Showing 9 results for Volatility
Ayat Karami, Mansour Zibaei,
Volume 8, Issue 3 (10-2008)
Abstract
Since Iran is one of the most important countries in producing as well as exporting pistachio and dates Therefore, in this study after calculating exchange rate volatility using the criterion of standard deviation of exchange rate moving average, the effects of this volatility on the export supply of mentioned crops was investigated. Autoregressive distributed lag model, one of the co-integration analysis methods, was used to reach the aim. Export supply function of pistachio to German, Unit Kingdom and Italy and export supply of dates to German, Unit Kingdom and Turkey were estimated. The results indicated that exchange rate volatility has different effects on export of the crops to understudy countries. Therefore in relation to trade policies, the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade should be considered with respect to destined country.
Reza Raei, Saeed Bajalan,
Volume 8, Issue 4 (1-2009)
Abstract
This paper examines the calendar anomalies in daily return of the Tehran stock market. ARCH and GARCH models are employed to capture the wide range of different calendar anomalies exist in the literature.
This study finds the evidence of strong Esfand and Mehr effects in the stock return. In addition, the results show that the stock market return has decreased with the lapses of time. After identifying and removing the calendar effects from daily return, BDS statistic is used to test the presence of any remaining non-linearity in the residuals before employing the GARCH models. The BDS test shows that there is a high probability of the dependency between residuals in spite of removing calendar anomalies. The results confirm that both the ARCH and GARCH models have considerable success in modeling dependencies. Finally, the importance of calendar effects in return forecasting is tested. The conclusion is that the inclusion of calendar effects improves the forecast accuracy. However, simple regression which includes calendar effects has better performance than the GARCH (1, 1) models.
Samad Aziznejad, Akbar Komijani,
Volume 17, Issue 1 (4-2017)
Abstract
Exchange rate is the key variable in each economy. This paper tries to examine the effects of volatilities in exchange rate market on selected macroeconomic variables in Iran, and to present some strategic recommendations. Inspiring by Danmola method, this paper uses the variance decomposition and impulse response function based on Cholesky decomposition of Vector-autoregressive method. The findings show that real exchange rate volatility has the most effect on profit rate of the short-run deposits during 2001:Q1-2012:Q4. Following profit rate of short-run deposits, the highest variation in inflation rate is explained by real exchange rate volatility. The economic growth is affected positively by exchange rate volatility (EEV) in both short- and long-run, but it is influenced negatively by EEV in the midterm. On the other hand, trade balance is deteriorated by shocks in real exchange rate with short lags. Our findings are compatible with those of similar studies among developing countries.
Saeid Shafiei, Kazem Yavari, Bahram Sahabi,
Volume 17, Issue 2 (6-2017)
Abstract
Economic theories suggest that increasing uncertainty induces households to reduce the growth of their consumption expenditure. This study aims to examine how to change the consumption expenditure of Iranian households due to uncertainty in government expenditure. To do this, using annual data for 1978-2012, first, a measure for government expenditure uncertainty was introduced, and then its effects on household consumption behavior were analyzed. The results indicate that uncertainty in government expenditure has a negative and significant effect on growth of household consumption expenditure. On the other hand, the effect of government spending uncertainty on consumption expenditure of durable goods is positive. In other words, Iranian households in increasing uncertainty settings face with the growth of consumption spending on durable goods. Thus, the government needs to create transparency in fiscal policy, to reduce policy uncertainty for households as far as possible.
Volume 17, Issue 3 (9-2013)
Abstract
Abstract: Illogical limits of the stock prices have led to ambiguities in optimal resource allocations. Price limit prevents increase or decrease in stock prices with respect to the predetermined prices. There are different viewpoints on implementation of stock price limits. The negative or positive effects of implementing stock price limits haven’t yet been demonstrated. Those who advocate implementation of price limits claim that these measurements can reduce price volatility while not intervening in the transactions. On the contrary, the critics argue that price limit will make more volatility ( hypothesis of volatility extension), will prevent stock price to reach the balance level ( hypothesis for delay in reaching real price) and it will also intervene in transactions through limiting stock prices ( hypothesis of intervention in transactions). Different models and methods have been provided for measuring effectiveness of price limits in different global stock exchanges each of which are appropriate for certain conditions. To study the delay in reaching the real price, Z binomial test was used and Wilcoxon test was applied for studying intervention in transactions. 32 companies have been reviewed through the current research since 2000 to 2009. The results indicated that price limit can extend volatility and make delays in reaching the real prices. However, it doesn’t influence on intervening the transactions
Mr. Zana Mozaffari, Alireza Kazerooni, Mr. Farid Rahimi,
Volume 18, Issue 1 (4-2018)
Abstract
The main objective of this research is to investigate the impact of financial structure on the Iranian economic growth volatility by applying GARCH & ARDL methods using quarterly data over the 1991-2015 period. The results indicate that financial development and financial structure have negative and positive effects on the economic growth volatility in Iran, respectively. The results reveal that financial structure in Iran is facing with several challenges, so that regardless of negative impact of financial development on economic growth volatility, the financial structure leads to economic growth volatility. In addition, oil revenues, government final consumption expenditure and capital formation have significant and negative relationships with economic growth volatility in the period under study.
Dr Reza Ranjpour, Dr Mohammad Reza Salmani, Dr Zahra Karimi Tekanloo, Dr Nosrat Mokhtarzadeh Khaneghahi,
Volume 19, Issue 1 (4-2019)
Abstract
The exchange rate as an important macroeconomic variable affects various economic sectors from different aspects. This study aims to determine the effects of exchange rate shocks on the performance of economic sectors of East Azerbaijan Province. To this end, first exchange rate shock is calculated using a non-linear Markov-Switching (MS) model and is included as an explanatory variable in the final model. To estimate the nonlinear model based on the maximum likelihood function, a MS model with two regimes and a pause, i.e., MSIH (2)-AR (1), is selected. Then, a panel data model with varying coefficients is estimated by pooled mean group estimator (PMGE). The model is used to analyze the effect of uncertainty in real effective exchange rate on value-added of 15 economic sectors of East Azerbaijan Province over the period 2000-2013. The results indicate positive and significant effects of capital, labor and the exports on value-added of economic sectors. Among the 15 districts of the province, exchange rate volatility has a negative and significant influence on value-added and production of 4 out of 15 sectors. The results call for paying more attention to exchange rate volatility and adopt effective policies to remove its adverse effects.
Dr. Ahmad Ezzati-Shourgoli, Dr. Hassan Khodavaisi,
Volume 21, Issue 1 (3-2021)
Abstract
In the macroeconomics and international economics literature, the rate of change in domestic prices as a result of exchange rate changes is known as the degree of exchange rate pass-through. This is important because the shocks to the economy are transmitted from the exchange rate channel to the relative prices of the economy. In addition, the degree of exchange rate pass-through is affected by microeconomic and macroeconomic variables, so that the degree of exchange rate pass-through will change along with their changes. Therefore, in the present study, the impact of exchange rate on domestic prices is estimated by using the Time-varying Parameter Factor Augmented Structural VAR with Stochastic Volatility (TVP-SFAVAR-SV) and applying seasonal data from 1990 to 2018. First, the latent variable of the amount of speculative activities in the Iranian economy is modeled and estimated. The results show that the highest speculation belongs to the periods 1994 -1996, 1998-1999 and 2011- 2012. Also, the shock to the speculative activities variable in the period under study has led to an increase in inflation. The estimated exchange rate pass-through coefficient has not been constant. Historical variance decomposition analysis of exchange rate pass-through in the presence of the effective factors also shows that the almost all exchange rate fluctuations can be explained by inflation and exchange rate fluctuations, and production gaps.
Dr Samad Hekmati Farid, Mrs. Fatemeh Havasbeigi, Mr. Ali Moridian,
Volume 24, Issue 1 (3-2024)
Abstract
Introduction:
As Stern et al (2019) argued, energy is considered an important determinant of sustainable economic growth. Energy sources meet the needs of various sectors such as industry, modern agriculture, commerce, transportation, etc. Therefore, electricity consumption (energy consumption) is vital for the growth of an economy.
Electricity is the backbone of today's industrial and consumer economies. Its share in the energy mix is increasing due to increasing per capita income, electrification of transportation, use of electronic devices, and demand for consumer and industrial products. However, developed countries are moving towards energy efficiency technology to offset the increasing demand for electricity and its effects (Bildirici et al., 2012). Discussions about the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and some macroeconomic variables have been high among researchers and policymakers in recent decades (Ehigiamusoe and Lean, 2019; Ehigiamusoe et al., 2020). The aim of our study is to examine the dynamics of the relationship between electricity consumption, ecological footprint and real GDP in Iran by dividing GDP into oil GDP and non-oil GDP. The logic behind this is that Iran's growth model is dependent on oil exports and public sector spending, with no diversification of oil revenues to ensure sustainable development. In fact, although Iran's successive development plans have emphasized the diversification and promotion of the non-oil private sector as a priority goal, today this goal can be achieved by reducing dependence on oil. Our aim is to provide a comprehensive review of energy consumption-environment-GDP dynamics with oil on one hand and energy-environment-GDP non-oil dynamics on the other hand. Therefore, we address the dichotomy between the oil and non-oil sectors and its consequences on the efficiency of energy policies and sustainable development.
Methodology:
This study uses the Vector Auto-Regressive model of time-varying parameters (TVP-VAR) to examine the inter-temporal dynamics between Iran's real GDP (oil, non-oil), electricity consumption and ecological footprint during 1967-2018. The results show that the TVP-VAR model is useful for examining the dynamics of the relationship between electricity consumption, real GDP and ecological footprint.
Results and Discussion:
The results show that the reaction functions of GDP with oil to positive shocks of environmental effect and electricity consumption are significantly different over time. Similar results exist for the impulse responses of the environmental effect to the positive shock of electricity consumption and GDP. We find the positive response of GDP to electricity consumption before 1978, negative between 1979 and 1991 and after 2003. The reactions of domestic gross production to environmental impact shocks between 1979 and 1986 are negative in the 8th and 12th period horizons and positive in other periods.
The shock response of energy consumption to GDP is positive in four periods during 1981 to 2006 and is negative in other years. It is negative in the 8-period horizon between 1976 and 2004, as well as in the 12-period horizon between 1971 and 1999 and positive in other years.
In relation to the response functions of the environmental impact of GDP and energy consumption in the horizon of 4 periods, the effect is positive, but it is positive in the horizon of 8 periods except for the years 1994-2000 and in the horizon of 12 periods except for the years 1979 to 1999 positive effects are observed.
Conclusion:
The results show that regimes with high and low volatility of real GDP (oil and non-oil), electricity consumption and environmental impact shocks have asymmetric effects (positive or negative) on these variables. In particular, the high fluctuations in electricity consumption during 1980s, 2000s, and 2010s likely affect real oil GDP and the environmental effect, negatively, But negatively, it leads to a decrease in real non-oil GDP growth. In the 1981s, 2001s, and 2011s, low volatility of electricity consumption had a negative impact on environmental impact, and low volatility of real oil and non-oil GDP had a positive impact on environmental impact.
In addition, real oil GDP fluctuations in the 1980s and 1990s both have positive effects on electricity consumption. The low real non-oil GDP fluctuations likely have positive effects on environmental effect, and real non-oil GDP fluctuations have positive effects on electricity consumption, but high real non-oil GDP fluctuations have negative effects on environmental status.
