پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

بررسی ‌‌بی‌ثباتی مالی در مدل پویا: مطالعه موردی کشورهای خاورمیانه

نویسندگان
1 دکترای اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران
2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران
3 استادیارگروه اقتصاد واحد ملایر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ملایر، ایران
4 استادیارگروه اقتصاد واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران
چکیده
‌‌بی‌ثباتی مالی، ‌می‌تواند به شکست در عملکرد بازارهای مالی منجر شود و هزینه‌های کلان اقتصادی ایجاد نماید و بنابراین، با بررسی این رویداد آسیب­زا، می­توان در جهت حصول شرایط ثبات و اطمینان اقتصادی پیش رفت. هدف اصلی این تحقیق، بررسی ‌‌بی‌ثباتی مالی کشورهای خاورمیانه طی سال­های 2000 تا 2019 در یک برآورد پویا و از طریق روش دو مرحله­ای گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته سیستمی می‌باشد. برای دستیابی به این هدف، شاخص ‌‌بی‌ثباتی و توسعه مالی براساس متغیرهای تأثیرگذار بخش بانکی و بازار سهام در دو گروه کشورهای صادرکننده نفت و کشورهای بدون صادرات نفت منطقه، ایجاد گردید. اکثر کشورهای منطقه صادرکننده‌‌ نفت بوده و نتایج حاصل از برآورد، تأیید کننده تأثیر منفی و معنا دار توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی بر ‌‌بی‌ثباتی مالی می‌باشد. همچنین به منظور ایجاد نگاه جامع­تر، از متغیرهای کنترل رابطه مبادله و مخارج دولت و تورم نیز در مدل استفاده گردیده است. وقفه اول ‌‌بی‌ثباتی مالی و متغیر تورم و مخارج دولت، تأثیر مثبت و معنادار و رابطه مبادله، تأثیر منفی و معنادار بر ‌‌بی‌ثباتی مالی دارد. در کشورهایی که صادرکننده‌‌ نفت نیستند، به­دلیل ‌‌بی‌ثباتی مالی کمتر نسبت به کشورهای صادرکننده‌‌، ارتباط تعدادی از متغیرها با ‌‌بی‌ثباتی مالی معنادار نشد و نتایج متفاوتی حاصل گردید. توصیه می‌گردد که سیاستگذاران با کنترل قیمت­ها و هدایت نقدینگی و اعتبارات به سمت تولید، اصلاح سطح و ترکیب مخارج دولت و بهبود در روابط تجاری، بتوانند در جهت کاهش ‌‌بی‌ثباتی مالی اقدام نمایند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Investigating Financial Instability in a Dynamic Model: A Case Study of Middle Eastern Countries

نویسندگان English

Azadeh Arab 1
Ahmad sarlak 2
Mojtaba Ghiasi 3
Maryam Shariehnezhad 4
1 Ph.D. in Economics, Department of Economics, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University of Arak, Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Economics, Malayer Branch, Islamic Azad University, Malayer, Iran
4 Assistant Professor of Economics, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran
چکیده English

Financial instability can lead to failure in financial markets and create macroeconomic costs. Therefore, by examining this harmful event, we can achieve conditions of economic stability and security. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the financial instability of Middle Eastern countries during the years 2000 to 2019 in a dynamic model and using a two-stage system of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). To reach this goal, the index of instability and financial development was created on the basis of the influential variables of the banking sector and the stock market in two groups of oil exporting and non-exporting countries in the region. The estimation results show the different effects of variables on financial instability in exporting and non-exporting countries. Most countries in the region are oil exporters and the results of the estimate confirm the negative and significant impact of financial development and economic growth on financial instability. Also, in order to create a more comprehensive view, the control variables of the terms of trade, government spending and inflation have been used in the model. The first lag of financial instability and inflation variable have positive and significant effects and the terms of trade and government spending have negative and significant effects on financial instability. In oil non-exporting countries, due to less financial instability than exporting countries, the relationship between a number of variables and financial instability was not significant and different results were obtained. It is recommended that policy makers reduce financial instability by controlling prices and directing liquidity and credits to production, reforming the level and composition of government spending, and improving trade relations.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Financial Development
Financial Instability
economic growth
Systematic Generalized Method of Moment
Middle East
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