Showing 4 results for Vaez Barzani
Mohammad Vaez Barzani, Leila Torki, Naeimeh Jelvehgaran,
Volume 13, Issue 1 (4-2013)
Abstract
With globalization getting momentum, capital inflow has been an instrument for economies to grow fast in recent decades. Hence, identifying the factors that affect capital inflow and outflow - net international capital mobility- would be desirable to achieve economic stability. As usual, one of the factors that influence on capital inflow is high return of capital. New experiments explore the crucial role of risk and liquidity intensive on net international capital mobility. So, the purpose of this study is to analyze the analytical impact of credit risk scoring on the net international capital mobility in Iran within the period of 1980-2009. To achieve credit risk scoring, the Fink's scoring model has been used to identify the determinants of credit risk. Then, the rank of each factor has been appeared separately and finally the country's credit risk scoring has been estimated. Then, the final model using time series data and ordinary least squares method are analyzed. The impact of liquidity, different return of inside and outside and credit risk on net international capital mobility in Iran are discussed at the end of the paper. The results show that all mentioned variables have an anticipated effect on net capital inflow.
Somayeh Aghamohammadi Renani, Mohammad Vaez Barzani, Rahim Dallali Esfahani, Mohammadreza Ghasemi,
Volume 13, Issue 2 (summer 2013 2013)
Abstract
Banks as important financial institutions have drawn attention of economic researchers because their impacts on various economic sectors. Despite positive role which banks play, they cause economic instability due to providing services particularly intermediary ones, so that most of economic researchers consider banks as main cause of current financial crisis. With regard to role of banks in economic instability, this research pays attention to financial intermediary role of commercial banks as their main product on economic instability. In particular, this research tests the impact of commercial bank products on economic instability as the core hypothesis. The results show that commercial banks as financial intermediaries had negative impact on Iran’s Economic stability during 1981-2007.
Rahim Dallali Isfahani, Mohammad Vaez Barzani, Saeid Zareian,
Volume 16, Issue 3 (Autumn 2016 2016)
Abstract
Economic development, social welfare and improvement of living standards are main issues in economic planning, which requires higher economic growth as precondition. Time preference plays an important role in the health of the economy, given its contribution to capital formation, economic growth, and interest rate. The existence of the time preference reflects social impatience with the present value of consumption relative to future consumption. Therefore, if present generation attributes high weigh to itself in allocating resources between current and future generations, the available resources will decrease, and economic growth will stabilize in a lower rate. According to the microeconomic theoretical foundations, and using mathematical logic, this study provides a logical reasoning in analyzing macroeconomic phenomena. This research aims to illustrate how to time preference impacts economic growth. Using MATLAB software and calibrating the model for Iran’s economy, the optimal paths of consumption, savings, investment and economic growth are extracted with and without commitment. The results show that the optimal paths of capital stock, consumption and economic growth are in higher levels for full commitment than no- commitment, and these converge at the end-points. The final section will examine how to change in time preference and its impact on the optimal paths of variables. Running various scenarios show that an increase in the rate of time preference reduces economic welfare, the effective rate of time preference and economic growth.
Mr. Mehdi Bakhtiar, Dr Rozita Moayedfar, Dr Mohammad Vaez Barzani, Dr Ramin Mojab,
Volume 23, Issue 1 (Spring 2023 2023)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
Credit risk is the possibility of a loss resulting from a borrower's failure to repay a loan or meet contractual obligations. Traditionally, it refers to the risk that a lender may not receive the owed principal and interest, which results in an interruption of cash flows and increased costs for collection. Although it is impossible to know exactly who will default on obligations, properly assessing and managing credit risk can lessen the severity of a loss. Interest payments from the borrower or issuer of a debt obligation are a lender's or investor's reward for assuming credit risk.
When the borrower remains financially healthy and pays the agreed instalments and interest as scheduled, the loan is said to be performing. But there is always the risk that the company or individual will not be able to repay within the agreed timespan. If this happens or looks likely to happen, the bank must classify the loan as “non-performing”. A bank loan is considered non-performing when more than 90 days pass without the borrower paying the agreed instalments or interest. Non-performing loans are also called “bad debt”. To be successful in the long run, banks need to keep the level of bad loans at a minimum so they can still earn a profit from extending new loans to customers. If a bank has too many bad loans on its balance sheet, its profitability will suffer because it will no longer earn enough money from its credit business. In addition, it will need to put money aside as a safety net in case it needs to write off the full amount of the loan at some point in time.
Methodology
This study with a new approach examines the determinants of credit risk in Iranian banks from 2006 to 2019. Province, banking groups and time are three dimensions used in the modeling of this study as explanatory variables of credit risk. Furthermore, a three-dimensional panel data model is used to measure the coefficients of independent variables. In the case of two-dimensional panels, each observation is typically a vector of values of a dependent variable and one or more independent variables, and comes with two labels attached, one is frequently time and the other an individual person, business or nation. When the panel is multi-dimensional, each observation comes with many labels, for example, time, individual employee, firm, and industry. An observation could consist of values of multiple endogenous variables and multiple exogenous or predetermined variables, labeled with at least time and one other label. All of the problems and issues which arise for two-dimensional panels also exist for multi-dimensional panels.
Findings
The results of the study indicate that access to provincial credit has a positive effect and the size of the provincial banking sector has a negative impact on the provincial credit risk. In addition, among the variables of the regional economics, the provincial unemployment rate and the provincial real economic growth rate affect positively the provincial credit risk, and the provincial Gini coefficient variable affect negatively the provincial credit risk. The index of road network accessibility as a sensitive variable has a negative influence on the credit risk of the province, which means that in regions where the index of road network accessibility is larger, the cost of access for economic enterprises is reduced, so the profit margin and the ability to repay facilities by the enterprise increases and less default occurs.
Discussion and Conclusion
The banking system is subject to some risks in attaining its goals; one of the most important of which is encountering non-performing loans and ultimately write-offs. The emergence and accumulation of NPLs can become a systemic problem when this affects a considerable part of the financial system, threatening its stability and/or impairing its core function of facilitating financial intermediation. A significant increase in NPLs throughout the system can have a negative impact on the resilience of the banking sector to shocks, thus increasing systemic risk. NPLs may also be associated with higher funding costs and a lower supply of credit to the real economy. This may result from negative market sentiment towards banks with high levels of NPLs, which decreases banks’ ability to access liquidity and capital markets (potentially leading to credit supply constraints). In order to reduce credit risk, the necessary policies should be adopted to take into account the considerations of the regional economics in payment of facilities.
