پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

بررسی علل تداوم سیاست های تورم زا در ایران از منظر سطح تحلیلی توسعه

نویسندگان
1 استادیار پژوهشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه تربیت مدرس تهران، ایران
2 استاد دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
هیچ متغیر اقتصادی مانند تّورم، جامعه را با آشوب‌های اجتماعی، فرهنگی، سیاسی و حتی امنیت ملی مواجه نمی‌کند. توّرم، اعتماد در ساختار اقتصادی، اجتماعی و سیاسی را به شدت کاهش می‌دهد و موجب کاهش معنی‌دار کنترل اجتماعی می‌شود، و بنیه اقتصادی اجتماعات را در راستای حفظ سطح واقعی کنترل‌های بازدارنده تحلیل می‌برد و فرسایش می‌دهد. بنابراین، بی‌جهت نیست که در عرصه سیاست‌گذاری‌های اقتصادی، اجتماعی در مقیاس جهانی، تا این اندازه بر روی آثار سیاست‌های اقتصادی بر تورم، حساسیت اعمال می‌شود. در این پژوهش،‌ با استفاده از رویکرد تحلیلی اقتصاد سیاسی توسعه، به دنبال چرایی اتخاذ سیاست‌های تورم‌زا و تداوم و تقویت آن در اقتصاد ایران طی سال های 1398-1368بوده ایم. در این پژوهش، با استفاده از روش تحلیلی و توصیفی بر پایه داده های رسمی (اسناد)، سعی شده از جنبه شناختی با تصحیح دیدگاه‌ نسبت به علل تورم در اقتصاد ایران، به بررسی اینکه چرا از منظر اقتصاد سیاسی، اراده سیاست‌گذاری اقتصادی در ایران، گرایش به اتخاذ سیاست‌های تورم‌زا دارد، بپردازد و با اتکا بر ادبیات اقتصاد سیاسی تورم، آثار تورم ‌را بر شعاع اعتماد و همکاری‌های اجتماعی مبتنی بر اعتماد، مورد ارزیابی قرار دهد. در این پژوهش، مسأله اصلی، وضعیت نامتقارن نفع برندگان و زیان بینندگان از این سیاست در ساحت های سیاست و اقتصاد دانسته شده و به دنبال پاسخ به سؤال اصلی تحقیق، یک منطق صحیح هدفگذاری تورم را نه به عنوان قاعده سیاست‌گذاری کوتاه مدت بلکه به عنوان یک چهارچوب سیاست‌گذاری بر محور افق‌های میان‌مدت و بلندمدت معرفی می کند و با تأکید بر ضرورت حفظ توانایی بانک مرکزی برای حل مسائل کوتاه‌مدت، نیاز به برنامه‌ای فراگیر و همه جانبه تحت عنوان تولید محوری (بر پایه کاهش فساد و تحول نظام پاداش‌دهی) را شاهراه اصلی حل پدیده تورم معرفی می‌نماید.


کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Investigating the Reasons for the Continuation of Inflationary Policies in Iran from the Perspective of the Analytical Level of Development

نویسندگان English

saeedeh alizadeh 1
Farshad Momeni 2
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Economic Research Institute, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor of Economics, Allameh Tabataba`i University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Aims and Introduction:

No economic variable like inflation confronts the society with social, cultural, political and even national security disturbances. Inflation greatly reduces trust in the economic, social and political structure and causes a significant reduction in social control.

Therefore, it is reasonable that in the field of economic and social policies on a global scale, sensitivity is applied to the effects of economic policies on inflation. In looking at the issue of inflation from the level of development, for numerous reasons, no approach will have a high explanatory ability as the approach of political economy. The political economy approach to development is an ultimatum approach that identifies and analyzes the main root of problems by focusing on the final winners and losers of the flawed policy cycles in the economy. The main goal of this research is to explain why the economic policymaking field of Iran's economy tends to adopt inflationary policies from the perspective of political economy with emphasis on the level of development.

Methodology:

In this research, using the analytical approach of the political economy of development, we have looked for the reason for the adoption of inflationary policies and their continuation and strengthening in the Iranian economy during 1989-2019. In this research, using the analytical and descriptive method and official data, an attempt has been made to investigate why the will of economic policymaking in Iran tends to adopt has inflationary policies and to evaluate the effects of inflation on the radius of trust and social cooperation based on trust. This research focuses on cognitive aspect of the causes of inflation in Iran and relies on political economy of inflation.

Findings:

In this research, by correcting the view of the causes of inflation in Iran's economy, it has been tried to investigate why the will of economic policy-making in Iran tends to adopt inflationary policies, And the main question of the research was explained under the three axes of dominant culture of rent, wrong incentives for policy makers and political economy of interest groups.

Disregarding science and preferring everyday considerations, a specific mindset and benefit ruling the policy-making system and the discussion of the beneficial and unproductive groups whose interests are in line with unproductive policies, the bottlenecks of political economy and the wrong incentives of politicians in the field of political and economic are main causes of inflation persistency.

Discussion and Conclusion:

Finally, it can be concluded that with a correct inflation targeting logic, it is possible to design a plan under the title of production-oriented based on the reduction of corruption and the evolution of the reward system, along with ensuring the security of property rights. In fact, with the aim of focusing on the issue of production from two angles, changing the mechanism of the reward system and controlling corruption through reorganizing the mental and thought structures governing the society, especially the policy-making and decision-making system, we may move towards an institutional structure that promotes correct thinking in the policy-making arena. This idea comes out of the heart of that development; such a program definitely needs help from a correct logic of targeting in the policy field. The most important result of such program will definitely be the reduction of the general level of prices.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Political economy of inflation
Inflation
Analytical level of development
Production-oriented plan
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