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1- Assistant Prof. in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran , enobahar@gmail.com
2- Professor in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
3- Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
Abstract:   (287 Views)
Aim and Introduction:
Crime is a multifaceted phenomenon that has always attracted the attention of economists, sociologists, lawyers and psychologists. Many experts and economic pioneers consider it necessary to achieve economic development to improve the level of security and reduce crime in the society. Since the occurrence of any phenomenon is affected by various factors, the occurrence of crime as an undesirable phenomenon is not excluded from this rule. Various economic, social and political factors affect crime in society. Identifying these factors can help a lot in the correct understanding and appropriate policy making in order to control and reduce the crime in the society. Meanwhile, one of the most important economic factors affecting crime is unemployment. Unemployment is one of the most important macroeconomic variables, which clearly affects many social phenomena, including crime. In this regard, the main goal of the present study is to investigate the relationship between unemployment and crime and to identify factors affecting crime in Iranian cities. The statistical population of the current research is the cities of Iran and the time range under investigation is 2016.
Methodology:
In this study, the spatial causality test was used to investigate the relationship between unemployment and crime. The first step in investigating the spatial causality relationship between the studied variables is to perform the spatial independence test of the variables. In the second step, the existence of spatial dependence between variables is examined. If both the investigated variables have a spatial structure and there is a spatial dependence between the two variables, then the spatial causality test is performed in the third step. Also, in this study, the spatial econometric approach has been used to estimate the crime model in the cities of Iran. In this regard, the presence of spatial effects in the model has been tested using Moran's I test, and then the most appropriate spatial regression model has been selected and estimated based on the Lagrange coefficient (LM) test and the LR diagnostic tests. The software packages used in this study are Matlab 2023, GeoDa 1.16 and Stata 15.
Findings:
The results of the spatial tests show that both crime index and unemployment rate have a spatial structure and the spatial dependence between these two variables was also confirmed, so in the third step, we tested the spatial causality. The results of the spatial causality test indicate the existence of a two-way causality relationship between the crime index and the unemployment rate. In other words, unemployment was the cause of crime during the period under investigation, and unemployment also led to the occurrence and increase of crime. According to the results of the spatial causality test, the crime model of the Iranian cities was developed in terms of the unemployment variable and several control variables. In order to estimate the model, the presence of spatial effects was first investigated using Moran's I test. The results of this test indicate the presence of spatial effects in the model. Also, based on the results of the Lagrange coefficient and likelihood ratio tests, the spatial durbin model (SDM) was chosen as the most appropriate method for estimating the model. The results of the estimation of the crime model indicate that the spatial lag coefficient is positive and significant at a high level, which indicates the existence of spatial dependence in the model. The positiveness of this coefficient shows that an increase in crime in one city causes an increase in crime in neighboring cities. Also, according to the results of the research, the variables of unemployment, industrialization, urbanization and divorce rate are the most important variables affecting crime in the cities of Iran. The results show positive and significant relationships between unemployment, urbanization, divorce rate, and crime. The industrialization variable also has a negative and significant effect on crime. Also, the spillover effect of the unemployment variable is negative and significant. Based on the results, the higher the unemployment rate and the urbanization rate in the cities, the crime rate will also increase in those cities. On the other hand, the more cities move toward industrialization and the number of industrial enterprises in them increases, the rate of crime will decrease.
Discussion and conclusion:
According to the results of the research, unemployment is one of the most important variables affecting crime in the cities of Iran, so it is recommended that the authorities pay special attention to the issue of employment and its proportional distribution in the cities of Iran and make more implementable nd sustainable policies in this area. Also, considering the excessive growth of urbanization in Iran and its harmful effects on the occurrence of crime, it is suggested that statesmen and policy makers create more facilities and pay special attention to rural areas to provide reverse migration to prevent the occurrence of various crimes, which occurs due to population increase in cities, the growth of informal settlement and issues like this
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Article Type: Original Research | Subject: Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics
Received: 2023/08/26 | Accepted: 2023/11/6

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