Abstract
Food security, as one of the most fundamental dimensions of sustainable development, is a multidimensional concept whose accurate assessment at the national level requires the use of composite and reliable indicators. In this regard, the Global Food Security Index (GFSI), by covering the four main dimensions of food security and relying on a set of structural and performance-based sub-indicators, provides an appropriate framework for analyzing and comparing countries. The present study aims to fill the existing information gap regarding Iran’s status in this index by estimating the GFSI for the country over the period 2012–2023. To this end, the required data were collected from credible domestic and international sources and analyzed based on the standard methodology of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). The findings show that Iran’s food security followed a fluctuating yet fragile pattern during the period under review. After a marked decline in 2013 (49.6), it reached its highest level in 2016 (61.6), but subsequently entered a downward path, particularly after the reimposition of sanctions, falling to 56.5 in 2023. The results indicate that affordability is the main source of vulnerability, while quality and safety represent a relative strength. In contrast, sustainability and resilience show the weakest performance, highlighting Iran’s vulnerability to water scarcity and climate change.
Purpose/Aims:
The primary purpose of this research is to comprehensively evaluate and estimate the level of food security in Iran by employing the four-dimensional approach of the Global Food Security Index (GFSI). Spanning a crucial eleven-year period from 2012 to 2023, the study aims to address and bridge the significant information gap regarding Iran’s precise standing within this globally recognized comparative index. Therefore, this research systematically calculates the GFSI for Iran, providing a detailed temporal analysis of its trajectory. By doing so, the study endeavors to illuminate underlying structural and performance-based vulnerabilities within the national food system. Furthermore, the objective is not merely to assign a static score but to dynamically track how macroeconomic shocks, geopolitical shifts, and internal policy changes have impacted food security, creating a foundational baseline for future strategic national planning.
Methodology & Framework:
To achieve its precise analytical objectives, this research adopts the standardized methodology developed by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) for calculating the GFSI. The conceptual framework is structurally grounded in the four primary dimensions of the GFSI: affordability, availability, quality and safety, and sustainability. This multidimensional framework ensures that food security is evaluated through a holistic spectrum of indicators rather than a narrow lens. The data collection process involved the meticulous aggregation of quantitative data from highly credible domestic statistical centers and recognized international databases. By synthesizing these diverse streams, the methodology constructs a composite index that accurately mirrors the complex realities of the Iranian food supply chain. This allows for a multifaceted evaluation where each dimension is weighted and analyzed systematically, ensuring the calculated indices are empirically sound and comparable to international standards.
Findings:
The empirical findings reveal a distinctly fluctuating and inherently fragile trajectory for Iran’s food security over the 2012–2023 timeline. The calculated GFSI scores illustrate significant volatility, beginning at a baseline of 47.7 in 2012, dropping to 49.6 in 2013, and later culminating in a peak score of 61.6 in 2016 due to temporary macroeconomic stabilization. However, subsequent years, especially following the reinstatement of international sanctions, triggered a definitive downward trend, dragging the index to 56.5 by 2023. A detailed dimensional breakdown indicates that affordability emerges as the most critical vulnerability, severely hampered by persistent food inflation and currency shocks that heavily erode household purchasing power. Concurrently, the food availability dimension demonstrated unstable fluctuations ranging from 47.7 to 57.8, notably impacted by farmers’ declining access to essential financial resources. The sustainability and resilience dimension recorded the absolute weakest overall performance, highlighting an acute susceptibility to ongoing water crises, severe climate change impacts, and structural political instability. Conversely, the quality and safety dimension maintained a relatively optimal standing, significantly bolstered by strong regulatory systems and mandatory food labeling policies implemented since 2016.
Discussion:
The discussion emphasizes that relying on single-dimensional metrics is insufficient for capturing the complex reality of food security, as different indicator selections can frequently yield contradictory results. Consequently, employing a composite framework like the Global Food Security Index (GFSI) is strongly advocated. This multidimensional model effectively integrates emerging systemic challenges, such as severe climate change, while enabling reliable international benchmarking and accurate country rankings. A major analytical contribution discussed is the study’s novel approach to providing a continuous, dynamic comparison of Iran’s overall performance against global averages, developing nations, and developed countries. This bridges a critical literature gap, since prior structural assessments of Iran largely concluded in 2012. The analysis contextualizes the specific dimensional findings, attributing availability shortcomings to persistent import dependencies and affordability vulnerabilities to severe inflation, whereas worsening droughts drastically exacerbate sustainability risks. However, the study also acknowledges crucial methodological limitations inherent in composite indexing. Specifically, an aggregated national score can inadvertently obscure severe and complex intra-country regional inequalities, and the subjective weighting of disparate variables remains a subject of ongoing academic debate, meaning no single indicator can ever be entirely perfect.
Conclusion & Implications:
In conclusion, this research determines that Iran’s current food security status is highly vulnerable and structurally precarious, necessitating immediate and comprehensive policy interventions. The consecutive declines in the composite index, driven by economic instability and environmental degradation, underline an urgent need for a paradigm shift in resource management. The practical implications strongly suggest that policymakers must urgently prioritize the containment of rampant food inflation, which remains the primary barrier to affordability. Additionally, there is a critical requirement for implementing highly targeted social support mechanisms designed to protect vulnerable demographics from systemic nutritional deprivation. Crucially, glaring deficiencies in environmental resilience demand an immediate redirection of investments toward sustainable, climate-smart agricultural technologies and modern water management infrastructures. By addressing economic affordability, targeted welfare, and environmental sustainability, Iran can mitigate its structural vulnerabilities and progressively secure a stable food system for its population.