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Showing 4 results for Natural Disasters
Kazem Yavari, Sara Emamgolipour,
Volume 10, Issue 2 (7-2010)
Volume 10, Issue 2 (7-2010)
Abstract
The natural disasters decrease the savings through reducing the government savings rate. However, the resultant disasters effect on total savings depends on the private savings changes. In this paper, the impact of natural disasters on total savings is estimated using the data over the period 1973-2006. An Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) technique is used to estimate the empirical model. The results confirm that natural disasters raise the average propensity to savings in Iran. Moreover, the coefficient of error correction term indicates that 69 percent of the disequilibrium is corrected immediately, i.e. in the next year.
Volume 11, Issue 4 (12-2023)
Abstract
In this study, the response of individual trees and the stand structure to windstorm damage were investigated in a mixed broad-leaf forest stands located in Darabkola Forest, northern Iran. A full inventory was performed for all trees with diameter at breast height≥ 10cm and all damaged trees were identified within the study area. The number of the damaged trees varied with species, ranging from 0.04% (2 individuals) in Tilia begonifolia Stev to 53.7% (2709 individuals) in Fagus orientalis L. Among the damaged trees 5054 recorded, 2231 (44.20%) had been snapped and 787 (15.6 %) uprooted, and 2028 (40.20 %) were snags. Among the species, Fagus orientalis L. (47.7%), Alnus subcordata C. A. Mey. (19.7%) and Carpinus betulus L. (18.8%) were most susceptible to uprooting, whereas Populus caspica Bornm, Quercus castaneifolia C. A. Mey. and Ulmus glabra Huds. were the least susceptible to uprooting. Trees ≥60cm dbh were more likely to be snapped (78%) or snags (69%), whereas trees <60 cm dbh were more presumably to be uprooted (50%). Also, about one third (33%) of total trees larger than 60 cm (dbh) have showed distinct effects and individual trees >20 m were more commonly uprooted. Finding showed that Oriental beech and Common hornbeam to be species that were most susceptible to both being snapped and snagged, whereas Caucasian alder had the most uprooting damage among the other species. Overall, features like species, D.B.H, height and height to diameter ratio (H/D.B.H), were intensively related with the type and severity of windstorm damage.
Volume 15, Issue 3 (12-2011)
Abstract
مبانی[u1] و سازوکارهای پیشگیری دولتی از حوادث طبیعی حسن بادینی1* ، خلیل احمدی2
Lia bility of government for prevention of natural disasters is one of the complicated matters of law. Beside of the recognition of this liability for government, there is a serious doubt about attribution of this liability to the government. This doubtful problem is related with other sciences and arts. This paper aimed to discuss the economic and legal foundations of this kind of liability. This survey is to prove the relationship between the liability of government and sustainable development, because that liability will result to reduction of losses deriving from natural disasters by obliging the government to provide preventive measures and standards.
Dr Parvin Alimoradi Afshar, Mr Vahid Azizi, Mrs Somayeh Fatehi,
Volume 24, Issue 3 (9-2024)
Volume 24, Issue 3 (9-2024)
Abstract
Introduction
In recent years, economic development and public welfare are not possible without reliable and sustainable energy sources. Therefore, providing energy security is one of the basic priorities of every society and government. On the other hand, energy security is closely related to human life and productive activities and is strongly related to the increase in the number of extreme natural events in the past decades. Natural disasters can have different effects on energy consumption depending on the type of disaster and the desired energy source. Emergency food products can be useful for disaster situations, and carbon absorption is one of the solutions that can greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The search for better energy performance of buildings and the using alternative sources of energy along with the rationalization of energy consumption can be directly related to reducing emission levels in the atmosphere and alleviating detrimental impacts on the environment. However, the transition to renewable energy sources requires careful planning and implementation to ensure energy security and prevent negative environmental effects, natural disasters also have significant implications for energy security, extreme weather events such as droughts and floods can affect the availability and reliability of energy resources, especially hydropower. Therefore, it is crucially important to consider the potential effects of climate change on energy systems and to develop adaptation strategies for ensuring energy security. Therefore, dealing with climate change and energy security are two critical challenges of any society today. Transitioning to renewable energy sources can reduce climate change, but requires careful planning and implementation to ensure energy security. In addition, it is vital to consider the potential impacts of climate change on energy systems and develop adaptation strategies to ensure energy security. Therefore, dealing with and managing severe natural disasters is necessary to ensure and manage energy security. Therefore, considering the importance of energy security on the one hand and limited research on the other to depict the impact of extreme natural events on energy security is of paramount importance. Therefore, considering the increasing frequency of natural disasters and energy security, how natural disasters affect energy security needs to be debated which has rarely been addressed yet. So, the aim of this research is to fill this theoretical gap so that the impact of severe natural hazards on energy security from a theoretical point of view to be investigated and solutions for diminishing the impact of natural disasters on energy security proposed.
Methodology
In this research, due to the fact that the degree of significance of all research variables was of the first order and with the difference of the first order of significance, to estimate the research model, it is possible to use co-accumulation methods to avoid creating false regression and misleading results. In econometric literature, various methods are introduced to check the existence of long-term relationship between variables. Therefore, this research uses Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) cointegration method to estimate the research model. The fully modified least squares method by Phillips and Hansen (1990) to examine long-run relationships and estimate a co-integrated relationship that has a combination of I(1) was introduced and developed. This method uses a quasi-parametric correction to eliminate problems caused by long-term correlation between co-accumulation equations and changes in random variables. Characteristics of this estimator; They are highly consistent and asymptotically distributed normally without skew and provide better results in small samples. It also provides modified standard deviation that allows statistical inferences to be made. In fact, the fully modified least squares method applies two corrections of distortion and endogeneity to the ordinary least squares method. On the other hand, the FMOLS method is not affected by the length of the interval and is asymptotically unbiased and has a fully efficient combination of asymptotes when all variables are endogenous. In fact, by means of this method, an optimal estimate of the cointegration vector can be estimated.
Findings
In this study, for the first time, the effect of severe natural disasters on the risk of energy security in Iran during the period (1980-2018) have been examined. To estimate the model, fully modified least squares (FMOLS) method was used. According to the variable results, severe natural disasters have a negative and significant effect on energy security in Iran, which is in agreement with the results of the research by Qiu et al. (2023), Lee et al. (2021), Rakshit (2021), Wei et al. 2022). Open degree index without trade has a negative and significant effect on energy security during the studied period, which confirms the results of Qiu et al. (2023), Wei et al. (2023) and Lee and Park (2021) studies. The industrialization index has a positive and significant effect on energy security in Iran, and the results of this section agree with the results of Qiu et al. (2023) research. The growth rate of urbanization also has a positive and significant effect on energy security during the studied period, which rejects the results of Qiu et al. (2023) study. Technological innovation has a positive and significant effect on energy security. Financial development had no significant effect on energy security. The GDP variable has a negative and significant effect on energy security. The results of this section are contrary to the research results of Qiu et al. (2023) and Lee and Park (2021) and are consistent with the research results of Wei et al. (2023).
Discussion and Conclusion
Natural disasters are an inevitable part of life that threaten different aspects of human life. Natural disasters may create some long-term social, economic and environmental trends in the society, whose effects have economic consequences for the country for decades. The position of natural disasters and its effect on other variables in a disaster-prone country like Iran should be given special attention. Natural disasters should be a gateway to a scientific, strategic and accurate look at these events and their social, political and economic consequences. Increased investment in infrastructure and mechanisms related to crisis prevention and management, and serious attention should be paid to basic indicators such as trust and political legitimacy to facilitate the functioning of the government in crisis conditions. The results of this study show that policy makers should pay enough attention to natural environment, especially natural disasters in planning agenda to improve energy security so that appropriate policy interventions can help deminish the impact of extreme natural events on energy security.
Policy recommendations
Paying attention to environmental issues to face natural disasters has become public knowledge in different societies. In terms of energy security, the following recommendations are suggested for Iran which is located in a dry and semi-arid climate and faces serious limitations:
In recent years, economic development and public welfare are not possible without reliable and sustainable energy sources. Therefore, providing energy security is one of the basic priorities of every society and government. On the other hand, energy security is closely related to human life and productive activities and is strongly related to the increase in the number of extreme natural events in the past decades. Natural disasters can have different effects on energy consumption depending on the type of disaster and the desired energy source. Emergency food products can be useful for disaster situations, and carbon absorption is one of the solutions that can greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The search for better energy performance of buildings and the using alternative sources of energy along with the rationalization of energy consumption can be directly related to reducing emission levels in the atmosphere and alleviating detrimental impacts on the environment. However, the transition to renewable energy sources requires careful planning and implementation to ensure energy security and prevent negative environmental effects, natural disasters also have significant implications for energy security, extreme weather events such as droughts and floods can affect the availability and reliability of energy resources, especially hydropower. Therefore, it is crucially important to consider the potential effects of climate change on energy systems and to develop adaptation strategies for ensuring energy security. Therefore, dealing with climate change and energy security are two critical challenges of any society today. Transitioning to renewable energy sources can reduce climate change, but requires careful planning and implementation to ensure energy security. In addition, it is vital to consider the potential impacts of climate change on energy systems and develop adaptation strategies to ensure energy security. Therefore, dealing with and managing severe natural disasters is necessary to ensure and manage energy security. Therefore, considering the importance of energy security on the one hand and limited research on the other to depict the impact of extreme natural events on energy security is of paramount importance. Therefore, considering the increasing frequency of natural disasters and energy security, how natural disasters affect energy security needs to be debated which has rarely been addressed yet. So, the aim of this research is to fill this theoretical gap so that the impact of severe natural hazards on energy security from a theoretical point of view to be investigated and solutions for diminishing the impact of natural disasters on energy security proposed.
Methodology
In this research, due to the fact that the degree of significance of all research variables was of the first order and with the difference of the first order of significance, to estimate the research model, it is possible to use co-accumulation methods to avoid creating false regression and misleading results. In econometric literature, various methods are introduced to check the existence of long-term relationship between variables. Therefore, this research uses Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) cointegration method to estimate the research model. The fully modified least squares method by Phillips and Hansen (1990) to examine long-run relationships and estimate a co-integrated relationship that has a combination of I(1) was introduced and developed. This method uses a quasi-parametric correction to eliminate problems caused by long-term correlation between co-accumulation equations and changes in random variables. Characteristics of this estimator; They are highly consistent and asymptotically distributed normally without skew and provide better results in small samples. It also provides modified standard deviation that allows statistical inferences to be made. In fact, the fully modified least squares method applies two corrections of distortion and endogeneity to the ordinary least squares method. On the other hand, the FMOLS method is not affected by the length of the interval and is asymptotically unbiased and has a fully efficient combination of asymptotes when all variables are endogenous. In fact, by means of this method, an optimal estimate of the cointegration vector can be estimated.
Findings
In this study, for the first time, the effect of severe natural disasters on the risk of energy security in Iran during the period (1980-2018) have been examined. To estimate the model, fully modified least squares (FMOLS) method was used. According to the variable results, severe natural disasters have a negative and significant effect on energy security in Iran, which is in agreement with the results of the research by Qiu et al. (2023), Lee et al. (2021), Rakshit (2021), Wei et al. 2022). Open degree index without trade has a negative and significant effect on energy security during the studied period, which confirms the results of Qiu et al. (2023), Wei et al. (2023) and Lee and Park (2021) studies. The industrialization index has a positive and significant effect on energy security in Iran, and the results of this section agree with the results of Qiu et al. (2023) research. The growth rate of urbanization also has a positive and significant effect on energy security during the studied period, which rejects the results of Qiu et al. (2023) study. Technological innovation has a positive and significant effect on energy security. Financial development had no significant effect on energy security. The GDP variable has a negative and significant effect on energy security. The results of this section are contrary to the research results of Qiu et al. (2023) and Lee and Park (2021) and are consistent with the research results of Wei et al. (2023).
Discussion and Conclusion
Natural disasters are an inevitable part of life that threaten different aspects of human life. Natural disasters may create some long-term social, economic and environmental trends in the society, whose effects have economic consequences for the country for decades. The position of natural disasters and its effect on other variables in a disaster-prone country like Iran should be given special attention. Natural disasters should be a gateway to a scientific, strategic and accurate look at these events and their social, political and economic consequences. Increased investment in infrastructure and mechanisms related to crisis prevention and management, and serious attention should be paid to basic indicators such as trust and political legitimacy to facilitate the functioning of the government in crisis conditions. The results of this study show that policy makers should pay enough attention to natural environment, especially natural disasters in planning agenda to improve energy security so that appropriate policy interventions can help deminish the impact of extreme natural events on energy security.
Policy recommendations
Paying attention to environmental issues to face natural disasters has become public knowledge in different societies. In terms of energy security, the following recommendations are suggested for Iran which is located in a dry and semi-arid climate and faces serious limitations:
- Providing sufficient credits by promoting cooperation with international organizations. Lack of credits is one of the main obstacles to the implementation of legal articles approved in the development programs and advancing the goals set in the field of environmental issues of the country.
- Adopting the approach of comprehensive and integrated management of the environment. In Iran varied organizations and institutions are involved with the environmental issues and none are fully responsible for it. Environmental Protection Organization, Forests and Ranges and Watershed Organization, Water Department of the Ministry of Energy, and the Iranian Fisheries Organization are each responsible for a part of environmental concerns with no mechanism for coordination between them.
- Promotion of culture and environmental literacy of society to strengthen the spirit of cooperation of citizens with environmental policies.
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