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The consumption expenditure is a key element of macroeconomic analyses, which accounts for considerable share of aggregate demand in Iran. Any effort for forecasting the future consumption trend is of special importance for policy-makers. In this paper, we specify a consumption model relying on theoretical basics in order to obtain desirable forecasts. On the basis of Duesenberry and Friedman consumption theories, we use genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to simulate Iranians consumption during 1973-2009. Then we select the superior model in terms of prediction power criteria and forecast consumption until 2025. According to the results, the PSO algorithm is efficient and accurate in forecasting consumption; and consumption behavior of Iranians is consistent with Duesenberry theory. In addition, the simulations by exponential consumption model indicate increasing average propensity to consume until 2025.  

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In last decades, most of the famous seismic design codes, had concentrated mainly on far field earthquakes. Generally no special requirements were introduced to minimize near fault earthquake effects. Near field ground motions have caused several structural damages in recent decades, causing seismic codes to be updated with related requirements. As a result, it seems necessary to evaluate domestic seismic design codes and their requirements to see their effectiveness in designing safe structures against near fault earthquakes. In this paper seismic behavior of concentrically braced frames (CBFs) designed based on different seismic design codes is comparatively studied. Various Frames of different heights, (5, 8 and 12 stories), and bracing types (X-bracing and inverted V bracing) are designed based on the Iranian seismic code (standard no.2800) and also taking into account the near fault requirements of AISC-ASD 89 and UBC-97. These frames are analyzed using a nonlinear time history analysis method, namely “Incremental Dynamic Analysis” (IDA) under near field ground motions. IDA is an emerging method in analysis of structures which allows estimating seismic capacity, limit states and demand via series of nonlinear dynamic analyses using multiple scaled ground motion records. A total of 15 near filed time histories are selected according to special characteristics namely: fault distance to site (less than 10 km), fault direction, earthquake moment magnitude, time history frequency content, time history velocity content, shear wave velocity in the site soil and near fault wave’s pulse nature. The 15 selected earthquake time histories were scaled in several steps. To achieve a more accurate point for yielding point of the frames, 0.1g steps were used in the initial elastic region. On other important step was to select proper intensity measure and damage measure. According to FEMA-350 requirements, the maximum inter story drift was selected as damage measure. For selecting a proper intensity measure, four intensity measures were selected and compared together, namely: first mode spectral acceleration , first mode spectral velocity , peak ground acceleration PGA and the equivalent first n modes spectral acceleration. Among them, first mode spectral acceleration showed the least dispersion in the analysis results. Finally, all the 20 frames designed were analyzed using the 15 time histories selected in multiple steps and IDA curves were extracted. Using FEMA requirements the points corresponding to 2 performance levels namely IO and CP were defined on summarized IDA curves using which it was possible to compare the performance of the frames. The results of this paper imply that frames designed based on the near field seismic design criteria of UBC-97 have better performance under near-field earthquakes comparing to others. It can be concluded that the requirements of the Iranian seismic code should be updated according to the effects of near fault earthquakes. Besides, frames with X-bracing system showed better performance in comparison with chevron ones. Also the deficiencies in the seismic requirements of the domestic codes are more obvious while designing taller frames and moving from 5 story frames to 12 story ones, their seismic performance obviously deteriorate.

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Exchange rate in Iran has been facing fluctuations for many years, and has been affected the economic structure. Therefore, studying the changes in Exchange rate is of great importance. In this regard, the present paper studies the effects of exchange rate shocks on investment and employment within a systematic multi-regional computable model using GTAP.8 in 2007. To assess the impact of these changes, two scenarios of a 10% increase and reduction in the exchange rate are considered. The results confirm the same movements of price and exchange rate. Increase in the exchange rate in agriculture, industry and mining sectors has caused a reduction in production and employment, but has caused an increase in both variables in the service, oil and gas sectors. The decline in the exchange rate has resulted in fall of production and consequently and employment in the service, oil and gas, sectors, but it has caused an increase in both variables in agriculture, industry and mining sectors. The total investment in all areas examined is in line with exchange rate changes. Therefore, positive exchange rate shocks can increase overall employment rate. The issue is important because the share of employment in the service, oil and gas sectors is more than its share in agriculture, industry and mining ones. In addition, the positive exchange rate shock results in an increase in investment, regarding the structure of exports and imports.  

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This paper investigates the effects of underground economy on the Iran’s imports demand for intermediate, consumption and capital goods during 1971-2011. In this study, the size of the underground economy of Iran has been estimated by using fuzzy logic and demand for imports has been analyzed within intermediate, capital and consumption goods separately. Our findings show that the average size of the underground economy of Iran is 20.64 % of Gross Domestic product(GDP) for 2001-2011 period, and the effect of the underground economy on the demand for imports of intermediate goods is negative, but underground economy affects positively the demand for imports of capital goods and consumption groups. In addition, import demand for intermediate goods with respect to the underground economy is less elastic and negative-signed, while import demand for capital goods and consumption goods with respect to the underground economy is less elastic and positive-signed.

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The exchange rate overshooting, which results from the monetary disruptions, has negative impact on production and investment in the main economic activities and de-stabilizes the whole economy because of their input-output linkages. Therefore, identifying the causes of economic instability can help to adopt appropriate policies and to create economic stability in the country. The main question is to what extent the exchange rate can cause instability in the economy. To answer this question, first, the exchange rate overshooting was calculated using the Hodrick- Prescott filtering method during 1989-2012. Then, it was introduced into the model by specifying the generalized Solow production function, and finally, the production function was estimated for the main activities of the economy using the panel data technique. The results show that the impact of the exchange rate overshooting on the major economic activities is negative.

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Sometimes, economic restructuring can cause the significant conservation of energy. However, any restructuring has specific costs, which may eliminate the benefits of reducing energy consumption. This article aims to measure the implicit exports of energy carriers’ subsidies. To this end, the consumption of energy carriers in Iran is briefly investigated. The implicit exports of energy subsidies are calculated using the input-output table in 2011 (prepared by Statistical Center of Iran) over the period 2008-2016. To do this, the net exports of energy content of goods and services are determined by the price gap approach based on the consumption basket at 2004 prices.  The results show that the production costs in the industrial sector has been influenced by welfare effects resulting from targeted subsidies and rising energy carriers’ prices, and a large portion of energy carriers' subsidies has been implicitly exported.  Indeed, energy subsidy as an exporting good has served as a source of income for the rich. Thus, one of the roles of energy subsidy in Iran is to provide foreign exchange, which makes it possible to import all kinds of goods and services to the country.

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Considering the significance of food security in the planning of developing nations, such as Iran, and the crucial role played by the private sector in food investment, this study explores the influence of technology spillovers on private sector investment in Iran's agricultural food industry over a 30-year period. Using the dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model and the 2010 social accounting matrix, the study evaluates the effects of technology spillovers in three scenarios: doubling foreign direct investment, enhancing research and development to improve production efficiency (with a technology deduction coefficient of 0.0062), and increasing capital and intermediary goods imports by 20%. The impact of these scenarios on private institutional investment in the agricultural food industry, encompassing agriculture and horticulture, livestock, fisheries, and food industries, is assessed. The results indicate that the first scenario leads to increased private sector investment in all four sectors mentioned. The second scenario does not increase private sector investment in these sectors, while the third scenario only affects investment in the fisheries sector, without impacting the other sectors of the agricultural food industry.
 

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In this study, a new composite index, called the SWI (Sustainable Welfare Index) is proposed to assess "sustainable welfare". This index consists of significant social, economic, and environmental variables in flow and monetary forms, and can be directly compared to the GDP. Despite the paucity of statistical data, an attempt has been made to make a relative assessment of sustainable welfare in the Iranian economy during the years 2004 to 2018. According to the comparison of calculated SWI with GDP, it has been shown that the two indicators have similar movements and higher correlations in the period under study. In addition, despite the availability of economic growth during the period, society has been below a sustainable welfare level. In this study, the threshold effect of three SWI sub-indices on the total index was assessed using the smooth transition regression (STR) Model. As a result, the sub-index "Social Expenditure" through changes in "welfare losses due to income inequality" is of threshold effect on SWI.

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Aim and Introduction 
Structural changes affect the share of final demand components in the whole economy. In fact, the importance of these changes is shown in the relative share of each of the economic sectors in terms of production and the factors used in production, If it causes economic growth through the organizational and institutional changes of the sectors.Therefore, structural changes are important and interesting topics in the world's economic research centers, and the results of these studies have important political implications. Since national and provincial credits are implemented in Iran every year in the form of numerous plans and projects, it is important to pay attention to this issue. First, it is necessary to determine the relative advantage of the provinces in order to optimally allocate credits in creating regional balances and to direct the provinces of the country towards regional specialization. Then credits should be allocated in the fields of growth and development and in order to create regional balances.
Methodology
In this study, due to the lack of up-to-date statistical data in the provincial area, the analysis of structural changes and regional inequalities has been investigated based on three scenarios. In the first scenario, in order to examine structural changes and regional inequalities, the method of basic economic analysis and the measurement of shift share indicators has been used. In the second scenario, structural changes in the interaction between Iran's provinces have been investigated using Heckscher-Ohlin theory. And in the third scenario, economic complexity indicators have been used to compare and analyze the state of relative advantage of the investigated provinces.
Findings
The findings of the study are presented under three scenarios. The results of the application of the shift share model in the first scenario show the disproportionate growth of the employees of different sectors of the provinces in the period under review. This issue is shown in negative structural changes. In other words, the combination of activities in the provinces has been unequal. Also, the effects of neighboring provinces on each other due to the dimension of distance and growth spillover have been neglected.
In the second scenario, the structural changes in the interaction between the provinces of the country have been investigated using Heckscher Ohlin's theory.
And finally, in the third scenario, economic complexity indicators have been used to compare and analyze the relative advantage of the investigated provinces. The factor content of trade in different sectors showed that with the export of goods and services, production factors have been exported and in sectors where advanced technology is needed, intermediate and capital goods have been imported. In the third scenario, The achievability of the production of a product is confirmed by the complexity sub-indices according to the access to production factors for the production and export of goods in a province. Hence, the difference between the provinces in terms of the density index shows that in dense areas, the provinces have exported products with relative advantage. So that the provinces have provided the required capabilities for production and export of various products. Therefore, the maximum capability is available for the development of the user's product group. On the other hand, although the provinces have specialized in several commodity groups, which has caused high density in the province, they have not been able to develop significantly the space around the goods. It is noteworthy that these options are set only based on the analysis of inter-departmental relations and in many cases, various internal and external factors have been ignored. Therefore, it can only draw a view of the communication between departments in the provinces of the country. Among the causes and factors of inequality and differences in the growth pattern of the provinces, we can refer to the macro policies of the country, the inherent characteristics of the regions, the macro strategies of the country regarding industrial location and geographical distribution of activities. Also, the country's trade strategy in the field of developing the exports of some goods can affect the regional growth pattern.
Discussion and Conclusion
Strategic sectors are not necessarily profitable economic sectors. But they can play the role of leadership and influence other sectors, and can spread the effects of growth and development to other economic sectors. Therefore, it can be said that employment policies should be adopted and applied based on the potential of the provinces. Then, investment should be made in the designated industries in the field of employment in each province. Then, increasing the level of interactions will bring many benefits to the provinces and ultimately to the country. Of course, the development of different provinces may not be compatible with each other in different sectors due to potential regional possibilities. In other words, although attention to macro policies is accepted as a principle in regional policy making. In fact, ignoring the possibilities, potential capacities, and relative advantages of each region and structural changes, leads to underdevelopment and inequality among regions. Hence, it is suggested that; Employment policies should be adopted and applied based on the relative advantage of the provinces at the country level to improve the favorable combination of industries and the lack of concentration of industries and the balanced distribution of employment. If there is a hidden comparative advantage, revealing this feature can be used as a reliable indicator in line with other macro indicators. It is worth noting that not paying attention to comparative advantage in the long run will be detrimental to Iran's growth. As well as considering the country's educated population and service users, it is necessary to put the development of productive services on the agenda of the country's planes.

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