پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی

بررسی اثر‎گذاری تغییرات ساختار سنی جمعیت بر درآمد سرانه در ایران به تفکیک کانال‎های اثرگذاری

نویسندگان
1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه بجنورد (نویسنده مسئول)
2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
3 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
چکیده
دربررسیعواملمؤثربررشد اقتصادی و درآمد سرانه، یکی از عوامل مهمو اثرگذار که کمتربه آنپرداخته شده، "ساختار سنیجمعیت"است. در تحقیق حاضر به منظور بررسی تأثیر تغییرات ساختار سنیجمعیت بر درآمد سرانه در ایران، ابتدا با استفاده از ادبیات موضوعِ مربوطه، مهمترین کانال‎های این اثرگذاری را مورد شناسایی قرار داده و سپس با توجه به ادبیات رشد نئوکلاسیک، به طراحی و استخراج یک مدلتجربی پرداختیم که نشان‎دهنده رابطه متغیرهای ساختار سنی جمعیت با درآمد سرانه باشد. در مرحله بعد، این مدل درسه تصریح جداگانه و به روش خودرگرسیون با وقفه‌های توزیعی برای دوره 89-1347 مورد آزمون تجربی قرار گرفت.
نتایجبرآورد مدل حاکی از کشش مثبت درآمد سرانه نسبت به عرضه نیروی کار (به عنوان کانال مستقیمِ اثرگذاریِتغییرات ساختار سنی جمعیت بر درآمد سرانه) میباشد. همچنین بررسی اثرات تغییر در سهم جمعیت درگروه‌های سنیِ 3 گانه از طریق کانال‌های غیرمستقیمِ اثرگذاری (کانال‌های پس‌انداز، سرمایه انسانی و مخارج دولت)، حاکی از کشش مثبتِ درآمد سرانه نسبت به افزایش سهم جمعیت در گروه سنیِ 15 تا 64 سال و کشش منفیِ درآمد سرانه نسبت به افزایش سهم جمعیت در دو گروه سنیِ زیر 15 سال و 65 سال و بالاتر ازطریق کانال‌های فوق می‌باشد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

The Effects of Changes in Population Age Structure on Per Capita Income in Iran Considering Effective Channels

نویسندگان English

masoud nikooghadam 1
Masoud Homayounifar 2
Mahmood Hooshmand 3
Mostafa Salimifar 3
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Bojnord
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, homayounifar@um.ac.ir
3 Professor of Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
چکیده English

On the factors affecting economic growth and per-capita income, the less attention has been paid to “population age structure”. We aim to investigate the effect of changes in population age structure on per capita income in Iran. To do this, we identify the most important effective channels according to review of literature. Then we design an empirical model that indicates the relationship between population age structure and per-capita income based on the neoclassical growth literature. In the next step we estimate and test the model in three specifications by Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) method during 1968-2010. The results indicate that the per capita income elasticity of labor supply (as the direct effectiveness channel of changes in population age structure on per capita income) is positive. In addition, indirect channels (which include savings, human capital and government spending) indicate that the per capita income elasticity with respect to an increase in share of population between the ages 15 to 64 is positive, and per capita income elasticity with respect to an increase in share of population below age 15 and above age 65 is negative.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Population Age Structure
Per Capita Income
ARDL
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