پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

بررسی اثر سرمایه انسانی بر جنگ داخلی با احتساب نقش دموکراسی(رویکرد حداقل مربعات تعمیم یافته-پانلی)

نویسندگان
1 عضو هیات علمی گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا
2 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان
3 دکتری اقتصاد، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان
چکیده
در طی دویست سال گذشته، فرایند شکل گیری دموکراسی نه تنها یکنواخت نبوده بلکه همراه با نوسان های گوناگون، ازجمله جنگ ها و کشمکش های خارجی و داخلی بوده است. پرسش اصلی این است که آیا در سامانه تأثیر و تاثر سطح آموزش بر وقوع کشمکش های داخلی کشورها، افزایش سطح دموکراسی (همراه با افزایش سطح سرمایه انسانی) منجر به کاهش وقوع کشمکش های داخلی خواهد شد یا خیر. این مطالعه با استفاده از 11 دوره زمانی (با فواصل 5 ساله) و 83 کشور منتخب جنگ زده، به بررسی رابطه بین سرمایه انسانی و جنگ (کشمکش) داخلی با احتساب نقش دموکراسی در این اثرگذاری می پردازد. برای برآورد روابط بین متغیرها از روش حداقل مربعات تعمیم یافته-پانلی استفاده شده است. نتایج حاکی از وجود رابطه ای منفی و معنادار بین متغیرهای سرمایه انسانی، تولید ملی، دموکراسی با متغیر جنگ (کشمکش) داخلی است. همچنین، با ورود متغیر تعاملی (دموکراسی ضربدر سرمایه انسانی) در مدل، نتایج حاکی از وجود اثر تصاعدی-کاهشی هر دو متغیر دموکراسی و سرمایه انسانی در احتمال وقوع کشمکش ها است.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

The Impact of Human Capital on the Civil Wars Considering the Role of Democracy: A Panel Generalized Least Squares Approach

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Hassan Fotros 1
Morteza Ghorban Seresht 2
Ali Dalaei Milan 3
1 Member of scientific corpus of Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, I.R. of Iran
2 M.A in Economics, Bu-Ali Sina University
3 Ph.D. in Economics, Bu-Ali Sina University
چکیده English

Over the past two hundred years, not only the process of democracy formation has not been uniform; but also it has been with different fluctuations, including internal and external wars and conflicts. Within the system of interactions between education and the occurrence of internal conflicts in a country, the question is whether increase in the level of democracy reduces the occurrence of internal conflict or not. This study uses a panel data with 11 periods (of five years), and 83 selected war-torn countries to examine the relationship between human capital and domestic war (conflict), taking into consideration the effectiveness of democracy in this relationship. To estimate the magnitude of relationships between variables, a panel generalized least squares method is applied. Results indicate a significant negative relationship among human capital, GDP, democracy, and internal conflict. In addition, with inclusion of the interactional variable (democracy multiplied by human capital) in the model, the results show a declining progressive negative effect of both democracy and human capital on the occurrence of conflicts.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Democracy
Internal conflicts
Panel generalized least squares
دادگر، یداله(1390) ظرفیت نظریه اقتصاد سیاسی قانون اساسی جهت انضباط بخشی مدیریت بخش عمومی؛ مجله اقتصاد تطبیقی، پژوهشکده علوم انسانی و مطالعات فرهنگی، سال دوم شماره دوم:33-109.
فطرس، محمدحسن؛ قربان سرشت، مرتضی؛ و دلائی میلان، علی (1392) تراکم جمعیت، دموکراسی و فساد؛ فصلنامه علمی-پژوهشی راهبرد اقتصادی، سال دوم، شماره ششم.
Agüero, J. M., &FarhanMajid, M. (2014) War and the Destruction of Human Capital;Households in Conflict Network(HiCN)Working Papers No. 163.
Anyanwu, John C. (2002) Economic and Political Causes of Civil Wars in Africa: Some Econometric Results; Economic Research Papers.
Barzilai, Gad (1999) War, Democracy, and Internal Conflict: Israel in a Comparative Perspective; Comparative Politics, Vol.31, No. 3: 317-336.
Chairman, Luis Rubio (2013) Democracy and Conflict; Centre of Research for Development (CIDAC), Mexico City.
Chamarbagwala,  Rubiana, & Morán, Hilcías. E. (2010)The human capital consequences of civil war: Evidence from Guatemala; Journal of Development Economics 94, 41-61.
Collier Paul, and Hoeffler, Anke (2004) Aid, policy and growth in post-conflict societies; European Economic Review 48:1125-45.
Collier, P. (2000) Economic causes of civil conflict and their implications for policy (pp. 839-53), Washington, DC: World Bank.
Collier, P., &Rohner, D. (2008) Democracy, development, and conflict; Journal of the European Economic Association, 6(2‐3): 531-540.
Collier, Paul, &Hoeffler, Anke (1998)On Economic Causes of Civil War; Published in Oxford Economic, Papers 50: 563-73.
Dabaleno, A. L., & Paul, S. (2012) Estimating the Causal Effects of War on Education in Côte D’Ivoire (No. 120), Households in Conflict Network.
David, Stasavage (2005) Democracy and Education Spending in Africa; American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 49, No. 2: 343-358.
Dirk, Bezemer,& Richard, Jong-A-Pin (2013) Democracy, globalization and ethnic violence; Journal of Comparative Economics, 41: 108-125.
Fearon, James and David Laitin (2003) Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War; American Political Science Review, 97: 75-90.
Fearon, James D. (2005) Primary Commodity Exports and Civil War;The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 49, No. 4: 483-507.
Gleditsch, KristianSkrede, & Ruggeri, Andrea(2010) Political opportunity structures, democracy, and civil war; Peace Research, Vol. 47 No. 3: 299-310.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter (2008) Peace and Democracy; International Peace Research Institute, Oslo, Norway: 1430-37.  
Havard, Hegre(2014) Democracy and armed conflict; Journal of Peace Research 51(2.(
HåvardHegre, TanjaEllingsen, Scott Gates and Nils PetterGleditsch(2001) Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816-1992;The American Political Science Review, Vol. 95, No. 1: 33-48.
Hegre, Havard, & Raleigh, Clionadh (2006) Population Size, Concentration, and Civil War: A Geographically Disaggregated Analysis; Paper presented to the Meeting in the Environmental Factors in Civil War Working Group.
Hsiao, C. (1986) Analysis of Panel Data;Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Hyesung Kim(2009)Civil Wars, Human Capital and Economic Growth: A SUR Approach; available from The African Econometric Society Website.
Kotera, Go; Okada, Keisuke, and Samreth, Sovannroeun (2012) Government Size, Democracy, and Corruption: An empirical Investigation; Economic Modeling, 29: 2340-48.
La Porta, R.; F. Lopez-De-Silanes; A. Shleifer, and R. Vishny (1999) The Quality of Government; Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, 15:1: 222-279.
Lacina, B. (2010) Battle Deaths Dataset 1946-2008; Codebook for Version 3, Centre for the Study of Civil War (CSCW).
Lai, B.& Thine, C. (2007)The Effect of Civil War on Education, 1980-97; Journal of Peace Research 44: 277.
Matthew, A. Baum, & David, A. Lake (2003)The Political Economy of Growth: Democracy and Human Capital; American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 47, No. 2: 333-347.
Pezzini, S. and R. MacCulloch (2003) The Role of Freedom, Growth and Religion in the Taste for Revolution; Paper presented at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference, UK: University of Warwick.
Raleigh, C .(2007) Civil War Risk in Democratic and Non-Democratic Neighborhoods. World Bank Project on Political Institutions and Conflict. NO. 17.
Reynal, Q. M.(2004) Does democracy preempt civil wars?; European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 21: 445-465. 
Reynal, Q.M.(2002) Ethnicity, Political Systems, and Civil Wars; Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 46, No. 1: 29-54.
Rubio, L. (2013). In the Lurch Between Government and Chaos: Unconsolidated Democracy in Mexico. Migration Policy Institute.‏
Scott, Gates, &Havard, Hegre(2012) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict; World Development Vol. 40, No. 9: 1713-22. 
Shemyakina, O. (2006)The Effect of Armed Conflict on Accumulation of Schooling: Results from Tajikistan; Households in Conflict Network, HiCN Working Paper 12.
Steven Fish,  M., &Kroenig,  Matthew (2006) Diversity, Conflict and Democracy: Some Evidence from Eurasia and East Europe; Democratization, Vol. 13, No.5: 828-842.
UCDP/PRIO (2009) UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset Codebook Version 4-2009. Uppsala and Oslo: Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) and International Peace Research Institute (PRIO).  
Wacziarg, R. (2001) Human capital and democracy; xerox, Stanford University, January, available from the author’s website.