پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

بررسی نقش وفور منابع طبیعی بر رشد اقتصادی: مطالعه موردی کشورهای صادرکننده مواد معدنی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
رضا محسنی 1
فاضل مریدی فریمانی 1
سارینا خانلرخانی 2
1 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
10.48311/ecor.2025.13631
چکیده
منابع طبیعی، یکی از مهم‌ترین منابع تولید هر کشور محسوب می­گردد. براساس نظریات رشد و توسعه و همچنین نظریات تجارت بین­الملل، این منابع می­تواند مزیت نسبی برای یک اقتصاد به‎همراه داشته باشد. درآمدهای حاصل از وفور منابع طبیعی، می‌تواند برای یک کشور ایجاد ثروت نموده و پیشرفت اقتصادی و افزایش رفاه و کاهش فقر را به‎دنبال داشته باشد. دراین‎رابطه، منابع معدنی عاملی مهم در تسریع سرمایه­گذاری و به‎دنبال آن، رشد اقتصادی‌اند؛ اما برخی مشاهدات تجربی، عکس این ادعا را نشان می­دهند. در حقیقت بسیاری از کشورهای دارای وفور منابع طبیعی از جمله منابع معدنی، نتوانسته­اند از فرصت ایجاد شده ناشی از درآمدهای حاصل از این منابع، منافع لازم را برای اقتصاد کسب کنند. براین‎اساس در مقاله حاضر، این موضوع  با استفاده از الگوهای رشد برای اقتصاد ایران و کشورهای منتخب دارای وفور منابع معدنی طی دوره زمانی 2000 تا 2020 مورد بررسی قرار می­گیرد؛ به‎طوری‎که اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم وفور منابع طبیعی، از کانال انباشت سرمایه فیزیکی، انباشت هزینه تحقیق و توسعه در زمینه تکنولوژی، نیروی­کار، توسعه مالی و آزادی اقتصادی بر رشد اقتصادی برای کشورهای منتخب در 3 گروه کشورها که گروه اول، دارای منابع معدنی و نفتی، گروه دوم، دارای منابع معدنی و گروه سوم، دارای منابع نفتی‎اند، پرداخته شده است. نتایج، حاکی از آن است که وفور منابع طبیعی برای گروه کشور­های اول و دوم، معنی­دار بوده و اثر قابل توجهی دارد، اما برای گروه کشورهای سوم که شامل ایران نیز می­باشد، مورد تأیید قرار نگرفت.
کلیدواژه‌ها
رشد اقتصادی، نفرین منابع، وفور منابع معدنی، داده­
؛ ؛ های پانل

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth in Mineral Exporting Countries

نویسندگان English

Reza Mohseni 1
Fazel Moridi Farimani 1
Sarina Khanlarkhani 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 M.A. in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Aim and Introduction
Many theories and models of economic growth have identified capital as one of the most important drivers and determinants of economic growth and development. For years, it was believed that abundant natural resources, as part of a country’s capital, constituted a divine blessing, as they could be converted into other forms of capital and contribute to overall economic development. Consequently, countries rich in natural resources were expected to perform better economically than those without such resources. However, over time, particularly after World War II, empirical evidence revealed that most resource-rich countries performed poorly compared to resource-poor countries.
In the late twentieth century, the best economic growth performances were observed in newly industrialized countries in South Asia, including South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan. In contrast, many resource-rich countries, such as oil-rich nations like Mexico, Nigeria, and Venezuela, faced dire situations during the same period.
Nonetheless, some empirical studies have highlighted a positive relationship between natural resource abundance and economic growth. Stijns (2001), using an alternative variable from Sachs and Warner (1995) to measure resource abundance, found no evidence of the detrimental effect of natural resources on economic growth. Lederman and Maloney (2003) also reported a positive relationship between resource abundance (measured by net resource exports per worker) and economic growth.
Sala-i-Martin and Subramanian (2003) contended that the relationship between natural resource abundance and economic growth loses statistical significance once institutional quality is accounted for. They suggested that the effect of natural resources depends on the type of resource, indicating that fuel and mineral resources negatively affect institutions (and thus economic growth), whereas the relationship between economic growth and other types of resources is not statistically significant. Similarly, Papyrakis and Gerlagh (2004) demonstrated that when variables such as corruption, investment, degree of freedom, terms of trade, and education are controlled and managed, the abundance of natural resources would have a positive effect on economic growth.
Thus, it can be concluded that not all resource-rich countries have experienced poor economic performance or economic decline. In certain cases, the optimal utilization of abundant resources has led to significant economic growth and increased per capita income.
Economic growth remains the primary goal of all economies, as it is directly linked to maximizing societal welfare. Economic growth encompasses increased utilization of inputs, improved productivity of production factors, and enhanced employment opportunities. Natural resources are among the most crucial sources of production in any country. According to growth and development theories, as well as international trade theories, these resources can provide a comparative advantage for an economy. Income generated from natural resource abundance can create national wealth, spur economic progress, increase societal welfare, and reduce poverty. In this regard, mineral resources are considered a key factor in accelerating investment and economic growth. However, some empirical studies suggest otherwise, indicating that many countries with abundant natural resources, including minerals, have failed to harness these resources effectively to achieve the desired economic benefits.
Methodology
This study examines the economic growth patterns of Iran and a group of mineral-rich countries from 2000 to 2020. A panel data method was employed to estimate and evaluate the results, considering the similarities between the selected countries and Iran in terms of mineral resource abundance.
In the research process, the final variables and the functional form of the model were identified, and data processing, analysis, and model estimation were conducted using Stata software. The data used in the study were collected from official sources, including the Central Bank, the Statistical Center of Iran, and the Ministry of Industry, Mine, and Trade. Additionally, for data on other countries, international sources such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) STAN database were utilized.
Findings
The study investigated the direct and indirect effects of natural resource abundance on economic growth through channels such as physical capital accumulation, research and development (R&D) investment in technology, labor, financial development, and economic freedom across three groups of countries. The first group includes countries with both mineral resources and oil, the second group consists of countries with only minerals, and the third group comprises countries with only oil resources. The generalized fixed effects model was selected as the final model for all three groups. According to the results:
·         The share of mineral resources in exports was significant and positive for the first and second groups of countries, whereas it was significant and negative for the third group, which includes Iran.
·         The share of oil and gas resources in exports was significant and positive for the first group of countries, but it had a significant negative impact for the third group.
·         The capital stock variable was positive and significant for all three groups.
·         The unemployment rate had a significant negative relationship with per capita income across all groups.
·         The total factor productivity index was positive and significant for all groups, positively influencing per capita income.
·         Research and development expenditures had a significant positive effect on per capita income across all groups.
·         The economic openness index was significant for all groups, positively affecting per capita income.
·         The institutional quality index was significant for all groups, positively influencing per capita income.
·         The net foreign direct investment variable was significant for the second group but had a negative effect.
Discussion and Conclusion
The results suggest that the hypothesis of natural resource abundance positively influencing economic growth is supported for the first and second groups of countries. However, this hypothesis is not confirmed for the third group, which includes Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Economic Growth
Mineral Resources
Abundance Panel Data
Resource Curse
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