Showing 33 results for Ardl
Dr Abolghasem Golkhandan,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (12-2024)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
Ecological footprint accounting is composed of two metrics, the “demand-side” (ecological footprint) and the “supply-side” (biocapacity). While the ecological footprint calculates the demand for natural assets in global hectares, biocapacity symbolizes the supply capacity of nature to meet this demand with the same unit of measurement. Ecological deficit also shows the difference between ecological footprint and biological capacity. Globally, the degree of ecological deficits continued to expand over the last decade due to the increase in EF and reduction in biocapacity, which is caused by the following: increasing consumption of fossil fuel energy, overexploitation of natural resources, unsustainable production methods, and economic activities.
Iran is one of the countries that has a weak environmental performance. According to the Global Footprint Network, Iran's ecological footprint exceeded 333% of its biological capacity in 2022. Iran's ecological deficit, which was - 0.55 global per capita hectares in 1961, has increased by 554% to 2.50 global per capita hectares in 2022, and the destruction and pollution of the environment in Iran have reached unsustainable levels. Therefore, the analysis of the determinants of environmental quality can provide insights into the design of appropriate environmental policies in Iran.
In this regard, the environmental effects of dependence on crude oil have attracted considerable attention. Crude oil is an important and largest source of energy, especially for developing countries such as Iran. It is a fossil-based fuel and a major source of carbon emissions in the world. Hence, many studies have linked oil price shocks to environment quality. In contrast to oil-importing economies, where oil price increases encourage a shift to cheaper and cleaner alternative energy sources, the environmental policy issue in oil-exporting countries is entirely different. Indeed, a fall in oil prices may be associated with a decreased investment in environmentally friendly energy sources. By comparison, an increase in oil prices revealed a reluctance to diversify the economy away from its reliance on non-eco-friendly fossil fuel energy.
Based on the explanations above, the main purpose of this article is to investigate the asymmetric impact of scaled oil price impulses on the environmental Load Capacity Factor (LCF) in Iran using the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (MATNARDL) approach. The paper intends to make the following contributions to the literature. Firstly, this article is the first to look into the effect of oil prices on the LCF in Iran by applying asymmetric methodologies. Secondly, it is the first study with a reverse load capacity factor as an environmental sustainability indicator. Thirdly, this paper applied the advanced and newly developed MATNARDL for asymmetric and nonlinear analysis to provide a more robust result that exhibits relevant policy implications. Finally, this innovative study investigated the effects of oil prices on the LCF in Iran between 1961 and 2022 in the framework of the LCC hypothesis.
Methodology
The study compiles annual data for the period 1961-2022 for Iran from three different sources. According to Statista, OP represents average annual OPEC crude oil price (in US dollars per barrel). The data are obtained from the World Bank, GDP per capita, (constant 2015 dollars), Energy Consumption (EC) as kg of oil equivalent per capita, Ecological Footprint (per capita, gha) and LCF (the load capacity factor) are obtained from Global Footprint Network. Because the LCF includes biocapacity in the numerator and EF in the denominator, it allows for simultaneous environmental assessment on the supply and demand sides. A higher LCF indicates a better environment. The current paper's economic functions are illustrated in Equations (1):
LnLCFt=fLnOPt, LnGDPt,LnGDPt2,LnECt,εt (1)
The main objective of this study is to examine the major, medium and minimal scales of positive and negative changes in oil price on the environmental quality index in Iran. For this purpose, the MATNARDL is used as an estimator to examine the effect of minor to major adverse shocks and minor to major positive surprises in the explanatory variable on the explained variable.
Findings
The bounds cointegration test results confirm a long-term relationship in the asymmetric model. The estimation of the model has been performed by categorizing the positive and negative impulses of the oil price in three small (quantiles less than the τ30 threshold), medium (quantiles between the τ30 and τ70 thresholds), and large (quantiles greater than the τ70 threshold) scales in the form of MATNARDL approach. The results indicate that in the long term, small scale of positive (negative) oil price impulses had a positive (negative) and significant effect on the load capacity factor; while these impulses have a negative effect on the load capacity factor in the long term in both medium and large scales. Based on other results, energy consumption has a negative and significant effect on the load capacity coefficient, and the environmental hypothesis of the load capacity curve (LLC) in Iran is confirmed.
Discussion and Conclusion
Based on the obtained results, it can be said that the effect of oil price on the load capacity factor in Iran is asymmetric. Among positive impulses, only with increase in small scale of oil price, we can see an increase in load capacity factor and environmental sustainability in the country. Moreover, the positive impulses of the oil price on both medium and large scales lead to the increase of environmental instability by prioritizing economic achievements and activities over environmental issues
Volume 8, Issue 2 (6-2020)
Abstract
Aims: Land subsidence is one of the phenomena that has been abundantly observed in Iran's fertile plains in recent decades. If it is not properly managed, it will cause irreparable damages. So, regarding the frequency of subsidence phenomenon, the evaluation of the potential of the country's fertile plains is necessary. Towards this, the present study is formulated to assess the vulnerability of the Tehran-Karaj-Shahriyar Aquifer to land subsidence.
Materials & Methods: The vulnerability of Tehran-Karaj-Shahriyar Aquifer was determined using the GARDLIF method in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. Seven parameters affecting ground subsidence including groundwater loss, aquifer media, recharge, discharge, land use, aquifer layer thickness, and the fault distance were used to identify areas susceptible to land subsidence. Then, they were ranked and weighted in seven separate layers. In the next step, the subsidence location and rates were obtained using the differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) method. The weights of the input parameters of the GARDLIF model using the subsidence map obtained from the DInSAR method and the particle optimization algorithm (PSO) were then optimized. Accordingly, the subsidence susceptibility map was generated based on the new weights.
Findings & Conclusion: The results showed that by increasing correlation coefficient (r) from 0.55 to 0.67 and the amounts of Coefficient of Determination (R2) from 0.39 to 0.53 between the subsidence index and the obtained subsidence in the aquifer, the optimization of weights applied by the PSO algorithm is more capable for evaluating the land subsidence than the map created by GARDLIF. It was also found that the central parts of the study aquifer had the largest potential for land subsidence.
Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi, Ayat Zayer,
Volume 8, Issue 3 (10-2008)
Abstract
Budget deficit and ways of its financing,have different economic implications.The private consumption as one of the major components of the aggregate demand alongside with the private investment are also under the effects of the deficit.The total effects of the deficit can be separated into the primary and secondary effects.The primary effects of the defict is attributed to the causes of the deficit,while the secondary effects is related to the ways of deficit financing.The final effect is the sum of these two effects,which might be positive,negative or zero.The results of the study by the ARDL approach for the time period of 1342-1384 indicates that although the effect of the deficit on private consumption is positive but there is no longrun relationship between them.On the other hand effects of the deficit on private investment is negative.These results also show that the effects of the deficit on investment may last or endure for a long time and therefore it can be said that there is a longrun relationship between deficit and private investment.
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Volume 9, Issue 1 (4-2009)
Abstract
This paper is an attempt to investigate the impacts of macroeconomic variables on capital market in Iran using quarterly observations for the period 1991Q2 to 2007Q1. The macroeconomic variables considered in the model include GDP, prices, money and exchange rate. Arbitrage pricing theory is considered to model the variables. Standard unit root tests are conducted to investigate the order of integration in time series used in the study. Cointegration analysis is employed to estimate the model. More specifically, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework and error correction model (ECM) are employed.
The results show that stock price has a positive effect on GDP and price level, but a negative effect on money stock and exchange rate. The estimated coefficient of the error correction term is 15 percent indicating the speed of adjustment in response to deviation from the long run equilibrium is relatively low.
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Volume 9, Issue 2 (7-2009)
Abstract
Ahmad Jafari Samimi, Safar Farhang, Mehdi Rostamzadeh, Mehdi Mohammadzadeh,
Volume 9, Issue 4 (3-2010)
Abstract
Economic liberalization policy has been among the major concern of the governments during the last few decades. However, its impact on economic growth is still a controversial issue. The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of trade liberalization and financial development on economic growth in Iran using annual observations over the period 1973-2007. The current study would use ARDL technique to estimate the empirical model.
The findings of this paper indicate that there is a long run positive and significant relationship between trade liberalization and financial development and economic growth in Iran over the period of the study. The error correction coefficient is around 0.32 showing that the adjustment towards the long run equilibrium takes place within almost three years. The Granger causality test indicates that causality runs from trade liberalization and financial development to GDP.
Kazem Yavari, Sara Emamgolipour,
Volume 10, Issue 2 (7-2010)
Abstract
The natural disasters decrease the savings through reducing the government savings rate. However, the resultant disasters effect on total savings depends on the private savings changes.
In this paper, the impact of natural disasters on total savings is estimated using the data over the period 1973-2006. An Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) technique is used to estimate the empirical model.
The results confirm that natural disasters raise the average propensity to savings in Iran. Moreover, the coefficient of error correction term indicates that 69 percent of the disequilibrium is corrected immediately, i.e. in the next year.
Hadi Heydari, Zahra Zavarian, Iman Noorbakhsh,
Volume 11, Issue 1 (5-2011)
Abstract
The macroeconomic situation, government and central bank intervention in economy accompanied by business cycle consequences resulted from world economy, can stimulate profitability of borrowers and cause high default rates of payments for banking systems. In such an atmosphere, having an estimated model helps us to better understand the relations among macroeconomic variables, the behavior of bad loans and credit risk. In this paper, we study the influence of macroeconomic shocks on the bad loans from 2000 to 2007. At first, we apply an ARDL model, since the exogenous variables of this model have endogenous characteristics as well; we attempt to utilize a VAR model to explain the dynamic behavior of these variables. Impulse-response function is also used as a stress testing factor to investigate the impulse effects of bad loans to economic shocks. Based on estimated models, we study the effects of economic shocks such as loans interest rate, government expenditures, oil price and liquidity on non-performing loans.
Jafar Ghaderi, Karim Eslamloueyan, Sakineh Owjimehr,
Volume 11, Issue 3 (10-2011)
Abstract
An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), approach to cointegration analysis is used to study the short- and long-run determinants of housing investment in Iran over the period of 1375:3-1385:4. The explanatory variables include house price index, construction cost, household income, money supply, bank’s deposit interest rate, exchange rate, stock price index and gold coin price.
The short and long run results indicate that house price index, household income, exchange rate and money supply have positive and construction cost and stock price index have negative effects on housing investment. However, the housing investment is not affected by gold coin price and bank’s deposit interest rate. This research also indicates that the eslasticities of housing investment with respect to house price index, construction cost, money supply and household income are greater than one. However, it was found to be inelastic with respect to other variables.
Davood Behboudi, Hossein Asgharpur Asgharpur, Faranak Bastan, Yazdan Seif,
Volume 13, Issue 3 (9-2013)
Abstract
In oil-abundant countries, oil revenues, due to various reasons such as mismanagement, can influence the economic and social conditions and hinder development.
This paper examines the relationship between oil revenues and social capital in Iran during 1976-2007. To do this, the Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) approach and bound testing approach for co-integration are used to analyze data and estimate the model. The results indicate that oil revenues as an indicator for abundance of the natural resources have significant and negative influence on social capital. In addition, GDP per capita has positive impact on social capital in Iran.
Hossein Abbasinejad, Yazdan Gudarzi Farahani, Mohammah Hossein Ghiassi,
Volume 14, Issue 1 (3-2014)
Abstract
This paper aims to study the relationship between intellectual property and patent protection and economic growth in Iran using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique during 1979 – 2010. This model is based on economic growth models in 1990s. The number of patents is used to measure the impact of patents on economic growth. Moreover, we investigate the casual relationships among economic growth, degree of economic openness, foreign direct investment, information and communication technology (ICT) and human development. The results indicate that patent protection has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Furthermore, the casual relationships from degree of economic openness, foreign direct investment, ICT and human development to economic growth are positively significant. Based on numerical results, one-unit increases in ICT, HDI, patents, government expenditure and oil revenues lead to 0.10, 0.12, 0.10, 0.39 and 0.21 percent increase in economic growth respectively. Hence, we conclude that the higher intellectual property and patent protection results in high economic growth.
Parviz Rostamzadeh, Hosein Sadeghi, Abbas Assari, Kazem Yavary,
Volume 14, Issue 4 (1-2015)
Abstract
Sports and recreations as a forward industry play direct and indirect roles in national development processes. Sport increases the level of social health, reduces health care expenditure, and raises employment. It increases economic growth by incoming capital flows. Currently, sports and recreation activities industry is of main and influential influence on economic growth in the developed countries. Many countries have paved economic growth path with constructing infrastructure for global and continental events. In Iran, the presence of government in sport sector is very sensible. This paper examines the effect of government investment in sports on economic growth in Iran over the post-Revolution period (1979-2010). To this end, an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag method (ARDL) model is used. Estimation results show that government investment in sport has no significant effect on economic growth. Hence, it is recommended that government would invest in infrastructure and education related to sports for creation of public and professional sports with high efficiency.
Masoud Nikooghadam, Masoud Homayounifar, Mahmood Hooshmand, Mostafa Salimifar,
Volume 15, Issue 1 (4-2015)
Abstract
On the factors affecting economic growth and per-capita income, the less attention has been paid to “population age structure”. We aim to investigate the effect of changes in population age structure on per capita income in Iran. To do this, we identify the most important effective channels according to review of literature. Then we design an empirical model that indicates the relationship between population age structure and per-capita income based on the neoclassical growth literature. In the next step we estimate and test the model in three specifications by Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) method during 1968-2010. The results indicate that the per capita income elasticity of labor supply (as the direct effectiveness channel of changes in population age structure on per capita income) is positive. In addition, indirect channels (which include savings, human capital and government spending) indicate that the per capita income elasticity with respect to an increase in share of population between the ages 15 to 64 is positive, and per capita income elasticity with respect to an increase in share of population below age 15 and above age 65 is negative.
Karem Azarbayjani, Ali Sarkhosh Sara, Aso Esmailpour,
Volume 15, Issue 1 (4-2015)
Abstract
One of the main goals of developing countries is to achieve a sustainable economic growth. The exports promotion can directly help economic growth. Therefore, recognizing the factors influencing economic growth is of utmost important. Regarding the significance of factors affecting non-oil exports in trade policy making, this study aims to investigate the impact of exports insurance subsidy and other relevant variables on non-oil exports in Iran. To do this, the short- and long-term relationships between non-oil exports and exports insurance subsidy are estimated by Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) over the period 1995-2011. The results show that exports insurance subsidy is of positive effect on non-oil exports in both short- and long-term.
Hadi Ghaffari, Mehdi Jalouli, Ali Changi Ashtiani,
Volume 15, Issue 4 (2-2016)
Abstract
Besides economic factors affecting economic growth, some cultural, political and social factors influence economic growth and development too; inter alia, social components play important roles. Social instability originating from social threats is one of the most important social components, which affects economic growth.
This study aims to investigate the consequences of social instability on economic growth in Iran during 1981-2011. For this purpose, the Auto- Regressive Distributed LagModel (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) are estimated by Eviews.5 and Microfit 4.1. Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), an index for social instability (absence of social capital) is made. The results show that physical capital, labor and social instability have the highest effectiveness on economic growth, respectively. Paying attention of policymakers to improving social conditions and reducing social instabilities may lead to higher economic growth.
Kiomars Shahbazi, Seyyed Yousef Fattahi,
Volume 17, Issue 1 (4-2017)
Abstract
In order to allocate capital optimally and to achieve an appropriate level of employment, the manner and extent of impact of capital stock on employment creation should be investigated in different economic sectors. The paper aims to examine the effects of capital stock on employment in Iran’s industrial sector from 1980 to 2011, using a dynamic approach to demand for labor. In this regard, the demand for labor is estimated as a function of value added, wages, capital stock and labor productivity, using an autoregressive distributed lags model (ARDL).
The results indicate that capital stock has positive and significant effect on labor demand and employment across industries in both long-run and short-run, implying complementarity between capital and labor. According to the results of this research, granting more credits to the industrial sector, directing them to purchase new and highly advanced equipment and absorbing foreign investment will lead to create more jobs.
Ali Mohammad Ahmadi, Alaedin Ezoji,
Volume 17, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Abstract
Regarding importance of studies on different dimensions of total fertility rate (TFR), this study investigates the socioeconomic determinants of TFR at an aggregate level and identifies their impacts on TFR variations in Iran. By introducing four economic, social, cultural and health components, this paper tests the effects on dependent variable (TFR) using an auto-regressive distributed lags (ARDL) model and error correction mechanism (ECM). Results show that female life expectancy index not only had positive and significant relationship with TFR in several specifications, but also its coefficient was higher than the other coefficients. In addition, the relationships between TFR and other variables, except for GDP per capita, were expectedly significant in dynamic models. The speed of adjustment was very slow, and short-run fluctuations approached long-run equilibrium gradually with long lags. Regarding the effectiveness of different components, it can be said that health component is prior to cultural and social factors, and the economic dimension gets the final rank. Thus, an emphasis on fertility health, especially encourage to marry in marriage ages through social protection schemes could help population dynamism and to enhance the TFR more than substitution rate.
Mr. Zana Mozaffari, Alireza Kazerooni, Mr. Farid Rahimi,
Volume 18, Issue 1 (4-2018)
Abstract
The main objective of this research is to investigate the impact of financial structure on the Iranian economic growth volatility by applying GARCH & ARDL methods using quarterly data over the 1991-2015 period. The results indicate that financial development and financial structure have negative and positive effects on the economic growth volatility in Iran, respectively. The results reveal that financial structure in Iran is facing with several challenges, so that regardless of negative impact of financial development on economic growth volatility, the financial structure leads to economic growth volatility. In addition, oil revenues, government final consumption expenditure and capital formation have significant and negative relationships with economic growth volatility in the period under study.
Dr Mohammad Noferesti, Dr Masoud Abdollahi,
Volume 18, Issue 1 (4-2018)
Abstract
In this study, the allocation of resources of National Development Fund (NDF) to economic sectors in foreign currency and Rial is evaluated by making a structural macro-econometric model that expresses the reality of Iran’s economy as much as possible. This model consists of 45 behavioral equations, 28 connecting equations and 88 identities. Behavioral equations are estimated by the ARDL approach in Eviews 9 software using annual data from 1959 to 2014. According to Theil’s U statistic and root mean square error (RMSPE), the simulation of endogenous variables indicates that model gives a good explanation of Iran’s economy mechanism. Regarding different scenarios for how to allocate resources of National Development Fund to different economic sectors, simulation results over the 2011-2014 period show that if 80% of NDF’s resources is distributed in proportion to the share of sector's investment in total investment in foreign currency and remaining 20% is allocated equally to agriculture and industry sectors in Rial, the highest rate of economic growth will be realized.
Dr Esmaeil Pishbahar, Mrs. Sheida Bodagh, Dr Ghader Dashti,
Volume 19, Issue 3 (8-2019)
Abstract
Today, forecasting of economic and commercial variables as an important scientific field is developing, and forecasting of macroeconomic variables is of special importance for planners, policy makers and economic enterprises. The agricultural sector, as a producer of strategic products and provider of food for the growing population, has a great influence on economic, social and political decisions. Considering the importance of the agricultural sector in Iran as well as the existence of different and uncontrollable influential factors, the researchers who focus on agricultural sector’ growth, try to use methods of forecasting in order to get results close to reality, reduce the prediction errors, and design policies and plans to improve the place of this sector. In this paper, the mixed frequency data-sampling model (MIDAS) has been used to predict the growth of agricultural sector’ value added. Comparison of the model predictions with actual data indicates the predictive power of the model. This model has predicted the growth rate of agricultural sector's value added over the period 2017-2021 by 3.215%, 2.53%, 2.92%, 5.29%, and 5.99%, respectively.
