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Showing 141 results for Risk


Volume 0, Issue 0 (1-2024)
Abstract

The challenge of water scarcity poses a significant environmental challenge for the agricultural sector, jeopardizing the sustainable production of vital crops like wheat. Iranian provinces that produce wheat have varying water resources and climatic conditions. These differences have resulted in distinct economic benefits and environmental risks in wheat production among the provinces. In this study, the water footprint of wheat in each province was calculated from 2000 to 2020, and its environmental costs were deducted from the gross margin. Consequently, the social benefit was considered as the return of the wheat production portfolio in each province to manage the risk of sustainable production. Subsequently, the portfolio theory was employed through quadratic mathematical programming to minimize the social benefit-risk and determine the proportion of wheat cultivation in each province for optimal portfolio and sustainable production. The results showed that the provinces of Khuzestan (21.6%), Fars (17.1%), Hamedan (16.1%), Kurdestan (13.2%), Khorasan Razavi (11.4%), Golestan (11.3%), Qazvin (5%), and Kermanshah (4.3%) are in the optimal portfolio. In the optimal portfolio, a significant share of wheat production was related to the provinces with low risk in production (Khuzestan and Fars). The findings suggest that it is necessary to consider economic risks along with environmental risks to achieve sustainable production in the long run. As a result, the eastern and central provinces (Sistan and Baluchestan, South Khorasan, Semnan, Isfahan, Yazd) with the highest water footprint were removed from the optimal portfolio, and the western provinces with higher gross margin and lower water footprint were replaced with a larger share (Kermanshah, Hamedan, and Kurdistan).

 

Volume 1, Issue 0 (1-2022)
Abstract

Aims A family history of obesity, physical inactivity, and an unhealthy lifestyle was associated with an increased risk of diabetes in young individuals. Most published studies had focused on single risk factors such as BMI, Physical activity, and dietary lifestyle, while the combined effect and existence of those factors were largely neglected.
Methods This was a cross-sectional study conducted on 666 male students. Based on their family history of diabetes, their anthropometric measurements were also taken, and their BMI was calculated and categorised based on WHO standards.
Findings The results showed a significant correlation between obesity, family history, and diabetes, with a significant correlation between diabetes and obesity and also had a high positive correlation. While remaining correlations were also significant.
Conclusion The study concluded that a high proportion of students are at risk of diabetes and recommended an integrated intervention program to encourage healthy eating habits and physical activity and improve awareness.

 

Volume 1, Issue 2 (6-2013)
Abstract

Aim: Tobacco use is one of the major causes of death worldwide and the most preventable risk factor of the coronary heart disease. The purpose of this study was to determine attitudes, risk perception and perceived vulnerability toward to water pipe (WP) smoking among male students in Zarandieh city of Iran. Methods: This cross-sectional descriptive study was carried out on 400 male adolescents in 2011-2012. A multiple-stage sampling protocol was used. The participants completed a self-report questionnaire about demographics, knowledge, attitude and beliefs about WP smoking and their tobacco use background. Data were analyzed by SPSS16. Findings: The prevalence of WP smoking was 72 (18%). Also 50% of participants believed water pipe smoking is less harmful compared to cigarettes. The mean score of knowledge, attitude, and risk perception for non smokers was higher from smokers (knowledge 4.9±2.1, attitude 19.5±4.3 and risk perception 18.6±3.3 versus 3.4±1.5, 15.6±5.5 and 15.4±4.3 respectively), whereas smokers reported a fairly high level of perceived stress and depression (perceived vulnerability). Conclusion: Noticing the side effects of tobacco use and the high prevalence of incorrect perceived WP smoking beliefs among students, provision of educational programs for the correction of the beliefs of students regarding WP smoking is recommended.

Volume 1, Issue 2 (9-2011)
Abstract

Outsourcing means strategic use of other company's resources to accomplish business processes, which can be in the form of outsourcing or offshore outsourcing. One of the important risks of outsourcing projects is selecting an inappropriate contractor. Contractor selection process is very complex because of many and sometimes contradictive criteria. So it needs accurate investigations. The purpose of this research is to design a framework for selecting an appropriate contractor in outsourcing and offshore outsourcing and to specify the weight of each criterion. Method of data gathering is questionnaire which is distributed among internal and external managers and experts. This framework could be helpful for the managers of organizations in contractor selection decision making processes and causes risk reduction in these projects. The results showed that there are twenty important criteria in outsourcing and twenty four criteria in offshore outsourcing; some of them are contractor's innovation, financial stability and cultural adaptation. Keywords: Outsourcing, Offshore outsourcing, Contractor, Criteria, Capability.

Volume 1, Issue 2 (9-2020)
Abstract

In addition to diagnostic measures in the early stages of the widespread disease of COVID-19, prevention of the presence of individuals in high-risk environments, along with the proper distribution of population and services, is also effective in controlling the spread of the disease. The epidemic model, is based on population and movement. The aim is to introduce hazardous maps at the outbreak of corona disease and to explain the framework for their preparation and application based on issues related to resident behaviors. This research has been done by the method of logical reasoning and by analytical study of the existing samples, the components that are effective in preparing these maps and updating them. To this end, after the typology of the maps, the results evaluation criteria were validated from the perspective of the outputs. According to the research results, the dynamics of human movement data are key to estimating spatial interactions in these maps; Because of the social distance, staying home, and closing down jobs, fundamental changes occur in individual and group movements. Using different sources of information can be provided, the platform for participation of different groups of users using mapping maps is provided with an active and inactive demographic approach and increased efficiency. The development of such maps is a collaboration between the fields of epidemiology, health, environmental psychology, and public planning and design, especially urban design, to ensure that integrated studies based on the dynamics of location-based behaviors greatly enhance the validity of the maps.

Volume 1, Issue 3 (9-2016)
Abstract

Background: low back pain is a common health problem that has many consequences, including disability and absence from work. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of Low Back Pain among women referred to Quds clinic in Tehran, Iran. Material and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on women referred to Quds clinic, in East of Tehran. A total of 100 patients were studied over a period of one month. Two questionnaires were used for this study. The first one contains general information such as age, height, weight, Body Mass Index (BMI), education level, smoking and physical activity. Also the participants were asked whether over the past two weeks had LBP or not and if yes their pain severity was measured through Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). The second questionnaire was Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire (RDQ) that was only available to persons that expressed a report of pain over the past two weeks. Data were analyzed using SPSS. Results: 52 patients (52%) of the samples reported LBP. Also significant relationship between LBP and functional disability was shown (P < 0.05). More than 48% of patients who had LBP were physically low performance. Age, weight, body mass index, physical activity hours, number of pregnancy and parity and level of education were significantly associated with the severity of LBP (P < 0.05) whereas height, employment status and cigarette smoking were not significantly associated with LBP (P > 0.05). Conclusion: The results of this study showed individual suffering from LBP were more likely to suffer from disability.

Volume 1, Issue 4 (12-2012)
Abstract

In recent times issues such as competition, technological complexities, specialization of tasks and cost increases causes organizations to reconsider their managerial models and to turn to new strategies for reaching competitive advantage. Two such strategies are concentration on core capabilities and the transfer of some activities to external organizations (outsourcing). In line with these trends banks in order to give appropriate services to customers, decrease costs, upgrade service quality, improve performance, increase flexibility, gain access to new skills and technologies and focus on key capabilities, outsource some of their activities. Although outsourcing can have advantages for organizations, it has risks which must be effectively managed. The purpose of this research is to identify these risks and investigate their impact on business process outsourcing of banks.  Tejarat bank of Iran was selected as a case study. The data gathering tool of this paper was a questionnaire that was distributed among the experts in the field and managers of Tejarat bank. The results show that among identified risks, strategic risks were rejected and the three risks of financial failure, performance and social-psychological kind were accepted as being valid by experts. It was further identified that performance risks have the highest importance among other risks of business process outsourcing.

Volume 2, Issue 2 (8-2012)
Abstract

The main goal of this study is the classification of international risks facing Iranian automotive companies activated in international markets. Also, the examination of the relationship among these risks and the selection of entry mode to various countries by these companies is another goal of this research. The research population of this study is the factories in automotive industry which has entered foreign markets in recent 5 years (1385-1390). Analysis even data surface is elected "Company-Project" and exploratory factor analysis test is used for the classification of risks. In this manner, international risks are classified in the four categories of risks; specific-host country risk, specific-industry risk, specific-company risk, and specific-home country risk. Also, the relationship between international risks and the selection of entry mode is examined by Spearman correlation test and its results are the confirmation of relation specific-host country risk and specific-industry risk with the selection of the entry mode. In other words, according to findings, with increase in the mentioned risks, the export entry mode has been considered and with decreasing of the risks, the entry mode has inclined to the J.V. and foreign direct investment. On the other hand, it has been identified that the relationship between the entry mode, specific-industry risk, and specific-home country risk is not meaningful.  

Volume 2, Issue 3 (12-2013)
Abstract

In this study, the human health risk of mercury due to consumption of croaker (Otolithes ruber) in Mahshahr, the Persian Gulf, , was evaluated using atomic absorbtion spectrophotometer)and cold vapor techniques to measure the mercury concentration in muscle samples of 30 fresh croakers . A. Result showed the average concentration of mercury in croaker  muscle was 0.354±0.09 µg/ g of fresh wet weight, which was less than the allowable amount for human consumption determined by the international organizations such as USFDA and WHO, but more than the allowable amount for human consumption determined by MAFF and the USEPA. HQ Index was above 1 (1.18). In addition, the calculations indicated that daily and weekly mercury uptake for the Iranian consumers, according to Statistical Yearbook of Iran Fisheries organization (the amount consumed per capita),  is lower than the guideline values (PTWI and PTDI) provided by WHO, USFDA and more than USEPA. Therefore, the consumption of the croaker might be associated with some threat to the consumer’s health particularly pregnant women, fetuses and children from mercury but consumption permitted rate of 20gper dayand138 gper week is recommended for other people.

Volume 2, Issue 4 (3-2013)
Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate different risks of e-banking in private and public banks of Iran. Despite the certain benefits, e-banking carries tremendous risks. The major risks that are associated with e-banking are strategic, operational, legal and reputational risks. Security is considered the central operational risk of e-banking. For example; breach of security allowing unauthorized access to customer information can be classified as an operational risk, but it also exposes the bank to legal and reputational risks. The methodology used for this study is Questionnaire (AHP), and statistical software for data collection and analysis. Senior managers and vice-chancellor of private and public banks are the research population. Finally, based on the research findings, a few suggestions will be offered for electronic banks' risk management in public and private banks.   Keywords: Electronic Banking, Strategic Risk, Operational Risk, Reputational Risk, Legal Risk

Volume 2, Issue 4 (12-2014)
Abstract

Conflagration of forests and rangelands is one of the most frequent events in Iran. It is regarded as one of the most important parts of land degradation that occurred due to range destruction and desertification. This study was conducted in Boroujerd, Lorestan Province in west of Iran in 2013 to determine the fire risk model. The data prepared for the study area involved the vegetation types, land use, elevation, slope, aspect, standard topographic map and mean annual climatic data (evaporation, rainfall and temperature). Landsat ETM+ data were used for the image analysis. Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) model was applied to weigh and generate the fire risk map. Results showed that the highest weight of factors has been given to the land use because land use contribute to the maximum extent due to inflammability factor. The second highest weight was related to rainfall since it caused the biomass growth (fuel factor). Land use and rain played important roles in the modeling of fire risk zonation. The third one was attributed to the evaporation because of fuel drying and highly inflammability. The other variables comparatively had less impact on fire risk. Based on the statistics achieved for different weight classes, the map was reclassified into five classes as very low, low, moderate, high and very high in order to generate fire risk area map. Also, final map showed that most of the fires which occurred in the last year (5 fire control points about 4812.323 ha) might be put in the firing class of very high risk. Finally, about 42353.36 ha of the total area fell in the class of very high fire risk. The results indicated that 90% of burned areas were located in high risk class.

Volume 2, Issue 4 (12-2014)
Abstract

Aim: By understanding women’s perceptions of the risk factors for osteoporosis, improved preventive programs can be designed to modify misconceptions and improve understanding of the condition. This study aimed to explore Kurdish-Iranian women’s perceptions of the risk factors for osteoporosis. Methods: Sixteen women with osteoporosis referred to osteoporosis screening units at the private and governmental centers were interviewed through purposeful sampling between January and July 2015. Inclusion criteria included a diagnosis of osteoporosis for at least six months, T-score below -2.5, age 50 years and over, and ability to attend and participate in the study. All focus groups and face-to-face semi-structured interviews were tape-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Data were analyzed using conventional content analysis. To confirm precision of the data, the following criteria were employed: credibility, conformability, dependability and transformability. Findings: Overall, the perceived risk factors were broadly classified into non-modifiable and modifiable factors. Non-modifiable factors included the sub-themes of genetic factors and hormonal changes. Modifiable factors comprised the sub-themes of limited legal and administrative systems, cultural-environmental and socio-economic factors, lack of understanding the disease and its treatment, and poor health priorities. Conclusion: The risk factors for osteoporosis from women's perceptions can be classified into non-modifiable and modifiable factors. These results can be useful to design a gender-specific risk assessment tool and develop strategies and intervention programs for preventing osteoporosis in women.

Volume 2, Issue 4 (12-2022)
Abstract

Non-epistemic values in scientific reasoning bring many discussions. One way to justify the role of these values is the argument from inductive risk. The aim of this article is to examine a version of this argument that is presented by Douglas. By raising the question about "evidential sufficiency", Douglas advances her argument to justify the influence of non-epistemic values. Assuming the correctness of Douglas' argument, we try to determine the answer of "evidential sufficiency" based on the conclusion of her argument. Even considering both epistemic and non-epistemic values, we will show that the question of sufficiency will not have a proper answer. Because to determine evidential sufficiency, we will either confront circularity or force to add other ambiguous things. Also, we will explain that Douglas should have sought the "evidential sufficiency" by emphasizing more on the practice of scientists in actuality, in which there is no requirement to incorporate scientific claims with policy-making claims. This criticism is sympathetic to some other criticisms of Douglas, according to which she incorporated pragmatic and epistemic domains of science.
 

Volume 3, Issue 3 (7-2001)
Abstract

The purpose of this study was to compare various direct techniques of measuring attitudes toward risk. The Equally Likely Certainty Equivalent with a Purely Hypothetical Risky prospect (ELCE-PH), The Equally Likely Certainty Equivalent with a Hypothetical but Realistic Risky prospect (ELCE-R) and Probability of Winning Demanded (PWD) models were used to elicit the risk attitude of a sample of farmers. These methods were then compared and evaluated. The criteria employed were (1) sample respondent capability in answering questions, (2) means and corresponding risk attitudes classification and (3) distribution of risk attitudes. According to the first criterion, the results showed PWD technique is the best one. While there are no differences among the three direct techniques on the basis of the second criterion. Also, the findings indicate that respondent education and age, family education, level of hypothetical income and a greater explanation by other people during interview have an influence on respondent capability in answering questions. These characteristics should therefore be considered when choosing the appropriate technique.

Volume 3, Issue 4 (10-2001)
Abstract

The most commonly used utility functional forms are reviewed and their properties compared. Then, using data collected from West Azarbaijan province, utility functions are estimated and absolute risk aversion coefficients measured. Exponential and expopower utility functions classified all farmers as risk averse, but quadratic and cubic utility functions classified 75% and 65% of farmers as risk-averse, respectively. Findings in this study indicated that alternative utility functions may classify farmers’ risk attitudes in different ways.

Volume 4, Issue 1 (2-2018)
Abstract

Aims: Infections by extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) and carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) are increasing problems in pediatrics and are usually associated with higher hospital costs and mortality rates. The aims of this study were the statistical investigation of the worldwide prevalence and risk factors of ESBL and CPE family members among pediatric population.
Instruments and Methods: From October 1, 1995 to July 27, 2017, some keywords including “ESBLs”, “carbapenemase”, “pediatrics”, “children”, and “risk factor” were searched in the searching databases such as Google Scholar, Embase, Scopus, PubMed, and Web of Science among original research articles. The univariate and multivariate analysis of the collected data was performed by Graph Pad Prism 6.1 software.
Findings: The mean percentage of ESBL production was 20.23±22.31 and the mean percentage of CPE was 1.81±2.77. E. coli (n=991) and K. pneumonia (n=627) were the predominant ESBL-producers. Nephrology (n=5005) and NICU (n=1805) were predominant hospital wards. ESBL-PE had significantly higher prevalence in the infants unit (OR=0.9832, 95% CI=12.271-19.519; p<0.001). Moreover, ICU ward was a significant and independent risk factor for CPE acquisition (OR=0.849, 95% CI=2.211-5.415; p=0.0035). ESBL-PE and CPE were significantly isolated from blood samples (OR=0.9276, 95% CI=1.508-2.433, p<0.0001) and fecal specimens (OR=0.968, 95% CI=2.829-5.133, p<0.0001), respectively.
Conclusion: Most of risk factors between ESBL-PE and CPE are similar including previous hospitalization and prolonged use of antibiotics, cephalosporins, and previous colonization. Other possible potential risk factors that should be considered include presence of catheters and travel history. Detection of risk factors provides useful information for formulation of infection control policy.

Volume 4, Issue 1 (7-2019)
Abstract

Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) are injuries in the musculoskeletal system which is also named as “repetitive motion injury”or “repetitive stress injury” or “overuse injury” [1]. These disorders are the most prevalent and costly injuries which effect on suffered people’ life. As MSDs are multifactorial injuries, implementing a multidimensional musculoskeletal health program may be effective [2]. MSDs can arise from a sudden exertion due to lifting a heavy object [3], arising from repetitive strain, from repeated exposure to force, vibration, or awkward posture [4]. MSDs can affect many different parts of the body including shoulders and extremities (arms, legs, feet, and hands) neck, and upper and lower back [5]. Carpal tunnel syndrome, back pain, tension neck syndrome, tendinitis , hand-arm vibration syndrome and epicondylitis, are types of MSDs [4].The development of Musculoskeletal Disorders: When a worker is exposed to MSD risk factors, they begin to fatigue which may outruns his/ her body’s recovery system that in turn may be resulted in musculoskeletal imbalance And finally over time, leading to musculoskeletal imbalance persists MSDs develop [6] MSDs can arise from the interaction of physical risk factors with ergonomic risk factors such as biomechanical load, heavy loads, repetitive motions or from static positions, repetitive heavy loading [7-8] , Individual factors like gender and obesity [8-9], psychological factors such as workplace stressors, high job demands, low social support, overall job strain or job dissatisfaction [10-14] .However, social, and occupational factors such as workplace design, standing, twisting or tension in the body, posture during work repeated motion, or forces needed to perform actions on the job and vibration exposure [4,15-16]. These risk factors can be broken up into two categories: workrelated risk factors as ergonomic risk factors and individual-related risk factors. Thus, the basic cause of MSDs is exposure to MSD risk factors – both work-related risk factors and individual-related risk factors should be considered in controlling MSDs [17].


Volume 4, Issue 3 (8-2016)
Abstract

Aim: Occupational health with the goals of providing, maintaining and enhancing the physical, psychological and social health of employees and preventing harmful factors is important.
One of the ways of preventing occupational hazards is to identify them in the workplace. So the purpose of this research is to identify hazards and risk assessment in order to provide the necessary information to help make the decisions required to reduce the occupation-related risks.
Methods: In this study, we used a combination of FMEA and AHP methods to assess the occupational risks of the cement industry.
Findings: In this study, eight hazards were first examined by the FMEA method, which was the highest risk priority number for occupational hazards. Then the hierarchical analysis process technique was used to evaluate and rank the hazards, with the risk of working at an elevated level with a relative weight of 0.2234 in the first place and the dangers of working with machinery with a relative weight of 0.20864.
Conclusion: The manufacturing activities in this industry are required to work in different conditions such as high altitude, work and contact with dangerous rotating and moving equipment, and high-risk manufacturing processes that provide suitable safety controls and structures for the protection of human capital and even upgrading machines. Therefore, the health of the staff and the work environment is necessary.

Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2019)
Abstract

Aim:LBP in the nursing profession remains an important health issue. This study aims to assess whether a theory-based interactive social media intervention could change job-related risk behaviors among nursing personnel.
Instrument and Methods: This is a community-randomized controlled trial. Three settings of hospitals will randomly be assigned to the study arms: Intervention setting 1 receiving an in-person educational package; intervention setting 2 receiving the same material a web-based, and a control setting receiving nothing. The intervention would contain materials related to occupational risk behaviors and will try to promote the knowledge, attitude, skill, and self-efficacy of nurses on low back pain (LBP) preventive behaviors. The primary outcome will be reduction in low back pain. The study also will assess whether the intervention could reduce pain-related disability and improve the quality of life.
Discussion:Occupational (LBP) among nurses could adversely affect both patients’ and nurses’ health. This study is an attempt to see if social media could play a role to guide the development and implementation of future interventions.


Volume 4, Issue 3 (12-2022)
Abstract

During the last century, the idea of material progress and domination of nature, despite its undeniable achievements on various levels of life, has posed several dangers and environmental damages to human life. According to the evidence and research conducted on the destructive environmental issues in Iran, our country is not safe from what can be called the risk of progress trap. In the present study, the research question addresses the effects of changing and destroying the natural and ancient texture of land on the health of life sphere. In response to this question, a hypothesis has been tested indicating that conscious and unconscious interventions and manipulations in the natural context of the ecosystem and climate can expose the ever- diverse and balanced nature of Iran to erosion and inevitable bad frequencies. The present article method is descriptive-analytic and critical approach is used as a theoretical framework. The theoretical foundations of “climate” in political geography and “life-world” in phenomenological philosophy are used as tools for analysis.

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