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Showing 3 results for mowlaei

Mohammad mowlaei, Abulghasem Golkhandan,
Volume 14, Issue 4 (winter 2014 2015)
Abstract

Boom and recession cycles in different countries relate to the U.S. business cycles. The study of severe recession in the U.S. can predict a contemporaneous global recession and provide policies to reduce the negative effects. This paper analyzes the business cycles of the U.S. using three stylized facts and reasons. The consequences of U.S. business cycles, as a developed country, have been compared to those of Iranian business cycle in the final section of each part. The period covers quarterly data for U.S during 1960-2010. This paper analyzes the data using VAR model. Our findings show the severe economic recessions have been started in the U.S. during 1980 and 2008.in addition, The U.S. economy has experienced the longest period of economic boom during 1980s and 1990s. Comparing business cycle features of the U.S. and Iran suggests that the severity and extent of boom and recession cycles is much higher in Iran than America. According to the stylized facts on business cycles, some common features of the variables have been confirmed in both countries. On the other variables, the Iranian model is the same of developing countries and the American model is consistent with the developed countries. In terms of the causes of business cycles, the private residential investment has been major cause of business cycles in American economy in the recent years, while exogenous oil price shocks on the Iranian economy has been the most important factor.
Dr Mohammad mowlaei, Zohreh Rahimirad,
Volume 18, Issue 3 (Autumn 2018)
Abstract

Poverty reduction and households’ welfare growth have become major issues in economic development in the recent years, so that poverty alleviation and individual’s welfare improvement are necessary conditions for economic growth. Evidently, fighting poverty programs need to efficiency in policy-making, proper method of implementation of policies, and identification of dimensions, causes and consequences of poverty. Thus, examining the poverty situation in each society is the first step in planning for fighting poverty and social exclusion. In this study, the poverty line of Iran's urban households is computed by using the theory of relative habit linear expenditure system (RHLES) in a linear expenditure system (LES). Data are extracted from Households Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) in urban areas for 8 commodity-groups over the period 1989-2015, which five economic, cultural, and social development plans have been implemented.  In addition, the poverty intensity is examined in urban areas using indices of poverty measurement. The results of study show that although the poverty line (minimum subsistence expenditure) in Iran's urban households goes up over time, but the intensity and extent of poverty go down. Thus, the government policies for the reduction of relative poverty in urban areas have been successful. According to findings, the minimum subsistence expenditure was 80296387 Rial in real terms (2011=100) in 1989, as the first year of the first 5-year development plan. It reached to 9677574 Rial in 2015 (the last year of the fifth 5-year development plan). In other words, it recorded a growth rate of 0.7 percent, on average, during the five development plans. However, the intensity and extent of poverty have experienced decreasing trends during 1989-2015. In 2015, the indicators of head-count ratio, poverty gap and Foster, Greer and Thorbecke (FGT) reached their minimum levels by 31.08, 10.9 and 4.3, respectively. The results confirm relative improvement in the subsistence level of urban households.
Dr Mohammad mowlaei,
Volume 20, Issue 1 (Spring 2020 2020)
Abstract

Foreign capital inflows (FCIs) are considered as catalysts for economic development and important sources of transferring technology and foreign exchange earnings from developed to developing countries. FCIs include foreign direct investment (FDI), personal remittances (PRs) and official development aids (ODAs), which contribute to economic development. This paper aims to estimate the effects of FCIs on economic growth in Iran by using an endogenous growth model and applying Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) approach over the period 1992-2016. The results of the study indicate that all three kinds of foreign capital inflows have positive and significant impacts on economic growth in the long- and short-run. However, FDI and PRs are more effective than ODAs on economic growth in Iran. The study suggests that sound fiscal, monetary and trade policies lead to full effectiveness of the foreign capital inflows on economic growth.

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