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Showing 2 results for Sanjari Konarsandal
Mrs. Narges Sanjari Konarsandal, Dr Behnam Elyaspour, Dr Roohollah Babaki,
Volume 22, Issue 4 (winter 1401 2022)
Volume 22, Issue 4 (winter 1401 2022)
Abstract
Introduction:
Excessive carbon emissions and global warming caused by human activities have become serious challenges to the human society and have raised global concerns. Currently, air pollution has become so important in many big countries of the world and especially big cities of Iran. Air pollution has forced governments to adopt short-term and long-term policies and plans for solving it.
Policy uncertainty related to economic decision-making is of great importance in the global economy. Numerous researches have shown that the uncertainty of economic policies is closely related to various economic indicators. In addition to the economic effect, the uncertainty in economic policies has an environmental effect. Increasing economic policy uncertainty weakens the government's commitment to environmental governance and, as a result, affects the effectiveness of environmental policy implementation. Therefore, a reduction in economic policy uncertainty can reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Regarding the effect of oil on the economic conditions of oil-exporting countries such as Iran, there are two points of view: in the first point of view, the positive effects of oil on improving people's quality of life are emphasized. The second point of view points to the negative effects of the development of energy resources on the environment in resource-rich countries. According to this point of view, extraction, production and consumption of oil resources causes waste of resources and destruction of the environment of the regions.
Considering that environmental pollution is one of the most challenging topics discussed in the world, the main goal of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty and oil price on carbon emissions in Iran.
Methodology:
The model to investigate the asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty and oil price on carbon emissions is defined as follows:
where, CO2: carbon dioxide emissions, EPU: economic policy uncertainty, OP: oil price, GDP: gross domestic product and EC: energy consumption. In the process of estimating the model, the data related to economic policy uncertainty follow the study of Ashena and Shahpari (2022) from World Uncertainty Index (WUI), data on energy consumption are extracted from Ministry of Energy website and energy balance sheet, while other data are extracted from World Bank, International Monetary Fund and OPEC website during 1981-2018. In addition, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model is used to estimate the above model.
Results and Discussion:
First, the stationarity of the variables was checked using the Phillips–Perron test. The results of the unit root test show that all the variables are I(1). In the following, the existence of long-term relationship between the variables was investigated using the Bounds test. The results indicated the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables in the model. After ensuring the validity of the model, Wald's test was used to test short-term and long-term asymmetry. The results indicated the asymmetric effect of economic policy uncertainty and the symmetric effect of oil price in the short and long term on carbon emissions. With the identification of the long-term relationship and the confirmation of asymmetry in the economic policy uncertainty variable, the study model was estimated using the NARDL model and diagnostic tests were carried out. The model estimation results showed the asymmetric effect of economic policy uncertainty on carbon emissions; So that the effect of positive changes in economic policy uncertainty variable in the short and long term on carbon emissions was positive and significant, while there was no significant relationship between the negative shock of economic policy uncertainty and carbon emissions in the short and long term. Also, the results show that the effect of oil price on carbon emissions was symmetric; So that the effect of oil price on carbon emissions in the short and long term was positive and significant. Finally, to ensure the stability of the model, CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests were performed. The results indicated that the estimated model is stable.
Conclusion:
In Iran's economy, the government should spend the increased oil revenues resulting from the increase in oil prices to create infrastructures that will reduce air pollution, or in other words, invest the income from the increase in oil prices in technologies that they emit less carbon dioxide.
Governments in developing countries such as Iran, which are transitioning from agriculture to industry, should force industrial producers to use technologies that cause less pollution by enacting environmental laws and standards such as pollution taxes.
Iran is a rich country in renewable resources, and due to its geographical location (wind energy in the north and west of Iran, solar energy in the south of Iran), it can move towards the replacement of non-renewable resources with a systematic planning. Therefore, it is recommended to move towards the production and consumption of renewable resources, while preserving energy resources, in order to reduce the amount of carbon emissions.
Considering the positive effect of economic policy uncertainty on the emission of carbon dioxide in Iran, it is recommended to the government to give up its irregular economic policies in order to reduce the emission of pollution and to adopt its economic policies as a rule. Economic agents should act in a stable and predictable way to prevent economic policy uncertainty.
Dr Behnam Elyaspour, Dr Narges Sanjari Konarsandal,
Volume 23, Issue 2 (summer 2023)
Volume 23, Issue 2 (summer 2023)
Abstract
Introduction:
Tourism is a socio-economic phenomenon that begins with an economic decision about using leisure time and savings and has economic aspects such as investment, consumption, employment, export, and government income. Currently, tourism is one of the factors that providing income in the global economy and is becoming an essential factor for the investments and development of countries. The development of this industry is very important in developing countries, such as Iran, which are facing problems such as unemployment, lack of foreign exchange resources, and a single-product economy. Tourism is closely related to foreign direct investment, because tourism development has an urgent need for foreign direct investment in the tourism sector. Internationalization is a phenomenon that links tourism to foreign direct investment. Foreign direct investment helps in the financing, technology transfer, infrastructure development, job creation, and economic growth. Along with several benefits that foreign direct investment brings to the host country, it also plays a prominent role in developing the tourism industry. Also, the tourism industry, like many other industries, is disturbed by the fluctuations of the currency market. This disturbance in the tourism market is much more visible than in other industries, because the tourism industry is directly related to exchange rate changes. Considering that the development of the tourism industry is very important for developing countries like Iran, which are facing problems such as high unemployment rate, limited foreign exchange resources, and single product economy, the main purpose of this research is to investigate the asymmetric effect of foreign direct investment and exchange rate on Tourism in Iran.
Methodology:
The research model in this study to investigate the asymmetric effects of foreign direct investment on tourism is taken from the study of Munir and Iftikhar (2021) as follows, in addition, since the sanction is one of the influencing factors on Iran's economy in different periods and consequently on is the number of incoming tourists to Iran, so in this study, the sanction variable has been added to the study model as an important variable.
Tourism is a socio-economic phenomenon that begins with an economic decision about using leisure time and savings and has economic aspects such as investment, consumption, employment, export, and government income. Currently, tourism is one of the factors that providing income in the global economy and is becoming an essential factor for the investments and development of countries. The development of this industry is very important in developing countries, such as Iran, which are facing problems such as unemployment, lack of foreign exchange resources, and a single-product economy. Tourism is closely related to foreign direct investment, because tourism development has an urgent need for foreign direct investment in the tourism sector. Internationalization is a phenomenon that links tourism to foreign direct investment. Foreign direct investment helps in the financing, technology transfer, infrastructure development, job creation, and economic growth. Along with several benefits that foreign direct investment brings to the host country, it also plays a prominent role in developing the tourism industry. Also, the tourism industry, like many other industries, is disturbed by the fluctuations of the currency market. This disturbance in the tourism market is much more visible than in other industries, because the tourism industry is directly related to exchange rate changes. Considering that the development of the tourism industry is very important for developing countries like Iran, which are facing problems such as high unemployment rate, limited foreign exchange resources, and single product economy, the main purpose of this research is to investigate the asymmetric effect of foreign direct investment and exchange rate on Tourism in Iran.
Methodology:
The research model in this study to investigate the asymmetric effects of foreign direct investment on tourism is taken from the study of Munir and Iftikhar (2021) as follows, in addition, since the sanction is one of the influencing factors on Iran's economy in different periods and consequently on is the number of incoming tourists to Iran, so in this study, the sanction variable has been added to the study model as an important variable.
Where, TR (number of incoming tourists), FDI (foreign direct investment), ER (real exchange rate), INF (inflation rate), and SAN (sanction index). In the model estimation process, the data of this research was extracted from the sources of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund on an annual basis during the period of 1981-2019, the data related to the sanctions index was taken from the study of Iranmanesh et al. (1400). In this study, the sanctions index was obtained through interviews with 15 experts in the economy of sanctions in the form of fuzzy questionnaires and fuzzy logic method. In addition, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag method (NARDL) is also used to estimate the above model.
Results and Discussion:
In this study, before performing the cointegration test, the degree of integration of the variables was determined by using two unit root tests of Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Zivot-Andrews. The results of the unit root test showed that in the Dickey-Fuller test, all model variables, except the inflation rate, are integrated into the first order. Also, in the Zivot-Andrews test, the variables of foreign direct investment and the inflation rate are integrated in zero order, and the rest are integrated in one order. After performing the unit root test, the bounds cointegration test was performed to check the existence of long-term relationships between the variables, the results of this test showed that there is a long-term relationship between the variables. After ensuring the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables, Wald's test was used to perform the short-term and long-term asymmetry tests. The results of this test showed that the effect of the foreign direct investment variable on the tourism variable is asymmetric in the short and long term. By identifying the existence of a long-term relationship and confirming the asymmetric effect of foreign direct investment on tourism in the short and long term, the final estimation of the NARDL model was carried out. The estimation results of the model show the asymmetric effect of foreign direct investment in the short and long term on tourism. So that in the short and long term, the effect of positive and negative changes in the foreign direct investment variable on tourism has been positive and significant. Also, the results showed that the effect of the exchange rate on tourism in the short and long term is positive and significant. Finally, to ensure the stability of the model, CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests were performed. The results indicate that the estimated model is stable.
Conclusion:
According to the results of the model estimation:
1-Considering the positive impact of foreign direct investment on the number of incoming tourists to Iran, it is recommended that policymakers try to strengthen relations with other countries in the first step. Also, by adopting the right policies to strengthen the infrastructure, facilitate the issuance of permits and generally provide a suitable platform and a safe environment to encourage investors and foreign countries to invest in the country, provide the ground for the arrival of more tourists from all over the world.
2- Considering the positive effect of the exchange rate on the balance of payments of tourism, policymakers and, economic planners are suggested to increase the exchange rate by short shocks. But an increase in the exchange rate can cause domestic inflation, mistrust of domestic money and create rental income for profit-seeking people. Considering the negative effect of the inflation rate on the demand function of international tourism for travel to Iran, policymakers and economic planners should try to control the inflation rate in the country by adopting appropriate monetary and financial policies so that they can reduce its negative effect on the number of tourists.
3- The negative effect of sanctions on the number of tourists arriving in Iran indicates the fact that the application of diverse and extensive economic sanctions by the United States of America, the European Union and the United Nations Security Council against Iran has had a significant negative effect on attracting foreign tourists to Iran. It is recommended that in the first step, policymakers and officials take practical measures by conducting effective negotiations to reduce sanctions and at the same time, make decisions so that they can reduce the negative impact of sanctions in the field of attracting foreign tourists.
Results and Discussion:
In this study, before performing the cointegration test, the degree of integration of the variables was determined by using two unit root tests of Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Zivot-Andrews. The results of the unit root test showed that in the Dickey-Fuller test, all model variables, except the inflation rate, are integrated into the first order. Also, in the Zivot-Andrews test, the variables of foreign direct investment and the inflation rate are integrated in zero order, and the rest are integrated in one order. After performing the unit root test, the bounds cointegration test was performed to check the existence of long-term relationships between the variables, the results of this test showed that there is a long-term relationship between the variables. After ensuring the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables, Wald's test was used to perform the short-term and long-term asymmetry tests. The results of this test showed that the effect of the foreign direct investment variable on the tourism variable is asymmetric in the short and long term. By identifying the existence of a long-term relationship and confirming the asymmetric effect of foreign direct investment on tourism in the short and long term, the final estimation of the NARDL model was carried out. The estimation results of the model show the asymmetric effect of foreign direct investment in the short and long term on tourism. So that in the short and long term, the effect of positive and negative changes in the foreign direct investment variable on tourism has been positive and significant. Also, the results showed that the effect of the exchange rate on tourism in the short and long term is positive and significant. Finally, to ensure the stability of the model, CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests were performed. The results indicate that the estimated model is stable.
Conclusion:
According to the results of the model estimation:
1-Considering the positive impact of foreign direct investment on the number of incoming tourists to Iran, it is recommended that policymakers try to strengthen relations with other countries in the first step. Also, by adopting the right policies to strengthen the infrastructure, facilitate the issuance of permits and generally provide a suitable platform and a safe environment to encourage investors and foreign countries to invest in the country, provide the ground for the arrival of more tourists from all over the world.
2- Considering the positive effect of the exchange rate on the balance of payments of tourism, policymakers and, economic planners are suggested to increase the exchange rate by short shocks. But an increase in the exchange rate can cause domestic inflation, mistrust of domestic money and create rental income for profit-seeking people. Considering the negative effect of the inflation rate on the demand function of international tourism for travel to Iran, policymakers and economic planners should try to control the inflation rate in the country by adopting appropriate monetary and financial policies so that they can reduce its negative effect on the number of tourists.
3- The negative effect of sanctions on the number of tourists arriving in Iran indicates the fact that the application of diverse and extensive economic sanctions by the United States of America, the European Union and the United Nations Security Council against Iran has had a significant negative effect on attracting foreign tourists to Iran. It is recommended that in the first step, policymakers and officials take practical measures by conducting effective negotiations to reduce sanctions and at the same time, make decisions so that they can reduce the negative impact of sanctions in the field of attracting foreign tourists.
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