Volume 14, Issue 3 (2014)                   QJER 2014, 14(3): 45-64 | Back to browse issues page

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Pishbahar E, Baghestani M. Investigating the Economic Effects of Oil and Food Price Shocks on Macroeconomic Variables in Iran. QJER 2014; 14 (3) :45-64
URL: http://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-3612-en.html
Investigating the Economic Effects of Oil and Food Price Shocks on Macroeconomic Variables in Iran
Esmaeil Pishbahar * 1, Maryam Baghestani2
1- Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Tabriz University, Iran, E-mail: pishbahar@yahoo.com (Corresponding Author).
2- Tabriz University
Abstract:   (11091 Views)
The purpose of this study is to investigate the economic effects of world food and oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables (industrial output growth, inflation, stock price indices, lending rate, and real exchange rate) in Iran. For this purpose, the Structural Vector Auto Regressive (SVAR) method is used to examine the autonomous and simultaneous effects of food and oil prices within 3 models. This study uses monthly data from 21th March 2001 to 20th March 2011. The results show that oil price shock has small effect on industrial output growth. The biggest effect of the oil and food price shocks is observed on the exchange rate. About 5 percent of the variation in oil and food prices is explained by inflation shock. Furthermore, results from the simultaneous study of shocks to the oil price and global food price indicate that oil shocks significantly affect global food prices.  
Keywords: SVAR, Price shock, Food, Oil, Macroeconomic Variables
Full-Text [PDF 268 kb]   (3695 Downloads)    
Article Type: Research Paper | Subject: A1 - General Economics|C5 - Econometric Modeling|E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics :General|E2 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment|E4 - Money and Interest Rates
Received: 2012/10/17 | Accepted: 2013/03/14 | Published: 2014/08/23
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