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Showing 16 results for Sahabi
Bahram Sahabi, Hussein Sadeqi, Ali Akbar Shurehkandi,
Volume 11, Issue 1 (5-2011)
Volume 11, Issue 1 (5-2011)
Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate on non-oil export covering the period from 1978 to 2006. The method used in this study is Panel data, and these countries are selected as the hosts: Turkey, The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Pakistan. In this research, Gross Domestic Product of the host country, Bilateral Exchange Rate, Price Raito and Dummy Variable are used as regressor for non-oil exports. The result of this study shows that, gross domestic product and exchange rate have positive effect, but price ratio and dummy variable have negative effect on non-oil exports of Iran to these countries. Also Cross Section Specific coefficient shows that exchange rate has positive effect on export to Turkey, The UAE and Pakistan, while negative effect on other countries.
Mohammadali Dehghan Dehnavi, Kazem Yavari, Seyed Ebrahim Hoseini Nasab, Bahram Sahabi,
Volume 12, Issue 3 (Autumn 2012 2012)
Volume 12, Issue 3 (Autumn 2012 2012)
Abstract
The weak axiom of profit maximization (WAPM) is used to analyze the optimization behavior of 18 Iranian banks within 10 years (2000-2009). In general the banks in the Iranian economy can be divided into 2 groups, state and privately owned banks. Nonparametric nature of this test allows us to study the profit maximization behavior of the firms without the need for any assumption on functional form of underlying technology. The WAPM is checked under 2 assumptions: constant technology and nonregressive technological change. Although most of the banks violate the deterministic WAPM test, testing the stochastic WAPM with measurement error and believing in existence of at least 1 percent measurement error in data, show the behavior of the privately owned banks and one of the state owned banks is consistent with WAPM under nonregressive technological change assumption. Although the behavior of the state owned banks is consistent as well if one believes in 5 percent measurement error, the difference leads to this conclusion that performance of the state development policies and objectives by the state owned banks has been deviated from profit maximization behavior.
Mohammad Hassanzadeh, Hossein Sadeghi, Ali Usefi, Bahram Sahabi, Ali Ghanbari,
Volume 12, Issue 4 (Winter 2012 2013)
Volume 12, Issue 4 (Winter 2012 2013)
Abstract
In this paper the impacts of oil price fluctuations on the household welfare for different income groups have been studied using computational general equilibrium model. Equivalent Variation (EV) criterion is also used to evaluate changes in household welfare. The results show that oil price fluctuation has a greater impact on income, expenditure and welfare of urban households compared with the rural ones. In other words, dependence of urban household income on oil price is stronger in comparison to the rural ones. It has also been revealed that an oil price increase is more effective than the price reduction on household welfare, income and expenditure. Ratio of EV to total expenditure is almost the same for the poor and rich households, implying that both of them suffer a percentage of welfare loss in the same way.
Bahram Sahabi, Hossein Sadeghi, Vali Khorsandi,
Volume 15, Issue 1 (Spring 2015 2015)
Volume 15, Issue 1 (Spring 2015 2015)
Abstract
This study computes the value at risk (VAR) of metal ores and pharmaceutical industries in Tehran Stock Exchange by using parametric approach (GARCH Models) and semi-parametric approach (the combination of Wavelet Analysis and GARCH). The results and evaluation of two approaches confirms the hypothesis indicating better and more efficient performance of Semi-parametric approach compared with that of parametric methods. In fact, in high confidence levels, the semi-parametric approach proposed has lower MSE and failure rates compared to parametric approach. On the other hand, investing in pharmaceutical industry due to the increasing health needs, increase in life expectancy and its effect on public health is less-risky than that of metal ores industry.
Lotfali Agheli, Bahram Sahabi, Nasrin Solhkhah,
Volume 17, Issue 1 (Spring 2017 2017)
Volume 17, Issue 1 (Spring 2017 2017)
Abstract
Optimal performance of an economic system depends on the presence of efficient, strong, and supplementary real and financial sectors. Working together of them is necessary and sufficient condition for the survival of the economic system in general. This study aims to explain the impact of transaction cost on financial development for OPEC members during 1990-2012. In the present study, the effect of transaction costs on financial development is estimated by an econometric model according to Baltagi et al (2007). In this regard, the index of the banking sector efficiency (private credits) is used to explore the development of the banking sector, and stock market turnover ratio (in percent) and Total Value (of shares) Traded (TVT)/GDP (in percent) is used to study the development of the non-banking sector. Explanatory variables include the transaction costs, the government size, the per capita income, and degree of openness of economy. The estimation results using Panel Data indicate that the transaction costs affect financial development significantly; and the reduced transaction costs result in increasing financial development. With regard to property rights, we conclude that guaranteed property rights raise the financial development. Also, per capita income and government size have positive and negative relationships with financial development, respectively.
Bahram Sahabi, Hossein Asgharpur, Saeed Qorbani,
Volume 17, Issue 2 (Summer 2017 2017)
Volume 17, Issue 2 (Summer 2017 2017)
Abstract
The issue of asymmetric effects of monetary shocks on the economy is among the new topics that have been studied by the New Keynesians. How to monetary shocks affect macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), prices, private investment in terms of nominal and real sectors, and economic policy-making is of great importance. In this study, according to the New-Keynesian assumptions, the effects of asymmetry in monetary shocks are examined using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in Iran's economy during 1979-2012. The results indicate that positive and negative monetary shocks are endogenous and depend on inflationary regimes in the Iranian economy, so that the effects of positive and negative shocks on GDP and private investment in the low inflation regime are more than those of high inflation regime. In addition, the effects of positive and negative shocks on the general prices' level in the high inflation regime are higher than those of low inflation regime.
Saeid Shafiei, Kazem Yavari, Bahram Sahabi,
Volume 17, Issue 2 (Summer 2017 2017)
Volume 17, Issue 2 (Summer 2017 2017)
Abstract
Economic theories suggest that increasing uncertainty induces households to reduce the growth of their consumption expenditure. This study aims to examine how to change the consumption expenditure of Iranian households due to uncertainty in government expenditure. To do this, using annual data for 1978-2012, first, a measure for government expenditure uncertainty was introduced, and then its effects on household consumption behavior were analyzed. The results indicate that uncertainty in government expenditure has a negative and significant effect on growth of household consumption expenditure. On the other hand, the effect of government spending uncertainty on consumption expenditure of durable goods is positive. In other words, Iranian households in increasing uncertainty settings face with the growth of consumption spending on durable goods. Thus, the government needs to create transparency in fiscal policy, to reduce policy uncertainty for households as far as possible.
Dr Moslem Aghayari Hir, Dr Hossein Sadeghi, Dr Abbas Assari, Dr Bahram Sahabi,
Volume 18, Issue 1 (Spring 2018 2018)
Volume 18, Issue 1 (Spring 2018 2018)
Abstract
The consumption pattern of typical household is a combination of quantities, qualities, acts and tendencies describing use of resources for survival, comfort and enjoyment by society or a group of people. In this paper, we examine the impact of cash subsidies on expenditure pattern of households after implementing Subsidy Targeting Project at both urban and rural levels in Iran. We estimate a panel data model by applying data on household income and expenditure survey (HIES) during 2004-2014. Findings indicates that paying cash subsidies significantly affects all 14 expenditure categories in urban and rural households, except for health expenditure in rural households. Consequently, the shares of eight urban expenditure categories and nine rural expenditure ones have increased, while the shares of six urban expenditure categories and four rural expenditure ones have decreased. In all cases except for home durable goods, the shares of urban and rural expenditure categories, the shares of other household expenses and transfers changed in a same direction. In both urban and rural levels, all increased shares of expenditure are related to current household’ welfare, but the shares of categories which increases future household’ welfare have decreased. It seems changes in relative prices after paying cash subsidies have persuaded households to sacrifice some investment, education, and health expenditure for additional expenditure required for meeting basic needs.
Dr Lotfali Agheli, Mr. Mehran Samdaliri, Dr Bahram Sahabi,
Volume 21, Issue 2 (summer 2021 2021)
Volume 21, Issue 2 (summer 2021 2021)
Abstract
The economic structure in oil-dependent countries is different from other countries. The human development index (HDI) may increase due to rising oil rents and subsequent increases in per capita income, but there may be no significant improvement in other indicators (literacy rate and life expectancy). The improper injection of oil rents into the country's budget without investing in manufacturing, agriculture and services, whether domestically or abroad, leads to the Dutch disease and “resource curse”. Bilateral official development assistance (BODA) from the members of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) can have a positive impact on human development without having a negative impact on various economic and social aspects. In this regard, this study examines the impact of BODA on human development using a Panel-Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (Panal-FMOLS) model in selected countries (Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Yemen, Jordan, Azerbaijan and Georgia from Southwest Asia, and Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Myanmar from Southeast Asia) during 1999-2018. The results indicate that BODA and health expenditure have positive and significant effects on HDI. The findings also indicate a significant negative impact of oil rent, population growth rate and unemployment rate on HDI. The effect of personal remittances is different in the two samples, so that these funds have negative impact on HDI in the Southwest Asia and a positive effect on HDI in the Southeast Asia.
Volume 22, Issue 3 (4-2020)
Abstract
In this study, two transport methods for tomato (room temperature and refrigerated transport) as well as post-harvest packaging treatments (thin polyethylene packaging bags, thick polyethylene packaging bags, use of 1%calcium chloride, use of absorbent paper in the box, and control) were examined at four stages of post-harvest consumer chain transport. These stages included: (1) Farm, after harvesting and putting in boxes, (2) Transport, after transferring products for wholesale and during discharging, (3) Wholesale, after discharging and when selling to local retailers usually 24-36 hours after harvesting time, and (4) Retail stores (2 days after harvesting time at most). The total acid level, vitamin C, and lycopene of the fruit differed across different farms, different transportation conditions, post-harvest treatments, and the four stages of product transport. The total percentage of unacceptable fruits was significant in post-harvest treatments and at different stages of transport. Among post-harvest treatments, packaging with high-density plastic and absorbent paper with 7.94 and 12.16% of weight loss, respectively, claimed the minimum and maximum physiological loss in fruit weight. The minimum post-harvest loss (4.21 percent) was related to high-density plastic packaging.
Estimation of Vulnerability Index of Modern Slavery in Urban and Rural Areas of Iran by Fuzzy Method
Mr. Faramarz Khalighi, Dr. Hossein Sadeghi Seghdel, Dr. Bahram Sahabi, Dr. Sajjad Faraji Dizaji,
Volume 23, Issue 3 (autumn 2023)
Volume 23, Issue 3 (autumn 2023)
Abstract
The findings of the studies by the International Labor Organization and the International Organization for Migration (2022) show that all over the world, more than forty million people are victims of modern slavery. On the other hand, studies of the Global Slavery Index (2016) show that there are more than 495,000 "modern slaves" in Iran. The emergence of such a damage is a stimulus to investigate and study this phenomenon and its determinants by calculating the vulnerability indicators for Iran.
Considering that there is no effective quantitative index in the field of improving the condition of slaves in Iran, the general goal of this research is to estimate a fuzzy index that includes the dimensions of vulnerability of slaves between 1996 and 2018.
We investigate the slavery situation in four dimensions: 1) Political and civil support; 2) Economic, social and health rights; 3) personal security and 4) Refugees and Conflict. The findings of this research show that the above-mentioned index has a downward trend during period under study.
Introduction
Slavery is any type of system in which the principles of property rights apply to humans and allow people (slaves) to be bought, sold, or owned by others like property. Over the years, this concept has been objectified in various situations such as labor, military, pre-service, etc. The life of a slave, with all its difficulties and hardships, is not the end of his personal life, in the sense of losing all the opportunities of a normal life; because it is possible for a slave to free himself. A slave soldier can be promoted to a senior military rank, or even a slave can become an important person in society. However, in the 15th century, the "Atlantic slave trade" destroyed this possibility. In such a way that over 400 years, 12 million Africans were transported as slaves to European and American colonies and did not have the possibility to return to a normal life. Even if they were freed from slavery, they were still deprived of some rights. Until the end of the 18th century and the beginning of the 19th century, efforts were made to dismantle the system of slavery and the slave trade, and this issue was banned in most countries.
Considering that there is no effective quantitative index in the field of improving the condition of slaves, the general goal of this research is to estimate a multidimensional index that includes the dimensions of vulnerability and the number of slaves. In other words, the main goal of this research is to calculate an index in the field of the status of slaves, separated by gender and province. The existence of this index helps policy makers to organize their actions in the field of slaves' vulnerability.
Methodology
In this section, using an analytical-descriptive method, variables in four groups 1. Political and civil support; 2. Economic, social and health rights; 3. personal security and 4. war and asylum are categorized and, the vulnerability index of slaves will be estimated using the theory of fuzzy sets over the years. To calculate the fuzzy index of each of the aforementioned dimensions of the vulnerability index of slaves, it is necessary to consider variables for each of these dimensions.
The indexing method for the vulnerability of slaves is three-step, so that first, a fuzzy index will be created for each of the above-mentioned dimensions using the fuzzy method. In the second stage, by combining two political and civil indicators, its fuzzy index is made, and for the economic and social dimensions, the corresponding fuzzy index is obtained.
Results and Discussion
Using the aforementioned data, the system was simulated with a fuzzy approach, and the vulnerability index of slaves was obtained by separating urban and rural areas and by gender, as described in the following diagram:
According to the above graph, it is clear that the trend of slavery in the country is decreasing and it has experienced a total decrease of 50%. Having said that, the conditions of the villagers are more difficult than the urban dwellers, and girls have experienced more vulnerability. However, in urban areas, the trend of slaves for boys and girls has been the same.
Conclusion
Paying attention to the vulnerability of modern slavery requires the creation of appropriate platforms and contexts in economic, social and cultural dimensions in the regions of the country, and increasing the role and function of people in different economic-social types also creates platforms for development. Therefore, it is necessary to review the definitions related to development programs from the perspective of anti-slavery and to formulate and apply different levels of programs according to the characteristics and conditions of boys and girls in urban and rural areas. Therefore, according to the results of this research, it is suggested that the key policy priorities to reduce or eliminate forced labor and forced marriage should be changed and formulated in such a way that the rights and freedom of workers to determine wages and choose workplaces are recognized, and policies should be fair and anti-discriminatory in hiring workers
Mrs. Najme Mohammadi, Dr. Bahram Sahabi, Dr. Hassan Heydari, Dr. Hossein Sadeghi,
Volume 23, Issue 4 (winter 2023)
Volume 23, Issue 4 (winter 2023)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
Technology provides an opportunity for the economy to move from polluting sources to renewable sources to meet energy needs. Increasing economic complexity means more use of technology and innovation in production and may cause the expansion of effective technological products such as renewable energy. In the past few decades, the share of renewable energy has increased due to a wide range of factors, such as government regulations to promote the use of renewable energy, reduction in the cost of installing renewable energy and increasing production capacity, oil price fluctuations, and the positive effects of renewable energy in reducing emissions. Carbon and innovation processes have increased in the energy sector. Therefore, in this research, the effects of renewable energy consumption and economic complexity as well as their mutual effects on environmental pollution have been investigated using the GMM method in developing countries over the period 2000-2019.
Methodology
In dynamic models, due to the presence of a lagged dependent variable, OLS or GLS methods cannot be used to estimate the model, because the disturbance components are correlated with the lagged dependent variable, and the estimation results are biased and inconsistent as before. Therefore, to solve this problem, the GMM method proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991) is used. The GMM estimator belongs to the set of instrumental variables’ estimators. In this method, in addition to solve the problem of the correlation of the independent variable with disturbance components, the endogeneity of the variables and the heteroscedasticity of the variances are also removed. It should be noted that this method is applicable when T (number of periods) is smaller than N (number of sections).
Results
The results show that the economic complexity index has a negative and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries. Variables such as trade openness and energy intensity increase carbon dioxide emissions, and the Kuznets curve hypothesis is confirmed for developing countries, and economic complexity leads to an upward movement of the Kuznets curve. Renewable energy consumption has a significant effect on reducing carbon dioxide emissions, and also at higher levels of economic complexity, renewable energy consumption causes a greater reduction in carbon dioxide emissions.
Conclusion and Discussion
The need for a more accurate understanding of economic phenomena has prompted economists to review previous theories and present new theories that have a new window to economic development literature. The goal of all countries is to achieve sustainable economic growth and development. Renewable energy technologies are promising, but there is very little information about its role as a limiting factor in reducing environmental pollution, especially in developing countries. Therefore, in this research, the effects of renewable energy consumption and economic complexity as well as their mutual effects on environmental pollution have been investigated using the GMM method in developing countries over the period 2000-2019. The results show that the economic complexity index has a negative and significant effect on the emission of carbon dioxide, so it can be said that for developing countries, moving towards a more knowledge-oriented economy can improve the quality of the environment. The variables of trade openness, energy intensity significantly affect positively CO2 emissions. The EKC hypothesis was confirmed with the positive logarithm of GDP per capita and its negative square coefficient. According to the results of the study, economic complexity in countries under study leads to an upward movement of EKC, which means that as economic complexity increases in developing countries due to increased energy demand, scale effects occur and lead to higher CO2 emissions.
In this study, energy intensity has a positive effect on the increase in carbon dioxide emissions and as a result the increase in environmental pollution in developing countries.
The specific result of this article is the significant effect of renewable energy consumption on the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries. At higher levels of economic complexity, renewable energy consumption causes a greater reduction in CO2 emissions. In terms of the role of complexity, it can be argued that in countries under consideration, the share of renewable energy should be significantly increased by using innovation processes in the energy sector. Considering the negative effects of the share of renewable energies on carbon dioxide emissions per capita, it is suggested to define new patterns of energy consumption by relying on renewable energies in development programs and using incentive tools to replace renewable energies instead of fossil fuels to reduce pollution. Developing countries should support knowledge-based industries, increase the import and production of environmentally friendly technologies, and increase the share of renewable energy in their plans to protect the environment. In addition, pricing strategies can be proposed to avoid increased fossil fuel consumption.
Technology provides an opportunity for the economy to move from polluting sources to renewable sources to meet energy needs. Increasing economic complexity means more use of technology and innovation in production and may cause the expansion of effective technological products such as renewable energy. In the past few decades, the share of renewable energy has increased due to a wide range of factors, such as government regulations to promote the use of renewable energy, reduction in the cost of installing renewable energy and increasing production capacity, oil price fluctuations, and the positive effects of renewable energy in reducing emissions. Carbon and innovation processes have increased in the energy sector. Therefore, in this research, the effects of renewable energy consumption and economic complexity as well as their mutual effects on environmental pollution have been investigated using the GMM method in developing countries over the period 2000-2019.
Methodology
In dynamic models, due to the presence of a lagged dependent variable, OLS or GLS methods cannot be used to estimate the model, because the disturbance components are correlated with the lagged dependent variable, and the estimation results are biased and inconsistent as before. Therefore, to solve this problem, the GMM method proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991) is used. The GMM estimator belongs to the set of instrumental variables’ estimators. In this method, in addition to solve the problem of the correlation of the independent variable with disturbance components, the endogeneity of the variables and the heteroscedasticity of the variances are also removed. It should be noted that this method is applicable when T (number of periods) is smaller than N (number of sections).
Results
The results show that the economic complexity index has a negative and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries. Variables such as trade openness and energy intensity increase carbon dioxide emissions, and the Kuznets curve hypothesis is confirmed for developing countries, and economic complexity leads to an upward movement of the Kuznets curve. Renewable energy consumption has a significant effect on reducing carbon dioxide emissions, and also at higher levels of economic complexity, renewable energy consumption causes a greater reduction in carbon dioxide emissions.
Conclusion and Discussion
The need for a more accurate understanding of economic phenomena has prompted economists to review previous theories and present new theories that have a new window to economic development literature. The goal of all countries is to achieve sustainable economic growth and development. Renewable energy technologies are promising, but there is very little information about its role as a limiting factor in reducing environmental pollution, especially in developing countries. Therefore, in this research, the effects of renewable energy consumption and economic complexity as well as their mutual effects on environmental pollution have been investigated using the GMM method in developing countries over the period 2000-2019. The results show that the economic complexity index has a negative and significant effect on the emission of carbon dioxide, so it can be said that for developing countries, moving towards a more knowledge-oriented economy can improve the quality of the environment. The variables of trade openness, energy intensity significantly affect positively CO2 emissions. The EKC hypothesis was confirmed with the positive logarithm of GDP per capita and its negative square coefficient. According to the results of the study, economic complexity in countries under study leads to an upward movement of EKC, which means that as economic complexity increases in developing countries due to increased energy demand, scale effects occur and lead to higher CO2 emissions.
In this study, energy intensity has a positive effect on the increase in carbon dioxide emissions and as a result the increase in environmental pollution in developing countries.
The specific result of this article is the significant effect of renewable energy consumption on the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries. At higher levels of economic complexity, renewable energy consumption causes a greater reduction in CO2 emissions. In terms of the role of complexity, it can be argued that in countries under consideration, the share of renewable energy should be significantly increased by using innovation processes in the energy sector. Considering the negative effects of the share of renewable energies on carbon dioxide emissions per capita, it is suggested to define new patterns of energy consumption by relying on renewable energies in development programs and using incentive tools to replace renewable energies instead of fossil fuels to reduce pollution. Developing countries should support knowledge-based industries, increase the import and production of environmentally friendly technologies, and increase the share of renewable energy in their plans to protect the environment. In addition, pricing strategies can be proposed to avoid increased fossil fuel consumption.
Mrs. Mahboubeh Abaszadeh, Dr Bahram Sahabi, Dr Hassan Heydari,
Volume 24, Issue 1 (spring 2024)
Volume 24, Issue 1 (spring 2024)
Abstract
The aim of this study is the comparative study of the intervention in foreign exchange markets in Iran, Türkiye and Mexico. Therefore, the goals, methods, and different tactics of the foreign exchange interventions of the central banks are discussed. In addition, in this study, to investigate and compare the behavior of the monetary authorities in the face of increasing exchange rate fluctuations, using the ordinary least squares method, the reaction function of the central bank has been estimated. The results of this research show that the foreign exchange interventions in Iran are different from those of Türkiye and Mexico in terms of the key features investigated. Also, according to the reaction function estimation results, in these countries the increase in the exchange rate leads to more sensitivity of the monetary authorities compared to its decrease.
Introduction
In this research, by examining the features of foreign exchange interventions, the differences and similarities of this foreign exchange policy are evaluated in Iran, Türkiye, and Mexico. Due to features such as the establishment of a floating currency system, the availability of daily intervention data, and the experience of currency crises, two emerging economies, Mexico and Türkiye, have been chosen to match the characteristics of foreign exchange interventions with interventions in Iran.
Methodology
First, we examine the general policies and laws of central banks in relation to foreign exchange policies in Türkiye and Iran. Then we have compared Iran, Mexico, and Türkiye's measures related to foreign exchange interventions. Laws, characteristics, reasons, and laws of foreign exchange interventions in Türkiye, Mexico and Iran are evaluated. The results of this research show how the laws, goals, and implementation methods of different foreign exchange interventions in Türkiye, Mexico, and Iran will reflect different reactions of the monetary authority. In this research, the ordinary least squares method is used to estimate the reaction function of the central banks of Iran, Mexico, and Türkiye. We consider the reaction function of the central bank as follows:
R t = c + α e t ~ + β ( e t ~ ) 2 + v t
In this equation,R t e t ~
Findings
The interventions of Mexico and Türkiye are different from the foreign exchange interventions in Iran in terms of the level of transparency, regularity, sterilization, and the tools used. In addition, some goals affecting the interventions were also different in the three countries. This result shows that among the monetary authorities of all three countries, there is a fear of an increase in the exchange rate, and the foreign exchange interventions of the countries are mainly aimed at reducing the exchange rate.
Discussion and Conclusion
The results show that the interventions of Mexico and Türkiye are different from the foreign exchange interventions in Iran in terms of the level of transparency, regularity, sterilization and the tools used. In addition, some goals affecting the interventions were also different in the three countries. Also, the results show that the monetary authorities of all three countries are more sensitive to an increase in the exchange rate than to a decrease in the exchange rate.
Introduction
In this research, by examining the features of foreign exchange interventions, the differences and similarities of this foreign exchange policy are evaluated in Iran, Türkiye, and Mexico. Due to features such as the establishment of a floating currency system, the availability of daily intervention data, and the experience of currency crises, two emerging economies, Mexico and Türkiye, have been chosen to match the characteristics of foreign exchange interventions with interventions in Iran.
Methodology
First, we examine the general policies and laws of central banks in relation to foreign exchange policies in Türkiye and Iran. Then we have compared Iran, Mexico, and Türkiye's measures related to foreign exchange interventions. Laws, characteristics, reasons, and laws of foreign exchange interventions in Türkiye, Mexico and Iran are evaluated. The results of this research show how the laws, goals, and implementation methods of different foreign exchange interventions in Türkiye, Mexico, and Iran will reflect different reactions of the monetary authority. In this research, the ordinary least squares method is used to estimate the reaction function of the central banks of Iran, Mexico, and Türkiye. We consider the reaction function of the central bank as follows:
In this equation,
Findings
The interventions of Mexico and Türkiye are different from the foreign exchange interventions in Iran in terms of the level of transparency, regularity, sterilization, and the tools used. In addition, some goals affecting the interventions were also different in the three countries. This result shows that among the monetary authorities of all three countries, there is a fear of an increase in the exchange rate, and the foreign exchange interventions of the countries are mainly aimed at reducing the exchange rate.
Discussion and Conclusion
The results show that the interventions of Mexico and Türkiye are different from the foreign exchange interventions in Iran in terms of the level of transparency, regularity, sterilization and the tools used. In addition, some goals affecting the interventions were also different in the three countries. Also, the results show that the monetary authorities of all three countries are more sensitive to an increase in the exchange rate than to a decrease in the exchange rate.
Mrs Najme Mohamadi, Dr Bahram Sahabi, Dr Hassan Heydari, Dr Hosin Sadeghi,
Volume 24, Issue 2 (summer 2024)
Volume 24, Issue 2 (summer 2024)
Abstract
Introduction
Economic complexity is an index that has been raised in the last decade and indicates the use of technology in the process of producing goods and services of a country, which leads to increased economic growth and prosperity by creating a productive structure in the composition, increased productivity and diversity of manufactured products. Economic complexity is expected to affect energy consumption because the type of products produced is an important determinant of energy consumption. If countries operate in energy-intensive industries such as metals, chemicals, and forest products, energy consumption will be high, and if they specialize in low energy and highly complex products, energy consumption in these countries will decrease. In addition, the level of technological knowledge of countries can significantly affect energy efficiency. Therefore, in this research, the effects of economic complexity and economic growth on renewable, non-renewable and total energy consumption in developing and developed countries in the period of 2000-2020 have been investigated by GMM method.
Methodology
GMM estimator is a subset of instrumental variable method estimators. In this method, in addition to solving the problem of correlation of the independent variable with disturbance components, the endogeneity of the variables and the heterogeneity of the variance of the model are also solved. It should be noted that this method is applicable when T is smaller than N (number of segments).
Results
The results of this research show that the economic complexity index affects the development of renewable energy in developing and developed countries and also causes a decrease in the use of non-renewable energy and total energy consumption in developed countries and an increase in the use of non-renewable and total energy consumption in developing countries. It is currently being developed. In this research, the opening of trade has had a positive effect on the consumption of renewable energy in both groups of countries, and in developed countries, the opening of trade has reduced the consumption of non-renewable and total energy, and in developing countries, the opposite result has been obtained. In both groups of countries, energy consumption has a positive relationship with income level. Also, the results show that if economic growth is accompanied with higher technology, it can lead to a lower increase in total energy consumption in both groups of countries.
Conclusion and Discussion
As mentioned in the introduction, economic complexity represents a complex and knowledge-based production structure of a given country that takes a long time to mature. When economic complexity increases, the use of non-renewable energy and environmental degradation increases first in a given country. However, with the increase of environmental preferences in a society, the economic actors change their energy by using non-renewable energy habits. This is completely consistent with the results of the estimation models as explained above. Based on the obtained results, it can be said that economic complexity is a policy factor for the overall transformation of renewable energy and demand for greener energy. The study recommends that complexity and structural change policies should be implemented for cleaner and greener growth and overall promotion of greener energy in developing and developed countries. Due to the movement of developing countries towards the development of technology, the need for energy will increase in the coming years. Hence, there is a need for policymakers to plan to meet energy needs. Considering the existing limitations in the use of fossil energy, which leads to complications such as environmental pollution and resource depletion, necessary investments should be made for the development of clean and renewable energy. In order to reduce energy consumption, policies that increase energy efficiency or prevent any form of waste should be formulated, especially in economic sectors. In this regard, Can and Guzgur recommend that the level of fossil energy consumption in each industry should be clearly estimated and based on that, governments should establish specific laws for each industry. Through developing policies related to trade facilitation, they should also reduce the cost of importing new technologies, or decrease the cost of discovering new technologies via financing research and development institutions. Governments should promote energy regulations to reduce fossil fuel dependence and energy intensity. Future studies could examine the impact of economic complexity on energy demand in terms of oil-importing versus oil-exporting economies. Examining the effects of economic complexity on different aspects of energy (e.g., electric and nuclear energy) can be an important research question for researchers working on energy strategy.
Economic complexity is an index that has been raised in the last decade and indicates the use of technology in the process of producing goods and services of a country, which leads to increased economic growth and prosperity by creating a productive structure in the composition, increased productivity and diversity of manufactured products. Economic complexity is expected to affect energy consumption because the type of products produced is an important determinant of energy consumption. If countries operate in energy-intensive industries such as metals, chemicals, and forest products, energy consumption will be high, and if they specialize in low energy and highly complex products, energy consumption in these countries will decrease. In addition, the level of technological knowledge of countries can significantly affect energy efficiency. Therefore, in this research, the effects of economic complexity and economic growth on renewable, non-renewable and total energy consumption in developing and developed countries in the period of 2000-2020 have been investigated by GMM method.
Methodology
GMM estimator is a subset of instrumental variable method estimators. In this method, in addition to solving the problem of correlation of the independent variable with disturbance components, the endogeneity of the variables and the heterogeneity of the variance of the model are also solved. It should be noted that this method is applicable when T is smaller than N (number of segments).
Results
The results of this research show that the economic complexity index affects the development of renewable energy in developing and developed countries and also causes a decrease in the use of non-renewable energy and total energy consumption in developed countries and an increase in the use of non-renewable and total energy consumption in developing countries. It is currently being developed. In this research, the opening of trade has had a positive effect on the consumption of renewable energy in both groups of countries, and in developed countries, the opening of trade has reduced the consumption of non-renewable and total energy, and in developing countries, the opposite result has been obtained. In both groups of countries, energy consumption has a positive relationship with income level. Also, the results show that if economic growth is accompanied with higher technology, it can lead to a lower increase in total energy consumption in both groups of countries.
Conclusion and Discussion
As mentioned in the introduction, economic complexity represents a complex and knowledge-based production structure of a given country that takes a long time to mature. When economic complexity increases, the use of non-renewable energy and environmental degradation increases first in a given country. However, with the increase of environmental preferences in a society, the economic actors change their energy by using non-renewable energy habits. This is completely consistent with the results of the estimation models as explained above. Based on the obtained results, it can be said that economic complexity is a policy factor for the overall transformation of renewable energy and demand for greener energy. The study recommends that complexity and structural change policies should be implemented for cleaner and greener growth and overall promotion of greener energy in developing and developed countries. Due to the movement of developing countries towards the development of technology, the need for energy will increase in the coming years. Hence, there is a need for policymakers to plan to meet energy needs. Considering the existing limitations in the use of fossil energy, which leads to complications such as environmental pollution and resource depletion, necessary investments should be made for the development of clean and renewable energy. In order to reduce energy consumption, policies that increase energy efficiency or prevent any form of waste should be formulated, especially in economic sectors. In this regard, Can and Guzgur recommend that the level of fossil energy consumption in each industry should be clearly estimated and based on that, governments should establish specific laws for each industry. Through developing policies related to trade facilitation, they should also reduce the cost of importing new technologies, or decrease the cost of discovering new technologies via financing research and development institutions. Governments should promote energy regulations to reduce fossil fuel dependence and energy intensity. Future studies could examine the impact of economic complexity on energy demand in terms of oil-importing versus oil-exporting economies. Examining the effects of economic complexity on different aspects of energy (e.g., electric and nuclear energy) can be an important research question for researchers working on energy strategy.
Dr Saeed Dorokhshi Moghaddam, Dr Bahram Sahabi, Dr Hassan Heydari, Dr Sajad Barkhordari,
Volume 24, Issue 4 (Winter 2024)
Volume 24, Issue 4 (Winter 2024)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
The belief that innovation is a crucial factor in driving economic growth has led governments worldwide to increase investment in research and development (R&D). Many countries intervene in the R&D process of the private sector by utilizing policy tools such as tax credits, subsidies, direct financing, and research and development cost subsidies. Data shows a significant rise in the use of tax incentives in recent years. In Iran, there has been a particular interest in implementing tax exemptions for knowledge-based companies and providing tax credits for all firms.
Empirically, the existing literature in this field is still underdeveloped, particularly in the context of developing countries. This report aims to contribute to the existing knowledge by evaluating the impact of tax exemptions on R&D expenditures in Iran as a developing country.
Methodology
To assess the effect of tax exemptions, we are interested in the R&D intensity index, which represents the ratio of R&D expenditures to GDP at the national level and the ratio of R&D costs to company income at the company level. The variable in question is a ratio between 0 and 1, like many other economic variables such as participation rates, market shares, debt-to-finance ratios, etc. The limited nature of such variables - and in some cases the large and significant accumulation of data at one or both limits - leads to limitations in estimates and inferences, and its economic modeling should be done with special approaches. In particular, the usual use of linear models is not a very accurate and correct method because it does not guarantee that the values predicted by these estimates are in the range of 0 and 1. In recent years, this concern has led researchers to focus on functional forms resulting from such data and develop models called Fractional Regression Models (FRMs).
In the model, the dependent variable is the share of a company's current R&D costs relative to total costs, which serves as a proxy for R&D intensity. The explanatory variables include the following:
Using a fractional logistic regression approach on the data of 2,678 knowledge-based and industrial companies collected in 2020, the effects of tax exemptions for knowledge-based companies have been evaluated. The results of this article confirm the positive and significant effects of this exemption on research and development costs of companies. At the same time, it is indicated that, compared to other variables in the model, the presence of researchers, the level of knowledge-based development of the location of the company, and the opportunity for access to external financial resources have had a greater effect on the share of research and development expenses. However, these incentives have been more effective than the company's technology level. Additionally, the size of the company has a significant negative relationship with the interest ratio.
Discussion and Conclusion
While our study supports the use of tax incentives, it is crucial to consider the broader economic landscape. Our findings highlight the importance of human resources and external funding. To effectively support knowledge-based companies and to create a more R&D-intensive country, it is not enough to solely provide tax exemptions for firms. However, mechanisms must be in place to foster reaching much more qualified human resources and to a greater extent finance. Financial incentives should be utilized in a manner that minimizes costs and maximizes economic growth and productivity. Future research can explore how to optimize the use of these tools, offering valuable insights to policymakers
The belief that innovation is a crucial factor in driving economic growth has led governments worldwide to increase investment in research and development (R&D). Many countries intervene in the R&D process of the private sector by utilizing policy tools such as tax credits, subsidies, direct financing, and research and development cost subsidies. Data shows a significant rise in the use of tax incentives in recent years. In Iran, there has been a particular interest in implementing tax exemptions for knowledge-based companies and providing tax credits for all firms.
Empirically, the existing literature in this field is still underdeveloped, particularly in the context of developing countries. This report aims to contribute to the existing knowledge by evaluating the impact of tax exemptions on R&D expenditures in Iran as a developing country.
Methodology
To assess the effect of tax exemptions, we are interested in the R&D intensity index, which represents the ratio of R&D expenditures to GDP at the national level and the ratio of R&D costs to company income at the company level. The variable in question is a ratio between 0 and 1, like many other economic variables such as participation rates, market shares, debt-to-finance ratios, etc. The limited nature of such variables - and in some cases the large and significant accumulation of data at one or both limits - leads to limitations in estimates and inferences, and its economic modeling should be done with special approaches. In particular, the usual use of linear models is not a very accurate and correct method because it does not guarantee that the values predicted by these estimates are in the range of 0 and 1. In recent years, this concern has led researchers to focus on functional forms resulting from such data and develop models called Fractional Regression Models (FRMs).
In the model, the dependent variable is the share of a company's current R&D costs relative to total costs, which serves as a proxy for R&D intensity. The explanatory variables include the following:
- Researchers: The number of researchers in the company, logged.
- Size: The sum of current and capital expenses of the company, used as an index of the size of the company in logarithmic form.
- Avalibility of External Finance: For each company which used any financial resources rather than its internal resources, the value of this variable is 1, and in cases where the financing is completely internal, it is considered as 0.
- The level of knowledge-based development (KBEDev): A variable based on previous studies, ranging from 1 (lowest level) to 3 (highest level).
- Tax incentive: For those companies subject to this exemption, the variable amount is 1, and for the rest, it is 0.
- Technology Intensity (Tech Level): According to the industry in which companies operate and using the categories used for technology leveling in the two leading organizations in this field, UNCTAD and OECD, number 3 represents the high level, number 2 represents the medium level, and number 1 represents the low level.
Using a fractional logistic regression approach on the data of 2,678 knowledge-based and industrial companies collected in 2020, the effects of tax exemptions for knowledge-based companies have been evaluated. The results of this article confirm the positive and significant effects of this exemption on research and development costs of companies. At the same time, it is indicated that, compared to other variables in the model, the presence of researchers, the level of knowledge-based development of the location of the company, and the opportunity for access to external financial resources have had a greater effect on the share of research and development expenses. However, these incentives have been more effective than the company's technology level. Additionally, the size of the company has a significant negative relationship with the interest ratio.
Discussion and Conclusion
While our study supports the use of tax incentives, it is crucial to consider the broader economic landscape. Our findings highlight the importance of human resources and external funding. To effectively support knowledge-based companies and to create a more R&D-intensive country, it is not enough to solely provide tax exemptions for firms. However, mechanisms must be in place to foster reaching much more qualified human resources and to a greater extent finance. Financial incentives should be utilized in a manner that minimizes costs and maximizes economic growth and productivity. Future research can explore how to optimize the use of these tools, offering valuable insights to policymakers
Volume 26, Issue 3 (9-2019)
Abstract
During past years, economists have been endeavoring to determine both relationship and causality direction between real macroeconomic and nominal economic variables. In this regard, many studies have been carried out on the relation between money and inflation, resulting in the introduction of the notion of money neutrality which implies that permanent change of money supply just affects the nominal variables and has no lasting and real effect on production and employment. Furthermore, even when constant changes of money growth have no real impact whatsoever (except on real monetary equilibriums); money is stated to be super neutral in the long run. Although the majority of economists (with disparate schools of thought) concur with long-term money neutrality, there are still different opinions on the short-term and middle-term neutrality of the money. In following some major of them are presented. This paper investigates the existence of money neutrality in the Iranian economy applying Fisher and Seater approach during 1973 and 2014. The time series analysis, ARIMA model, is used to examine the problem and we consider various monetary aggregates, M1 and M2. Results show that we cannot reject the hypothesis test of money neutrality in Iran. Because all variables are non-stationary and integrated of order one I (1) we can only test the money neutrality. So it is strongly verified that money is neutral and it does not have any significant effects on real non-oil GDP in Iran. Also it was shown that the results are not sensitive to different aggregate money supply.
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