Showing 3 results for Ardl Model
Hossein Abbasinejad, Yazdan Gudarzi Farahani, Mohammah Hossein Ghiassi,
Volume 14, Issue 1 (3-2014)
Abstract
This paper aims to study the relationship between intellectual property and patent protection and economic growth in Iran using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique during 1979 – 2010. This model is based on economic growth models in 1990s. The number of patents is used to measure the impact of patents on economic growth. Moreover, we investigate the casual relationships among economic growth, degree of economic openness, foreign direct investment, information and communication technology (ICT) and human development. The results indicate that patent protection has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Furthermore, the casual relationships from degree of economic openness, foreign direct investment, ICT and human development to economic growth are positively significant. Based on numerical results, one-unit increases in ICT, HDI, patents, government expenditure and oil revenues lead to 0.10, 0.12, 0.10, 0.39 and 0.21 percent increase in economic growth respectively. Hence, we conclude that the higher intellectual property and patent protection results in high economic growth.
Dr Esmaeil Pishbahar, Mrs. Sheida Bodagh, Dr Ghader Dashti,
Volume 19, Issue 3 (8-2019)
Abstract
Today, forecasting of economic and commercial variables as an important scientific field is developing, and forecasting of macroeconomic variables is of special importance for planners, policy makers and economic enterprises. The agricultural sector, as a producer of strategic products and provider of food for the growing population, has a great influence on economic, social and political decisions. Considering the importance of the agricultural sector in Iran as well as the existence of different and uncontrollable influential factors, the researchers who focus on agricultural sector’ growth, try to use methods of forecasting in order to get results close to reality, reduce the prediction errors, and design policies and plans to improve the place of this sector. In this paper, the mixed frequency data-sampling model (MIDAS) has been used to predict the growth of agricultural sector’ value added. Comparison of the model predictions with actual data indicates the predictive power of the model. This model has predicted the growth rate of agricultural sector's value added over the period 2017-2021 by 3.215%, 2.53%, 2.92%, 5.29%, and 5.99%, respectively.
Dr Mehdi Shabanzadeh Khoshrody, Dr Omid Gilanpour, Dr Ebrahim Javdan, Dr Mohsen Rafaati,
Volume 22, Issue 3 (9-2022)
Abstract
The currency fluctuations intensified in Iran from the end of 2017. In order to manage the foreign exchange market, from the beginning of 2018, the government economic staff allocated preferential currency at the rate of 42000 Rials per US dollar to basic goods’ imports. The main purpose of this policy was to prevent the spread of currency inflammation to the market of basic goods needed by the people and to benefit the lower income deciles of society. However, today, three years after the implementation of this plan, many experts believe that the implementation of the preferred currency subsidy policy has resulted in high costs and due to failure to control rising prices, has not been able to ensure the stability of target food consumption among households. On the contrary, proponents of this policy believe that the effect of the preferred currency subsidies policy on controlling the growth of product prices in the final market and ultimately household consumption has been significant. Therefore, the question arises here is that whether the subsidy paid in the form of preferred currency policy reaches the final consumer and has a significant effect on his level of consumption? With this approach, the present study evaluates the effect of preferred currency subsidies policy on food consumption in urban areas of Iran. In order to achieve this goal, first, the theoretical model of the present study is explained by applying theoretical foundations in various studies. It is worth mentioning that the information required for the study is collected during the period 2005-2020 and analyzed in the form of PANEL ARDL model. The results show that although the preferred currency subsidies policy has a positive and significant effect on household consumption, but this effect is not remarkable. At the same time, according to the results, the price index of food groups and exchange rate fluctuations have negative effects on food consumption in the short and long term and in contrast, increasing the income of urban households has a positive and significant effect on food consumption in the short and long term. Finally, the results of the error correction model (ECM) show that due to the low speed of adjustment, the effects of currency shocks have high durability in the Iranian economy.
