پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

تحلیل منافع عضویت ایران در سازمان همکاری شانگهای: رویکرد تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه

نویسندگان
1 دانشیار بخش اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، بخش اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.
چکیده
عضویت ایران در سازمان همکاری شانگهای، علاوه بر دستاوردهای سیاسی و امنیتی، می‌تواند منافع اقتصادی گسترده‌ای به همراه داشته باشد. در این راستا، در پژوهش حاضر، اثرات اقتصادی کاهش تعرفه‌های وارداتی ایران و سازمان همکاری شانگهای، تحلیل شده است. در این پژوهش، تحلیل تجربی و کمی‌سازی نتایج بر اساس الگوی پروژه تحلیل تجارت جهانی (GTAP) انجام شده، که از نوع الگوی‌های تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه (CGE)، جهانی و چند منطقه‌ای است. با توجه به ماهیت بین‌المللی بودن تجزیه و تحلیل، یک الگو و پایگاه داده جهانی به منظور تحقق اهداف این پژوهش مورد نیاز بود و بنابراین، الگویGTAP و نسخۀ 10 پایگاه داده آن (منتشر شده در سال 2020) برای تجزیه و تحلیل انتخاب شد. در این مطالعه، اثرات اقتصادی (رفاه، تولید و تجارت) حضور ایران در سازمان همکاری شانگهای در بخش‌های مختلف اقتصادی، طی دو سناریو (کاهش 50 درصدی و کاهش 100 درصدی نرخ دو جانبۀ تعرفه‌ها) تحلیل شده است. نتایج این پژوهش، نشان می‌دهد که بخش‌ «غلات و محصولات زراعی» به دلیل نرخ تعرفه اولیه بالا، بخش «منسوجات و پوشاک» به دلیل نرخ تعرفه اولیه بالا، بخش «صنایع سبک» به دلیل نرخ تعرفه اولیه بالا و بخش «صنایع سنگین» نیز به دلیل حجم تجارت بالا، از بخش‌های مهم و اثرگذار عضویت ایران در سازمان همکاری شانگهای است و پیشنهاد می‌شود، تغییرات نرخ تعرفۀ بخش‌های ذکر شده، با دقت بالایی انجام شود. در مجموع، نتایج نشان می‌دهد که عضویت ایران در این سازمان، افزایش متغیرهای رفاه، تولید و تجارت در کشورمان را به همراه دارد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Analysis of the Interests of Iran's Membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Approach

نویسندگان English

Mehdi Nejati 1
yaser balaghi enalou 2
1 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
2 PhD Student in Economics, Department of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
چکیده English

Iran's membership in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), in addition to political and security gains, can bring broad economic benefits. In this regard, in this research, the economic impacts of decreasing import tariffs of Iran and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization have been analyzed. In this study, empirical analysis and quantifying the results have been done regarding Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, as a computable general equilibrium CGE, and global and multi-regional model. Considering the international nature of analysis, a global model and database were required to achieve the purposes of this study, thus, version 10 of GTAP model and its database (published in 2020) was selected for analysis. In this research, the economic impacts (welfare, production, trade) of Iran's presence in the SCO in various economic sectors were analyzed in two scenarios (50% decrease and 100% decrease in bilateral tariffs). The results indicate that sector "Grains and Crops" in terms of high initial tariff rate, sector "Textiles and Clothing" in terms of high initial tariff rate, sector " Light Manufacturing" in terms of high initial tariff rate and sector " Heavy Manufacturing" due to high trade volume is the significant and influential sectors of Iran's membership in Shanghai Cooperation Organization. It is recommended that tariff rate changes of the mentioned sectors be performed with high accuracy. In general, the results indicate that the variables of welfare, production and trade are increasing in Iran.


کلیدواژه‌ها English

Trade Liberalization
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model
Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model
Abrego, M. L., Amado, M. A., Gursoy, T., Nicholls, G. P., & Perez-Saiz, H. (2019). The African continental free trade agreement: Welfare gains estimates from a general equilibrium model. International Monetary Fund.
Allen, R. L. (1963). Review of The theory of economic integration, by Bela Balassa. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 11(4), 449-454.
Amogne, H. S., & Hagiwara, T. (2021). Impact of alternative regional trade arrangements on the Ethiopian economy. Journal of Economic Structures, 10(1), 1-26.
A'yun, I. Q. (2020). ASEAN-Canada free trade agreement: Potential economic for ASEAN member countries. Journal Optimum, 10(1), 1-14.
Balassa, B. (1961). The Theory of Economic Integration. Homewood, Illinois: Richard D. Irwin. Inc. London.‏
Baldwin, R., Forslid, R., & Haaland, J. (1995). Investment creation and investment diversion: simulation analysis of thesingle market programme.‏
Bergsten, C. F. (1996). Competitive liberalization and global free trade: a vision for the early 21st century.
Bhagwati, J. (1968). More on the Equivalence of Tariffs and Quotas. The American Economic Review, 58(1), 142-146.
Bhagwati, J. (2008). Termites in the trading system: How preferential agreements undermine free trade. Oxford University Press
Bhagwati, J. (1971). Trade-diverting customs :union:s and welfare-improvement: A clarification. The Economic Journal, 81(323), 580-587.‏
Blackhurst, R., & Henderson, D. (1993). Regional Integration Agreements. World Integration and the GATTkin Kym Anderson and Richard Blackhurst (eds.), Regional Inte $ gration and the Global Trading System, London: HarvesterWheatsheaf, 408l35.
Brada, J. C., & Mendez, J. A. (1988). An estimate of the dynamic effects of economic integration. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 163-168.‏
Brockmeier, M. (2001). A graphical exposition of the GTAP model.
Chauffour, J. P., & Maur, J. C. (Eds.). (2011). Preferential Trade Agreement Policies for Development: A Handbook. World Bank Publications.
Clark, D. P., & Stanley, D. L. (1999). Determinants of intra-industry trade between developing countries and the United States. Journal of Economic Development, 24(2), 79-95.‏
Cooper, C. A., & Massell, B. F. (1965). A new look at customs :union: theory. The economic journal, 75(300), 742-747.
Corden, W. M. (1972). Economies of scale and customs :union: theory. Journal of Political Economy, 80(3, Part 1), 465-475.
Dai, M., Yotov, Y. V., & Zylkin, T. (2014). On the trade-diversion effects of free trade agreements. Economics Letters, 122(2), 321-325.
Elliott, R. J. R., and Ikemoto, K. (2004). AFTA and the Asian crisis: Help or hindrance toASEAN intra-regional trade. Asian Economic Journal, 18(1), 1-22.
Gehrels, F. (1956). Customs :union: from a single-country viewpoint. The review of economic studies, 24(1), 61-64.‏
Haas, E. B., & Schmitter, P. C. (1964). Economics and differential patterns of political integration: Projections about unity in Latin America. International Organization, 18(4), 705-737.‏
Hay, G A. (1957). Review of The theory of customs :union:s, by J. E. Meade. The Journal of Political Economy. 65 (1): pp. 85-86.
Hillmann, H. C. (1956). Review of The theory of customs :union:s, by J. E. Meade. International Affairs. 32 (4): p. 492.
Jaswal, I., & Narayanan, B. (2017). Trade impact of SADC-India FTA on textiles and clothing sectors. Business Ethics and Leadership,1(2),20-30.
Jayasinghe, S., and Sarker, R. (2004). Effects of regional trade agreements on trade in agrifood products: Evidence from gravity modelling using disaggregated data. Working Paper 04-WP 374, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University, Iowa, USA.
Johnson, H. G. (1975). A note on welfare-increasing trade diversion. The Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'Economique, 8(1), 117-123.‏
Kahnert, F, P. Richards, E. Stoutjesdijk, and P. Thomopoulos. (1969). Economic integration among developing countries. Paris. Development Center of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
Kemp, M. C. (1965). Review of An essay on trade and transformation, by S. B. Linder. The Economic Journal. 75 (297): pp. 200-201.
Koçyiğit, A., & Şen, A. (2007). The extent of intra-industry trade between Turkey and the European :union:: The impact of customs :union:. Journal of Economic and Social Research, 9(2), 61-84.‏
Krauss, M. B. (1972). Recent developments in customs :union: theory: An interpretive survey. Journal of economic literature, 10(2), 413-436.‏
Krugman, P. R. (1991). Geography and trade. MIT press.
Lancaster, K. (1980). Intra-industry trade under perfect monopolistic competition. Journal of international Economics, 10(2), 151-175.‏
Levy, P. I. (1997). A political-economic analysis of free-trade agreements. The American Economic Review, 506-519.
Lipsey, R. G. (1957). The theory of customs :union:s: Trade diversion and welfare. Economica, New Series 24 (February): pp. 40-46.
Lipsey, R. G. (1960). The theory of customs :union:s: A general survey. The Economic Journal. 70 (279): pp. 496-513.
Lipsey, R. G., & Lancaster, K. (1956). The General Theory of Second Best. The Review of Economics. Studies, 24, 1956-57.‏
Machlup, F. (1977). A history of thought on economic integration. New York: Columbia University Press.
Meade, J. E. (1955). The theory of customs :union:s. North-Holland Publishing.
Meyer, F. V. (1956). Complementarity and the lowering of tariffs. The American Economic Review. 46 (3): pp. 323-335
Narayanan, B., & Sharma, S. K. (2016). An analysis of tariff reductions in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): Implications for the Indian economy. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 10(1), 1-34.
Panagariya, A. (1998). The regionalism debate: An overview. University of Maryland.
Pomfret, R. (1997). The economics of regional trading arrangements. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Romalis, J. (2007). NAFTA's and CUSFTA's impact on international trade. Review of Economics and Statistics, 89 (3), 416-35.
Shams, R. (2003). Regional integration in developing countries: Some lessons based on case studies. HWWA Discussion Paper no. 251. Hamburg, Germany: Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
Sheer, A. (1981). A survey of the political economy of customs :union:s. Law and Contemporary Problems 44 (3): pp.33-53.
Staley, C. E. (1977). Review of A history of thought on economic integration, by Fritz Machlup. Annals of the American Academy of Political and
Viner, J. (1950). The Customs :union: Issue. New York: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.