Showing 8 results for Noferesti
Mohammad Noferesti, Mahboobeh Ahmadi,
Volume 8, Issue 1 (4-2008)
Abstract
The effect of the changing age distribution on national saving is estimated empirically in this paper. We have specified a saving function based on Ando – Modigliani’s Life Cycle Hypothesis which incorporates the portion of population in 11 different age groups to represent the age structure of the population.
Auto_ Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model estimation technique is based derived from the ARDL model. An Error Correction Model (ECM) of national saving behavior in also constructed and estimated in order to reveal the short run dynamic adjustments of saving towards its long run equilibrium. Data used in the estimation process are time series data within the period 1345 and 1383. Data are tested for stationary and co-integration estimation technique in used for estimating the coefficients of the model.
The results indicate that the age distribution in an influential factor an saving behavior of the population. A relative population increase in the age group of 15-24 and 55- and over, tends to lower national saving, while a relative increase in population within the age group of 25-29, 30-34, … and 50-54 has a positive impact on national saving. These in the age group of 35-39 and 40-44 have the highest saving rate.
Volume 8, Issue 4 (fall 2022)
Abstract
Backgrounds: In this research, an attempt was made to identify Candida isolates collected from women with suspected vulvovaginal candidiasis using single Multiplex PCR reaction as a swift and valid method. Beside, this method was compared with phenotypic methods.
Materials & Methods: In this study, 250 vaginal swabs were collected from patients referring to obstetrics and gynecology specialists. In addition to phenotypic methods, multiplex PCR designed by species-specific primers was performed to identify Candida isolates in a single reaction. Descriptive statistics were analyzed by t-test and Chi-square test in SPSS software (Ver. 22) (p< .05).
Findings: According to the results, 92 positive samples were diagnosed using the culture method. Four species were identified by culturing the specimens on CHROM agar. The most common Candida species isolated was C. albicans (54.3%), followed by C. parapsilosis (28.2%), C. glabrata (17.4%), and C. krusei (1.0%). The most common Candida spp. identified by Multiplex PCR method were C. albicans (50.0%), C. glabrata (33.7%), and C. parapsilosis (6.2%). Also, three mixed infections with C. albicans and C. glabrata as well as C. albicans and C. parapsilosis were identified
Conclusion: In comparison to phenotypic methods, considering the cost-effectiveness of PCR methods, the single multiplex PCR reaction was shown to be efficient in epidemiological studies on pathogenic species.
Seyed Amir Azimi, Mohammad Noferesti,
Volume 15, Issue 2 (summer 2015 2015)
Abstract
In this study, to find the relationship between the government budget deficit and trade balance in Iran, a structural macro-econometric model is set up. In the model, government consumption expenditure increased by 20 percent annually during 2001-2010, so the government budget deficit increased relative to the baseline. The financing methods of budget deficit and relevant effects on trade balance were analyzed in 4 options. The results indicate that government budget deficit increases by adopting expansionary fiscal policy in all options. If the budget deficit is financed by borrowing from the central bank (the first option), it will raise the monetary base and finally worsen the trade balance and non-oil trade balance compared to the baseline. If the budget deficit is financed by selling participation bonds to the public (the second option), it will reduce aggregate demand and finally improve the trade balance and non-oil trade balance compared to the baseline. If direct taxes and government spending are increased by the same amount (the third option), private consumption will decrease; and trade balance and non-oil trade balance will be deteriorated compared to the baseline. Finally, if the budget deficit is financed by the withdrawal of foreign currency reserves (the fourth option), oil revenues will increase, as a result the trade balance will be improved and the non-oil trade balance will be exacerbated compared to the baseline.
Dr Mohammad Noferesti, Dr Masoud Abdollahi,
Volume 18, Issue 1 (Spring 2018 2018)
Abstract
In this study, the allocation of resources of National Development Fund (NDF) to economic sectors in foreign currency and Rial is evaluated by making a structural macro-econometric model that expresses the reality of Iran’s economy as much as possible. This model consists of 45 behavioral equations, 28 connecting equations and 88 identities. Behavioral equations are estimated by the ARDL approach in Eviews 9 software using annual data from 1959 to 2014. According to Theil’s U statistic and root mean square error (RMSPE), the simulation of endogenous variables indicates that model gives a good explanation of Iran’s economy mechanism. Regarding different scenarios for how to allocate resources of National Development Fund to different economic sectors, simulation results over the 2011-2014 period show that if 80% of NDF’s resources is distributed in proportion to the share of sector's investment in total investment in foreign currency and remaining 20% is allocated equally to agriculture and industry sectors in Rial, the highest rate of economic growth will be realized.
Dr Mohammad Noferesti, Dr Vida Varahrami, Sahar Dashtban Farooji,
Volume 18, Issue 3 (Autumn 2018)
Abstract
Population age structure is a main factor affecting government consumption expenditure. This paper examines the effects of changes in population age structure on government consumption expenditure by using a Mixed Frequency Data Sampling (MIDAS) approach. The estimation results indicate that population age structure are of positive and significant effects on government consumption expenditure. In addition, government consumption expenditure is forecasted for 2014. To assess the predictive power of the model, the actual data in 2014 was not used. The expenditure forecasted by the model is 1437079 billion Rials, and corresponding real value is 1438316 billion Rials. This indicates the goodness of fit of model.
Volume 18, Issue 3 (9-2018)
Abstract
In this paper, the approach proposed methods for soil stabilization in road construction projects has been explored in the literature. Geological studies, chemical status and soil salinity, along with relevant tests, analyze data and present the results of theoretical studies, field and laboratory tests have been done. As a case study, Khur- Arababad Desert Road (KADR) is used. KADR is located in South Khorasan province, which has a desert climate and the plain- hills are evaluated in terms of topography. The annual average daily traffic volume of the road between 8500 to 9000 has fluctuated. A total of 11 soil samples were taken for studies of soil chemistry. In this context soil samples to determine the texture, pH, Electrical Conductivity (EC), the percentage of lime and plaster were tested. Results showed that most samples are placed in the category of saline soils. Defining what type of soil salinity that the region is facing, to determine the exact concentration of sodium, calcium and magnesium ions in the samples, advanced atomic absorption method was used. The soil is very high sulfate content at all stations. To study the physical and mechanical properties of soil 7 samples were chosen. The experiments included sieve test, the sand equivalent, the determination of specific gravity, determine the plastic limit and liquid limit, proctor compaction, California Bearing Ratio (CBR) and swelling test. The results showed that the use of lime for soil stabilization with respect to the necessary CBR number is quite responsive. It also seems that even in relation to the amount of lime, Lime 2% would suffice, although higher percentages such as 5 percent of lime will obtain more reliable results. The volume changes average with increasing the percentage of lime almost showed an increasing trend. Soil stabilization options including limestone, blast furnace lump slag and Ground-Granulated Blast-Furnace Slag (GGBFS), copper and magnesium oxide tailings. To determine the optimal amount of lime, examples of the 2, 5 and 10 percent of lime was prepared. The addition of four other factors, according to previous studies was 5% and 2% lime was added to half of the samples as a catalyst. Three modes including lime 5%, fine-grained magnetite 5% with lime 2% and copper tailings 5% showed the best performance in terms of increasing the CBR, uniform effect on all the samples, and a little swelling in treated samples in 7 days. Iron slags, especially when they are combined with lime, have demonstrated effective performance to CBR increasing, But this performance fluctuated sharply and not uniform in different sampling stations. Another reason was that the exclusion of iron slags was the economic disadvantage due to the long transport distance. There is also concern regarding the use of fine-grained magnetite that Inflationary in the long run to the formation of the mineral magnesium sulfate (MgSO4) in soil. Copper tailings and lime performance in preventing soil volume changes in processed samples approximately the same and a small amount of swelling has been observed in some samples. Therefore, the use of two additives including lime 5% or copper tailings 5% more is recommended.
Dr Mohammad Noferesti, Dr Mehdi Yazdani, Mrs. Nasim Babaee,
Volume 21, Issue 3 (Autumn 2021 2021)
Abstract
Assessing the impact of a monetary policy through the banking system on the economy is important because the highest share of Iran’s finance market belongs to the banking sector. For this purpose, this research aims to investigate the impact of changing the bank deposit profit rate through the banking system. This paper focuses on the role of deposits as one of the main financing sources of banks in a macro-structural econometric model over the period of 1973-2017.
In this respect, focusing on Iran’s banking system; a model was first formulated according to the structure of the Iranian economy. Then, three scenarios, including increasing the profit rate, decreasing the profit rate, and pegging policy, were incorporated into the model to observe the impact of profit rate changes.
The results of the simulation reveals a negative relationship between the deposit profit rate and gross domestic product. An increase in the bank deposit profit rate along with increasing the deposits through free credit resources raises credit provision by the banking system, causing a direct impact on investment. On the other hand, implementing this scenario increases the cost of capital and creates an inverse effect on investment. However, the impact of the cost of capital is stronger and leads to a reduction in investment and, consequently, reduces the output by 0.66%.
In the scenario of decreasing the profit rate, opposite results are observed, and the output increases by 0.71%. In the third scenario (Pegging deposit profit rate to 17%), however, the output increases by 0.46%. Therefore, the results implies that an increase in the bank profit rate is not confirmed by the theory of McKinnon and Shaw and decreases the GDP.
Volume 22, Issue 6 (11-2022)
Abstract
During the construction of steel structures, the executive groups often fabricate some stories and tighten the connection bolts, defined as the snug-tightened bolt in this research. The lower stories, in which the connection bolts are snug-tightened, will be pre-tensioned at least to the level of preloading based on design codes, called pre-tensioned bolts, in this paper. The connections will be complete, while some upper stories will have snug-tightened bolts. As a result, the stiffness of the bolted connections varies throughout construction, and the structural characteristics change with time. So it is necessary to investigate the seismic behavior of bolted extended end-plate moment connections in both snug-tightened and pre-tensioned bolts while constructing high-rise structures. Bolted unstiffened end plate moment connections are one of the most usable connections used as prequalified connections in special steel moment frames. According to the AISC design code, this connection can be considered one of the most important parts of moment-resisting frames with enough bolt pre-tension levels. In this paper, using three full-scale bolted unstiffened end plate moment connections designed according to AISC, the effects of bolt pre-tension levels have been examined experimentally under SAC cyclic loading protocol. Bolt pre-tension level has been defined as α coefficient to show the pre-tensioning level in three specimens. The bolts of the first specimen are not pre-tensioned, called snug-tightened bolts, and is reference connection. The bolt pre-tension levels of the second and third specimens were created in accordance with AISC and Iranian National design code and more to Fu of bolts, called pre-tensioned and fully pre-tensioned, respectively. The bolts' moment capacity, total energy absorption, initial rotational stiffness, ductility of connection, and stress and strain variation are investigated. According to the results, an increase in bolt pre-tension level would significantly improve the cyclic behavior of connections. Further, an increase in bolt pre-tension led to the initiation of the inelastic deformation from a minor rotation, and the ductility of the connection improved. The results show that the increase in moment capacity and energy dissipation in the pre-tensioned compared to snug-tightened is 27 and 23%, respectively. However, In comparison with the pre-tensioned, the fully pre-tensioned specimen has increased by 11 and 9%, respectively. As a result, the connection with bolt pre-tension level, under design regulations in comparison with the reference connection, can be considered a connection of a special moment resisting frames. So bolt pre-tension level higher than the value mentioned in the design code is better but not needed.