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Showing 10 results for Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model
Dr Farideh Khodadadi, Dr Hossein Samsami,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (12-2024)
Volume 0, Issue 0 (12-2024)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
The financial sector has seen considerable growth in many post World War II western economies. The consequences of the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 displayed how large the reach of the industry is, and how actions taken by a few important role players, can harm the general public. It is due to the consequences of the Great Financial Crisis that the notion of reforming the banking sector came about. The call for reform occurred in the 1940s as well, after the Great Crash. It was here that Full Reserve Banking (FRB), the broad term for the proposed banking reform and the subject of this dissertation, originated.
The Great Crash ended a period of expansion and growth in the USA in the 1920s where credit was easily available, and the money supply grew. The subsequent Great Depression was an economic event of unprecedented dimensions (Temin, 2000). The years 1929-1933 held a stock market crash, a banking crisis, and a collapse of commodity prices. Friedman and Schwartz (1963) contended that the primary propagation mechanism of the Depression was the contraction in the US money supply, together with banking panics. There were three banking crises in that short period, and it was the failure of two large banks, the Bank of United States and Caldwell and Company, that caused most of the problem. These banks had undergone rapid credit expansion in the 1920s and collapsed under the pressure of the recession (Temin, 2000: 307). A response to the recession was to say that the root cause was bad banking practice and that stricter regulations should be imposed to prevent future crises. Regulation was introduced in The Glass-Steagall Act (1933) however, a more severe suggestion was that bank deposits should be fully backed by bank reserves, Full Reserve Banking, an approach proposed in the Chicago Plan.
The Chicago Plan was proposed by Henry Simons, Irving Fisher and others, to prevent another crisis. It proposed requiring banks to hold 100 per cent reserves. This would simultaneously curb the possibility of reckless lending, and eliminate the risk of bank runs, thereby eliminating the possibility of another banking crisis.
Over the past years, the nominal capacity of the supply of bank facilities has increased significantly, and the main increase in bank assets has come from the increase in granting facilities. On the liabilities side of the banks' balance sheets, non-governmental sector deposits (due to paying high interest rates to depositors) during the year 2013 to 2022 has increased by 33.6% on average.
Statistical evidence shows that the real sector of the economy has not benefited much from the expansion of the banking network's balance sheet and the allocation of bank resources has not led to economic growth. On the other hand, it can be seen that the liquidity created by the banking system has not been absorbed by the real sector of the economy and its effects have been manifested in nominal variables in the form of price increases or turbulences in the currency market and other assets. The average growth of real GDP (without oil) during the years 2013 to 2022 was about 1.6 percent.
In general, it can be seen that due to the endogenous nature of money, the central bank has not had a significant success in controlling the growth of monetary aggregates through controlling the growth of the monetary base and its components (statistical evidence in recent decades confirms this); So that the credibility of the central bank's monetary policies has been challenged and the economy has been exposed to continuous threats of inflation and monetary and financial instabilities.
Methodology
This study will employ several techniques for gathering data, including a library type, a documentary branch, and the use of databases, such as those of the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the World Bank. Based on the characteristics of the Iranian economy under fractional & full reserve banking, a random dynamic general equilibrium model was developed for the period 1991-2021. Typical econometric methods are also used to evaluate the hypotheses. This has enabled assessing the effects of the exchange rate shock under two scenarios. It should be noted that the models were estimated in the dynare program space under MATLAB software.
Findings
The exchange rate shock has a negative effect on the consumption of the private sector at real prices, probably due to an increase in import prices. This has led to a decrease in the import of goods. Since imports form a part of the consumption for the private sector, therefore, the consumption by this sector decreases by about 0.5 percent. The Exchange rate shock has had a positive effect on the net foreign exchange reserves of the central bank. The growth rate of the monetary base is also affected by the currency shocks. With the increase in the exchange rate, although the central bank first reacts to the inflationary conditions resulting from the currency shocks through the currency reaction function and reduces the base monetary growth rate, but this situation is not very durable and finally the monetary base growth rate will increase by about 0.4 percent.
If these resources enter the banking system, due to the 100 percent reserve, it has led to the crediting of the banks, and as a result, inflation and final costs have decreased. But in fractional reserve banking, banks create money by attracting deposits, which in turn creates money by them. As a result of this jump, inflation and the final cost will increase.
The exchange rate shock also increases inflation because with the increase in the nominal growth rate of the exchange rate, the marginal cost of each import unit increases and finally the country's inflation increases by 0.7 percent.
Discussion and Conclusion
The purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of exchange rate impulse on the macroeconomic variables of Iran's economy in the conditions of partial and full reserve banking. To achieve this goal, a new Keynesian stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model was designed considering fractional and full reserve banking system (FRB). The realities of the Iranian economy are considered, and then the effects of exchange rate shocks under two types of banking are investigated. After determining the input values of the model and estimating the parameters using the seasonal data of Iran's economy during the period of 1991-2022 using the Bayesian estimation method, the results obtained from the simulation of the model variables indicate the validity of the model in describing the fluctuations of the Iranian economy. The results of the model indicate that, as a result of the exchange rate shock, the growth rate of the monetary base and consequently the amount of money is affected. Under full reserve banking, due to the full reserve of deposits, this has led to a lower increase in inflation and final cost. However, in partial reserve banking, due to the less control of the banking system, despite having two tools to control the growth of the monetary base and the nominal exchange rate, it will create higher fluctuations in the inflation rate and other macroeconomic variables. In other words, the study model has been slightly different from the basic model in the face of the currency impulse, both in terms of the amplitude and the length of the fluctuation
The financial sector has seen considerable growth in many post World War II western economies. The consequences of the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 displayed how large the reach of the industry is, and how actions taken by a few important role players, can harm the general public. It is due to the consequences of the Great Financial Crisis that the notion of reforming the banking sector came about. The call for reform occurred in the 1940s as well, after the Great Crash. It was here that Full Reserve Banking (FRB), the broad term for the proposed banking reform and the subject of this dissertation, originated.
The Great Crash ended a period of expansion and growth in the USA in the 1920s where credit was easily available, and the money supply grew. The subsequent Great Depression was an economic event of unprecedented dimensions (Temin, 2000). The years 1929-1933 held a stock market crash, a banking crisis, and a collapse of commodity prices. Friedman and Schwartz (1963) contended that the primary propagation mechanism of the Depression was the contraction in the US money supply, together with banking panics. There were three banking crises in that short period, and it was the failure of two large banks, the Bank of United States and Caldwell and Company, that caused most of the problem. These banks had undergone rapid credit expansion in the 1920s and collapsed under the pressure of the recession (Temin, 2000: 307). A response to the recession was to say that the root cause was bad banking practice and that stricter regulations should be imposed to prevent future crises. Regulation was introduced in The Glass-Steagall Act (1933) however, a more severe suggestion was that bank deposits should be fully backed by bank reserves, Full Reserve Banking, an approach proposed in the Chicago Plan.
The Chicago Plan was proposed by Henry Simons, Irving Fisher and others, to prevent another crisis. It proposed requiring banks to hold 100 per cent reserves. This would simultaneously curb the possibility of reckless lending, and eliminate the risk of bank runs, thereby eliminating the possibility of another banking crisis.
Over the past years, the nominal capacity of the supply of bank facilities has increased significantly, and the main increase in bank assets has come from the increase in granting facilities. On the liabilities side of the banks' balance sheets, non-governmental sector deposits (due to paying high interest rates to depositors) during the year 2013 to 2022 has increased by 33.6% on average.
Statistical evidence shows that the real sector of the economy has not benefited much from the expansion of the banking network's balance sheet and the allocation of bank resources has not led to economic growth. On the other hand, it can be seen that the liquidity created by the banking system has not been absorbed by the real sector of the economy and its effects have been manifested in nominal variables in the form of price increases or turbulences in the currency market and other assets. The average growth of real GDP (without oil) during the years 2013 to 2022 was about 1.6 percent.
In general, it can be seen that due to the endogenous nature of money, the central bank has not had a significant success in controlling the growth of monetary aggregates through controlling the growth of the monetary base and its components (statistical evidence in recent decades confirms this); So that the credibility of the central bank's monetary policies has been challenged and the economy has been exposed to continuous threats of inflation and monetary and financial instabilities.
Methodology
This study will employ several techniques for gathering data, including a library type, a documentary branch, and the use of databases, such as those of the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the World Bank. Based on the characteristics of the Iranian economy under fractional & full reserve banking, a random dynamic general equilibrium model was developed for the period 1991-2021. Typical econometric methods are also used to evaluate the hypotheses. This has enabled assessing the effects of the exchange rate shock under two scenarios. It should be noted that the models were estimated in the dynare program space under MATLAB software.
Findings
The exchange rate shock has a negative effect on the consumption of the private sector at real prices, probably due to an increase in import prices. This has led to a decrease in the import of goods. Since imports form a part of the consumption for the private sector, therefore, the consumption by this sector decreases by about 0.5 percent. The Exchange rate shock has had a positive effect on the net foreign exchange reserves of the central bank. The growth rate of the monetary base is also affected by the currency shocks. With the increase in the exchange rate, although the central bank first reacts to the inflationary conditions resulting from the currency shocks through the currency reaction function and reduces the base monetary growth rate, but this situation is not very durable and finally the monetary base growth rate will increase by about 0.4 percent.
If these resources enter the banking system, due to the 100 percent reserve, it has led to the crediting of the banks, and as a result, inflation and final costs have decreased. But in fractional reserve banking, banks create money by attracting deposits, which in turn creates money by them. As a result of this jump, inflation and the final cost will increase.
The exchange rate shock also increases inflation because with the increase in the nominal growth rate of the exchange rate, the marginal cost of each import unit increases and finally the country's inflation increases by 0.7 percent.
Discussion and Conclusion
The purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of exchange rate impulse on the macroeconomic variables of Iran's economy in the conditions of partial and full reserve banking. To achieve this goal, a new Keynesian stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model was designed considering fractional and full reserve banking system (FRB). The realities of the Iranian economy are considered, and then the effects of exchange rate shocks under two types of banking are investigated. After determining the input values of the model and estimating the parameters using the seasonal data of Iran's economy during the period of 1991-2022 using the Bayesian estimation method, the results obtained from the simulation of the model variables indicate the validity of the model in describing the fluctuations of the Iranian economy. The results of the model indicate that, as a result of the exchange rate shock, the growth rate of the monetary base and consequently the amount of money is affected. Under full reserve banking, due to the full reserve of deposits, this has led to a lower increase in inflation and final cost. However, in partial reserve banking, due to the less control of the banking system, despite having two tools to control the growth of the monetary base and the nominal exchange rate, it will create higher fluctuations in the inflation rate and other macroeconomic variables. In other words, the study model has been slightly different from the basic model in the face of the currency impulse, both in terms of the amplitude and the length of the fluctuation
Mahmoud Motavaseli, Ilnaz Ebrahimi, Asghar Shahmoradi, Akbar Komijani,
Volume 10, Issue 4 (1-2011)
Volume 10, Issue 4 (1-2011)
Abstract
This paper develops a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSDE) model to study Iran's economy. The model considers the dependence of Iran's economy to oil exports. Oil sector and oil export revenues have been modeled as a separate sector and one of the government budget resources, respectively. In this model, like in other New Keynesian DSGE models, firms face nominal rigidities and the intermediate-good sector is monopolistically competitive. Four shocks (productivity, oil revenues, money growth rate and government expenditure) have been introduced as the sources of volatility. The findings show that business cycle moments generated by the model and those of actual statistics from the economy are closely related. The model produces more volatile private investment and less volatile private consumption than non-oil output. Impulse response functions of shocks show that non-oil output increases in response to productivity, oil revenues, money growth rate and government expenditure shocks. Although non-oil output increases in response to government expenditures shocks, crowding- out effect of these expenditures causes output to decrease after some periods.
Seyed Fakhredin Fakhrehosseini, Asghar Shahmoradi, Mohammad Ali Ehsani,
Volume 12, Issue 1 (5-2012)
Volume 12, Issue 1 (5-2012)
Abstract
Fluctuations in fiscal policy affect monetary policy and the central bank, because the government’s general budget is highly dependent on oil prices and its fluctuations. Therefore, this paper designs a New Keynesian model for Iran with nominal rigidities (prices and wages) and analyzes the impact of technology, oil price, government spending and money supply shocks on macroeconomic variables (inflation, output) in economy of Iran. The data in this article are related to the fixed prices in the year 2004 and run annually from 1966 to 2008 on a per capita basis. Having logarithms taken, the variables are de-traded through Hodrick - Prescott filter. The final model equations are linearized around the steady state and using Uhlig (1999) approach, accidental equations are also linearized and are specified as space state pattern in Matlab software. Finally, the calibration of parameters are assessed, variables are simulated and compared with real data. The results show that the recommended model can simulate the impact of shocks on macroeconomic variables. It also shows that inflation rises in response to all shocks except that of technology. As the figures show, it is also revealed that non-oil output increases in response to technology, oil price, government spending and money supply.
Bahram Sahabi, Hossein Asgharpur, Saeed Qorbani,
Volume 17, Issue 2 (6-2017)
Volume 17, Issue 2 (6-2017)
Abstract
The issue of asymmetric effects of monetary shocks on the economy is among the new topics that have been studied by the New Keynesians. How to monetary shocks affect macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), prices, private investment in terms of nominal and real sectors, and economic policy-making is of great importance. In this study, according to the New-Keynesian assumptions, the effects of asymmetry in monetary shocks are examined using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in Iran's economy during 1979-2012. The results indicate that positive and negative monetary shocks are endogenous and depend on inflationary regimes in the Iranian economy, so that the effects of positive and negative shocks on GDP and private investment in the low inflation regime are more than those of high inflation regime. In addition, the effects of positive and negative shocks on the general prices' level in the high inflation regime are higher than those of low inflation regime.
Zahra Afshari, Hossein Tavakolian, Marziyeh Bayat,
Volume 18, Issue 2 (7-2018)
Volume 18, Issue 2 (7-2018)
Abstract
This article attempts to examine the impact of stock market fluctuations on macroeconomic variables by designing a New Keynesian approach in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. For this purpose, first, model parameters are estimated based on Bayesian approach and using of quarterly data from 1994 to 2014. Second, the impulse response functions of variables to innovations in stock price index, monetary shock, technology shock, consumer spending and public investment are investigated. Then, the optimal weights related to inflation gap, output gap and the stock price index gap within the monetary policy function are extracted. According to the results, a shock to stock price index has a negligible effect on inflation and output variables. This may be due to the small size of the stock market in Iran. Finally, the optimal coefficients are determined for inflation and output gaps, stock price index gap, and the central bank deadweight loss under various scenarios. Based on findings, first, the central bank should attribute more weight to inflation in itself reaction functions. Second, a scenario in which the weight of stock price index is zero has less deadweight loss, thus the response of the central bank to stock price index gap leads to a reduction in social welfare. Therefore, when the stock market is booming, the central bank is recommended not to be intervened to reduce liquidity.
Matin Sadat Borghei, Dr Teimoor Mohammadi,
Volume 18, Issue 2 (7-2018)
Volume 18, Issue 2 (7-2018)
Abstract
The main goal of this paper is to analyze the exchange rate pass-through, the relationship between exchange rate and prices, provided that a shock occurs and changes exchange rate and prices. The key point in this study is that exchange rate is considered as an endogenous variable. This issue is important because exchange rate pass-through due to specific shocks differs from case to case. Hence a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is presented and simulated for Iran. The accuracy of the model is analyzed by comparing the moments of the model and the moments of the quarterly data from 1988 to 2010. Then, exchange rate pass-through conditional on each shock (technology, oil revenue, foreign output, and demand for money, foreign interest rate and monetary policy shocks) is calculated by the ratio of covariance of the impulse response of price and exchange rate to variance of the impulse response of exchange rate. Finally, aggregate exchange rate pass-through is computed as the sum of conditional pass-through coefficients in each time weighted by the contribution of each shock. The biggest exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices belongs to oil revenue and foreign output shocks which amounts to about 1, and the smallest one is related to technology shock.
Dr Elham Gholami,
Volume 19, Issue 1 (4-2019)
Volume 19, Issue 1 (4-2019)
Abstract
The application of fiscal stimulus programs (FSPs) to achieve economic growth requires knowing the source of its funding, because different methods and various taxation bases for financing of the FSPs affect their effectiveness and influence the economy. The objective of this paper is to choose the best tax base to finance FSPs in Iran, according to the lowest distortionary effects on efficiency of increasing government spending. For this purpose, first a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is designed for Iran. The model consists of three economic factors including the household, domestic firms, and the government as fiscal and monetary authority, and its reliability is checked through the calibration procedure. Then, the multiplier of government spending is estimated within four scenarios for financing government spending. These include the application of tax on income, tax on consumption, a combination of tax on income and tax on consumption (value added tax) and the budget deficit policy. The results show that taxation compared to a budget deficit policy results in decreasing efficiency of the government's fiscal stimulus. However, the reaction of domestic production to the increase in government spending indicate that while a tax on consumption may cover government spending, it has a low negative effect on the efficiency of this fiscal stimulus.
Ali Hussain Samadi, Dr Mansour Zibaei, Dr Jafar Ghaderi, Mrs. Parisa Bahlouli,
Volume 19, Issue 1 (4-2019)
Volume 19, Issue 1 (4-2019)
Abstract
Intervening government and performing environmental policies are among solutions for reducing production externalities and achieving sustainable development. Indeed, institutional quality is an effective factor in selecting optimal environment policies. This paper tries to identify optimal environmental policy among common public tools for intervening (pollution taxes and permits) in the presence of environmental and economic uncertainties with various institutional quality degrees. In this paper, institutional quality is included in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and its effect on choosing environmental policy is considered. The results showed that pollution permit is preferred to taxation on pollution with various institutional quality degrees. In addition, with improvement in institutional quality, if only shock is an environmental shocks, then taxation on pollution will be an optimal policy.
Mr. Morteza Dehghandorost, Dr Hassan Heidari, Dr Sahar Bashiri,
Volume 22, Issue 2 (6-2022)
Volume 22, Issue 2 (6-2022)
Abstract
This research examines the macroeconomic variables reaction and banking sector with the financial and monetary shocks using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE). Considering the banking facilities and utilization of seasonal data for the period 1991-2017, the banking sector behavior in the economic dynamics is studied. Therefore, the linear-logarithmic form of the equations is obtained after specifying the model, optimizing, and extracting the first-order conditions. The model is simulated under two different scenarios by considering bank facilities as two types of capital facilities and working capital, and not considering the facilities. The results show that by occurring financial and monetary shocks, the instant reaction of variables is consistent with the theoretical bases of the economy, which indicates the acceptable ability of the model in accurately fitting Iran's economy. Furthermore, comparing the moments of the simulated variables with the real data, the success of the model in simulating the governing facts of the economy is confirmed. Finally, the results show that banking facilities could reduce the range of economic fluctuations and increase the stability of the economy. This issue can be mentioned by the economic policymakers in order to reach economic sustainable development.
Dr Mohammad Nikzad, Dr Mahdi Yazdani,
Volume 24, Issue 3 (9-2024)
Volume 24, Issue 3 (9-2024)
Abstract
Introduction
Balance of payment (BOP) shocks are one of the most important factors causing instability in economies that rely heavily on raw material export. Due to its dependence on oil revenues, the Iranian economy has been affected by balance of payment impulses in different eras, which have led to the instability of the macro-economy, especially the fluctuation of exchange rate, and sometimes occurrence of currency crisis. In the literature of public finance, there are several types of taxes on financial transactions, each of which has been introduced according to a specific purpose. Nevertheless, these taxes have common characteristics that are considered as basis for their selection and implementation at some point of time, especially during the periods of financial crises. These include curbing fluctuations of financial markets, collecting fair taxes and the possibility of reducing tax evasion compared to other taxes as the most important features. Tobin's original idea was a double tax on currency transactions, which is due when the currency is bought and sold. The mentioned tax has a bias towards long-term investment and leads to moving away from short-term speculation and ultimately creating economic stability. In general, this tax can lead to its spending by increasing investment returns and increasing economic stability.
Methodology
One of the presented instruments in the literature of open macroeconomics in order to control excessive exchange rate fluctuations, especially when the economy is faced with exogenous negative impulses such as international sanctions, is to control capital outflow through the Tobin tax in the exchange rate market. In this study, by presenting a DSGE model for an open economy and compatible with the conditions of the Iranian economy, it was tried to evaluate the role of Tobin Tax in stabilizing macroeconomic variables. The focus was especially on evaluating the exchange rate in response to the shocks of the balance of payment in the framework of the managed floating exchange rate system. The presented model in this paper is simulated using the Dynare program that runs in MATLAB software. Daynar is able to find steady-state values for variables of the model and calculates impulse response paths of variables in case of economic shocks. At this stage, the pattern is written in the form of a Dynare file, which should have 5 sections that include the introduction of all variables (including endogenous and exogenous variables and parameters), the equations in the model, the initial values of the variables, and the available impulses. If all the steps above are done correctly, the Dynare program simulates the model and produces the impulse response functions for the variables of model against the included impulses and a summary of the moments of the simulated variables. Hence, in this study, it will be tried to evaluate the role of Tobin Tax in controlling the balance of payments innovations in the framework of the management floating exchange rate system.
Results and Discussion
The results of the analyzed variables show that with the negative shock of oil export, the output also decreases. Due to the decrease in the foreign exchange reserves, the real exchange rate has increased initially. With a decrease in the output and an increase in the real exchange rate, inflation increases at first. With a decrease in the amount of the output, also the consumption will decrease. Finally, with a decrease in the amount of the oil exports, the balance of payment has also been disturbed. The results of the impulse response functions of the oil export as a balance of payment shock showed that the application of Tobin Tax has reduced the variance of the exchange rate resulting from balance of payment shocks, which is in accordance with the economic literature. The obtained results have also shown that, Tobin tax has reduced the deviations of inflation and the output that the welfare loss function have decreased.
Conclusion
Therefore, according to the resuls, the policymaker can use the Tobin tax as a more transparent and efficient policy tool than quotas in the exchange rate market, which lead to provide more efficiency exchange rate market in mid and long-run.
Balance of payment (BOP) shocks are one of the most important factors causing instability in economies that rely heavily on raw material export. Due to its dependence on oil revenues, the Iranian economy has been affected by balance of payment impulses in different eras, which have led to the instability of the macro-economy, especially the fluctuation of exchange rate, and sometimes occurrence of currency crisis. In the literature of public finance, there are several types of taxes on financial transactions, each of which has been introduced according to a specific purpose. Nevertheless, these taxes have common characteristics that are considered as basis for their selection and implementation at some point of time, especially during the periods of financial crises. These include curbing fluctuations of financial markets, collecting fair taxes and the possibility of reducing tax evasion compared to other taxes as the most important features. Tobin's original idea was a double tax on currency transactions, which is due when the currency is bought and sold. The mentioned tax has a bias towards long-term investment and leads to moving away from short-term speculation and ultimately creating economic stability. In general, this tax can lead to its spending by increasing investment returns and increasing economic stability.
Methodology
One of the presented instruments in the literature of open macroeconomics in order to control excessive exchange rate fluctuations, especially when the economy is faced with exogenous negative impulses such as international sanctions, is to control capital outflow through the Tobin tax in the exchange rate market. In this study, by presenting a DSGE model for an open economy and compatible with the conditions of the Iranian economy, it was tried to evaluate the role of Tobin Tax in stabilizing macroeconomic variables. The focus was especially on evaluating the exchange rate in response to the shocks of the balance of payment in the framework of the managed floating exchange rate system. The presented model in this paper is simulated using the Dynare program that runs in MATLAB software. Daynar is able to find steady-state values for variables of the model and calculates impulse response paths of variables in case of economic shocks. At this stage, the pattern is written in the form of a Dynare file, which should have 5 sections that include the introduction of all variables (including endogenous and exogenous variables and parameters), the equations in the model, the initial values of the variables, and the available impulses. If all the steps above are done correctly, the Dynare program simulates the model and produces the impulse response functions for the variables of model against the included impulses and a summary of the moments of the simulated variables. Hence, in this study, it will be tried to evaluate the role of Tobin Tax in controlling the balance of payments innovations in the framework of the management floating exchange rate system.
Results and Discussion
The results of the analyzed variables show that with the negative shock of oil export, the output also decreases. Due to the decrease in the foreign exchange reserves, the real exchange rate has increased initially. With a decrease in the output and an increase in the real exchange rate, inflation increases at first. With a decrease in the amount of the output, also the consumption will decrease. Finally, with a decrease in the amount of the oil exports, the balance of payment has also been disturbed. The results of the impulse response functions of the oil export as a balance of payment shock showed that the application of Tobin Tax has reduced the variance of the exchange rate resulting from balance of payment shocks, which is in accordance with the economic literature. The obtained results have also shown that, Tobin tax has reduced the deviations of inflation and the output that the welfare loss function have decreased.
Conclusion
Therefore, according to the resuls, the policymaker can use the Tobin tax as a more transparent and efficient policy tool than quotas in the exchange rate market, which lead to provide more efficiency exchange rate market in mid and long-run.
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