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The macroeconomic situation, government and central bank intervention in economy accompanied by business cycle consequences resulted from world economy, can stimulate profitability of borrowers and cause high default rates of payments for banking systems. In such an atmosphere, having an estimated model helps us to better understand the relations among macroeconomic variables, the behavior of bad loans and credit risk. In this paper, we study the influence of macroeconomic shocks on the bad loans from 2000 to 2007. At first, we apply an ARDL model, since the exogenous variables of this model have endogenous characteristics as well; we attempt to utilize a VAR model to explain the dynamic behavior of these variables. Impulse-response function is also used as a stress testing factor to investigate the impulse effects of bad loans to economic shocks. Based on estimated models, we study the effects of economic shocks such as loans interest rate, government expenditures, oil price and liquidity on non-performing loans.

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With globalization getting momentum, capital inflow has been an instrument for economies to grow fast in recent decades. Hence, identifying the factors that affect capital inflow and outflow - net international capital mobility- would be desirable to achieve economic stability. As usual, one of the factors that influence on capital inflow is high return of capital. New experiments explore the crucial role of risk and liquidity intensive on net international capital mobility. So, the purpose of this study is to analyze the analytical impact of credit risk scoring on the net international capital mobility in Iran within the period of 1980-2009. To achieve credit risk scoring, the Fink's scoring model has been used to identify the determinants of credit risk. Then, the rank of each factor has been appeared separately and finally the country's credit risk scoring has been estimated. Then, the final model using time series data and ordinary least squares method are analyzed. The impact of liquidity, different return of inside and outside and credit risk on net international capital mobility in Iran are discussed at the end of the paper. The results show that all mentioned variables have an anticipated effect on net capital inflow.