Showing 8 results for Oil Export
Mahmoud Motavaseli, Ilnaz Ebrahimi, Asghar Shahmoradi, Akbar Komijani,
Volume 10, Issue 4 (1-2011)
Abstract
This paper develops a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSDE) model to study Iran's economy. The model considers the dependence of Iran's economy to oil exports. Oil sector and oil export revenues have been modeled as a separate sector and one of the government budget resources, respectively. In this model, like in other New Keynesian DSGE models, firms face nominal rigidities and the intermediate-good sector is monopolistically competitive. Four shocks (productivity, oil revenues, money growth rate and government expenditure) have been introduced as the sources of volatility. The findings show that business cycle moments generated by the model and those of actual statistics from the economy are closely related. The model produces more volatile private investment and less volatile private consumption than non-oil output. Impulse response functions of shocks show that non-oil output increases in response to productivity, oil revenues, money growth rate and government expenditure shocks. Although non-oil output increases in response to government expenditures shocks, crowding- out effect of these expenditures causes output to decrease after some periods.
Bahram Sahabi, Hussein Sadeqi, Ali Akbar Shurehkandi,
Volume 11, Issue 1 (5-2011)
Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate on non-oil export covering the period from 1978 to 2006. The method used in this study is Panel data, and these countries are selected as the hosts: Turkey, The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Pakistan. In this research, Gross Domestic Product of the host country, Bilateral Exchange Rate, Price Raito and Dummy Variable are used as regressor for non-oil exports. The result of this study shows that, gross domestic product and exchange rate have positive effect, but price ratio and dummy variable have negative effect on non-oil exports of Iran to these countries. Also Cross Section Specific coefficient shows that exchange rate has positive effect on export to Turkey, The UAE and Pakistan, while negative effect on other countries.
Kazem Yavari, Mahdieh Rezagholizadeh, Majid Aghaei,
Volume 11, Issue 2 (8-2011)
Abstract
This article analyses the effects of foreign exchange commitment and exchange rate unification policies on Iran’s non-oil exports during the last three decades. In addition, the effects of these policies on non-oil exports have empirically been estimated. For this purpose, an export supply model was estimated using the econometrics technique of Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and reliable Iranian data for the last three decades.
The empirical results of this paper shows that during the entire period of 1977-2008, foreign exchange commitment policy has caused non-oil exports to decline, but exchange rate unification policy has had positive effects on Iran’s non-oil exports.
Hossein Asgharpour, Sakineh Sojoodi, Nasim Mahin Aslani Nia,
Volume 11, Issue 3 (10-2011)
Abstract
According to exchange rate pass-through models, exchange rate has a great impact on the competitiveness of exports and determining the effects of exchange rate on export prices can be useful in planning for export promotion. For this purpose, in this paper it has been attempted in the theoretical framework of exchange rate pass- through models and applying ARDL approach the effects of exchange rate on non- oil exports price of Iran during 1971 to 2007 has been tested empirically. The findings show that there is a significant positive relationship between exchange rate and export price index so that by increasing exchange rate (devaluation of national currency) export price index increases significantly. Exchange rate pass- through to export prices is complete and to import prices in terms of destination currency is zero. In other words, the empirical results of this study indicate that in the Iranian economy, exporters are faced with devaluation of national currency (increase in exchange rate), which increases export prices in terms of domestic currency. Thus, the exchange rate changes have not significant effects on export prices in terms of destination currency and just affect the profits of exporters.
Karem Azarbayjani, Ali Sarkhosh Sara, Aso Esmailpour,
Volume 15, Issue 1 (4-2015)
Abstract
One of the main goals of developing countries is to achieve a sustainable economic growth. The exports promotion can directly help economic growth. Therefore, recognizing the factors influencing economic growth is of utmost important. Regarding the significance of factors affecting non-oil exports in trade policy making, this study aims to investigate the impact of exports insurance subsidy and other relevant variables on non-oil exports in Iran. To do this, the short- and long-term relationships between non-oil exports and exports insurance subsidy are estimated by Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) over the period 1995-2011. The results show that exports insurance subsidy is of positive effect on non-oil exports in both short- and long-term.
Mr. Mohammad Dehghan Manshadi, Dr Karim Eslamloueyan, Dr Ebrahim Hadian, Dr Zahra Dehghan Shabani,
Volume 20, Issue 3 (9-2020)
Abstract
The interaction between institutional quality and the mechanism of oil shock diffusion might have a significant effect on macroeconomic dynamics in an oil-exporting country. The literature lacks a formal model to address the role of institutional quality in the economic performance of an oil-rich developing economy. Using a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework, this study develops a model to investigate the response of macroeconomic variables to changes in institutional quality resulted from oil shocks in Iran as an important oil-exporting country. Our modeling allows us to show how institutional quality and oil revenues affect households, firms, government, and the central bank. The model is solved and calibrated for the period 1959-2017. The results indicate that the destruction of institutional quality caused by a positive oil shock prevents the Iranian economy from reaping the fruits of an increase in oil revenues. Oil revenues and their shocks by destroying the institutional quality through the expansion of rent-seeking activities, increasing transaction costs of production, reducing the impact of government spending, and diverting monetary and fiscal policies from the targets result in negative effects on Iran's non-oil production in the long run. To reduce the destructive effects of oil shocks on institutional quality in the Iranian economy, we suggest the policymakers in Iran reduce the dependency of the government budget on oil revenues.
Volume 21, Issue 3 (7-2014)
Abstract
This paper investigates the short- run and long-run effects of government size and exports on the economic growth of Iran as a developing oil export based economy for the period of 1974 - 2008 using an autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) framework. A modified form of Feder (1982) and subsequently Ram’s (1986) model has been applied to include both government size and exports in growth equation. The findings show that in long run and short run the Armey curve (1995) is valid, indicating that both a very big size and a too small size of government are harmful for growth and government should adjust its size. The results also show that total exports, the amount of oil exports in terms of barrels and oil prices affect economic growth positively and significantly both in short-run and long-run. However, non-oil exports do not have a significant effect on growth in the long run
Dr Mohammad Nikzad, Dr Mahdi Yazdani,
Volume 24, Issue 3 (9-2024)
Abstract
Introduction
Balance of payment (BOP) shocks are one of the most important factors causing instability in economies that rely heavily on raw material export. Due to its dependence on oil revenues, the Iranian economy has been affected by balance of payment impulses in different eras, which have led to the instability of the macro-economy, especially the fluctuation of exchange rate, and sometimes occurrence of currency crisis. In the literature of public finance, there are several types of taxes on financial transactions, each of which has been introduced according to a specific purpose. Nevertheless, these taxes have common characteristics that are considered as basis for their selection and implementation at some point of time, especially during the periods of financial crises. These include curbing fluctuations of financial markets, collecting fair taxes and the possibility of reducing tax evasion compared to other taxes as the most important features. Tobin's original idea was a double tax on currency transactions, which is due when the currency is bought and sold. The mentioned tax has a bias towards long-term investment and leads to moving away from short-term speculation and ultimately creating economic stability. In general, this tax can lead to its spending by increasing investment returns and increasing economic stability.
Methodology
One of the presented instruments in the literature of open macroeconomics in order to control excessive exchange rate fluctuations, especially when the economy is faced with exogenous negative impulses such as international sanctions, is to control capital outflow through the Tobin tax in the exchange rate market. In this study, by presenting a DSGE model for an open economy and compatible with the conditions of the Iranian economy, it was tried to evaluate the role of Tobin Tax in stabilizing macroeconomic variables. The focus was especially on evaluating the exchange rate in response to the shocks of the balance of payment in the framework of the managed floating exchange rate system. The presented model in this paper is simulated using the Dynare program that runs in MATLAB software. Daynar is able to find steady-state values for variables of the model and calculates impulse response paths of variables in case of economic shocks. At this stage, the pattern is written in the form of a Dynare file, which should have 5 sections that include the introduction of all variables (including endogenous and exogenous variables and parameters), the equations in the model, the initial values of the variables, and the available impulses. If all the steps above are done correctly, the Dynare program simulates the model and produces the impulse response functions for the variables of model against the included impulses and a summary of the moments of the simulated variables. Hence, in this study, it will be tried to evaluate the role of Tobin Tax in controlling the balance of payments innovations in the framework of the management floating exchange rate system.
Results and Discussion
The results of the analyzed variables show that with the negative shock of oil export, the output also decreases. Due to the decrease in the foreign exchange reserves, the real exchange rate has increased initially. With a decrease in the output and an increase in the real exchange rate, inflation increases at first. With a decrease in the amount of the output, also the consumption will decrease. Finally, with a decrease in the amount of the oil exports, the balance of payment has also been disturbed. The results of the impulse response functions of the oil export as a balance of payment shock showed that the application of Tobin Tax has reduced the variance of the exchange rate resulting from balance of payment shocks, which is in accordance with the economic literature. The obtained results have also shown that, Tobin tax has reduced the deviations of inflation and the output that the welfare loss function have decreased.
Conclusion
Therefore, according to the resuls, the policymaker can use the Tobin tax as a more transparent and efficient policy tool than quotas in the exchange rate market, which lead to provide more efficiency exchange rate market in mid and long-run.
