پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

اثرات نامتقارن اقتصاد سایه بر توسعه مالی در ایران با رویکرد مدل NARDL

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی اصیل

نویسندگان
کیومرث شهبازی 1
خدیجه حسن زاده 2
وحید خوش خبر 3
1 دانشیار اقتصاد دانشگاه ارومیه
2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه ارومیه
3 دانش آموخته کارشناسی دانشگاه ارومیه
چکیده
این مقاله با استفاده از مدل اتو رگرسیون با وقفه­ های توزیعی غیرخطی (NARDL)، تأثیر شوک­های مثبت و منفی اقتصاد سایه بر توسعه مالی را طی دوره­ زمانی 1353 تا 1394 در کوتاه ­مدت و بلندمدت، مورد بررسی قرار داده، و برای این منظور، با بهره­گیری از نسبت حجم نقدینگی به‌ تولید ناخالص داخلی به‌عنوان شاخص توسعه مالی، به تعیین اثرپذیری این عامل از اقتصاد سایه- شامل تمامی فعالیت­های تولیدی مبتنی بر بازار که به دلیل فرار یا اجتناب از پرداخت­هایی نظیر مالیات و سهم تأمین اجتماعی، به طور عمدی از مقامات دولتی پنهان می­شوند- پرداخته، و برای اندازه ­گیری اقتصاد سایه، از شاخص چندگانه-علل چندگانه محاسبه شده توسط پیرایی و رجایی (1394)، استفاده به عمل آمده است. نتایج تحقیق، نشان می­دهد که تأثیر شوک­های مثبت و منفی اقتصاد سایه بر توسعه­ مالی در بلندمدت و کوتاه‌مدت، نامتقارن بوده، و این عدم تقارن به این صورت است که در کوتاه ­مدت و بلندمدت، شوک منفی اقتصاد سایه، تأثیر بیشتری نسبت به شوک مثبت آن دارد. لذا دولت می ­تواند جهت حفظ سطح موجود توسعه­ مالی، در کوتاه­ مدت از طریق کنترل سخت­گیرانه فعالیت­های غیرقانونی، مانع افزایش اندازه اقتصاد سایه گردد و در بلندمدت، نسبت به شناسایی فعالیت­های غیرقانونی موجود و کاهش تدریجی آن، اقدام کند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
اقتصاد سایه
تأثیر نامتقارن
مدل NARDL

عنوان مقاله English

Asymmetric Effects of Shadow Economy on Financial Development in Iran: NARDL Approach

نویسندگان English

kiumars shahbazi 1
khadijeh Hasanzadeh 2
Vahid Khoshkhabar 3
1 Professor of Economics, Urmia University
2 Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Urmia University
3 B.A. in Economics, Urmia University
چکیده English

This paper uses the non-linear auto-regressive distributed lags (NARDL) model to examine the short- and long -run effects of the negative and positive shocks of the shadow economy on financial development in Iran over the period 1974 - 2015. For this purpose, the ratio of liquidity to gross domestic product is used as an indicator of financial development. The shadow economy includes all market-based production activities that are deliberately hidden from government officials due to the escape or avoidance of payments, such as taxes and social security contributions. In this study, the MIMIC (multiple indicators and multiple causes) calculations by Piraee and Rajaee (2015) are used for estimating the shadow economy. The results show that the effects of positive and negative shocks of shadow economy on financial development are asymmetric in the short- and long-run. This asymmetry means that in the short- and long-run, the negative shock to shadow economy is more effective than its positive shock. Therefore, in order to maintain the current level of financial development, the government can monitor size of shadow economy through strict control of illegal activities in the short-run, identify the illegal activities, and reduce them in the long run‎.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Shadow Economy
Asymmetric impact
NARDL
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پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی
دوره 20، شماره 1
بهار 1399
صفحه 204-185