Search published articles
Showing 7 results for Asgary
Volume 10, Issue 2 (Fall & Winter 2006)
Abstract
Abstract In current settlement planning settlements are either rural or urban. In reality human settlements are more diverse than this dichotomy and current definitions of rural and urban settlements are not comprehensive from political, administrative and scientific points of view and show lack of attention to various factors that shape human settlements and their status. In other words changing the status of a settlement based on public demand might not change the real status of a settlement. Application of models based on fuzzy logic as a relative approach in identification and classification of human settlements provides a better and more diverse framework for human settlement grouping based on various social, environmental and economic factors. Changing the status of a settlement from rural to urban without considering the role of such factors will not only increase the public expenditures, but also will increase public expectations and demand for inefficient services. Identification of those rural settlements with higher membership degree to urban settlements will help planners and policy makers to make better decisions when trying to accept or reject the status of a settlement. The main aim of this study is to assess the use fuzzy logic to identify rural settlements that are suitable for getting the city status. Rural settlement in Tehran province, Iran, has been selected as case study.
Volume 15, Issue 2 (5-2008)
Abstract
Disasters provide physical, social, political and environmental development windows of opportunities that can be used not only to reconstruct the impacted areas, but also to improve the socio-economic and physical conditions of the impacted population in the long run. It is argued, however, that there is a limited time frame of approximately four years for such opportunities to be utilized efficiently. Bam earthquake in December 2003 that killed more than 27000 and devastated the historical part of the city opened several unique opportunities for mitigation, socio-economic and physical development. This paper examines the roles that various stakeholders played in the Bam reconstruction and their contribution to the success and failure of utilizing disaster development opportunities. The results show that stakeholders’ collaboration and participation, knowledge and experience, long-term and holistic visions, division of labour and use of resources have had significant influence on the success and failure of using post-disaster opportunities.
Dr Naeim Shokri, Dr Abbas Assari Arani, Dr Ali Asgary, Dr Amirhosein Mozayani, Dr Nematollah Akbari,
Volume 22, Issue 3 (Autumn 2022 2022)
Volume 22, Issue 3 (Autumn 2022 2022)
Abstract
Today, the share of government aid from the public expenditures to support military and civil servants' pension funds has increased from about 11% in 2013 to 19% in 2021 and this trend has been increasing in recent years. This study aims to use DSGE models to simulate and apply corrective measures to enhance the financial misalignment of Iran's pension system. For this purpose, the model has been calibrated once for the PAYG-DB system that is currently used in Iran and then for the system based on financial provision based on the amount of partial savings to compare their welfare and distributional effects. The simulation results show that people reduce their savings by switching to a partial savings system, which increases consumption in all generations and capital accumulation in the whole society. In the second part of the article, impulse response functions were used to investigate the effects of emerging diseases and population aging variables on the financial misalignment of pension funds. The results show that the financial misalignment of pension funds increases following the positive shock in the above variables. Based on the results, parametric reforms such as a mechanism linking the retirement age to life expectancy and transition to a partial savings system can reduce financial misalignment and increase financial sustainability in Iran's pension system.
Dr. Naeim Shokri, Dr. Abbas Assari Arani, Dr Ali Asgary, Dr Amirhosein Mozayani, Dr Nematollah Akbari,
Volume 22, Issue 4 (winter 1401 2022)
Volume 22, Issue 4 (winter 1401 2022)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
The pension system is of special place in the employment regulations of the private and public sectors of all countries of the world. In addition, pension funds are known as one of the most sensitive and complex financial institutions in today's world, whose main goal is to preserve the livelihood and dignity of people in old age. Pension funds have been created to provide social rights for citizens, and a long-term horizon is one of the main features of such funds. By receiving insurance premiums from the insured and investing the resources gathered in the early years and the so-called youth period of the fund, pension funds provide pensions for retirees during their maturity. The process of maturity of pension funds occurs naturally and if it is accompanied by the aging of the country's population, it will intensify. According to the International Monetary Fund, pension expenditures in the Social Security Organization and the civil serpents' Pension Fund will increase from 5.3% in 2015 to 11% in 2040 and 19.6% of GDP in 2080 and in the future, a large part of the country's budget should be spent on paying pensions.
Methodology
This study seeks to simulate and apply corrective policies to improve the financial misalignment in the Iranian pension system using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model based on the overlapping generations (OLG) model. In this regard, impulse response functions were used to examine the effects of the proposed parametric corrections. The DSGE models are stochastic, microeconomic-founded, provide the possibility of dynamic evaluation of parametric changes as well as random changes of exogenous variables of the system, and give inter-temporal optimization of the behavior of economic agents. In addition, the mechanism of intergenerational transfer in the pension funds, can be well evaluated and studied by these models, so it seems to be a suitable tool for studying the effects of demographic parametric changes on the financial balance of pension funds.
Findings
The results show that positive shocks to the variables of years of service, birth rate, and average years of insurance, the financial misalignment of pension funds decreases. According to the results, linking the retirement age with life expectancy and increasing the years of premium payment can reduce financial misalignment and increase financial stability in the Iranian pension system.
Discussion and Conclusion
The government's decision to implement reforms in Iran's pension system is essential, taking into account social considerations and the step-by-step nature of these reforms. However, according to our findings, the following policies should be presented to improve the financial imbalance of Iran's pension system:
1. The results of the positive shock analysis to the years of service variable showed that the later retirement of people reduces economic dissatisfaction, and considering the past and projected increase in life expectancy in Iran, increasing the retirement age is justified and logical. According to global experience, the average retirement age should be increased from 60 to 63 years for men and from 55 to 58 years for women (one year for every two years). Also, in the future, it is suggested that the average retirement age be linked to the growth of life expectancy.
2. The analysis results of the positive shock to the birth rate variable showed that the young population reduces the financial imbalance. Therefore, it is necessary to implement policies to encourage birth in the coming years, because the population aging phenomenon will have destructive effects on the stability of the pension system.
3. A positive shock to the average variable of years of insurance has positive effects on reducing the financial imbalance of pension funds. In this regard, it is suggested to change the calculation of pensions in all pension funds, including state, military, and social security organizations, based on the average salary of the last three to five years of employment, which it is currently based on the average of the previous two years.
Mr Mojtaba Panahi, Dr Rouhollah Shahnazi, Dr Karim Eslamloueyan, Dr Ali Asgary,
Volume 24, Issue 2 (summer 2024)
Volume 24, Issue 2 (summer 2024)
Abstract
Introduction:
In recent years, policy makers have increasingly recognized the significance of vulnerability to climate change. This urgent situation necessitates the implementation of immediate, extensive, and comprehensive measures. Extensive scientific consensus has demonstrated that human activities have contributed to significant climate warming trends. However, despite this evidence, there are individuals who remain skeptical and deny the existence of climate change. Consequently, addressing this skepticism and effectively tackling the climate crisis require fundamental changes in behavior and attitudes across various levels and domains of human life. Therefore, the primary objective of this article is to examine the behavioral factors involved in climate policy making, with a particular emphasis on the role of cognitive biases.
Methodology:
This research employed a semi-experimental method, drawing on the principles of behavioral economics. The study utilized a design that included both an experimental group and a control group, with pre-test and post-test assessments. The experimental group was exposed to different information frames, which were developed based on the principles of behavioral economics, while the control group did not receive any framing intervention.
Data for this study was collected through fieldwork and a questionnaire. The statistical population consisted of individuals who had access to WhatsApp, Telegram, and Instagram platforms during the experiment, which took place in the spring of 2023. The target sample size for this research was determined to be 600 participants, divided into six groups of 100 individuals each. The sample size was determined using Cochran's formula for limited populations. Additionally, a random sampling method was employed in this research.
Results and Discussion:
This article aims to establish a connection between climate policy and behavioral sciences by introducing the practical and cost-effective approach of nudge theory. Drawing on insights from behavioral economics, specifically through behavioral interventions that leverage biases such as loss aversion, hyperbolic discounting, and the framing effect, this study investigates how these interventions can encourage individuals to make choices that align with addressing climate change and environmental concerns. Moreover, existing research has demonstrated that integrating the framing effect with other cognitive biases can be an effective and low-cost policy tool for studying environmental behavior.
Using a semi-experimental methodology, this article examines the impact of information formatting, including profit and loss framing, hyperbolic discounting bias, as well as extensive and continuous information presentation, on individuals' general attitudes and understanding of climate change. The hypotheses of this research were derived from the literature of behavioral economics, cognitive science, and previous studies in the field of environmental issues. The findings of this research indicate that individuals exhibit a greater sensitivity to loss framing, supporting hypothesis H1. In other words, people are more responsive to potential losses than gains when making decisions. Additionally, the results demonstrate that individuals display a significantly higher willingness to participate when presented with present-loss and present-profit framing compared to future-loss and future-profit framing, aligning with hypothesis H2. This preference for the present over the future, known as present bias and hyperbolic discounting bias, has been extensively examined and validated in behavioral economics literature. Furthermore, the findings show that framing losses and emphasizing the present context contribute to a heightened perception of risk, consequently increasing individuals' willingness to take preventive measures under a loss framework.
Additionally, the provision of information in a broad and continuous manner also yielded a significant effect in influencing individuals' behavior, corroborating hypothesis H3.
Conclusion:
This study offers novel insights for policymaking and governance regarding public participation in mitigating the impacts of climate change. The findings indicate that the utilization of loss-present framing and continuous framing proves more effective in increasing the willingness of the general public to engage in climate change reduction efforts. Based on the research conducted in this article, climate change mitigation policies can be effectively promoted in public settings through the implementation of nudges that employ loss-present framing when delivering information.
Furthermore, the current reliance on economic incentives in most policies to encourage public participation is a noteworthy issue. However, this study proposes the use of non-economic incentives and demonstrates the positive impact of nudges on individuals' willingness to engage in projects aimed at reducing the effects of climate change
In recent years, policy makers have increasingly recognized the significance of vulnerability to climate change. This urgent situation necessitates the implementation of immediate, extensive, and comprehensive measures. Extensive scientific consensus has demonstrated that human activities have contributed to significant climate warming trends. However, despite this evidence, there are individuals who remain skeptical and deny the existence of climate change. Consequently, addressing this skepticism and effectively tackling the climate crisis require fundamental changes in behavior and attitudes across various levels and domains of human life. Therefore, the primary objective of this article is to examine the behavioral factors involved in climate policy making, with a particular emphasis on the role of cognitive biases.
Methodology:
This research employed a semi-experimental method, drawing on the principles of behavioral economics. The study utilized a design that included both an experimental group and a control group, with pre-test and post-test assessments. The experimental group was exposed to different information frames, which were developed based on the principles of behavioral economics, while the control group did not receive any framing intervention.
Data for this study was collected through fieldwork and a questionnaire. The statistical population consisted of individuals who had access to WhatsApp, Telegram, and Instagram platforms during the experiment, which took place in the spring of 2023. The target sample size for this research was determined to be 600 participants, divided into six groups of 100 individuals each. The sample size was determined using Cochran's formula for limited populations. Additionally, a random sampling method was employed in this research.
Results and Discussion:
This article aims to establish a connection between climate policy and behavioral sciences by introducing the practical and cost-effective approach of nudge theory. Drawing on insights from behavioral economics, specifically through behavioral interventions that leverage biases such as loss aversion, hyperbolic discounting, and the framing effect, this study investigates how these interventions can encourage individuals to make choices that align with addressing climate change and environmental concerns. Moreover, existing research has demonstrated that integrating the framing effect with other cognitive biases can be an effective and low-cost policy tool for studying environmental behavior.
Using a semi-experimental methodology, this article examines the impact of information formatting, including profit and loss framing, hyperbolic discounting bias, as well as extensive and continuous information presentation, on individuals' general attitudes and understanding of climate change. The hypotheses of this research were derived from the literature of behavioral economics, cognitive science, and previous studies in the field of environmental issues. The findings of this research indicate that individuals exhibit a greater sensitivity to loss framing, supporting hypothesis H1. In other words, people are more responsive to potential losses than gains when making decisions. Additionally, the results demonstrate that individuals display a significantly higher willingness to participate when presented with present-loss and present-profit framing compared to future-loss and future-profit framing, aligning with hypothesis H2. This preference for the present over the future, known as present bias and hyperbolic discounting bias, has been extensively examined and validated in behavioral economics literature. Furthermore, the findings show that framing losses and emphasizing the present context contribute to a heightened perception of risk, consequently increasing individuals' willingness to take preventive measures under a loss framework.
Additionally, the provision of information in a broad and continuous manner also yielded a significant effect in influencing individuals' behavior, corroborating hypothesis H3.
Conclusion:
This study offers novel insights for policymaking and governance regarding public participation in mitigating the impacts of climate change. The findings indicate that the utilization of loss-present framing and continuous framing proves more effective in increasing the willingness of the general public to engage in climate change reduction efforts. Based on the research conducted in this article, climate change mitigation policies can be effectively promoted in public settings through the implementation of nudges that employ loss-present framing when delivering information.
Furthermore, the current reliance on economic incentives in most policies to encourage public participation is a noteworthy issue. However, this study proposes the use of non-economic incentives and demonstrates the positive impact of nudges on individuals' willingness to engage in projects aimed at reducing the effects of climate change
Mrs Sara Parang, Dr Zahra Dehghan Shabani, Dr Ebrahim Hadian, Dr Ali Asgary,
Volume 24, Issue 4 (Winter 2024)
Volume 24, Issue 4 (Winter 2024)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
The housing sector is one of the important economic sectors that, in addition to consumer demand, also faces demand from speculators due to its high capital return rate and low risk level. Speculators, motivated by the desire to profit from future price increases, refrain from offering their houses for sale, resulting in a housing vacancy. The presence of vacant houses reduces the housing supply and can lead to the formation of a housing price bubble. Imposing taxes on vacant houses is one of the government's tools to address this issue. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of taxes on vacant houses on the housing price bubble in the city of Shiraz.
Methodology
In this research, an agent-based model is used, considering four active agents in the housing market: sellers, buyers (including sellers and buyers with personal consumption and speculative motivations), developer, and real estate agencies, to investigate the dynamic processes of the housing market. To forecast the housing prices in Shiraz over an eight-year period, statistics and information by the beginning of 2022 have been incorporated into the model, and three different percentages of speculative buyers, including 30%, 50%, and 70% of the total buyers, along with different tax rates of 10%, 15%, 20%, and 25% have been considered.
Findings
The results of the research show that by applying a tax rate of 10%, if 70% of buyers are speculators, the highest growth rate of the housing price bubble was observed; that the decreasing growth rate was equal to 18%, that is, with application of tax on empty houses, the housing price bubble of Shiraz city in 2022 to the end of 2031 decreased by almost 19%, and after that the application of the tax rate of 15% in these conditions was approximately 17% which reduced the housing price bubble. But when the number of regular buyers is more than speculative buyers (30% of buyers are speculative), the application of different tax rates on vacant houses shows the least reduction effect on the housing price bubble. Therefore, when 70% of the buyers in the market are present in the market with the motive of personal consumption, the number of transactions is low. Since ordinary buyers will re-enter the market with a slight probability, and the majority of transactions are made by the 30% of buyers who are speculative, so applying the tax on vacant houses in the first year will cause a number of speculater to leave the market and the number of transactions will be less than before the tax was applied. In fact, mobilisation of the current stock of housing due to the tax may not have been high enough to affect prices which is consistent with Sego (2019).
Furthermore, the results indicate that increasing the tax rate on vacant houses does not necessarily lead to a further reduction of housing price bubble. When more than half of the housing market is in the hands of speculators, their power in transactions would be greater, and the increase in tax rate in the form of an increase in price will intensify the housing price bubble which could mean more transactions between traders. In fact, traders add tax to the price of the property, and increasing tax rates, in return worsens the bubble. So, here selecting the optimal tax rate becomes critically important. When less than half of the housing market is in the hands of speculators, the power of speculators will decrease as a result, which leads to further weakening of the price bubble. However, to a lesser extent when more than half of the market is in the hands of speculators, the price bubble will decrease.
Discussion and Conclusion
The research results indicate that the implementation of different tax rates, despite varying numbers of speculators, can lead to a reduction in the housing price bubble in the city of Shiraz, although the effectiveness may vary under different conditions. Moreover, it can create an appropriate income for the government, which can reduce the class gap by allocating and optimally directing the resulting resources towards the supply of housing for low-income groups. But the government should be careful in choosing the tax rate. It is necessary to set the tax rate on empty houses in such a way that renting the house or offering it in the market is more economical than keeping it empty by traders. In addition to the tax rate, choosing the tax base is also crucial. As mentioned in the text of the research, some countries consider the value of the property as the tax base instead of the rental income, or a fixed annual tax is collected
The housing sector is one of the important economic sectors that, in addition to consumer demand, also faces demand from speculators due to its high capital return rate and low risk level. Speculators, motivated by the desire to profit from future price increases, refrain from offering their houses for sale, resulting in a housing vacancy. The presence of vacant houses reduces the housing supply and can lead to the formation of a housing price bubble. Imposing taxes on vacant houses is one of the government's tools to address this issue. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of taxes on vacant houses on the housing price bubble in the city of Shiraz.
Methodology
In this research, an agent-based model is used, considering four active agents in the housing market: sellers, buyers (including sellers and buyers with personal consumption and speculative motivations), developer, and real estate agencies, to investigate the dynamic processes of the housing market. To forecast the housing prices in Shiraz over an eight-year period, statistics and information by the beginning of 2022 have been incorporated into the model, and three different percentages of speculative buyers, including 30%, 50%, and 70% of the total buyers, along with different tax rates of 10%, 15%, 20%, and 25% have been considered.
Findings
The results of the research show that by applying a tax rate of 10%, if 70% of buyers are speculators, the highest growth rate of the housing price bubble was observed; that the decreasing growth rate was equal to 18%, that is, with application of tax on empty houses, the housing price bubble of Shiraz city in 2022 to the end of 2031 decreased by almost 19%, and after that the application of the tax rate of 15% in these conditions was approximately 17% which reduced the housing price bubble. But when the number of regular buyers is more than speculative buyers (30% of buyers are speculative), the application of different tax rates on vacant houses shows the least reduction effect on the housing price bubble. Therefore, when 70% of the buyers in the market are present in the market with the motive of personal consumption, the number of transactions is low. Since ordinary buyers will re-enter the market with a slight probability, and the majority of transactions are made by the 30% of buyers who are speculative, so applying the tax on vacant houses in the first year will cause a number of speculater to leave the market and the number of transactions will be less than before the tax was applied. In fact, mobilisation of the current stock of housing due to the tax may not have been high enough to affect prices which is consistent with Sego (2019).
Furthermore, the results indicate that increasing the tax rate on vacant houses does not necessarily lead to a further reduction of housing price bubble. When more than half of the housing market is in the hands of speculators, their power in transactions would be greater, and the increase in tax rate in the form of an increase in price will intensify the housing price bubble which could mean more transactions between traders. In fact, traders add tax to the price of the property, and increasing tax rates, in return worsens the bubble. So, here selecting the optimal tax rate becomes critically important. When less than half of the housing market is in the hands of speculators, the power of speculators will decrease as a result, which leads to further weakening of the price bubble. However, to a lesser extent when more than half of the market is in the hands of speculators, the price bubble will decrease.
Discussion and Conclusion
The research results indicate that the implementation of different tax rates, despite varying numbers of speculators, can lead to a reduction in the housing price bubble in the city of Shiraz, although the effectiveness may vary under different conditions. Moreover, it can create an appropriate income for the government, which can reduce the class gap by allocating and optimally directing the resulting resources towards the supply of housing for low-income groups. But the government should be careful in choosing the tax rate. It is necessary to set the tax rate on empty houses in such a way that renting the house or offering it in the market is more economical than keeping it empty by traders. In addition to the tax rate, choosing the tax base is also crucial. As mentioned in the text of the research, some countries consider the value of the property as the tax base instead of the rental income, or a fixed annual tax is collected
Volume 30, Issue 2 (Summer 2023)
Abstract
Financial imbalances and disparity between resources and expenditures in Iranian pension funds have made the need for reforms inevitable. Today, the share of government aid from public expenditures to two Civil and Military pension funds has increased from about 11 percent in 2013 to about 19 percent in 2021, and this trend has been increasing in recent years. However, despite the perception of the crisis in the pension system of various actors, these reforms have not been implemented. In this regard, the present study seeks pathology and finds a solution to solve the crisis of the Iranian pension system during 2013-2021. Due to the existence of different actors and stakeholders, one of the non-quantitative methods of game theory models, called the graph model, was used to resolve the conflicts. This model is an important tool for modeling and analyzing complex problems, expresses the most likely consequences of various problems in the world, and finally provide guidelines for its improvement. The modeling results of the retirement crisis show that the fourth mode of the model, i.e. the state of reform, is more likely to occur. Therefore, the current situation is not a stable one for all players, and they are motivated to leave. According to the results, limiting government support, changing the pension system, and carrying out structural and parametric reforms will improve the current situation.
| Page 1 from 1 |