Showing 3 results for Computable General Equilibrium (cge) Model
Majid Eslami Andargoly, Hossein Sadeghi, Ali Ghanbari, Mohammad Mohammadi Khabazan,
Volume 12, Issue 2 (7-2012)
Abstract
Withdrawing energy subsidies has inevitably welfare effects on the Iranian economy. The estimation of this effect can help policy-makers and planners to take the right decisions. In this paper, welfare effects of cash transfer are calculated for electrical energy subsidies using a social accounting matrix and the computable general equilibrium model. In order to evaluate the welfare effect of this policy, GDP index has also been implemented. Three scenarios of prices, cash payment of subsidies and model simulation are considered in this regard. The research findings reveal that as a result of these policies, GDP will dramatically decrease and the economy will fall into a recession. If the cash payments are financed through the following three methods; a) surplus government revenues, b) sales tax on electricity commodity, c) income tax, combined with price increasing policy, will cause a deeper recession and a lower rate of GDP as a result. This trend has a negative and reverse relation with the amount of cash payment subsidies and electrical energy price. Also, the rate of change will heavily depend on the sort of financial resources for such subsidies, as with an increase in cash subsidies and electricity prices, the result would be decreased level of GDP over time.
Hossein Sadeghi, Majid Eslami Andargoly, Ali Ghanbari,
Volume 13, Issue 4 (1-2014)
Abstract
In this study, we survey the effects of cash payments of electrical energy subsidies on prices index based on a computable general equilibrium model for Iran using a social accounting matrix (SAM) in 2006. We applied three scenarios on cash payments and their financing through (a) surplus revenues of government, (b) sales tax on electricity and (c) income tax on household revenue, and combined these scenarios with the scenario of increase in prices. The results show that in cases (a) and (c); the general prices level and price indices have direct relationship with cash subsidies and electricity prices. However, in case (b), financing through sales tax, due to changes in the composition of aggregate demand, results in decreasing general price level.
Dr Mehdi Nejati, Mr. Yaser Balaghi Enalou,
Volume 22, Issue 2 (6-2022)
Abstract
Iran's membership in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), in addition to political and security gains, can bring broad economic benefits. In this regard, in this research, the economic impacts of decreasing import tariffs of Iran and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization have been analyzed. In this study, empirical analysis and quantifying the results have been done regarding Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, as a computable general equilibrium CGE, and global and multi-regional model. Considering the international nature of analysis, a global model and database were required to achieve the purposes of this study, thus, version 10 of GTAP model and its database (published in 2020) was selected for analysis. In this research, the economic impacts (welfare, production, trade) of Iran's presence in the SCO in various economic sectors were analyzed in two scenarios (50% decrease and 100% decrease in bilateral tariffs). The results indicate that sector "Grains and Crops" in terms of high initial tariff rate, sector "Textiles and Clothing" in terms of high initial tariff rate, sector " Light Manufacturing" in terms of high initial tariff rate and sector " Heavy Manufacturing" due to high trade volume is the significant and influential sectors of Iran's membership in Shanghai Cooperation Organization. It is recommended that tariff rate changes of the mentioned sectors be performed with high accuracy. In general, the results indicate that the variables of welfare, production and trade are increasing in Iran.