پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

اثر مالکیت دولتی بانک‏ها بر رابطه علّی توسعه مالی- رشد اقتصادی در ایران

نویسندگان
1 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
2 دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
3 استادیار پژوهشگاه علوم و فرهنگ اسلامی
چکیده
از تبیین ارتباط میان توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی توسط شومپیتر یک قرن می‏گذرد، اما همچنان مجادلات جدی میان اقتصاددانان در این مورد وجود دارد. خصوصاً در مورد رابطه علّی میان توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای مختلف در بسیاری از موارد، رابطه علّیت معکوس تأیید شده است. یکی از مسائل مغفول مانده در این حوزه توجه به زیرساختارهایی است که می‏توانند در اثربخشی توسعه مالی بر رشد اقتصادی نقشی تعیین‏کننده ایفا کنند. یکی از ستون‏های توسعه مالی، کیفیت ارائه خدمات مالی بانکی است که تا حد زیادی تحت تأثیر مالکیت و مداخله دولت در بانکداری می‏باشد. مقاله حاضر با به کارگیری الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری به انجام آزمون علّیت سه‏متغیره میان رشد اقتصادی و شاخص‏های منتخب توسعه مالی و نیز شاخص چندبُعدی توسعه مالی که با استفاده از روش تجزیه مؤلفه‏های اصلی استخراج شده است، با لحاظ نمودن شاخص مالکیت دولتی بانک‏ها در مدل طی سال‏های 1358 تا 1389 می‏پردازد. یافته‏های این تحقیق گویای آن است که بر خلاف نتایج آزمون علّیت دومتغیره که علّیت معکوس از رشد اقتصادی به توسعه مالی را نشان می‏دهد، نتایج آزمون علّیت سه‏متغیره این ادعا را بجز در مورد دارایی‏های بانک‏های تجاری رد می‏کند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

The Effect of Government Ownership of Banks on the Causality of Finance-Growth in Iran

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Ali Falahi 1
Mohammad Ali Aboutorabi 2
Mohammad Ali Falahi 1
Mostafa Salimifar 1
Seyyed Mohammad Hosseini 3
1 Professor of Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
2 Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
3 Assistant Professor, Islamic Sciences and Culture Academy
چکیده English

One century has passed since the explanation of relationship between financial development and economic growth by Schumpeter. However, there are serious debates among economists in this regard. Especially, the causality relationship between economic growth and financial development, in most of the cases, the causality from economic growth to financial development is confirmed in different countries. One of the neglected issues in this field is to consider the infrastructures, which can play important roles in the effectiveness of financial development on economic growth. One pillar of the financial development is the quality of banking financial services, which to a great extent is influenced by ownership and intervention of government in banking system. This paper, by using VECM model, tests the tri-variate causality among economic growthand financial development in the presence of public ownership of banks index during 1980 to 2010. The results show that in contrast to the bi-variate causality tests, which indicate the adverse causality from economic growth to financial development, the tri-variate causality tests reject this claim except for the case of the commercial banks’ assets.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Financial Development
Banking financial services
Government ownership of banks
economic growth
Causality test
ابوترابی، محمدعلی (1388) بررسی روند شاخص‏های توسعه مالی و رابطه علّی آن با رشد اقتصادی در ایران طی سال‏های 84-1352؛ پایان‏نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد.
دادگر، یداله و نظری، روح اله (1388) ارزیابی شاخص‏های توسعه مالی در ایران؛ مجموعه مقالات اولین کنفرانس بین‏المللی توسعه نظام تأمین مالی در ایران، مرکز مطالعات تکنولوژی دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، تهران: 35-1.
سلیمی‏فر، مصطفی؛ رزمی، محمدجواد؛ ابوترابی، محمدعلی (1389) بررسی رابطه علّی شاخص‏های توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی در ایران؛ فصلنامه اقتصادمقداری، دوره 7، شماره 1: 103-75.
عصاری آرانی، عباس؛ ناصری، علیرضا و آقایی خوندابی، مجید (1387) توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی: مقایسه کشورهای نفتی عضو اوپک و غیرنفتی در حال توسعه، با استفاده از روش گشتاورهای تعمیم‏یافته (GMM)؛ تحقیقات اقتصادی، شماره 82: 161-141.
فلاحی، محمدعلی و ابوترابی، محمدعلی (1392) بررسی مقایسه‏ای نقش سیستم بانکی و بازار سهام در رشد اقتصادی: مطالعه موردی کشورهای منا؛ دو فصلنامه اقتصاد پولی، مالی، در دست چاپ.
گجراتی، دامودار (2002) مبانی اقتصادسنجی؛ ترجمه: حمید ابریشمی (1383) ویرایش چهارم، جلد اول، انتشارات دانشگاه تهران.
نظیفی، فاطمه (1383) توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی در ایران؛ فصلنامه پژوهشنامه اقتصادی، شماره14: 129-97.
نیلی، مسعود و راستاد، مهدی (1382) توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی؛ مجموعه مقالات سیزدهمین کنفرانس سیاست‏های پولی و ارزی، نقش نهادهای مالی در توسعه اقتصادی: عملکرد و چشم‏انداز- تجربه ایران، پژوهشکده پولی و بانکی: 96-71.
هادیان، ابراهیم و عظیمی حسینی، آنیتا (1383) محاسبه کارآیی نظام بانکی در ایران با استفاده از روش تحلیل فراگیر داده‏ها (DEA)؛ فصلنامه پژوهش‏های اقتصادی ایران، شماره 20: 26-1.
Aboutorabi, M. A. and Aboutorabi, N. (2012) Financial Development and Economic Growth in Iran: The Survey of the Trend of Financial Development Indicators and its Causality Relationship with Economic Growth in Iran; Lambert Academic Publishing (LAP): Saarbrücken, Germany.
Acemoglu, D.; Golosov, M. and Tsyvinski, A. (2008) Markets versus governments; Journal of Monetary Economics, 55: 159-189.
Andrianova, S. (2012) Public Banks and Financial Stability; Economics Letters, 116: 86-88.
Andrianova, S.; Demetriades, P. O. and Shortland, A. (2008) Government ownership of banks, institutions, and financial development; Journal of Development Economics, 85: 218-252.
Atkinson, A. B., and Stiglitz, J. (1980) Lectures on Public Economics; London: McGraw-Hill.
Baltagi, B. H.; Demetriades, P. O. and Law, S. H. (2009) Financial Development and Openness: Evidence from Panel Data; Journal of Development Economics, 89: 285-296.
Bittencourt, M. (2012) Financial Development and Economic Growth in Latin America: Is Schumpeter right?; Journal of Policy Modeling, 34: 341-355.
Boyreau-Debray, G. (2003) Financial Intermediation and Growth: Chinese Style; World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3027.
Burgess, R. and Pande, R. (2004) Do Rural Banks Matter? Evidence from the Indian Social Banking Experiment; Discussion Paper 4211, London: Centre for Economic Policy Research.
Calderon, C. and Liu, L. (2003) The Direction of Causality between Financial Development and Economic Growth; Journal of Development Economics, 72: 321-334.
Caporale, G. and Pittis, N. (1997) Causality and Forecasting in Incomplete System; Journal of Forecasting, 16: 425–437.
Caporale, G.; Howells, P. and Soliman, A. (2004) Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: The Causal Linkages; Journal of Economic Development, 29(1): 33–50.
Casselli, F.; Esquivel, G., and Lefort, F. (1996) Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-country Growth Empirics; Journal of Economic Growth, 1(3): 363-389.
Cecchetti, S. G., and Krause, S. (2001) Financial Structure, Macroeconomic Stability, and Monetary Policy; Working Paper 8354, National Bureau of Economic Research: Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Claus, I. and Grimes, A. (2003) Asymmetric Information, Financial Intermediation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: A Critical Review; Treasury Working Paper Series 03/19, New Zealand Treasury.
Corrigan, E. G. (1982) Are Banks Special?; 1982 Annual Report Essay, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis: www.minneapolisfed.org/pubs/ar/arl982a.cfm
Demetriades, P. O.; Du, J.; Girma, S. and XU, C. (2008) Does the Chinese Banking System Promote the Growth of Firms?; University of Leicester Discussion Paper in Economics No. 08/6.
Diamond, D. (1984) Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring; Review of Economic Studies, 51(3): 393-414.
Dine, I. S. (2005) Politicians and Banks: Political Influences on Government Owned Banks in Emerging Countries; Journal of Financial Economics, 77(2): 453-479.
Freixas, X. and Rochet, J. (1997) Microeconomics of Banking; MIT Press.
Gerschenkron, A. (1962) Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective; Harvard University Press.
Ghirmay, T. (2004) Financial Development and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Evidence from Time Series Analysis; African Development Review, 16(3): 415-432.
Goaied, M. and Sassi, S. (2010) Financial Development and Economic Growth in the MENA Region: What about Islamic Banking Development; Carthage: Institut des Hautes Etudes Commerciales.
Goldsmith, R. W. (1969) Financial Structure and Development: Study in Comparative Economies; New Hauen: Yale University Press.
Granger, C. W. J. (1988) Some Recent Development in a Concept of Causality; Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, 39(1-2): 199-211.
Guiso, L.; Sapienza, P., and Zingales, L. (2004) The Role of Social Capital in Financial Development; The American Economic Review, 94(3): 526-556.
Gur, N. (2012) Government Ownership of Banks, Job Creation Opportunities and Employment Growth; Economics Letters, 117: 509-512
Honohan, P. (2004) Financial Development, Growth, and Poverty: How Close Are the Links?; Policy Research Working Paper Series 3203, The World Bank.
James, B. A. (2008) What Are the Mechanisms Linking Financial Development and Economic Growth in Malaysia; Economic Modeling, 25(1): 38-53.
Jensen, M. C. and Meckling, W. H. (1976) Theory of the Firm, Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs, and Ownership Structure; Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4): 305-360.
Keho, Y. (2010) Effect of Financial Development on Economic Growth: Does Inflation Matter? Time Series Evidence from the UEMOA Countries; International Economic Journal, 24(3): 343-355.
Kendall M. G. and Stuart A. (1961) The Advanced Theory of Statistics; Vol. 2, Charles Griffin Publishers: New York.
King, Robert G., and Levine, R. (1993) Finance, Entrepreneurship, and Growth: Theory and Evidence; Journal of Monetary Economic, 32(3): 513-542.
La Porta, R.; Lopez-de-Silanes, F. and Shleifer, A. (2002) Government Ownership of Banks; Journal of Finance, 57(1): 265-301.
Levine, R. (1997) Financial Development and Economics Growth: Views and Agenda; Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2): 688-726.
Levine, R. (2001) Bank-Based or Market-Based Financial Systems: Which is Better?; NBER Working Paper No. 9138, Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Levine, R. (2002) Bank‐based or Market‐based Financial Systems: Which is Better?; Journal of Financial Intermediation, 11(4): 398-428.
Levine, R. (2005) Finance and growth: Theory, Evidence, and Mechanisms; in Handbook of Economic Growth; Eds. P. Aghion and S. Durlauf, Amsterdam: North-Holland Elsevier Publishers.
Levy Y. E.; Micco, A.; Panizza, U.; Detragiache, E. and Repetto, A. (2007) A Reappraisal of State-Owned Banks [with Comments];, Economia, 7(2): 209-259.
Loizides, J. and Vamvoukas, G. (2005) Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Trivariate Causality Testing; Journal of Applied Economics, 8: 125-152.
Lynch, D. (1996) Measuring Financial Sector Development: A Study of Selected Asia-Pacific Countries; The Developing Economies, 34: 3-33.
Manning, M. J. (2003) Finance Causes Growth: Can We Be So Sure?; Contributions to Macroeconomics, 3(1): 1-22.
Masih, R. and Khan, S. F. (2011) Is the Finance Led Growth Hypothesis Robust to Alternative Measures of Financial Development?; Applied Financial Economics, 21(9): 601-623.
Mc. Kinnon, R. (1973) Money and Capital in Economic Development; Washington D.C: Brooking Institute.
Micco, A. and Panizza, U. (2006) Bank Ownership and Lending Behavior; Economics Letters, 93(2): 248-254.
Micco, A.; Panizza, U. and Yanez, M. (2007) Bank Ownership and Performance: Does Politics Matter?; Journal of Banking and Finance, 31(1): 219-241.
Odedokun, M. O. (1996) Alternative Econometric Approaches for Analysis the Rule of the Financial Sector in Economic Growth: Time-Series Evidence from LDCs; Journal of Development Economics, 55: 119-146.
Ozatay, F. and Sak, G. (2002) Financial Liberalization in Turkey: Why Was the Impact on Growth Limited?; Emerging Markets Finance&Trade, 38(5): 6-22.
Quah, D. (1993) Empirical Cross-section Dynamics in Economic Growth; European Economic Review, 37(2-3): 426-434.
Rousseau, P. L. and Wachtel, P. (2002) Inflation Thresholds and the Finance-Growth Nexus; Journal of International Money and Finance, 21: 777-793.
Rousseau, P. L. and Xiao, S. (2007) Banks, stock markets, and China’s Great Leap Forward; Emerging Markets Review, 8, 206-217.
Rousseau, P. L., and Wachtel, P. (2005) Economic Growth and Financial Depth: Is the Relation Extinct Already?; UNU-WIDER Discussion Paper No. 2005/10.
Shaw, E. (1973) Financial Deeping in Economic Development, New York: Oxford University Press.
Stigler, G. (1967) Imperfection in the Capital Market; Journal of Political Economy, 75(3): 287-292.
Stiglitz, J. (1994) The Role of the State in Financial Markets; Proceedings of the World Bank Annual Conference on Economic Development 1993, Washington: World Bank.
Taboada, A. G. (2011) The Impact of Changes in Bank Ownership Structure on the Allocation of Capital: International Evidence; Journal of Banking & Finance, 35: 2528-2543.
Trablesi, M. (1998) Finance and Growth: Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries 1960-1996; Working Paper 0228, Economic Research Forum.
Wachtel, P. (2003) How Much Do We Really Know about Growth and Finance?; Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, 88: 33-47.
Wahid, A. N. M.; Shahbaz, M. and Azim, P. (2011) Inflation and Financial Sector Correlation: The Case of Bangladesh; International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 1(4): 145-152.
World Economic Forum, Davos (2012) Financial Development Report; USA Inc: New York, USA.
Zhang, J.; Wang, L., and Wang, S. (2012) Financial Development and Economic Growth: Recent Evidence from China; Journal of Comparative Economics, In Press.