نوع مقاله : پژوهشی اصیل
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
This paper investigates the asymmetric effects of oil production and CO₂ emissions shocks on Iran's economic growth over 1974–2023 using a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach, which separates positive and negative shocks within a unified dynamic framework. Given Iran's structural oil dependence and energy-intensive production, examining these effects is essential. The bounds test confirms a long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. The results indicate that the negative oil production shock (0.55) exerts a stronger effect on growth than the positive shock (0.45), confirming asymmetric vulnerability. More strikingly, the negative CO₂ emission shock (2.54) has a far greater impact than the positive shock (0.49), revealing the economy's deep structural dependence on carbon-intensive activities. Gross fixed capital formation and arable land show positive long-run effects, while foreign direct investment is insignificant. The Wald test confirms long-run asymmetry for both oil production and CO₂ emissions, and short-run asymmetry for CO₂ emissions. Based on these findings, gradual environmental policies combined with the adoption of clean technologies and the strengthening of domestic investment and the agricultural sector are recommended.
کلیدواژهها English
