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Mrs Saeideh Shahabi Rabori, Dr Sadegh Khalilian, Dr Seyed Habibollah Mosavi, Dr Hamed Najafi Alamdarlo,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (12-2024)
Volume 0, Issue 0 (12-2024)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
Today, the environment is considered as one of the most important pillars of sustainable development, and the development of other economic and social sectors depends on its sustainability and proper functioning. Environmental pollution has become one of the main challenges of countries. Environmental health is currently one of the most critical concerns of people and officials round the world. Almost all managers and decision makers believe that this national wealth should be protected not only for the current generation but also for future generations, since the pollutants caused by industries are highly costly and detrimental to health.
Active industries are one of the main sources of environmental pollution. One of the necessary conditions for economic progress and the introduction of extensive structural changes in economic and technological fields is industrialization and industrial development. In the production process, using production inputs whose main source is the environment, in addition to desirable outputs such as consumer goods, undesirable outputs such as environmental pollutants are also produced. If the number of outputs is not controlled and disproportionate, the losses from undesirable outputs will be greater than the benefits of desirable products in such a way that damages to the environment would be irreparable and sustainable development less likely to be achieved.
One of the most important concerns related to industrialization is the effects and environmental consequences of industrial activities. Therefore, achieving the necessary solutions to control such consequences is vitally important. Minerals are essential for human survival, but their extraction and processing are not environmentally friendly practices which contribute to problems such as soil erosion, air and water pollution. On the other hand, mineral sector is one of the largest energy consumers which has active contribution to air pollution and global warming. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the economic effects of Gol Gohar mine in Sirjan. For this purpose, it is intended to determine the type and amount of pollutants released from this complex, and also to determine the amount of the green tax of the complex as a solution to reduce pollution and examine the social welfare resulting from reducing pollution.
Methodology
In this study, the economic effects of environmental pollutants of Gol Gohar Iron Mine in Sirjan (Southeastern Iran), is investigated using the input distance function model from 2001 to 2022. Through calculating the shadow price of pollutants, a criterion for determining the green tax is determined, and then the amount of social cost resulting from the emission of pollutants is calculated.
The shadow price of the undesirable output is the cost that the producer must bear if they plan to reduce the production of the undesirable output. In fact, it can be interpreted as the marginal cost of reducing pollution for each producer. Therefore, the shadow price of the desirable output is considered positive and equal to the market price of that output, but the shadow price of the undesirable output must be estimated to be less than zero.
Findings
The products of Gol Gohar Iron Ore Complex in Sirjan, include granulated iron ore, iron ore concentrate and pelletized in the production process. The most greenhouse gases and air pollutants are related to carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur oxides (Sox), nitrogen oxides (Nox) and particulate matter (SPM). According to the obtained results, the average shadow price for air pollutants in Gol Gohar complex for CO2, Sox Nox, and SPM was calculated as 11.15, 3,074.5, 5,529.62, and 1,875.62 rials per kilogram respectively. Moreover, the average total social costs resulting from the production of Gol Gohar Sirjan Complex was calculated as 92,710 billion Rials according to the amount of pollution produced over the period.
Discussion and Conclusion
The estimation of environmental costs is actually an introduction to providing solutions for internalizing and reducing environmental costs, using the input distance function model and the shadow price of environmental pollutants in the industrial and mineral complex of Gol Gohar, Sirjan. The title of the largest producer of iron ore in the country was calculated, and the social cost resulting from the emission of pollutants was also evaluated. Finally, in this study, solutions and mechanisms for reducing environmental costs have been proposed.
Considering that the ability to absorb pollutants by the environment is limited, the shadow price of pollutants, which represents their real social cost, should be taken into consideration. The damages should also be determined based on the shadow price of the pollutants. In other words, the amounts of pollutant emission should be calculated and while taking into account the allowed limit of pollutant emission and shadow prices, based on a legal plan, the environmental costs should be reimbursed. Taking such measures would surely require more studies and capable executive management system
Dr Mehdi Shabanzadeh Khoshrody, Dr Omid Gilanpour, Dr Ebrahim Javdan, Dr Mohsen Rafaati,
Volume 22, Issue 3 (9-2022)
Volume 22, Issue 3 (9-2022)
Abstract
The currency fluctuations intensified in Iran from the end of 2017. In order to manage the foreign exchange market, from the beginning of 2018, the government economic staff allocated preferential currency at the rate of 42000 Rials per US dollar to basic goods’ imports. The main purpose of this policy was to prevent the spread of currency inflammation to the market of basic goods needed by the people and to benefit the lower income deciles of society. However, today, three years after the implementation of this plan, many experts believe that the implementation of the preferred currency subsidy policy has resulted in high costs and due to failure to control rising prices, has not been able to ensure the stability of target food consumption among households. On the contrary, proponents of this policy believe that the effect of the preferred currency subsidies policy on controlling the growth of product prices in the final market and ultimately household consumption has been significant. Therefore, the question arises here is that whether the subsidy paid in the form of preferred currency policy reaches the final consumer and has a significant effect on his level of consumption? With this approach, the present study evaluates the effect of preferred currency subsidies policy on food consumption in urban areas of Iran. In order to achieve this goal, first, the theoretical model of the present study is explained by applying theoretical foundations in various studies. It is worth mentioning that the information required for the study is collected during the period 2005-2020 and analyzed in the form of PANEL ARDL model. The results show that although the preferred currency subsidies policy has a positive and significant effect on household consumption, but this effect is not remarkable. At the same time, according to the results, the price index of food groups and exchange rate fluctuations have negative effects on food consumption in the short and long term and in contrast, increasing the income of urban households has a positive and significant effect on food consumption in the short and long term. Finally, the results of the error correction model (ECM) show that due to the low speed of adjustment, the effects of currency shocks have high durability in the Iranian economy.
Mrs. Shiva Soltani, Dr Seyed Habibollah Mosavi, Dr Sadegh Khalilian, Dr Hamed Najafi Alamdarlo,
Volume 23, Issue 2 (5-2023)
Volume 23, Issue 2 (5-2023)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
The health and food security of a country depends on the production of the agricultural sector, and any disturbance in the production process of this sector can threaten the food security of households. Among the challenges affecting the agricultural sector, climate change is of double importance due to its direct impact on crop yield and water resources. The occurrence of climate change through changes in the supply and price of crops, overshadows the producer surplus in this sector. This is despite the fact that, according to previous studies, climate change in the coming decades will be a visible phenomenon in most plains of Iran, and this issue will have negative consequences on water resources and, as a result, on the production of crops and food security. Therefore, considering the importance of food supply in the process of economic development, it is necessary to investigate the impact of food security on climate change and the welfare effects of this phenomenon in Iran. According to this approach, in the present study, the potential effects of different climatic scenarios on the cultivation pattern of the Hamadan-Bahar plain, considering 2018 as the base year, were investigated, and the impact of water resources, production, income and food security in the agricultural sector of this plain was evaluated.
Methodology
In this study, the dynamic positive mathematical programming(PMP) approach in endogenous price conditions was used. The experimental model, consisting of 18 crops and two types of irrigation technologies, was developed based on the information of 2018 as the base year and in a 20-year planning horizon. This model's objective function is to maximize the present value of net farm income. Resource constraints used in the experimental model include water, land, capital, labor, and chemical fertilizers, with chemical fertilizer restrictions repeated for each nitrogen, phosphate, and potash fertilizers. Finally, the GAMS software and CONOPT3 algorithm were used for data analysis. In the meteorological dimension of the model, the climatic measurement of rainfall was studied in the form of SSP climatic scenarios. Accordingly, the rate of evapotranspiration of crops and, consequently, the production and yield of crops in the region due to climate change were estimated and integrated into the PMP model. Each of these relationships is responsible for providing some of the information needed in the experimental research model. Finally, the dynamic endogenous price optimization framework was estimated as a unit pattern. After evaluating the changes in the income of farmer households and crop pattern in the face of climate change, the food security index was calculated in the different climate scenarios. In the final stage of the research, management strategies were evaluated in the agricultural sector of the Hamadan-Bahar plain to reduce the negative effects of climate change on the food security.
Results and Discussion
The results showed that the annual cumulative rainfall values of the Hamadan-Bahar plain in the next 20-year period would have a decreasing trend in all climate scenarios, so that in the SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios, the average rainfall would be 303, 272 and 252 mm, respectively. Meanwhile, the amount of precipitation in the base year of this research (2018) is reported as 323 mm. Also, the results showed that with the considering an optimistic approach in predicting climate changes (SSP2 scenario), along with the increase of extraction from underground water sources by 13%, the increase in average price of agricultural products by 34% and the decrease in production by 5% in the 20-year planning period compared to the base year, the present value of net producer income and the food security index in the agricultural sector of the region would decrease by 17 and 11 percent, respectively. However, the adoption of management strategies such as the optimal deficit irrigation would improve the food security of the plain by 11 to 15 percent.
Conclusion
The change in the climate conditions in the coming years would have negative effects on the food security conditions in the agricultural sector of the Hamadan-Bahar plain. In this situation, considering that it is impossible to avoid different forms of climate scenarios, it is necessary to apply strategies to adapt to the mentioned phenomenon. Based on this, the optimal deficit irrigation, as a management strategy, was investigated, and the results confirm the positive effect of this strategy in improving the food security index in the region. Therefore, according to the results, management strategies with emphasis on deficit irrigation in the agricultural sector of Hamadan-Bahar plain should be put on the agenda.
Keywords: Rainfall, Production, Groundwater Resources, Dynamic Pattern, Food Insecurity
JEL Classification: C02, C22, C33, C46, C61, Q25, Q54
The health and food security of a country depends on the production of the agricultural sector, and any disturbance in the production process of this sector can threaten the food security of households. Among the challenges affecting the agricultural sector, climate change is of double importance due to its direct impact on crop yield and water resources. The occurrence of climate change through changes in the supply and price of crops, overshadows the producer surplus in this sector. This is despite the fact that, according to previous studies, climate change in the coming decades will be a visible phenomenon in most plains of Iran, and this issue will have negative consequences on water resources and, as a result, on the production of crops and food security. Therefore, considering the importance of food supply in the process of economic development, it is necessary to investigate the impact of food security on climate change and the welfare effects of this phenomenon in Iran. According to this approach, in the present study, the potential effects of different climatic scenarios on the cultivation pattern of the Hamadan-Bahar plain, considering 2018 as the base year, were investigated, and the impact of water resources, production, income and food security in the agricultural sector of this plain was evaluated.
Methodology
In this study, the dynamic positive mathematical programming(PMP) approach in endogenous price conditions was used. The experimental model, consisting of 18 crops and two types of irrigation technologies, was developed based on the information of 2018 as the base year and in a 20-year planning horizon. This model's objective function is to maximize the present value of net farm income. Resource constraints used in the experimental model include water, land, capital, labor, and chemical fertilizers, with chemical fertilizer restrictions repeated for each nitrogen, phosphate, and potash fertilizers. Finally, the GAMS software and CONOPT3 algorithm were used for data analysis. In the meteorological dimension of the model, the climatic measurement of rainfall was studied in the form of SSP climatic scenarios. Accordingly, the rate of evapotranspiration of crops and, consequently, the production and yield of crops in the region due to climate change were estimated and integrated into the PMP model. Each of these relationships is responsible for providing some of the information needed in the experimental research model. Finally, the dynamic endogenous price optimization framework was estimated as a unit pattern. After evaluating the changes in the income of farmer households and crop pattern in the face of climate change, the food security index was calculated in the different climate scenarios. In the final stage of the research, management strategies were evaluated in the agricultural sector of the Hamadan-Bahar plain to reduce the negative effects of climate change on the food security.
Results and Discussion
The results showed that the annual cumulative rainfall values of the Hamadan-Bahar plain in the next 20-year period would have a decreasing trend in all climate scenarios, so that in the SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios, the average rainfall would be 303, 272 and 252 mm, respectively. Meanwhile, the amount of precipitation in the base year of this research (2018) is reported as 323 mm. Also, the results showed that with the considering an optimistic approach in predicting climate changes (SSP2 scenario), along with the increase of extraction from underground water sources by 13%, the increase in average price of agricultural products by 34% and the decrease in production by 5% in the 20-year planning period compared to the base year, the present value of net producer income and the food security index in the agricultural sector of the region would decrease by 17 and 11 percent, respectively. However, the adoption of management strategies such as the optimal deficit irrigation would improve the food security of the plain by 11 to 15 percent.
Conclusion
The change in the climate conditions in the coming years would have negative effects on the food security conditions in the agricultural sector of the Hamadan-Bahar plain. In this situation, considering that it is impossible to avoid different forms of climate scenarios, it is necessary to apply strategies to adapt to the mentioned phenomenon. Based on this, the optimal deficit irrigation, as a management strategy, was investigated, and the results confirm the positive effect of this strategy in improving the food security index in the region. Therefore, according to the results, management strategies with emphasis on deficit irrigation in the agricultural sector of Hamadan-Bahar plain should be put on the agenda.
Keywords: Rainfall, Production, Groundwater Resources, Dynamic Pattern, Food Insecurity
JEL Classification: C02, C22, C33, C46, C61, Q25, Q54
Dr Fatemeh Taei, Dr Sadegh Khalilian,
Volume 25, Issue 1 (3-2025)
Volume 25, Issue 1 (3-2025)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
The purpose of this study is to investigate the multiple effects of energy substitution from technology development on the growth rate of economic-environmental indicators in Iran's agricultural sector using the translog cost function. While one of the main goals of improving energy efficiency with the implementation of the Energy Subsidy Targeting Law in Iran was to deal with the rapid growth of fossil fuels, but looking at the energy consumption situation in the agricultural sector, it is clear that not only with the implementation of this plan, the consumption of fossil fuels has not decreased, but also increased in coparison to the time span before the plan. The increase in the annual growth rate of energy consumption has created many environmental challenges. In this way, the amount of carbon dioxide emissions, which is the most important greenhouse gas in Iran's agricultural sector, has reached from 13,682 tons to 17,639 tons in 2019. In other words, the average increase in the annual growth of carbon dioxide emissions in agricultural sector during this period was equal to 28.92%. The implementation of some energy saving policies may have the opposite effect on energy consumption and the environment as well.
Methodology
Translog cost function has been used to investigate the multiple effects of energy substitution from technology development on the growth rate of economic-environmental indicators in Iran's agricultural sector. The data used for the period 1988 to 2020 were collected from Central Bank, Iran Statistics Center, Ministry of Energy and World Food Organization.
Results and Discussion
The results has revealed that if the level of technology development increases, the substitution between capital and energy decreases and on the contrary, the substitution between labor and energy increases. The results have also shown that by reducing the amount of substitution between capital and energy, its negative effects on the economy and the quality of the environment are significant, and in contrast to the increase in the amount of substitution between labor and energy, it has a positive effect on the economy and the quality of environment. The higher level of technology development has increased the level of energy substitution.
Conclusion
The results of this research have shown that with an increase in the level of technology development on changes in energy consumption, the substitution between production factors in agricultural sector changes, which means that a 25% increase in technology development leads to an increase in energy consumption by 0.567%. In comparison, the changes in energy consumption are aligned with the development level of technology, which means that a small increase in the level of technology development leads to the rebound effects of energy. These energy feedback effects lead to an increase in substitution between capital and energy by 0.068% and a decrease in substitution between labor and energy by 0.412% compared to the initial level of technology development, but with a further increase in the level of technology development, the effect of energy feedback effects on energy substitution decreases. The results have also shown that with an increase in the level of technology development in the targeting period of energy subsidy, the amount of energy return effects increases, but at a higher level of technology development, these energy return effects decrease in the agricultural sector. Therefore, it is concluded that in the early stages of technology development, which is at a lower level, its effects on energy return are significant, but with the development of technology at a higher level, its value has gradually decreased and does not remain stable. The results have also revealed that with an increase in the level of technology development, the degree of substitution between capital and energy decreases and on the other hand, the degree of substitution between labor and energy increases, and these effects are greater at a higher level of technology development. Therefore, increasing the level of technology leads to a decrease in investment and an increase in employment in the agricultural sector at the same time. In addition, it was found that by reducing the substitution between capital and energy, the negative effects on economic indicators and environmental quality are significant. The reason that the development of the level of technology in Iran's agricultural sector has had significant negative economic effects can be seen in the exhaustion of the technology used in the production of this sector. The application of these technologies, will lead to a higher cost of production which in turn result into a lower rates of profitability in the sector. Therefore, the incentive for production, investment and job creation in this sector decreases in the long term.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the multiple effects of energy substitution from technology development on the growth rate of economic-environmental indicators in Iran's agricultural sector using the translog cost function. While one of the main goals of improving energy efficiency with the implementation of the Energy Subsidy Targeting Law in Iran was to deal with the rapid growth of fossil fuels, but looking at the energy consumption situation in the agricultural sector, it is clear that not only with the implementation of this plan, the consumption of fossil fuels has not decreased, but also increased in coparison to the time span before the plan. The increase in the annual growth rate of energy consumption has created many environmental challenges. In this way, the amount of carbon dioxide emissions, which is the most important greenhouse gas in Iran's agricultural sector, has reached from 13,682 tons to 17,639 tons in 2019. In other words, the average increase in the annual growth of carbon dioxide emissions in agricultural sector during this period was equal to 28.92%. The implementation of some energy saving policies may have the opposite effect on energy consumption and the environment as well.
Methodology
Translog cost function has been used to investigate the multiple effects of energy substitution from technology development on the growth rate of economic-environmental indicators in Iran's agricultural sector. The data used for the period 1988 to 2020 were collected from Central Bank, Iran Statistics Center, Ministry of Energy and World Food Organization.
Results and Discussion
The results has revealed that if the level of technology development increases, the substitution between capital and energy decreases and on the contrary, the substitution between labor and energy increases. The results have also shown that by reducing the amount of substitution between capital and energy, its negative effects on the economy and the quality of the environment are significant, and in contrast to the increase in the amount of substitution between labor and energy, it has a positive effect on the economy and the quality of environment. The higher level of technology development has increased the level of energy substitution.
Conclusion
The results of this research have shown that with an increase in the level of technology development on changes in energy consumption, the substitution between production factors in agricultural sector changes, which means that a 25% increase in technology development leads to an increase in energy consumption by 0.567%. In comparison, the changes in energy consumption are aligned with the development level of technology, which means that a small increase in the level of technology development leads to the rebound effects of energy. These energy feedback effects lead to an increase in substitution between capital and energy by 0.068% and a decrease in substitution between labor and energy by 0.412% compared to the initial level of technology development, but with a further increase in the level of technology development, the effect of energy feedback effects on energy substitution decreases. The results have also shown that with an increase in the level of technology development in the targeting period of energy subsidy, the amount of energy return effects increases, but at a higher level of technology development, these energy return effects decrease in the agricultural sector. Therefore, it is concluded that in the early stages of technology development, which is at a lower level, its effects on energy return are significant, but with the development of technology at a higher level, its value has gradually decreased and does not remain stable. The results have also revealed that with an increase in the level of technology development, the degree of substitution between capital and energy decreases and on the other hand, the degree of substitution between labor and energy increases, and these effects are greater at a higher level of technology development. Therefore, increasing the level of technology leads to a decrease in investment and an increase in employment in the agricultural sector at the same time. In addition, it was found that by reducing the substitution between capital and energy, the negative effects on economic indicators and environmental quality are significant. The reason that the development of the level of technology in Iran's agricultural sector has had significant negative economic effects can be seen in the exhaustion of the technology used in the production of this sector. The application of these technologies, will lead to a higher cost of production which in turn result into a lower rates of profitability in the sector. Therefore, the incentive for production, investment and job creation in this sector decreases in the long term.
Dr Hojatolah Shayeganfard, Dr Mohsen Mehrara,
Volume 25, Issue 1 (3-2025)
Volume 25, Issue 1 (3-2025)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
Tehran province and its southeastern area (Varamin Plain) is a clear example of the dire situation in the country in terms of water scarcity. While the average rainfall in this area has always been declining in recent years, agricultural practice in this area is facing a difficult situation due to digging unauthorized wells, lack of clear water rights for the upstream dams, as well as transfering part of the wastewater from Tehran metropolis. In the past periods, the agricultural water of Varamin plain was supplied from atmospheric precipitation, water rights of upstream rivers and canals. Due to frequent droughts and other unnatural and human factors, these resources have been replaced by other sources of supply such as agricultural wells, water rights of upstream dams and Tehran urban sewage effluents. This form of water supply during planting and farming seasons, have created many problems for the farmers in Varamin Plain. In this article, while identifying these problems, impact assessment of the most important variables on Varamini farmers' preferences in using water resources extracted from irrigation canals are discussed by applying the discrete choice test method.
Methodology
Considering the widespread use of the discrete choice test technique in extracting the preferences of goods and services for which there is no market, or the market is incomplete, in this research, in order to value and extract the willingness to pay for non-market variables (water quality, water release rights of dams and canals, the quality status of water canals and how to monitor the water flow) by considering the variable "water price" as the normalizing monetary variable, the discrete choice test technique has been used. To achieve this goal, four steps; Identification of variables and their levels, design of selection sets, distribution of questionnaires and data collection and finally implementation of statistical analysis have been done.
Findings
The signs of the estimated coefficients show that any reduction in agricultural water price, improved water quality, tightened water source monitoring, guaranteed water rights released from the dams and canals, improved and expanded water canals will increase the level of utility of Varamini farmers. In the context of farmers' willingness to pay (by including agricultural water price variable as a normalizing monetary variable), the research findings showed that the variable "water rights status released from dams and canals" is the most important one in the preferences of the respondents (farmers) who are willing to pay a higher price of 58% of water in exchange for guaranteeing the supply and receipt of water during the low rainfall seasons of the year. This shows the vulnerability of farmers and agricultural products cultivated in Varamin Plain in the face of water scarcity and drought crisis.
Discussion and Conclusion
By including the agricultural price water rate variable as a normalizing monetary variable), the findings of the research showed that "the status of water rights created by dams and canals" variable is the most important in the preferences of the respondents (farmers), as they are willing to spend the most for guaranteeing the supply and receipt of water in the low rainfall seasons of the year (paying 58% of the higher water price to guarantee water rights in the planting and harvesting seasons). On the other hand, "monitoring status of water mains" variable has the least importance in the preferences of the respondents (farmers) in such a way that they are willing to pay only 11% more for intensifying monitoring of water mains.
On the other hand, the calculations related to the probability of choosing the levels of the variables showed: a) the probability of choosing the current price of water is equal to 55%. b) the probability of choosing higher quality water is 63%. c) the probability of choosing a centralized government supervision on the performance of waterworks is equal to 57%. d) The probability of trying to get enough water in the summer seasons (hot seasons) is equal to 81%. f) The probability of paying attention to the repair and expansion of the canals is equal to 60%. In addition to that, in the context of providing policy recommendations, it is suggested to pay serious attention to the issue of agricultural water in the Varamin Plain. Establishing a chemical treatment plant, and improving irrigation canals, are highly recommended since agricultural produce of this plain are considered as one of the main sources of food supply for Tehran metropolis. Otherwise, it can potentially cause detrimental damage to the health of Tehran citizens due to heavy metal penetration into agricultural produce in the long term. Any form of negligence will make the fertile lands of the region barren and uncultivable due to the accumulation of heavy metals in the soil
Tehran province and its southeastern area (Varamin Plain) is a clear example of the dire situation in the country in terms of water scarcity. While the average rainfall in this area has always been declining in recent years, agricultural practice in this area is facing a difficult situation due to digging unauthorized wells, lack of clear water rights for the upstream dams, as well as transfering part of the wastewater from Tehran metropolis. In the past periods, the agricultural water of Varamin plain was supplied from atmospheric precipitation, water rights of upstream rivers and canals. Due to frequent droughts and other unnatural and human factors, these resources have been replaced by other sources of supply such as agricultural wells, water rights of upstream dams and Tehran urban sewage effluents. This form of water supply during planting and farming seasons, have created many problems for the farmers in Varamin Plain. In this article, while identifying these problems, impact assessment of the most important variables on Varamini farmers' preferences in using water resources extracted from irrigation canals are discussed by applying the discrete choice test method.
Methodology
Considering the widespread use of the discrete choice test technique in extracting the preferences of goods and services for which there is no market, or the market is incomplete, in this research, in order to value and extract the willingness to pay for non-market variables (water quality, water release rights of dams and canals, the quality status of water canals and how to monitor the water flow) by considering the variable "water price" as the normalizing monetary variable, the discrete choice test technique has been used. To achieve this goal, four steps; Identification of variables and their levels, design of selection sets, distribution of questionnaires and data collection and finally implementation of statistical analysis have been done.
Findings
The signs of the estimated coefficients show that any reduction in agricultural water price, improved water quality, tightened water source monitoring, guaranteed water rights released from the dams and canals, improved and expanded water canals will increase the level of utility of Varamini farmers. In the context of farmers' willingness to pay (by including agricultural water price variable as a normalizing monetary variable), the research findings showed that the variable "water rights status released from dams and canals" is the most important one in the preferences of the respondents (farmers) who are willing to pay a higher price of 58% of water in exchange for guaranteeing the supply and receipt of water during the low rainfall seasons of the year. This shows the vulnerability of farmers and agricultural products cultivated in Varamin Plain in the face of water scarcity and drought crisis.
Discussion and Conclusion
By including the agricultural price water rate variable as a normalizing monetary variable), the findings of the research showed that "the status of water rights created by dams and canals" variable is the most important in the preferences of the respondents (farmers), as they are willing to spend the most for guaranteeing the supply and receipt of water in the low rainfall seasons of the year (paying 58% of the higher water price to guarantee water rights in the planting and harvesting seasons). On the other hand, "monitoring status of water mains" variable has the least importance in the preferences of the respondents (farmers) in such a way that they are willing to pay only 11% more for intensifying monitoring of water mains.
On the other hand, the calculations related to the probability of choosing the levels of the variables showed: a) the probability of choosing the current price of water is equal to 55%. b) the probability of choosing higher quality water is 63%. c) the probability of choosing a centralized government supervision on the performance of waterworks is equal to 57%. d) The probability of trying to get enough water in the summer seasons (hot seasons) is equal to 81%. f) The probability of paying attention to the repair and expansion of the canals is equal to 60%. In addition to that, in the context of providing policy recommendations, it is suggested to pay serious attention to the issue of agricultural water in the Varamin Plain. Establishing a chemical treatment plant, and improving irrigation canals, are highly recommended since agricultural produce of this plain are considered as one of the main sources of food supply for Tehran metropolis. Otherwise, it can potentially cause detrimental damage to the health of Tehran citizens due to heavy metal penetration into agricultural produce in the long term. Any form of negligence will make the fertile lands of the region barren and uncultivable due to the accumulation of heavy metals in the soil
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