پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

تحلیل اثرات متقابل حکمرانی و توسعه در کشورهای صادرکننده نفت

نویسندگان
1 دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات
2 عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات
3 عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علو م و تحقیقات
4 عضو هیئت علمی دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه تهران
چکیده
هدف اصلی این مقاله، تحلیل اثرات متقابل حکمرانی و توسعه در کشورهای صادرکننده نفت است. در این راستا، اثرات متقابل در دو گروه کشورهای خاورمیانه و غیرخاورمیانه صادرکننده نفت مورد مقایسه قرار می گیرد. از مدل حداقل مربعات سه مرحله ای برای برآورد مدل بر اساس داده های بانک جهانی برای دوره زمانی ۱۹۹۶ تا ۲۰۱۴ و از آزمون های والد[۱]، کروسکال والیس[۲] و حداقل اختلاف معنادار[۳] استفاده شده است. کارکرد حکمرانی به یک موضوع اساسی تبدیل شده و کشورهای خاورمیانه به دلیل موقعیت استراتژیک جغرافیایی و برخورداری برخی از آنها از درآمدهای صادرات و فروش نفت، اهمیت ویژه ای برای تحقیق برخوردار شده است.

نتایج، بیانگر این است که تفاوت معناداری بین تأثیر متقابل حکمرانی و توسعه در کشورهای خاورمیانه صادرکننده نفت با کشورهای غیرخاورمیانه صادرکننده نفت وجود دارد. در هر دو گروه از کشورها، تأثیر توسعه بر حکمرانی به مراتب بیش از تأثیر حکمرانی بر توسعه می باشد. به رغم تشابه در عامل صادرات نفت، عامل محیط جغرافیایی دربردارنده تشابهات فرهنگی و دین و برخی از آداب و رسوم، بر تأثیر متقابل حکمرانی و توسعه مؤثر، و ضریب برآوردی تأثیر توسعه بر حکمرانی در هر دو گروه، بیش از ضریب برآوردی تأثیر حکمرانی بر توسعه است. لذا توجه به توسعه، علاوه بر بهبود شاخص های آن، شرایط حکمرانی را ارتقا داده و باعث بهبود عملکرد می شود. این تأثیر از طریق حکمرانی نیز وجود دارد؛ ولی سرعت تغییر از طرف توسعه، بیشتر است.



[۱]. Wald

[۲]. Kruskal _Wallis

[۳]. LSD (Least Significant Difference)
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Analysis of Interaction between Governance and Development in Oil-Exporting Countries

نویسندگان English

mohammad hosein fatehi dabanlou 1
kambiz hojabr kiani 2
abbas memar nejad 3
mohsen mehrara 4
1 Department of economics, Science And Research Branch, Islamic Azad University
2 Science and Research Branch , Islamic Azad University
3 Science and Research Branch , Islamic Azad University
4 University of TEHRAN
چکیده English

This research aims to analyze interaction between governance and development in oil- exporting countries. In this regard, the interactions are compared in two groups of countries, namely oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and oil-exporting countries beyond the Middle East. The function of governance has become one of the fundamental issues, and the Middle East countries are particularly important for research because of their geographic location and oil revenues. In this paper, three-stage least squares method is used to estimate the model based on the World Bank data during 1996-2014, and Wald, Kruskal-Wallis, and Least Significant Difference (LSD) tests are used to check the research hypotheses. The results indicate a significant difference in interaction between governance and development among oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and those beyond the Middle East. In both groups of the countries, effect of development on governance was greater than that of the governance on development. Despite the similarity in oil exports, geographic environment (i.e. similarities in culture, religion, and some of customs) affects the interaction between governance and development. As such, paying adequate attention to the development not only improves its indices, but also enhances situation of the governance and hence improves their performance. This is also the case for the governance, but the rate of changes fueled by the development is higher.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Governance
Development
Oil-Exporting Countries
Middle East
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