:84-101.
Iwata, G. (1974). Measurement of Conjectural Variations in Oligopoly, Econometrica 42:947-966.
Kasman Saadet, Kasman Adnan,(2015),Bank Competition,Concentration and Financial StablityintheTurkishbanking,EconomicSystems,http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.12.003
Kubo, K. (2006). The degree of competition in the Thai banking industry before and after the East Asian crisis. ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 23:325–340.
Li,X and Feng,H and Zhao,S and Carter,D (2021). The effect of revenue diversification on bank profitability and risk during the COVID-19 pandemic, Finance Research Letters Available online 5 February 2021, 101957.
Maggi, B. & P. S. Rossi, S. (2003). An Efficiency Analysis of Banking Systems: A comparison of European and united state large commercial banks using different functional forms. EIFC - Technology and Finance Working Papers. 35.
Marcus A. J. (1984). Deregulation and banking financial Policy. Journal of Banking and Finance, 8: 557-565.
Mason, E. S. (1939). Price and production policies of large scale enterprises. American Economic Review, 29: 61 – 74.
Matyas, L. and Sevestre P. (1992); The Econometric Analysis of Panel Data,Handbook of Theory and Application, Dordrech, Kluwer Academic Press.
Michalak, G., & Uhde, A. (2009). Credit risk securitization and bank soundness: Evidence from the micro-level for Europe. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 52(3):1-42.
Mileva, E. (2007). Using Arellano-Bond dynamic panel GMM estimators in Stata. Economics Department, Fordham University: 1-10.
Molyneux, Philip & Thornton, john (1992), Determinants of European bank profitability A note, Journal of Banking and Finance, No: 16: 163- 178.
Muradkhan, M. & Abduljalil, A (2020). “Determinants of Interest Margin in Pakistan: A Panel Analysis, Economies 2020, 8, 25; doi:10.3390/economies8020025.
Munacinga Simatele, Syden Mishi and Nomasomi Ngonyama (2018). Structure and profitability in the banking sector. Banks and Bank Systems, 13(1), 49-59. doi:10.21511/bbs.13(1).2018.05.
Panzar, J.C., Rosse, J.N( 1987). Testing for monopoly equilibrium. Journal of Industrial Economics 35, 443–456.
Peltzman, S. (1977), “The Gains and Losses from Industrial Concentration,” Journal of Law and Economics, 20(October):229-263.
Salinger, M. A. (1990), “The Concentration-Margins Relationship Reconsidered ” Brookings Papers on
Economic Activity: Microeconomics: 287-335.
Seelanatha,L.(2010).Market Structure,Efficieny and Performance of Banking Industry in Sri Lanka. Banks and Bank Systems,5(1):20-31.
Shaffer, S. (1989).Competition in the U.S. banking industry. Economics Letters, 29:321–323.
Trad, N., Trabelsi, M. A. & Goux, J. F (2017); “Risk and profitability of Islamic banks: A religious deception or an alternative solution?”.European Research on Management and Business Economics, 23(1):40-45.‌
Tan, Y. (2015). The impacts of risk and competition on bank profitability in China. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money: 1-26.
Weiss, L. W. (1974), “The Concentration-Profits Relationship and Antitrust,” in Harvey J. Goldschmid et al. (eds.), Industry Concentration: The New Learning, Little Brown, and Company, Boston.
Werden, G. J. (1991), “A Review of Empirical and Experimental Evidence on the Relationship between Market Structure and Performance,” Economic Analysis Group Discussion Paper 91-3, Antitrust Division, Department of Justice.
Yuan,Y.(2006). The state of competition of Chinese banking industry. Journal of Asian Economics, 17: 519–534.
Zhang, J., Qu, B., & Wang, W. (2012). Bank risk taking, efficiency, and law enforcement: Evidence from Chinese city commercial banks. China Economic Review, 23(2): 284-295.
پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی
دوره 23، شماره 2
تابستان 1402
صفحه 169-191