TY - JOUR
T1 - Factors Affecting the Demand for General Practitioners and Forecasting it by 2001
TT - بررسی عوامل موثر بر تقاضای پزشک عمومی و پیش بینی تعداد پزشک عمومی تا سال 1390
JF - mdrsjrns
JO - mdrsjrns
VL - 7
IS - 3
UR - http://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-1621-en.html
Y1 - 2007
SP - 113
EP - 125
KW - General Practitioner
KW - elasticity
KW - Demand Function
KW - Forecast
KW - Workforce Planning
N2 - Due to the lack of General Practitioners (GP) in the past two decades in Iran, increasing the number of General Practitioners has been on the strategic agenda for health sector. However, this was an appropriate action for the time but, these augments unfortunately continued without scientific considerations, while these were based on the needs of society in that time. This led to some problems for all sectors in the health system. Unemployment, misemployment, underemployment were the results of these policies. Government suffered from heavy cost of educating General Practitioners. the system faced with inequality in their performance as well. Because of the importance of the subject, this research is done for avoiding such problems. It uses mathematical and economic models and techniques to estimate the number of GP from 2006 to 2011, which is believed to be essential for the health system. In this research, Cob-Douglas production function and partial adjustment model have been used for estimating GP labor demand function, then using growth rates of variables and growth mean of the period for each variable, the needed number of GP has been estimated. The future need of GP for years of 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is respectively, 3864, 4507, 5282, 6224, 7384, and 9011. The elasticity is also calculated for the variables: (RInv), (RVA), (L). Point elasticities for the above variables are respectively 0.035, 0.041, and 0.01.
M3
ER -