پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

نقش بخش بانکی در پویایی‌های بخش اقتصاد کلان ایران در قالب یک مدل تعادل عمومی تصادفی پویا

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه ارومیه
2 استاد دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه ارومیه
3 استادیار دانشگاه حضرت معصومه قم
چکیده
با توجه به اهمیت بخش بانکی در پویایی‌های اقتصاد ایران، به دلیل بانک محور بودن نظام تأمین مالی در این کشور، مقاله حاضر، با استفاده از رهیافت تعادل عمومی تصادفی پویا (DSGE) و با لحاظ بحث تسهیلات بانکی ارائه شده به منظور تأمین مالی بنگاه ها، برای سال‌های 1396-1370، به بررسی واکنش بخش اقتصاد کلان ایران به تکانه‌های پولی و مالی، با لحاظ واقعیت وابستگی اقتصاد به بخش بانکی، از کانال تسهیلات اعطایی بانک‌ها، می‌پردازد. بدین منظور، بعد از تصریح الگو، بهینه‌یابی و استخراج شروط مرتبه اول، شکل خطی- لگاریتمی معادلات به‌دست آمده، سپس الگو به روش کالیبراسیون، شبیه‌سازی شده و جهت تجزیه و تحلیل تکانه‌های وارده، توابع عکس‌العمل آنی متغیرهای شبیه سازی شده، مورد بررسی قرار گرفته‌اند. الگو، تحت دو سناریوی متفاوت، با فرض لحاظ بخش بانکی در تأمین مالی اقتصاد از کانال تسهیلات اعطایی در قالب تسهیلات سرمایه‌ای و سرمایه در گردش و بدون در نظر گرفتن بحث تسهیلات، شبیه‌سازی شده، و نتایج نشان می‌دهد که با بروز تکانه‌های پولی و مالی، واکنش متغیرهای شبیه‌سازی شده با مبانی تئوریک اقتصاد، مطابقت دارد که این مسأله، نشان‌دهنده توانایی الگو در برازش صحیح اقتصاد ایران بوده، و علاوه براین، مقایسه گشتاورهای متغیرهای شبیه‌سازی شده با گشتاورهای داده‌های واقعی نیز مؤید موفقیت الگو در شبیه‌سازی واقعیات است. نهایتاً، نتایج نشان می‌دهد که استفاده از ابزار در اختیار بانک‌ها در بحث تأمین مالی بنگاه ها، می‌تواند به کاهش دامنه نوسانات اقتصادی کمک کند، و ثبات اقتصاد را افزایش دهد. موضوعی که بهتر است در مسیر دستیابی به توسعه پایدار، مورد توجه سیاستگذاران اقتصادی قرار گیرد.






کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

The Role of the Banking Sector in the Dynamics of Iran's Macro-economy within a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

نویسندگان English

morteza dehghandorost 1
Hassan Heidari 2
sahar bashiri 3
1 Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University
2 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University
3 Assistant Professor of Economics, Hazrat Masoumeh University, Qom, Iran
چکیده English

This research examines the macroeconomic variables reaction and banking sector with the financial and monetary shocks using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE). Considering the banking facilities and utilization of seasonal data for the period 1991-2017, the banking sector behavior in the economic dynamics is studied. Therefore, the linear-logarithmic form of the equations is obtained after specifying the model, optimizing, and extracting the first-order conditions. The model is simulated under two different scenarios by considering bank facilities as two types of capital facilities and working capital, and not considering the facilities. The results show that by occurring financial and monetary shocks, the instant reaction of variables is consistent with the theoretical bases of the economy, which indicates the acceptable ability of the model in accurately fitting Iran's economy. Furthermore, comparing the moments of the simulated variables with the real data, the success of the model in simulating the governing facts of the economy is confirmed. Finally, the results show that banking facilities could reduce the range of economic fluctuations and increase the stability of the economy. This issue can be mentioned by the economic policymakers in order to reach economic sustainable development.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Capital Facility
Working Capital Facility
Monetary Shock
Financial Shock
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model
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