Search published articles
Showing 3 results for Hekmati Farid
Dr Vahid Nikpey Pesyan, Dr Samad Hekmati Farid, Dr Yousef Mohammadzadeh, Mrs. Fateme Nezaie,
Volume 22, Issue 3 (Autumn 2022 2022)
Volume 22, Issue 3 (Autumn 2022 2022)
Abstract
Foreign direct investment is one of the most important sources of capital for countries. Knowledge and technology enter the host country through foreign direct investment and lead to increased competition, optimal resource allocation, increased labor skills, increased productivity, and ultimately increased employment and economic growth of the host country. On the other hand, structural economic vulnerability through the creation of economic and political instability, macroeconomic imbalances, exchange rate instability and inflation, leads to a lack of foreign direct investment in the host country. Therefore, if a country has stable macroeconomic policies, foreign investors will be attracted to that country and will be willing to invest in it. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of structural economic vulnerability on the attraction of foreign direct investment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries during the period 2005-2018, using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The results show that in accordance with the theoretical expectations of the research, the index of structural economic vulnerability has a negative and significant effect on attracting foreign direct investment. Iran experiences high structural economic vulnerability in recent years due to its dependence on oil revenues and numerous international sanctions. Among other research results, the variables of logarithm of GDP, political stability index and property rights index have positive and significant effects on the inflow of foreign direct investment.
Dr Samad Hekmati Farid, Mrs. Fatemeh Havasbeigi, Mr. Ali Moridian,
Volume 24, Issue 1 (spring 2024)
Volume 24, Issue 1 (spring 2024)
Abstract
Introduction:
As Stern et al (2019) argued, energy is considered an important determinant of sustainable economic growth. Energy sources meet the needs of various sectors such as industry, modern agriculture, commerce, transportation, etc. Therefore, electricity consumption (energy consumption) is vital for the growth of an economy.
Electricity is the backbone of today's industrial and consumer economies. Its share in the energy mix is increasing due to increasing per capita income, electrification of transportation, use of electronic devices, and demand for consumer and industrial products. However, developed countries are moving towards energy efficiency technology to offset the increasing demand for electricity and its effects (Bildirici et al., 2012). Discussions about the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and some macroeconomic variables have been high among researchers and policymakers in recent decades (Ehigiamusoe and Lean, 2019; Ehigiamusoe et al., 2020). The aim of our study is to examine the dynamics of the relationship between electricity consumption, ecological footprint and real GDP in Iran by dividing GDP into oil GDP and non-oil GDP. The logic behind this is that Iran's growth model is dependent on oil exports and public sector spending, with no diversification of oil revenues to ensure sustainable development. In fact, although Iran's successive development plans have emphasized the diversification and promotion of the non-oil private sector as a priority goal, today this goal can be achieved by reducing dependence on oil. Our aim is to provide a comprehensive review of energy consumption-environment-GDP dynamics with oil on one hand and energy-environment-GDP non-oil dynamics on the other hand. Therefore, we address the dichotomy between the oil and non-oil sectors and its consequences on the efficiency of energy policies and sustainable development.
Methodology:
This study uses the Vector Auto-Regressive model of time-varying parameters (TVP-VAR) to examine the inter-temporal dynamics between Iran's real GDP (oil, non-oil), electricity consumption and ecological footprint during 1967-2018. The results show that the TVP-VAR model is useful for examining the dynamics of the relationship between electricity consumption, real GDP and ecological footprint.
Results and Discussion:
The results show that the reaction functions of GDP with oil to positive shocks of environmental effect and electricity consumption are significantly different over time. Similar results exist for the impulse responses of the environmental effect to the positive shock of electricity consumption and GDP. We find the positive response of GDP to electricity consumption before 1978, negative between 1979 and 1991 and after 2003. The reactions of domestic gross production to environmental impact shocks between 1979 and 1986 are negative in the 8th and 12th period horizons and positive in other periods.
The shock response of energy consumption to GDP is positive in four periods during 1981 to 2006 and is negative in other years. It is negative in the 8-period horizon between 1976 and 2004, as well as in the 12-period horizon between 1971 and 1999 and positive in other years.
In relation to the response functions of the environmental impact of GDP and energy consumption in the horizon of 4 periods, the effect is positive, but it is positive in the horizon of 8 periods except for the years 1994-2000 and in the horizon of 12 periods except for the years 1979 to 1999 positive effects are observed.
Conclusion:
The results show that regimes with high and low volatility of real GDP (oil and non-oil), electricity consumption and environmental impact shocks have asymmetric effects (positive or negative) on these variables. In particular, the high fluctuations in electricity consumption during 1980s, 2000s, and 2010s likely affect real oil GDP and the environmental effect, negatively, But negatively, it leads to a decrease in real non-oil GDP growth. In the 1981s, 2001s, and 2011s, low volatility of electricity consumption had a negative impact on environmental impact, and low volatility of real oil and non-oil GDP had a positive impact on environmental impact.
In addition, real oil GDP fluctuations in the 1980s and 1990s both have positive effects on electricity consumption. The low real non-oil GDP fluctuations likely have positive effects on environmental effect, and real non-oil GDP fluctuations have positive effects on electricity consumption, but high real non-oil GDP fluctuations have negative effects on environmental status.
As Stern et al (2019) argued, energy is considered an important determinant of sustainable economic growth. Energy sources meet the needs of various sectors such as industry, modern agriculture, commerce, transportation, etc. Therefore, electricity consumption (energy consumption) is vital for the growth of an economy.
Electricity is the backbone of today's industrial and consumer economies. Its share in the energy mix is increasing due to increasing per capita income, electrification of transportation, use of electronic devices, and demand for consumer and industrial products. However, developed countries are moving towards energy efficiency technology to offset the increasing demand for electricity and its effects (Bildirici et al., 2012). Discussions about the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and some macroeconomic variables have been high among researchers and policymakers in recent decades (Ehigiamusoe and Lean, 2019; Ehigiamusoe et al., 2020). The aim of our study is to examine the dynamics of the relationship between electricity consumption, ecological footprint and real GDP in Iran by dividing GDP into oil GDP and non-oil GDP. The logic behind this is that Iran's growth model is dependent on oil exports and public sector spending, with no diversification of oil revenues to ensure sustainable development. In fact, although Iran's successive development plans have emphasized the diversification and promotion of the non-oil private sector as a priority goal, today this goal can be achieved by reducing dependence on oil. Our aim is to provide a comprehensive review of energy consumption-environment-GDP dynamics with oil on one hand and energy-environment-GDP non-oil dynamics on the other hand. Therefore, we address the dichotomy between the oil and non-oil sectors and its consequences on the efficiency of energy policies and sustainable development.
Methodology:
This study uses the Vector Auto-Regressive model of time-varying parameters (TVP-VAR) to examine the inter-temporal dynamics between Iran's real GDP (oil, non-oil), electricity consumption and ecological footprint during 1967-2018. The results show that the TVP-VAR model is useful for examining the dynamics of the relationship between electricity consumption, real GDP and ecological footprint.
Results and Discussion:
The results show that the reaction functions of GDP with oil to positive shocks of environmental effect and electricity consumption are significantly different over time. Similar results exist for the impulse responses of the environmental effect to the positive shock of electricity consumption and GDP. We find the positive response of GDP to electricity consumption before 1978, negative between 1979 and 1991 and after 2003. The reactions of domestic gross production to environmental impact shocks between 1979 and 1986 are negative in the 8th and 12th period horizons and positive in other periods.
The shock response of energy consumption to GDP is positive in four periods during 1981 to 2006 and is negative in other years. It is negative in the 8-period horizon between 1976 and 2004, as well as in the 12-period horizon between 1971 and 1999 and positive in other years.
In relation to the response functions of the environmental impact of GDP and energy consumption in the horizon of 4 periods, the effect is positive, but it is positive in the horizon of 8 periods except for the years 1994-2000 and in the horizon of 12 periods except for the years 1979 to 1999 positive effects are observed.
Conclusion:
The results show that regimes with high and low volatility of real GDP (oil and non-oil), electricity consumption and environmental impact shocks have asymmetric effects (positive or negative) on these variables. In particular, the high fluctuations in electricity consumption during 1980s, 2000s, and 2010s likely affect real oil GDP and the environmental effect, negatively, But negatively, it leads to a decrease in real non-oil GDP growth. In the 1981s, 2001s, and 2011s, low volatility of electricity consumption had a negative impact on environmental impact, and low volatility of real oil and non-oil GDP had a positive impact on environmental impact.
In addition, real oil GDP fluctuations in the 1980s and 1990s both have positive effects on electricity consumption. The low real non-oil GDP fluctuations likely have positive effects on environmental effect, and real non-oil GDP fluctuations have positive effects on electricity consumption, but high real non-oil GDP fluctuations have negative effects on environmental status.
Mrs Fahmideh Fattahi, Dr Samad Hekmati Farid, Dr Ali Rezazadeh,
Volume 24, Issue 3 (Autumn 2024)
Volume 24, Issue 3 (Autumn 2024)
Abstract
Introduction
Empirical analysis of export-led growth (ELG), growth-Led export (GLE), import-led growth (ILG) and growth-Led imports (GLI) hypotheses, are supported by a review of the trade literature and economic growth, which creates verifiable evidence using scientific methods for interpretation. To start with the first hypothesis, ELG is also expressed as the role of exports in economic growth in most empirical researches. The ELG hypothesis is described as a development strategy that focuses on foreign exports while simultaneously aiming to strengthen productive capacity that is consistent with economic growth. This hypothesis includes the promotion of exports and the acquisition of foreign exchange reserves by adopting certain policies supported by advanced technology can potentially benefit economic growth. Exporting is considered a tool for long-term economies of scale. Exports promote economic growth in the domestic market through the use of more technology and skilled labor. This process leads to improved efficiency and productivity in the economy.
In line with the above, it can be argued that there may be a non-linear causal relationship between output, export and import, and awareness of this issue and its extent is of great importance for planners and policy makers. Therefore, how to investigate the relationship between non-linear causality and mutual effects of output, export and import needs to be experimentally investigated in Iran. For this purpose, the present study examines the analysis of the non-linear causality relationship between output, export and import and confirms the hypotheses of import-output growth and export-output growth in Iran using quarterly data during the period 1988-2022. In this regard, the theoretical foundations related to the subject will be examined first, and then some related studies will be reviewed. In the following, the introduced model will be estimated and analyzed and the conclusion will be presented.
Methodology
In this study, the non-linear causality relationship between output, export, and import is investigated and the hypotheses of import-output growth and export-output growth in Iran is examined using a MS-VAR model. This paper employs a MS-VAR model to determine the asymmetric relationship between the variables. In this model, the parameters are time-dependent and the variables in the VAR model behave based on the types of regimes (states) and the transition probabilities between them. This model is used to explore the regime-dependent responses of the output to export and import under different regimes. In the MS model, regimes are expected to pursue a latent random process. One of the most prominent peculiarities of the MS model is its ability to specify the shock performances differently in diverse manners. They are a subset of time series models that are able to analyze the dynamic behavior of variables under different circumstances. In addition, these models are generally suitable for capturing unobserved asymmetries in time series.
Findings
Since the Iranian economy is export-dependent, it seems that in case of structural breaks, the linear correlation method of the model is insufficient to estimate the total unit effect. Therefore, the Markov regime switching vector autoregression model (MSVAR) is used to analyze the nonlinear causality relationship between economic growth, export and import and to confirm the hypotheses of export- output growth and import-output growth. Three main data sets including real GDP, real exports and real imports are considered in logarithmic and differential form. The results of the unit root test show that all variables are at a stationary level. According to the results obtained in table (2), lag 5, which has the lowest value of Akaike and Schwartz, is determined as the optimal lag order.
As can be seen in table (3), in the first stage, the value of the probability value of theχ 2
Discussion and Conclusion
In the present study, the non-linear causality relationship and the confirmation of export-output growth and import-output growth hypotheses in Iran have been investigated using quarterly data during the period from 1988 to 2022. For this purpose, the non-linear approach Markov regime switching vector autoregression model (MSVAR) was used to investigate the non-linear causality relationship.
The results show that the first regime (boom) is more stable and attractive than the second regime (bust). The results obtained from the causality relationship also indicate a two-way non-linear causality relationship and confirm the feedback hypotheses, i.e., export-output growth, import-output growth in Iran.
Empirical analysis of export-led growth (ELG), growth-Led export (GLE), import-led growth (ILG) and growth-Led imports (GLI) hypotheses, are supported by a review of the trade literature and economic growth, which creates verifiable evidence using scientific methods for interpretation. To start with the first hypothesis, ELG is also expressed as the role of exports in economic growth in most empirical researches. The ELG hypothesis is described as a development strategy that focuses on foreign exports while simultaneously aiming to strengthen productive capacity that is consistent with economic growth. This hypothesis includes the promotion of exports and the acquisition of foreign exchange reserves by adopting certain policies supported by advanced technology can potentially benefit economic growth. Exporting is considered a tool for long-term economies of scale. Exports promote economic growth in the domestic market through the use of more technology and skilled labor. This process leads to improved efficiency and productivity in the economy.
In line with the above, it can be argued that there may be a non-linear causal relationship between output, export and import, and awareness of this issue and its extent is of great importance for planners and policy makers. Therefore, how to investigate the relationship between non-linear causality and mutual effects of output, export and import needs to be experimentally investigated in Iran. For this purpose, the present study examines the analysis of the non-linear causality relationship between output, export and import and confirms the hypotheses of import-output growth and export-output growth in Iran using quarterly data during the period 1988-2022. In this regard, the theoretical foundations related to the subject will be examined first, and then some related studies will be reviewed. In the following, the introduced model will be estimated and analyzed and the conclusion will be presented.
Methodology
In this study, the non-linear causality relationship between output, export, and import is investigated and the hypotheses of import-output growth and export-output growth in Iran is examined using a MS-VAR model. This paper employs a MS-VAR model to determine the asymmetric relationship between the variables. In this model, the parameters are time-dependent and the variables in the VAR model behave based on the types of regimes (states) and the transition probabilities between them. This model is used to explore the regime-dependent responses of the output to export and import under different regimes. In the MS model, regimes are expected to pursue a latent random process. One of the most prominent peculiarities of the MS model is its ability to specify the shock performances differently in diverse manners. They are a subset of time series models that are able to analyze the dynamic behavior of variables under different circumstances. In addition, these models are generally suitable for capturing unobserved asymmetries in time series.
Findings
Since the Iranian economy is export-dependent, it seems that in case of structural breaks, the linear correlation method of the model is insufficient to estimate the total unit effect. Therefore, the Markov regime switching vector autoregression model (MSVAR) is used to analyze the nonlinear causality relationship between economic growth, export and import and to confirm the hypotheses of export- output growth and import-output growth. Three main data sets including real GDP, real exports and real imports are considered in logarithmic and differential form. The results of the unit root test show that all variables are at a stationary level. According to the results obtained in table (2), lag 5, which has the lowest value of Akaike and Schwartz, is determined as the optimal lag order.
As can be seen in table (3), in the first stage, the value of the probability value of the
Discussion and Conclusion
In the present study, the non-linear causality relationship and the confirmation of export-output growth and import-output growth hypotheses in Iran have been investigated using quarterly data during the period from 1988 to 2022. For this purpose, the non-linear approach Markov regime switching vector autoregression model (MSVAR) was used to investigate the non-linear causality relationship.
The results show that the first regime (boom) is more stable and attractive than the second regime (bust). The results obtained from the causality relationship also indicate a two-way non-linear causality relationship and confirm the feedback hypotheses, i.e., export-output growth, import-output growth in Iran.
| Page 1 from 1 |