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Showing 3 results for Groundwater Resources
Volume 6, Issue 2 (7-2018)
Abstract
Aims: Groundwater, especially in comparison with surface water, is one of the most critical sources of water supplies in different parts of the world. Due to the increasing demand in various parts of agriculture, household, industry, etc., and also decreasing groundwater level in recent years in Hamadan province, it is necessary to estimate the carrying capacity of groundwater resources.
Materials and Methods: In this article, seven factors, having greater impacts on the carrying capacity of the region, were selected based on experts’ views during the 2001–2011 period. Furthermore, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method using different membership functions (MF) was used to estimate the carrying capacity of groundwater resources.
Findings: By considering different numbers of MF, the results of this study pointed out that groundwater carrying capacity decreased throughout the 2001–2011 period. Moreover, by considering the rate of decline of water level, it is obvious that by the use of five member functions in comparison with other methods, the reduction level of groundwater resources is better observed. Hence, the process of recognition of reduction groundwater resources carrying capacity in Hamadan Province can be immediately done.
Conclusion: As a consequence, governments can make some proper and quick decisions and effective strategies to compensate the reduction and save implementation cost and time.
Materials and Methods: In this article, seven factors, having greater impacts on the carrying capacity of the region, were selected based on experts’ views during the 2001–2011 period. Furthermore, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method using different membership functions (MF) was used to estimate the carrying capacity of groundwater resources.
Findings: By considering different numbers of MF, the results of this study pointed out that groundwater carrying capacity decreased throughout the 2001–2011 period. Moreover, by considering the rate of decline of water level, it is obvious that by the use of five member functions in comparison with other methods, the reduction level of groundwater resources is better observed. Hence, the process of recognition of reduction groundwater resources carrying capacity in Hamadan Province can be immediately done.
Conclusion: As a consequence, governments can make some proper and quick decisions and effective strategies to compensate the reduction and save implementation cost and time.
Volume 17, Issue 6 (12-2017)
Abstract
In the recent decades, water demand has been increased specially in arid and semi-arid areas, led to the over-exploitation of water resources. Groundwater resources are important sources of water supply for domestic, industrial and agricultural consumption. Nowadays, over-exploitation from groundwater resources has increased the pressure on these sources which causes the major environmental damages. In this study, a cooperative game theory model is used to investigate how the cooperation of groundwater resources consumers influences the environmental damage and the benefit of stakeholders. The used model in the present study is developed for investigation of an optimal control problem including the variables of economic, environmental, agronomic, and hydrologic issues. Ant colony optimization method is used to flexible define and solve the simulation-optimization problem of this study which provides an ability to consider an extensive range of objectives and constraints. The results show that how uncontrolled pumping and over-exploitation in each aquifer affect on the stakeholders of the adjacent aquifers. Furthermore, the impacts on aquatic ecosystems are analyzed and presented as environmental damages. The obtained results demonstrate that in different areas, environmental damages are reduced under the coalition and effective cooperation condition among stakeholders and considering the environmental externalities in comparison with status quo. In the recent decades, water demand has been increased specially in arid and semi-arid areas, led to the over-exploitation of water resources. Groundwater resources are important sources of water supply for domestic, industrial and agricultural consumption. Nowadays, over-exploitation from groundwater resources has increased the pressure on these sources which causes the major environmental damages. In this study, a cooperative game theory model is used to investigate how the cooperation of groundwater resources consumers influences the environmental damage and the benefit of stakeholders. The used model in the present study is developed for investigation of an optimal control problem including the variables of economic, environmental, agronomic, and hydrologic issues. Ant colony optimization method is used to flexible define and solve the simulation-optimization problem of this study which provides an ability to consider an extensive range of objectives and constraints. The results show that how uncontrolled pumping and over-exploitation in each aquifer affect on the stakeholders of the adjacent aquifers. Furthermore, the impacts on aquatic ecosystems are analyzed and presented as environmental damages. The obtained results demonstrate that in different areas, environmental damages are reduced under the coalition and effective cooperation condition among stakeholders and considering the environmental externalities in comparison with status quo. In the recent decades, water demand has been increased specially in arid and semi-arid areas, led to the over-exploitation of water resources. Groundwater resources are important sources of water supply for domestic, industrial and agricultural consumption. Nowadays, over-exploitation from groundwater resources has increased the pressure on these sources which causes the major environmental damages. In this study, a cooperative game theory model is used to investigate how the cooperation of groundwater resources consumers influences the environmental damage and the benefit of stakeholders. The used model in the present study is developed for investigation of an optimal control problem including the variables of economic, environmental, agronomic, and hydrologic issues. Ant colony optimization method is used to flexible define and solve the simulation-optimization problem of this study which provides an ability to consider an extensive range of objectives and constraints. The results show that how uncontrolled pumping and over-exploitation in each aquifer affect on the stakeholders of the adjacent aquifers. Furthermore, the impacts on aquatic ecosystems are analyzed and presented as environmental damages. The obtained results demonstrate that in different areas, environmental damages are reduced under the coalition and effective cooperation condition among stakeholders and considering the environmental externalities in comparison with status quo.
Mrs. Shiva Soltani, Dr Seyed Habibollah Mosavi, Dr Sadegh Khalilian, Dr Hamed Najafi Alamdarlo,
Volume 23, Issue 2 (5-2023)
Volume 23, Issue 2 (5-2023)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
The health and food security of a country depends on the production of the agricultural sector, and any disturbance in the production process of this sector can threaten the food security of households. Among the challenges affecting the agricultural sector, climate change is of double importance due to its direct impact on crop yield and water resources. The occurrence of climate change through changes in the supply and price of crops, overshadows the producer surplus in this sector. This is despite the fact that, according to previous studies, climate change in the coming decades will be a visible phenomenon in most plains of Iran, and this issue will have negative consequences on water resources and, as a result, on the production of crops and food security. Therefore, considering the importance of food supply in the process of economic development, it is necessary to investigate the impact of food security on climate change and the welfare effects of this phenomenon in Iran. According to this approach, in the present study, the potential effects of different climatic scenarios on the cultivation pattern of the Hamadan-Bahar plain, considering 2018 as the base year, were investigated, and the impact of water resources, production, income and food security in the agricultural sector of this plain was evaluated.
Methodology
In this study, the dynamic positive mathematical programming(PMP) approach in endogenous price conditions was used. The experimental model, consisting of 18 crops and two types of irrigation technologies, was developed based on the information of 2018 as the base year and in a 20-year planning horizon. This model's objective function is to maximize the present value of net farm income. Resource constraints used in the experimental model include water, land, capital, labor, and chemical fertilizers, with chemical fertilizer restrictions repeated for each nitrogen, phosphate, and potash fertilizers. Finally, the GAMS software and CONOPT3 algorithm were used for data analysis. In the meteorological dimension of the model, the climatic measurement of rainfall was studied in the form of SSP climatic scenarios. Accordingly, the rate of evapotranspiration of crops and, consequently, the production and yield of crops in the region due to climate change were estimated and integrated into the PMP model. Each of these relationships is responsible for providing some of the information needed in the experimental research model. Finally, the dynamic endogenous price optimization framework was estimated as a unit pattern. After evaluating the changes in the income of farmer households and crop pattern in the face of climate change, the food security index was calculated in the different climate scenarios. In the final stage of the research, management strategies were evaluated in the agricultural sector of the Hamadan-Bahar plain to reduce the negative effects of climate change on the food security.
Results and Discussion
The results showed that the annual cumulative rainfall values of the Hamadan-Bahar plain in the next 20-year period would have a decreasing trend in all climate scenarios, so that in the SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios, the average rainfall would be 303, 272 and 252 mm, respectively. Meanwhile, the amount of precipitation in the base year of this research (2018) is reported as 323 mm. Also, the results showed that with the considering an optimistic approach in predicting climate changes (SSP2 scenario), along with the increase of extraction from underground water sources by 13%, the increase in average price of agricultural products by 34% and the decrease in production by 5% in the 20-year planning period compared to the base year, the present value of net producer income and the food security index in the agricultural sector of the region would decrease by 17 and 11 percent, respectively. However, the adoption of management strategies such as the optimal deficit irrigation would improve the food security of the plain by 11 to 15 percent.
Conclusion
The change in the climate conditions in the coming years would have negative effects on the food security conditions in the agricultural sector of the Hamadan-Bahar plain. In this situation, considering that it is impossible to avoid different forms of climate scenarios, it is necessary to apply strategies to adapt to the mentioned phenomenon. Based on this, the optimal deficit irrigation, as a management strategy, was investigated, and the results confirm the positive effect of this strategy in improving the food security index in the region. Therefore, according to the results, management strategies with emphasis on deficit irrigation in the agricultural sector of Hamadan-Bahar plain should be put on the agenda.
Keywords: Rainfall, Production, Groundwater Resources, Dynamic Pattern, Food Insecurity
JEL Classification: C02, C22, C33, C46, C61, Q25, Q54
The health and food security of a country depends on the production of the agricultural sector, and any disturbance in the production process of this sector can threaten the food security of households. Among the challenges affecting the agricultural sector, climate change is of double importance due to its direct impact on crop yield and water resources. The occurrence of climate change through changes in the supply and price of crops, overshadows the producer surplus in this sector. This is despite the fact that, according to previous studies, climate change in the coming decades will be a visible phenomenon in most plains of Iran, and this issue will have negative consequences on water resources and, as a result, on the production of crops and food security. Therefore, considering the importance of food supply in the process of economic development, it is necessary to investigate the impact of food security on climate change and the welfare effects of this phenomenon in Iran. According to this approach, in the present study, the potential effects of different climatic scenarios on the cultivation pattern of the Hamadan-Bahar plain, considering 2018 as the base year, were investigated, and the impact of water resources, production, income and food security in the agricultural sector of this plain was evaluated.
Methodology
In this study, the dynamic positive mathematical programming(PMP) approach in endogenous price conditions was used. The experimental model, consisting of 18 crops and two types of irrigation technologies, was developed based on the information of 2018 as the base year and in a 20-year planning horizon. This model's objective function is to maximize the present value of net farm income. Resource constraints used in the experimental model include water, land, capital, labor, and chemical fertilizers, with chemical fertilizer restrictions repeated for each nitrogen, phosphate, and potash fertilizers. Finally, the GAMS software and CONOPT3 algorithm were used for data analysis. In the meteorological dimension of the model, the climatic measurement of rainfall was studied in the form of SSP climatic scenarios. Accordingly, the rate of evapotranspiration of crops and, consequently, the production and yield of crops in the region due to climate change were estimated and integrated into the PMP model. Each of these relationships is responsible for providing some of the information needed in the experimental research model. Finally, the dynamic endogenous price optimization framework was estimated as a unit pattern. After evaluating the changes in the income of farmer households and crop pattern in the face of climate change, the food security index was calculated in the different climate scenarios. In the final stage of the research, management strategies were evaluated in the agricultural sector of the Hamadan-Bahar plain to reduce the negative effects of climate change on the food security.
Results and Discussion
The results showed that the annual cumulative rainfall values of the Hamadan-Bahar plain in the next 20-year period would have a decreasing trend in all climate scenarios, so that in the SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios, the average rainfall would be 303, 272 and 252 mm, respectively. Meanwhile, the amount of precipitation in the base year of this research (2018) is reported as 323 mm. Also, the results showed that with the considering an optimistic approach in predicting climate changes (SSP2 scenario), along with the increase of extraction from underground water sources by 13%, the increase in average price of agricultural products by 34% and the decrease in production by 5% in the 20-year planning period compared to the base year, the present value of net producer income and the food security index in the agricultural sector of the region would decrease by 17 and 11 percent, respectively. However, the adoption of management strategies such as the optimal deficit irrigation would improve the food security of the plain by 11 to 15 percent.
Conclusion
The change in the climate conditions in the coming years would have negative effects on the food security conditions in the agricultural sector of the Hamadan-Bahar plain. In this situation, considering that it is impossible to avoid different forms of climate scenarios, it is necessary to apply strategies to adapt to the mentioned phenomenon. Based on this, the optimal deficit irrigation, as a management strategy, was investigated, and the results confirm the positive effect of this strategy in improving the food security index in the region. Therefore, according to the results, management strategies with emphasis on deficit irrigation in the agricultural sector of Hamadan-Bahar plain should be put on the agenda.
Keywords: Rainfall, Production, Groundwater Resources, Dynamic Pattern, Food Insecurity
JEL Classification: C02, C22, C33, C46, C61, Q25, Q54
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