نوع مقاله : پژوهشی اصیل
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Abstract
Migration has become a critical global phenomenon, with more than 281 million international migrants recorded in 2023, driven by complex push–pull factors including political instability, economic hardship, and conflict. The Middle East has experienced particularly intense emigration flows, often described as a “migrant tsunami,” resulting in substantial losses of human capital amid heightened geopolitical competition. This study focuses on Iran, Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon—countries facing distinct yet interconnected political and economic crises. Political risks, such as governance instability, conflict, and sanctions, alongside economic risks including inflation, unemployment, and fiscal imbalances, are examined as key drivers of migration. Using a dynamic empirical framework, the study explores the interrelationships among migration, economic performance, and political and economic risks. The analysis reveals strong bidirectional linkages, highlighting migration as both a consequence of and a contributing factor to macroeconomic and political instability. The findings underscore the central role of economic risk in shaping migration dynamics and emphasize the need for integrated policy responses to manage migration pressures and promote regional stability.
Purpose/Aims:
The primary aim of this study is to examine the impact of political and economic crises on migration patterns in selected Middle Eastern countries. Specifically, the research investigates how political risks—including instability, governance weaknesses, and sanctions—as well as economic risks such as inflation, unemployment, and fiscal imbalances influence migration flows. By focusing on Iran, Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon over the period 2000–2020, the study seeks to identify the dynamic interactions among migration, economic growth, and risk factors. An additional objective is to assess whether migration itself feeds back into macroeconomic performance and political stability. Through this approach, the study aims to provide evidence-based insights that can inform policy interventions designed to address the root causes of migration in crisis-prone regions.
Methodology & Framework:
The study employs annual panel data covering the period 2000–2020, sourced from the World Bank, the PRS Group, and Our World in Data. A Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model is applied using STATA to capture the dynamic and endogenous relationships among migration, gross domestic product (GDP), political risk, and economic risk. Political risk is proxied by governance and corruption indicators, while economic risk is measured using inflation and fiscal balance variables. The PVAR framework allows for both temporal dynamics and cross-country heterogeneity. Impulse response functions are used to trace the effects of shocks to political and economic risks on migration, while variance decomposition is employed to quantify the relative contribution of each variable to fluctuations in migration.
Findings:
The descriptive statistics indicate relatively stable levels of political risk and moderate fluctuations in economic risk across the sample countries. Migration and GDP exhibit substantial variability over time. Granger causality tests confirm the existence of bidirectional relationships between migration and both political and economic risks, suggesting mutual reinforcement effects. Impulse response analysis shows that shocks to economic risk lead to persistent increases in migration, whereas the impact of political risk shocks diminishes after several periods. GDP growth initially stimulates migration but stabilizes in the medium term. Variance decomposition results reveal that economic risk accounts for the largest share of migration variability, ranging from 46% to 77%, highlighting its dominant role in shaping migration dynamics.
Discussion:
The results demonstrate strong interdependence among migration, economic conditions, and political stability in the Middle East. Migration emerges not only as a response to economic and political crises but also as a factor influencing macroeconomic performance and stability. Persistent economic instability and conflict amplify migration pressures, while improvements in GDP provide only temporary relief. The findings suggest that neglecting economic risk factors may undermine efforts to manage migration flows. Moreover, the feedback effects of migration on employment, investment, and fiscal conditions underscore the complexity of migration dynamics in crisis-affected economies.
Conclusion & Implications:
The study concludes that economic risk is the most significant driver of migration in the selected Middle Eastern countries, while political instability further exacerbates migration pressures. Effective migration management requires policies that simultaneously address economic vulnerabilities, such as unemployment and inflation, and enhance political stability and governance. Integrated policy frameworks that balance humanitarian considerations with macroeconomic resilience are essential. By addressing the interconnected nature of migration, economic performance, and political risk, policymakers can foster sustainable growth, attract investment, and promote social and economic stability in conflict-prone regions.
کلیدواژهها English
