Economic Research and Perspectives

Economic Research and Perspectives

The Impact of Political and Economic Crises on Migration Patterns in the Middle East: A Vector Autoregression Analysis

Document Type : Original Research

Authors
Masoud Homayounifar 1
Kimia Khoshsima shahraki 2
Sajjad Namvar 3
Sepehr Maghsoudi 4
1 Associate Professor in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2 Master’s Student in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
3 PhD Student in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
4 Master of Science in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
10.48311/ecor.2026.28403
Abstract
Abstract
Migration has become a critical global phenomenon, with more than 281 million international migrants recorded in 2023, driven by complex push–pull factors including political instability, economic hardship, and conflict. The Middle East has experienced particularly intense emigration flows, often described as a “migrant tsunami,” resulting in substantial losses of human capital amid heightened geopolitical competition. This study focuses on Iran, Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon—countries facing distinct yet interconnected political and economic crises. Political risks, such as governance instability, conflict, and sanctions, alongside economic risks including inflation, unemployment, and fiscal imbalances, are examined as key drivers of migration. Using a dynamic empirical framework, the study explores the interrelationships among migration, economic performance, and political and economic risks. The analysis reveals strong bidirectional linkages, highlighting migration as both a consequence of and a contributing factor to macroeconomic and political instability. The findings underscore the central role of economic risk in shaping migration dynamics and emphasize the need for integrated policy responses to manage migration pressures and promote regional stability.

Purpose/Aims:
The primary aim of this study is to examine the impact of political and economic crises on migration patterns in selected Middle Eastern countries. Specifically, the research investigates how political risks—including instability, governance weaknesses, and sanctions—as well as economic risks such as inflation, unemployment, and fiscal imbalances influence migration flows. By focusing on Iran, Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon over the period 2000–2020, the study seeks to identify the dynamic interactions among migration, economic growth, and risk factors. An additional objective is to assess whether migration itself feeds back into macroeconomic performance and political stability. Through this approach, the study aims to provide evidence-based insights that can inform policy interventions designed to address the root causes of migration in crisis-prone regions.
Methodology & Framework:
The study employs annual panel data covering the period 2000–2020, sourced from the World Bank, the PRS Group, and Our World in Data. A Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model is applied using STATA to capture the dynamic and endogenous relationships among migration, gross domestic product (GDP), political risk, and economic risk. Political risk is proxied by governance and corruption indicators, while economic risk is measured using inflation and fiscal balance variables. The PVAR framework allows for both temporal dynamics and cross-country heterogeneity. Impulse response functions are used to trace the effects of shocks to political and economic risks on migration, while variance decomposition is employed to quantify the relative contribution of each variable to fluctuations in migration.
Findings:
The descriptive statistics indicate relatively stable levels of political risk and moderate fluctuations in economic risk across the sample countries. Migration and GDP exhibit substantial variability over time. Granger causality tests confirm the existence of bidirectional relationships between migration and both political and economic risks, suggesting mutual reinforcement effects. Impulse response analysis shows that shocks to economic risk lead to persistent increases in migration, whereas the impact of political risk shocks diminishes after several periods. GDP growth initially stimulates migration but stabilizes in the medium term. Variance decomposition results reveal that economic risk accounts for the largest share of migration variability, ranging from 46% to 77%, highlighting its dominant role in shaping migration dynamics.
Discussion:
The results demonstrate strong interdependence among migration, economic conditions, and political stability in the Middle East. Migration emerges not only as a response to economic and political crises but also as a factor influencing macroeconomic performance and stability. Persistent economic instability and conflict amplify migration pressures, while improvements in GDP provide only temporary relief. The findings suggest that neglecting economic risk factors may undermine efforts to manage migration flows. Moreover, the feedback effects of migration on employment, investment, and fiscal conditions underscore the complexity of migration dynamics in crisis-affected economies.
Conclusion & Implications:
The study concludes that economic risk is the most significant driver of migration in the selected Middle Eastern countries, while political instability further exacerbates migration pressures. Effective migration management requires policies that simultaneously address economic vulnerabilities, such as unemployment and inflation, and enhance political stability and governance. Integrated policy frameworks that balance humanitarian considerations with macroeconomic resilience are essential. By addressing the interconnected nature of migration, economic performance, and political risk, policymakers can foster sustainable growth, attract investment, and promote social and economic stability in conflict-prone regions.
Keywords
Economic Risk
Migration
Political Risk
Vector.Autoregression Method
Subjects
References
Abdou, L. H. (2021). ‘Push or pull’? Framing immigration in times of crisis in the European Union and the United States. In Crisis and Politicisation (pp. 34-49). Routledge.‏
Acik, A. C., Trott, P., & Cinar, E. (2022). Risk governance approach to migration: A viable alternative to precautionary management. Journal of Risk Research, 25(4), 468-487.‏
Allen, W. L., Ruiz, I., & Vargas-Silva, C. (2024). Policy preferences in response to large forced migration inflows. World Development, 174, 106462.‏ 
Baláž, V., & Valuš, L. (2020). Migration, risk tolerance and life satisfaction: Evidence from a large-scale survey. Journal of Risk Research, 23(12), 1603-1619.‏ 
Balduzzi, P., Brancati, E., Brianti, M., & Schiantarelli, F. (2023). Political risk, Populism and the economy. The Economic Journal, 133(653), 1677-1704.‏ 
Barker, N., Davis, C. A., López-Peña, P., Mitchell, H., Mobarak, A. M., Naguib, K., ..., & Vernot, C. (2023). Migration and resilience during a global crisis. European Economic Review, 158, 104524.‏ 
Becker, C. M., Musabek, E. N., Seitenova, A. G. S., & Urzhumova, D. S. (2005). The migration response to economic shock: Lessons from Kazakhstan. Journal of Comparative Economics, 33(1), 107-132.‏ 
Bermudez, A., & Oso, L. (2020). Recent trends in intra-EU mobilities: The articulation between migration, social protection, gender and citizenship systems. Ethnic and Racial Studies, 43(14), 2513-2530.‏ 
Beyond economic migration. (2022). In New York University Press eBooks. https://doi.org/10.18574/nyu/9781479818570.001.0001
Bocquého, G., Deschamps, M., Helstroffer, J., Jacob, J., & Joxhe, M. (2023). Modelling refugee migration under cognitive biases: Experimental evidence and policy. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 103, 101969.‏
Cham, O. N., & Adam, I. (2023). The politicization and framing of migration in West Africa: Transition to democracy as a game changer?. Territory, Politics, Governance, 11(4), 638-657.‏
Chang, Y. H., & Huang, M. H. (2023). Analysis of factors affecting scientific migration move and distance by academic age, migrant type, and country: Migrant researchers in the field of business and management. Journal of Informetrics, 17(1), 101371.‏
Conduah, A. (2023). Migration and social networks. Alternation, 41. https://doi.org/10.29086/2519-5476/2023/sp41a14
Davis, M. A., Fisher, J. D., & Veracierto, M. (2021). Migration and urban economic dynamics. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 133, 104234.‏
Dekker, R., & Engbersen, G. (2014). How social media transform migrant networks and facilitate migration. Global Networks-a Journal of Transnational Affairs, 64(4), 401-418.
https://doi.org/10.1111/GLOB.12040
Dibeh, G., Fakih, A., & Marrouch, W. (2017). Decision to emigrate amongst the youth in Lebanon. Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal.
https://doi.org/10.1111/IMIG.12347.
Dieppe, A., Legrand, R., & Van Roye, B. (2016). The BEAR toolbox.
Domingo, A. (2015). Migration as a global risk: The world economic forum and neoliberal discourse on demography. Quetelet Journal, 3(1), 97-117.‏
Doraï, K. (2018). Conflict and migration in the Middle East: Syrian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon. 113-126. https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01859269
Doraï, K., & Amer, I. (2023). Chapter 9: Lebanese migration policy since 2011 and its role in the Syrian refugee movement. In Migration Patterns Across the Mediterranean. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing. Retrieved Apr 26, 2025, from 
https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800887350.00018
Doraï, K., & Amer, I. (2023). Lebanese migration policy since 2011 and its role in the Syrian refugee movement. In Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks (pp. 161-178).
https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800887350.00018
Doraï, K., & Roussel, C. (2015). Crises des etats au Moyen-Orient. Conflits, circulations et migrations forcées. 113-124. https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01529347
Dylong, P., & Uebelmesser, S. (2024). Biased beliefs about immigration and economic concerns: Evidence from representative experiments. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 217, 453-482.‏
Fink, S. (2024). Party politics and the shaping of migration policy in the Council of Ministers. European Policy Analysis.‏
Geddes, A., & Pettrachin, A. (2020). Italian migration policy and politics: Exacerbating paradoxes. Contemporary Italian Politics, 12(2), 227-242.‏
Ghosh, B. (2013). Effects of Changes in the Migration Pattern: Discerning Perils and Pitfalls (pp. 107-162). Palgrave Macmillan, London.
https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137291301_5
Góis, P., & Marques, J. C. (2021). Portuguese intra-EU migration. The dynamics of an ongoing migration process. In New Trends in Intra-European Union Mobilities (pp. 39-59). Routledge.‏
Grebeniyk, A., Aleshkovski, I., & Maksimova, A. (2021). The impact of labor migration on human capital development. Migraciones Internacionales, 12, 0. https://doi.org/10.33679/rmi.v1i1.2190
Gutmann, J., Langer, P., & Neuenkirch, M. (2024). International Sanctions and Emigration. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4696410
Hall, K., Phillimore, J., Grzymala-Kazlowska, A., Vershinina, N., Ögtem-Young, Ö., & Harris, C. (2022). Migration uncertainty in the context of Brexit: Resource conservation tactics. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 48(1), 173-191.‏
Han, Q., Kumar, R., & Kumar, A. (2024). Climate change and human migration: Perspectives for environmentally sustainable societies. Journal of Geochemical Exploration, 256, 107352.‏
Hatton, T. J. (2014). The economics of international migration: A short history of the debate. Labour Economics, 30, 43-50.‏
Jäger, P., Beyer, K., & Claassen, K. (2022). Obesity in the context of migration and socio-economic risk factors-a multivariate epidemiologic analysis. Annals of Epidemiology, 76, 108-113.‏
Joppke, a. (2024). From asylum to labour: Track change in German migration policy. West European Politics, 47(4), 813-839.‏
Joppke, b. (2024). Neoliberal nationalism and immigration policy. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 1-20.‏
Kayran, E. N. (2022). Labour market institutions and immigration policy attitudes: The moderated impact of economic vulnerability. Nations and Nationalism, 28(3), 1097-1116.‏
Khedr, M., & Odote, P. (2024). Iran's foreign policy on security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and its impact on Egypt's stability. The International Journal of Humanities & Social Studies.
https://doi.org/10.24940/theijhss/2024/v12/i5/hs2405-010.
Koubi, V., Spilker, G., Schaffer, L., & Böhmelt, T. (2016). The role of environmental perceptions in migration decision-making: Evidence from both migrants and non-migrants in five developing countries. Population and Environment, 38, 134-163. 
https://doi.org/10.1007/S11111-016-0258-7
Laaker, D. (2024). Economic shocks and the development of immigration attitudes. British Journal of Political Science, 54(1), 220-240.‏
Lebanon’s economic issues will remain unaddressed. (2024). Emerald Expert Briefings.
https://doi.org/10.1108/oxan-es288506
Macdonald, D., & Cornacchione, T. (2023). Political trust and support for immigration in the European mass public. Political Behavior, 45(2), 491-510.‏
Martin, P. L. (2009). Recession and migration: A new era for labor migration?. International Migration Review, 43(3), 671-691
https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1747-7379.2009.00781.X
McLennan, M. (2022). The Global Risks Report 2022. 17th. edition. Cologny, Switzerland: World Economic Forum.
Mulska, O. (2021). Міграційні ризики та загрози стабільного розвитку національної економіки як стратегічні об’єкти політики регулювання. Economic Analysis, 31(2), 34-43.
https://doi.org/10.35774/ECONA2021.02.034
Pan, X., & Sun, C. (2024). Internal migration, remittances and economic development. Journal of International Economics, 147, 103845.‏
Pastore, F. (2023). The problematic decentring of migration policy studies. Territory, Politics, Governance, 11(4), 770-775.‏
Polacko, M., Graefe, P., & Kiss, S. (2024). Subjective economic insecurity and attitudes toward immigration and feminists among voters on the Right in Canada. Social Science Quarterly. ‏
Poole, A. (2022). Migration as conflict risk-management: Testing the new economics of labour migration as a framework for understanding refugee decision-making. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 48(15), 3725-3742.‏
Poot, J., Alimi, O., Cameron, M. P., & Maré, D. C. (2016). The gravity model of migration: The successful comeback of an ageing superstar in regional science.‏
Prati, G., Cazcarro, I., & Hazra, S. (2022). Gender dimensions of the migration, sustainability and care nexus: The case study of the Mahanadi delta, India. Current Research in Environmental Sustainability, 4, 100104.‏
Rezaei, Maryam, Sadeghi, Rasul. (2021). The Desire for Migration: The Inclination of Iranians to Migrate and Its Determining Factors. Contemporary Sociological Research (Scientific-Research), 10(18), 35-62.
doi: 10.22084/csr.2021.21216.1772. [In Persian]
Romina, Ibrahim, Alavi Shushtari, Sayyida Zahra, Hafezniya. (2020). Political reflections of international migrations from the Middle East to Europe. International Journal of Geopolitics, 16(59), 29-51. [In Persian]
Sarı, Ö., & Meydan Uygur, S. (2024). A research on the relationship between tourism and migration. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Insights, 7(1), 523-540.‏
Sarkin, J. J., & Capazorio, R. C. (2022). The Syrian conflict as a test case for the limits of the international community and international law: Global politics and state sovereignty versus human rights protection. Human Rights Quarterly, 44(3), 476-513.
https://doi.org/10.1353/hrq.2022.0024
Smets, K., Leurs, K., Georgiou, M., Witteborn, S., & Gajjala, R. (2020). The SAGE Handbook of Media and Migration. SAGE Publications Ltd.
https://doi.org/10.4135/9781526476982
Talleraas, C. (2024). The politics of migration policy implementation in Ghana. Governance.‏
Tarasyev, A. A., Agarkov, G. A., Rovenskaya, E. A., & Cao, G. Y. (2019, December). Dynamic modeling of age-structured migration flows. In AIP Conference Proceedings (Vol. 2186, No. 1). AIP Publishing.
Wang, K., Wang, Y., & Chang, C. (2020). The impact of air quality on population migration. 15, 23-32. 
https://doi.org/10.35784/PE.2020.2.03
Zaiceva, A., & Zimmermann, K. F. (2016). Migration and the demographic shift. In Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging (Vol. 1, pp. 119-177). North-Holland.
Zaitsev, A., Rodionov, D. G., Khudaykulov, S., Tuxliev, B., Stetsyunic, Y., Konnikov, E., & Dmitriev, N. (2023). Modeling the impact of the quality of the political and economic environment on population migration. 139-156.
https://doi.org/10.1145/3644713.3644732
Zharkov, V. P., Malakhov, V., Simon, M., & Letnyakov, D. (2016). The phenomenon of global migration: Political and economic aspect. Research Papers in Economics. https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:rnp:wpaper:16611