پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

سنجش چندبعدی آسیب‌پذیری در برابر نفرین منابع با استفاده از شاخص RCVI: شواهدی از همگرایی باشگاهی در ۵۴ کشور (2010-2021)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی اصیل

نویسندگان
امید عدالتی 1
نرگس صالح‌نیا 2
سید محمد سیدی 3
1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران
2 دانشیار اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران
3 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران
10.48311/ecor.2025.116593.1004
چکیده
پدیده «نفرین منابع» از مباحث کلیدی اقتصاد انرژی است، زیرا اتکای بیش از حد به منابع طبیعی به‌جای آنکه موتور توسعه باشد، اغلب به رانت‌جویی، ضعف نهادی، وابستگی به صادرات خام و نبود تنوع اقتصادی منجر می‌شود. بسیاری از مطالعات گذشته، تنها بر شاخص‌های اقتصادی تمرکز داشته‌اند و ابعاد نهادی و ساختاری را نادیده گرفته‌اند. بر این اساس، در پژوهش حاضر، با استفاده از شاخص چندبعدی آسیب‌پذیری در برابر نفرین منابع ( RCVI( که سه بُعد اقتصادی، نهادی و ساختاری را دربر می‌گیرد، وضعیت ۵۴ کشور طی دوره ۲۰۱۰ تا ۲۰۲۱ بررسی، و ابتدا شاخص RCVI برای کشورها محاسبه و سپس با روش همگرایی باشگاهی، مسیرهای پویای آن‌ها تحلیل شده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد، همگرایی کلی میان همه کشورها وجود ندارد و آن‌ها در قالب هفت باشگاه با الگوهای همگرا یا واگرا دسته‌بندی می‌شوند. کشورهایی با نهادهای کارآمد، شفافیت بالا و سیاست‌های پایدار توانسته‌اند منابع طبیعی را به فرصت تبدیل کنند، در حالی که کشورهایی با ضعف نهادی، فساد و وابستگی به رانت منابع، در باشگاه‌های واگرا باقی مانده‌اند. در مجموع، نتایج پژوهش بر اهمیت کیفیت نهادها، حکمرانی مطلوب و تنوع‌بخشی اقتصادی تأکید می‌کند و نشان می‌دهد که شاخص‌های چندبعدی مانندRCVI می تواند تصویری جامع‌تر از پدیده نفرین منابع ارائه دهند و ابزاری برای سیاست‌گذاران در کاهش آسیب‌پذیری و بهره‌گیری پایدار از منابع طبیعی باشند.


کلیدواژه‌ها
توسعه پایدار
کیفیت نهادها
نفرین منابع
همگرایی باشگاهی
شاخص آسیب‌پذیری نسبت به نفرین منابع
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

A Multidimensional Assessment of Resource-Curse Vulnerability Using the RCVI: Evidence from Club Convergence Across 54 Countries, 2010–2021

نویسندگان English

omid edalati 1
narges salehnia 2
seyed mohammad seyedi 3
1 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences,Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences,Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
چکیده English

Abstract
The “resource curse” remains a central concern in energy economics, as excessive reliance on natural resources frequently results not in sustainable development but in rent-seeking behavior, institutional fragility, export concentration in primary commodities, and limited economic diversification. Prior research has predominantly emphasized economic indicators while insufficiently addressing institutional and structural dimensions. This study analyzes 54 countries over the period 2010–2021 using a multidimensional Resource Curse Vulnerability Index (RCVI) that integrates economic, institutional, and structural components. The RCVI is first calculated for each country and subsequently examined through the Phillips–Sul club convergence framework to identify dynamic patterns. The results reveal the absence of overall convergence across the full sample. Instead, countries cluster into seven distinct clubs characterized by convergent or divergent trajectories. Economies with strong institutions, high transparency, and stable policy environments demonstrate the capacity to transform resource wealth into developmental opportunities, whereas countries marked by institutional weakness, corruption, and rent dependence persist within divergent or high-vulnerability clubs. These findings underscore the central role of institutional quality, effective governance, and economic diversification. They further demonstrate that multidimensional measures such as the RCVI offer a more comprehensive perspective on resource-curse vulnerability and provide policymakers with a practical instrument for reducing risk and promoting the sustainable management of natural resources
Purpose/Aims:
This study seeks to update and refine a multidimensional measure of resource-curse vulnerability for resource-dependent economies, quantify cross-country heterogeneity that remains obscured in single-indicator approaches, and determine whether countries follow a common long-run vulnerability trajectory or instead sort into multiple clubs with distinct dynamic paths. An additional objective is to translate these dynamic configurations into a policy-relevant typology capable of assisting governments in diagnosing whether their economies are converging toward resilience or toward a persistent high-risk equilibrium.
Methodology & Framework:
The empirical analysis covers 54 countries over the period 2010–2021, yielding 648 country-year observations. Countries were selected on the basis that their annual natural-resource rents exceed a minimum threshold, ensuring that resource dependence is macroeconomically salient. The RCVI is constructed from nine components encompassing governance quality, transparency, economic performance, human development, state fragility, and resource-rent intensity. Each component is normalized to a 0–1 scale. Indicators with positive normative implications are scaled such that higher values reflect more favorable conditions, whereas negatively oriented indicators are transformed so that lower values correspond to improved conditions. The normalized components are aggregated into a composite resilience score, which is subsequently converted into a vulnerability index.
Dynamic behavior is evaluated in three steps. First, an overall log-t test is conducted to assess convergence across the full panel. Second, a club-formation algorithm identifies groups of countries with similar transitional dynamics. Third, a club-merging procedure consolidates initially fragmented clusters into statistically coherent clubs where appropriate.
Findings:
Descriptive statistics indicate moderate dispersion with pronounced tails. The RCVI exhibits a mean of 0.444 and a median of 0.469 (standard deviation = 0.170), with values ranging from 0.040 to 0.812. The first, second, and third quartiles are 0.381, 0.469, and 0.550, respectively.
The overall convergence test decisively rejects the hypothesis of a single common trajectory (t = −64.9734), confirming the existence of multiple long-run regimes. The club identification procedure initially yields ten groups; following the merging process, the final structure comprises seven clubs and a residual set of countries without stable club affiliation.
The final club composition is as follows:
Club 1: Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of Congo, Iran, Mozambique, Myanmar, Sudan.
Club 2: Cameroon, Nigeria.
Club 3: Azerbaijan, Bolivia, Brazil, Gabon, Kuwait, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia, Ukraine.
Club 4: Bahrain, Bangladesh, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Oman, Peru, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia.
Club 5: Argentina, China, Malaysia, Vietnam.
Club 6: Italy, Poland, Romania, United Arab Emirates, United States.
Club 7: Canada, Germany.
Nine countries remain unclassified: Algeria, Australia, Chad, Denmark, Iraq, the Netherlands, Norway, Thailand, and Uzbekistan.
Importantly, convergence across clubs does not imply convergence toward similar vulnerability levels. Certain high-risk clubs exhibit convergence toward a persistent vulnerable equilibrium rather than toward sustained risk reduction.
Discussion:
The findings support a multi-equilibrium interpretation of the resource curse. Resource-rich countries may follow fundamentally different long-run trajectories depending on how institutional capacity, transparency, and structural conditions interact with resource dependence. Club membership, therefore, reflects not merely a cross-sectional ranking but the direction, stability, and persistence of vulnerability dynamics over time.
A critical nuance emerges from the distinction between statistical and normative convergence. Convergence does not inherently signify improvement; countries may converge because shared structural weaknesses persist, reinforcing a high-vulnerability regime. Conversely, low-vulnerability clubs are consistent with institutional environments characterized by predictable rules, accountability, and effective constraints on rent-seeking behavior, enabling resource revenues to be directed toward diversification and human development.
The unclassified group indicates unstable or idiosyncratic trajectories that defy stable clustering. For these countries, individualized diagnostic analysis may be more appropriate than benchmarking against peer groups.
Conclusion & Implications:
The evidence demonstrates that resource-dependent economies do not gravitate toward a universal vulnerability equilibrium. Instead, they cluster into distinct dynamic regimes, and in some cases exhibit no stable long-run pattern.
From a policy perspective, uniform prescriptions are unlikely to be effective. High-vulnerability clubs highlight the need to strengthen rule-based governance, enhance transparency and public oversight, limit discretionary allocation of resource rents, and build institutional safeguards that reduce fragility and political instability. Mid-vulnerability clubs confront the challenge of preventing regression; governance reforms must be complemented by strategies that reduce fiscal and export dependence on primary commodities. Low-vulnerability clubs illustrate that resilience is compatible with resource wealth when rents are managed through stable institutional frameworks and invested in long-term capability development.
Methodologically, integrating a multidimensional index with a dynamic club-convergence framework yields a robust monitoring instrument capable of detecting changes in vulnerability trajectories rather than merely static levels. Future research may extend the analysis beyond 2021, evaluate alternative weighting and aggregation schemes, and examine the relationship between club membership and outcomes such as growth volatility and economic diversification.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Club Convergence
Institutional Quality
Resource.Curse Vulnerability Index
Resource Curse
Sustainable Development
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