Search published articles
Mrs Zhila Saleki, Dr Reza Ranjpour, Dr Elham Nobahar,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (12-2024)
Volume 0, Issue 0 (12-2024)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
The central bank operates by setting an inflation target and implementing monetary policies to achieve its economic goals. The accurate estimation and calculation of actual inflation in society are crucial for establishing the correct inflation target. Any discrepancy between the set inflation target and real inflation can disrupt the central bank's policy-making. If the actual inflation differs from the inflation perceived by society, it can further complicate the central bank's decision-making process.
Society's perception of inflation, as reflected in inflation expectations, refers to consumers' personal feelings and assessments of the rate at which market prices are rising. This perception is often associated with an increase in the cost of living, products, and services, as well as a decrease in the standard of living. Criticisms have been raised regarding the rationality of individuals when estimating inflation rates. Carroll's epidemiological model (2001) posits that individuals form their expectations of future inflation based on the information they receive, such as expert forecasts published in articles. Those who do not encounter such articles may rely on previous inflation statistics and forecasts they have come across.
Initially, the influence of the media on society's perception of inflation was considered. Subsequent developments in this theory led to the identification of various experimental factors from different societal studies that can impact this perception. It is crucially important to note that factors other than those involved in the calculation of the inflation rate can also influence this index.
Methodology
This study investigates inflation perception through both qualitative and quantitative approaches and explores its relationship with potential influencing factors. The Consumer Inflation Expectations Index quantifies the percentage by which consumers anticipate prices of goods and services to fluctuate over the next 12 months. The index is constructed by developing a questionnaire that reflects the socio-economic conditions of the countries under study. The questionnaire encompasses various inquiries pertaining to past experiences of price changes, personal financial circumstances, business conditions, purchasing power, expectations regarding interest rates and inflation, and significant purchasing and saving intentions. Understanding the determinants of perceived inflation is vital for the efficacious implementation of policies within a society. This research was conducted within a comprehensive framework, evaluating a sample of 384 consumers in the city of Tabriz. Participants were selected randomly in November 2023 and consisted of either household heads or family members responsible for a substantial proportion of household expenditures, all aged 15 and older. The causal-comparative method was utilized to analyze the collected data, acknowledging that individual perceptions of inflation may be influenced by variables such as geographical location, gender, level of knowledge and education, performance, attitude, and subjective norms. Some of these variables may be inherent traits that are unchangeable, while others may be external factors beyond the control of the researcher or unethical to manipulate. Furthermore, this method was employed to identify factors associated with unsuccessful policy implementation to prevent their recurrence, as well as to pinpoint and cultivate beneficial factors.
Findings
The survey results from this study indicate that the perceived inflation rate in Tabriz in November 2023 was 70.54%, compared to 50.40% as reported by the Iranian Statistics Center for the same period, showing a discrepancy of approximately 20.14% between the community's perceived inflation rate and the official inflation rate. Additionally, the perceived inflation rate for October 2023 was estimated at 59.80%, which is higher than the official inflation rate of 51.20%. The forecasted perceived inflation rate for December 2023 was also examined, estimated at 57.83%, showing a decreasing trend compared to November's perceived inflation rate. This rate was compared with the official rate of 70.49% reported by the Statistics Center. The significant gap between perceived and official inflation rates confirms the high bias in the perceived inflation rate relative to the official rate and indicates a concurrent movement between the actual inflation rate and the perceived inflation rate. As a result, the impact of expected inflation, derived from perceived inflation, on the official inflation rate is validated. The results also revealed that perceived inflation rates are higher among women, part-time employees, manufacturing workers, unemployed educated individuals, and married people. Factors such as very low knowledge of the concept of inflation and related statistics, incorrect recollection of past prices, the disproportionate effect of frequent purchases, asymmetric perception of price increases and decreases, and household income levels play a significant role in explaining the highest perceptions of inflation rates. Furthermore, individual behaviors in purchasing and consuming goods have led to increased perceptions of inflation. The role of media and social networks in shaping inflation perceptions has been very prominent, with the highest perceived inflation rates attributed to the influence of reports from foreign media. Changes in the gold and currency markets also had the greatest impact on consumers' inflation rate estimates.
Discussion and Conclusion
The achievement of objectives stemming from policy implementation relies heavily on the accurate estimation of the said policies and the factors influencing their execution. This study has revealed that the perceived inflation rate and its influencing factors may deviate from the official inflation rate and its contributing factors. Inaccurate estimations heighten the risk of policy misalignments with predetermined goals. It is therefore imperative that estimating the perceived inflation rate and its influencing factors falls within the purview of executing centers and is factored into the planning of societal policies as a whole
The central bank operates by setting an inflation target and implementing monetary policies to achieve its economic goals. The accurate estimation and calculation of actual inflation in society are crucial for establishing the correct inflation target. Any discrepancy between the set inflation target and real inflation can disrupt the central bank's policy-making. If the actual inflation differs from the inflation perceived by society, it can further complicate the central bank's decision-making process.
Society's perception of inflation, as reflected in inflation expectations, refers to consumers' personal feelings and assessments of the rate at which market prices are rising. This perception is often associated with an increase in the cost of living, products, and services, as well as a decrease in the standard of living. Criticisms have been raised regarding the rationality of individuals when estimating inflation rates. Carroll's epidemiological model (2001) posits that individuals form their expectations of future inflation based on the information they receive, such as expert forecasts published in articles. Those who do not encounter such articles may rely on previous inflation statistics and forecasts they have come across.
Initially, the influence of the media on society's perception of inflation was considered. Subsequent developments in this theory led to the identification of various experimental factors from different societal studies that can impact this perception. It is crucially important to note that factors other than those involved in the calculation of the inflation rate can also influence this index.
Methodology
This study investigates inflation perception through both qualitative and quantitative approaches and explores its relationship with potential influencing factors. The Consumer Inflation Expectations Index quantifies the percentage by which consumers anticipate prices of goods and services to fluctuate over the next 12 months. The index is constructed by developing a questionnaire that reflects the socio-economic conditions of the countries under study. The questionnaire encompasses various inquiries pertaining to past experiences of price changes, personal financial circumstances, business conditions, purchasing power, expectations regarding interest rates and inflation, and significant purchasing and saving intentions. Understanding the determinants of perceived inflation is vital for the efficacious implementation of policies within a society. This research was conducted within a comprehensive framework, evaluating a sample of 384 consumers in the city of Tabriz. Participants were selected randomly in November 2023 and consisted of either household heads or family members responsible for a substantial proportion of household expenditures, all aged 15 and older. The causal-comparative method was utilized to analyze the collected data, acknowledging that individual perceptions of inflation may be influenced by variables such as geographical location, gender, level of knowledge and education, performance, attitude, and subjective norms. Some of these variables may be inherent traits that are unchangeable, while others may be external factors beyond the control of the researcher or unethical to manipulate. Furthermore, this method was employed to identify factors associated with unsuccessful policy implementation to prevent their recurrence, as well as to pinpoint and cultivate beneficial factors.
Findings
The survey results from this study indicate that the perceived inflation rate in Tabriz in November 2023 was 70.54%, compared to 50.40% as reported by the Iranian Statistics Center for the same period, showing a discrepancy of approximately 20.14% between the community's perceived inflation rate and the official inflation rate. Additionally, the perceived inflation rate for October 2023 was estimated at 59.80%, which is higher than the official inflation rate of 51.20%. The forecasted perceived inflation rate for December 2023 was also examined, estimated at 57.83%, showing a decreasing trend compared to November's perceived inflation rate. This rate was compared with the official rate of 70.49% reported by the Statistics Center. The significant gap between perceived and official inflation rates confirms the high bias in the perceived inflation rate relative to the official rate and indicates a concurrent movement between the actual inflation rate and the perceived inflation rate. As a result, the impact of expected inflation, derived from perceived inflation, on the official inflation rate is validated. The results also revealed that perceived inflation rates are higher among women, part-time employees, manufacturing workers, unemployed educated individuals, and married people. Factors such as very low knowledge of the concept of inflation and related statistics, incorrect recollection of past prices, the disproportionate effect of frequent purchases, asymmetric perception of price increases and decreases, and household income levels play a significant role in explaining the highest perceptions of inflation rates. Furthermore, individual behaviors in purchasing and consuming goods have led to increased perceptions of inflation. The role of media and social networks in shaping inflation perceptions has been very prominent, with the highest perceived inflation rates attributed to the influence of reports from foreign media. Changes in the gold and currency markets also had the greatest impact on consumers' inflation rate estimates.
Discussion and Conclusion
The achievement of objectives stemming from policy implementation relies heavily on the accurate estimation of the said policies and the factors influencing their execution. This study has revealed that the perceived inflation rate and its influencing factors may deviate from the official inflation rate and its contributing factors. Inaccurate estimations heighten the risk of policy misalignments with predetermined goals. It is therefore imperative that estimating the perceived inflation rate and its influencing factors falls within the purview of executing centers and is factored into the planning of societal policies as a whole
Mr. Reza Shakeri Bostanabad, Dr. Zahra Jalili,
Volume 20, Issue 4 (12-2020)
Volume 20, Issue 4 (12-2020)
Abstract
The distribution of resources and potentials is of crucial importance in the regional economy, social justice, poverty reduction and economic growth and development. Thus, fair distribution of income is one of the most important concerns of policymakers and economic researchers. However, since the income distribution index (Gini coefficient) is limited to range between zero and one, the use of standard linear models may not measure accurately the effect of other variables on it. Therefore, this study attempts to identify the variables affecting income distribution in the provinces of Iran over the period 2005-2016 using a Fractional Panel Probit Model. This approach is able to estimate the average partial effects of dependent variables with fractional data ranging from zero to one. The results show that the relationship between economic growth and income distribution does not support the Kuznets’s hypothesis. Among the control variables, per capita government expenditure, financial development and inflation have negative and significant effects on the Gini coefficient. According to the findings, it is suggested that the government should implement policies to promote financial development and to increase the efficiency of financial instruments, as well as to invest on education and health in order to benefit all strata of society.
Dr. Hossein Aliasgharpour Moziraji, Dr. Nooraddin Sharify,
Volume 20, Issue 4 (12-2020)
Volume 20, Issue 4 (12-2020)
Abstract
One of the basic functions of input-output analysis is to identify the economic structure of regions and countries. This research seeks to identify the key sectors of Iran's provinces and to compare them with national key sectors. The data is extracted from the national input-output table and regional accounts of the Statistical Center of Iran in 2011. The results show that based on the "total gross backward and forward linkages" criterion, there are 17 and 20 key sectors, respectively, with and without considering the "dispersion of the linkages", at national level. With same criterion, every province has at least one and two key sectors, respectively. However, some key sectors of provinces are not listed as national key sectors, and are not included in the central planning. On the contrary, a number of national key sectors are not categorized as key sectors in the provincial level. In addition, due to the larger usage of national resources in key sectors, the provinces with more common key sectors with national economy have higher GDP per capita. Thus, it seems due to inconsistency between some regional economic structure with national one, considering the provincial key sectors in national economic planning leads to optimal use of national resources through increasing the GDP per capita and decreasing the interregional disparities.
Dr. Marzieh Ahmadi, Dr. Ruhollah Alikhan Gorgani,
Volume 21, Issue 1 (3-2021)
Volume 21, Issue 1 (3-2021)
Abstract
Regarding the bilateral relationship between financial decentralization and regional development at the national level, this study examines the relationship between regional inequality and vertical balance financial decentralization across the provinces of Iran. For this purpose, the calculations are carried out in two stages: in the first stage, the Composite Index of Regional Development (CIRD) is calculated in five dimensions (macroeconomics, science and innovation, environmental sustainability, human capital and public services) by using the two-stage principal components analysis (PCA) during 2006-2016. In the second stage, the interactions between vertical balance financial decentralization and regional development are estimated using the simultaneous equations and error component two-stage least squares (EC2SLS). The results of the first stage analysis show that Tehran province is at the highest level of development, and Sistan and Baluchestan province is at the lowest level of development, and these two provinces practically reflect the wide inequality in the provinces of Iran. In addition, the highest regional inequality is related to the dimensions of science, innovation and human capital. The results of the second stage indicate that the effect of vertical balance financial decentralization on negative regional development is significant and negative, meaning that if provinces spend based on their income, a slight decrease in provincial development has it Because provinces play lesser role in determining tax rates and bases, less developed provinces are not able to generate sufficient revenue to cover their provincial expenditures. Financial decentralization also increases with an increase in regional development, meaning that provinces with different levels of development are likely to have different tendencies toward the quality and quantity of public goods.
Dr. Zahra Alinezhad, Dr. Sayed Mohammad Bagher Najafi, Dr. Jamal Fathollahi, Dr. Nader Zali,
Volume 21, Issue 1 (3-2021)
Volume 21, Issue 1 (3-2021)
Abstract
The knowledge-based economy is the newest pattern of production in the current era. So far, this pattern has resulted in unique achievements for a wide range of countries. This study aims to classify the provinces of Iran in terms of Knowledge-based economy. The classification of provinces based on their similarity in achieving the knowledge-based production pattern is the first step for correct and realistic planning. The same version cannot be used for different provinces. The regional knowledge-based economy index is defined in three dimensions: education, innovation, and information and communication technology, based on 15 sub-indices. The classification is based on the clustering technique, which is one of the branches of unsupervised learning. To do this, k-means and fuzzy c-means algorithms are used simultaneously to compare their results. The optimal number of clusters is calculated through the Silhouette coefficient. This coefficient also indicates the accuracy of the clustering results. Clustering based on the fuzzy c-means algorithm in 6-cluster case with a Silhouette coefficient of 0.77 is the most appropriate classification for research purposes. The results show that there is a clear discrepancy between different provinces in the context of knowledge-based economy. Tehran and Alborz are in separate clusters and are among the leading classes compared to others, while more than half of the provinces belong to backward cluster.
Dr Lotfali Agheli, Mr. Mehran Samdaliri, Dr Bahram Sahabi,
Volume 21, Issue 2 (6-2021)
Volume 21, Issue 2 (6-2021)
Abstract
The economic structure in oil-dependent countries is different from other countries. The human development index (HDI) may increase due to rising oil rents and subsequent increases in per capita income, but there may be no significant improvement in other indicators (literacy rate and life expectancy). The improper injection of oil rents into the country's budget without investing in manufacturing, agriculture and services, whether domestically or abroad, leads to the Dutch disease and “resource curse”. Bilateral official development assistance (BODA) from the members of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) can have a positive impact on human development without having a negative impact on various economic and social aspects. In this regard, this study examines the impact of BODA on human development using a Panel-Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (Panal-FMOLS) model in selected countries (Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Yemen, Jordan, Azerbaijan and Georgia from Southwest Asia, and Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Myanmar from Southeast Asia) during 1999-2018. The results indicate that BODA and health expenditure have positive and significant effects on HDI. The findings also indicate a significant negative impact of oil rent, population growth rate and unemployment rate on HDI. The effect of personal remittances is different in the two samples, so that these funds have negative impact on HDI in the Southwest Asia and a positive effect on HDI in the Southeast Asia.
Mr. Reza Shakeri Bostanabad, Mr. Mohsen Salehi Komroudi,
Volume 21, Issue 2 (6-2021)
Volume 21, Issue 2 (6-2021)
Abstract
In Iran, after exchange rate jumps, the issue of export prices, and especially its impact on economic growth, has become more important. Some experts argue that as the exchange rate rises, more domestic currency is bought with regard to each foreign currency; thus, domestic goods become cheaper than foreign goods and real exports increase. On the opposite side, some believe that the increase in the exchange rate has no meaningful effect on the increase in exports due to the weakness of the export development infrastructure. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of export price on Iran's economic growth using Structural Vector Auto-regression (SVAR) and Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) during 1979-2017. The results of the study indicate that export price has a positive effect on the economic growth. Economic growth also reduces export prices. But due to the fact that exports and economic growth of the country are highly dependent on imports, especially on import prices; it is not possible to increase production and exports by increasing the exchange rate, especially as the positive effect of rising export prices on economic growth is relatively low.
Dr Monir Moradi, Dr Darush Hasanvand, Kaveh Derakhshani, Dr Ahmad Sarlak,
Volume 21, Issue 3 (9-2021)
Volume 21, Issue 3 (9-2021)
Abstract
This research explains the impact of informal institutions (corruption control) and formal institutions (number of procedures, education and entrepreneurship training and skills, access to credit and technology absorption) on entrepreneurship development in 10 in selected Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, including Iran during 2005 – 2019. The type of study is descriptive. The present article estimates a panel data model by using the available data from international statistical institutes. Eviews and Stata14 software’s are used for the calculations. The results show that the if corruption control increases, the entrepreneurship will increase, since there is a positive and significant relationship between corruption control and formal institutions, and entrepreneurship development. Among the MENA countries, corruption control has the least impact on entrepreneurship in Iran and the highest impact in Qatar. Also, corruption control, training and skills and technology absorption have had great impacts on the entrepreneurship development.
Mrs. Azadeh Arab, Dr Ahmad Sarlak, Dr Mojtaba Ghiasi, Dr Maryam Sharifnezhad,
Volume 21, Issue 4 (11-2021)
Volume 21, Issue 4 (11-2021)
Abstract
Financial development and stability and their relationship with economic growth is one of the most important and influential issues in economic growth. Therefore, economists have studied this issue by exerting different conditions. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of financial development and financial stability on Iran's economic growth using the generalized method of moments (GMM) during 1992-2019. The results show positive and meaningful effects of financial development and financial stability on economic growth. The variables of lagged economic growth, education, fixed investment and trade liberalization have positive and significant effects on economic growth, while, inflation, government expenditure and active population have negative impacts on economic growth. Therefore, considering the important role of education, it is recommended to government to invest in this sector and upgrade the production structure, make the necessary structural reforms in the capital market and banking system, direct credit and liquidity to strengthen private sector production, as well as improve the level and composition of government spending in order to increase production efficiency.
Dr Morteza Ezzati, Dr Zana Mozaffari,
Volume 22, Issue 1 (3-2022)
Volume 22, Issue 1 (3-2022)
Abstract
The quality of manpower is one of the factors affecting the environmental degradation. According to studies, air pollution is affected by its past values, so a dynamic model should be used to study it. Accordingly, using the GMM method, the present study evaluates the impact of human capital on air pollution in Iran during 1981-2019. Human capital is a latent variable in economics and is often replaced by alternative proxies. In this paper, like most previous studies, the research model was firstly estimated using the average proxy of years of schooling (as an indicator of human capital), which resulted in statistical insignificance and theoretical inconsistency in the estimated coefficients. Based on theoretical foundations, it is argued that the human capital index in addition to the education component is influenced by other aspects such as skills and health. Therefore, using fuzzy logic, an indicator for human capital in the Iranian economy has been constructed, so that it includes three main aspects (education, skills and health) of human capital. The results of estimation of the air pollution model using the human capital index showed that improving the level of human capital had a negative effect on air pollution. Therefore, by increasing human capital and improving the quality of manpower, we can expect to reduce air pollution and environmental degradation. In addition, urbanization, industrialization, trade freedom, economic growth and pollution in the previous period had positive and significant effects on air pollution.
Mr. Reza Alikhan Beyk Zand,
Volume 22, Issue 1 (3-2022)
Volume 22, Issue 1 (3-2022)
Abstract
Human capital causes increase in the production factors productivity and in turn affects economic growth positively. In this study, we intend to study the effect of human capital on economic value added in Iran by extracting the type and manner of the influencing of education costs on economic growth and to provide appropriate solutions to promote this role in the economy. The method of this research is descriptive-analytical. To evaluate the short-term equilibrium relationship between the variables, we use the Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) method. Based on the results, in the short-term, human capital indicators have positive impacts on growth of economic value added. The long-term results indicate that the gross secondary and university enrollment ratio, the import of goods, services and income growth, the percentage of public education costs to GDP, the percentage of private health spending to GDP, the labor force participation (aged 15 and more), the foreign direct investment growth, government efficiency, quality of rules and annual growth of gross capital formation have positive and significant effects on economic value added growth.
Error correction term of ARDL model is - 0.78. that shows in each period 78% of short term shocks will be adjusted to the long-term value. The results of this study can be used by policymakers because identifying the factors affecting economic growth, can make economic planners inform in two important aspects, firstly, by considering new variables in planning and thus the optimal allocation of resources, and secondly, by reducing errors due to misanalysis of the factors affecting economic growth.
Error correction term of ARDL model is - 0.78. that shows in each period 78% of short term shocks will be adjusted to the long-term value. The results of this study can be used by policymakers because identifying the factors affecting economic growth, can make economic planners inform in two important aspects, firstly, by considering new variables in planning and thus the optimal allocation of resources, and secondly, by reducing errors due to misanalysis of the factors affecting economic growth.
Dr Zana Mozaffari, Khaled Ahmadzadeh,
Volume 22, Issue 2 (6-2022)
Volume 22, Issue 2 (6-2022)
Abstract
Investing in housing is one of the most common methods of investing in Iran. The housing and construction sector has a widespread relationship with other economic sectors. Housing annually attracts a large amount of liquidity in the country, so investing in this sector is more important in the process of growth. In this paper, first the relationship between investing in housing and economic growth is evaluated by the Granger causality test. The results of this test showed that there is a one-way causal relationship from investing in housing to economic growth. Then, using GMM method and time series data from 1981-2019, the impact of investing in housing on Iran's economic growth is studied. The results showed that investing in housing has a positive and significant effect on Iran's economic growth. The lag of variable “economic growth” has a positive effect on economic growth in later years. Also, other results indicate that human capital, capital stock, government expenditure index and industrialization index have positive and significant effects on Iran's economic growth. Based on the results, it can be suggested that the shortcomings and barriers to investment in the housing sector should be removed, and also incentives and facilities for investment in housing can be effective in increasing economic growth.
Mrs. Maryam Jafari Taraji, Dr Majid Maddah, Dr Nooraddin Sharify,
Volume 22, Issue 2 (6-2022)
Volume 22, Issue 2 (6-2022)
Abstract
Green growth emphasizes the production and supply of eco-friendly products and is considered a suitable strategy for economic growth along with the preservation of natural resources and reducing pollution emission in different countries. Given that Iran as a developing country does not perform well in terms of the green growth index, it is necessary to evaluate energy consumption, pollution of various economic activities, and identifying economic opportunities for green growth in terms of production and employment indicators. This study, using the multi-factor energy input-output method and input-output table data related to 2016, investigates the impact of final demand on primary energy consumption, CO2 emission, economic growth, and energy jobs which in turn identifies green growth potentials in Iran's economic sectors with considering both growth and employment indicators. The results show that the sectors related to the production of agricultural and livestock products, services and food products have the lowest CO2 emissions for each unit of production growth and the growth of energy jobs. On the other hand, due to the low growth potential of transportation services, base metals, rubber and plastic products, encouraging higher final demand for products will not be attractive; so that, structural changes in these sectors are necessary for planning green growth.
Mr. Majid Raoofmehr, Dr Zeinolabedin Sadeghi, Dr Seyed Abdulmajid Jalaee,
Volume 22, Issue 2 (6-2022)
Volume 22, Issue 2 (6-2022)
Abstract
In this study, a new composite index, called the SWI (Sustainable Welfare Index) is proposed to assess "sustainable welfare". This index consists of significant social, economic, and environmental variables in flow and monetary forms, and can be directly compared to the GDP. Despite the paucity of statistical data, an attempt has been made to make a relative assessment of sustainable welfare in the Iranian economy during the years 2004 to 2018. According to the comparison of calculated SWI with GDP, it has been shown that the two indicators have similar movements and higher correlations in the period under study. In addition, despite the availability of economic growth during the period, society has been below a sustainable welfare level. In this study, the threshold effect of three SWI sub-indices on the total index was assessed using the smooth transition regression (STR) Model. As a result, the sub-index "Social Expenditure" through changes in "welfare losses due to income inequality" is of threshold effect on SWI.
Dr Azadeh Arab, Dr Ahmad Sarlak, Dr Mojtaba Ghiasi, Dr Maryam Shariehnezhad,
Volume 22, Issue 3 (9-2022)
Volume 22, Issue 3 (9-2022)
Abstract
Financial instability can lead to failure in financial markets and create macroeconomic costs. Therefore, by examining this harmful event, we can achieve conditions of economic stability and security. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the financial instability of Middle Eastern countries during the years 2000 to 2019 in a dynamic model and using a two-stage system of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). To reach this goal, the index of instability and financial development was created on the basis of the influential variables of the banking sector and the stock market in two groups of oil exporting and non-exporting countries in the region. The estimation results show the different effects of variables on financial instability in exporting and non-exporting countries. Most countries in the region are oil exporters and the results of the estimate confirm the negative and significant impact of financial development and economic growth on financial instability. Also, in order to create a more comprehensive view, the control variables of the terms of trade, government spending and inflation have been used in the model. The first lag of financial instability and inflation variable have positive and significant effects and the terms of trade and government spending have negative and significant effects on financial instability. In oil non-exporting countries, due to less financial instability than exporting countries, the relationship between a number of variables and financial instability was not significant and different results were obtained. It is recommended that policy makers reduce financial instability by controlling prices and directing liquidity and credits to production, reforming the level and composition of government spending, and improving trade relations.
Ali Mohammadipour,
Volume 22, Issue 4 (12-2022)
Volume 22, Issue 4 (12-2022)
Abstract
Introduction
Considering the international policy towards sustainable development and conflict of the energy subsidy with the SDG, the present study examines the effects of subsidy on the realization of sustainable development in the selected countries. For this purpose, by designing and constructing a Composite Indicator (CI) for sustainable development, the performance of the top five countries in the world in terms of paying the most energy subsidies (first group), is compared with the performance of the world's large economies in terms of the highest rate of GDP (second group, mainly without paying energy subsidies). The hypotheses of the research are: 1) there is a negative relationship between the rankings of countries in terms of the largest energy subsidies with the ranking based on the realization of sustainable development. 2) the countries of the second group (with the lowest energy subsidies) have on average a better situation in achieving sustainable development compared to the countries of the first group. 3) among the countries of the second group, China has the least realization in sustainable development by paying significant energy subsidies.
Methodology
In the present study, the composite index of sustainable development is investigated using 12 variables in the form of three economic, social and environmental dimensions and based on the design of Multiple Attribute Decision Making (MADM). The targeted CI is calculated using seven approaches: Z-Score, Max-Min, McGranahan, Experts’ Judgements Scoring, Guttman, TOPSIS and VIKOR, for selected countries over the period of 1990-2020, and the results are presented and compared at static and dynamic levels. To weight the variables, the same weighting technique, McGranahan, EJ scoring, Guttman and CRITIC (Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation) are used in the calculations.
Findings
The results of the study indicate the unfavorable situation of Iran in paying energy subsidies (ranked first in the world) and the realization of sustainable development (ranked last among the countries surveyed); Germany, on the other hand, ranks first in the study without paying energy subsidies. Ranking countries at the dynamic level, while eliminating the existing problems at the static level, indicates a strong negative relationship between paying energy subsidies and achieving sustainable development. This confirms the first hypothesis of the research. In this regard, the correlation between the average energy subsidy and
Discussion and Conclusion
Regarding some minor differences in the results of the seven approaches, using De Montis et al. (2021)'s experience based on calculating the average ranks and Miç & Figen Antmen (2021)'s experience based on setting the criterion of the highest repetition of the rank in different approaches, all hypotheses are confirmed and the ranking of the countries does not change. Also, if we perform a sensitivity analysis on the approaches, there will be no change in the final ranking result. The main suggestion derived from the results of the research is the necessity of planning to eliminate energy subsidies in the country in accordance with international policies from 2015. However, according to Mohammadipour et al. (2022), the removal of energy subsidies and the modification of the energy carriers’ prices creates very extensive and lasting (long-term) destructive effects on macroeconomic variables. On the other hand, according to Taylor (2020), based on the REmap (Renewable Energy roadmap analysis) by IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency), firstly, policy development in the direction of renewable energy, nuclear, etc., and planning to reduce fossil fuel subsidies have been identified in the form of two axes (until 2030 and until 2050). And secondly, a special path has been drawn to manage and move from harmful subsidies to the environment and sustainable development to environmentally friendly subsidies until 2050. Therefore, considering the destructive effects of energy subsidies, it is suggested that all reforms and removal of energy subsidies should be carried out in the form of a comprehensive, regulated, gradual program with a strong redistributive role of the government. Secondly, all these actions should be done in line with the global planning and policy and taking into account the REmap. Also, the research results of the study suggest that in the design of MADM models, when the data are of the time series type, Z-Score, Max-Min, McGranahan, Experts’ Judgements Scoring and Guttman approaches perform better (and more recommended) by replacing the opposite variable for each time series data. However, when the data are not in the time series form, the performance of TOPSIS and VIKOR approaches are optimal (and more recommended) by simplifying complex relationships.
Dr Hasan Heydari, Mr. Vahid Nikpey Pesyan,
Volume 23, Issue 1 (3-2023)
Volume 23, Issue 1 (3-2023)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
Unemployment is a major issue in developing countries. The high rate of unemployment means that the country does not use the workforce effectively. Unemployment is the worst economic problem due to its negative impact on the individual and society and the speed of its spread in the world. Therefore, solving the problem of unemployment is one of the most important goals of institutions. Trade liberalization is one of the effective factors in reducing the unemployment rate.
Globalization is an inevitable process with different economic, social and political aspects. Meanwhile, trade liberalization is considered as the main symbol of globalization and its most important driving force. Therefore, considering the high unemployment rate in most of the provinces of Iran, with the increase in commercial liberalization in line with the economic growth and development, it can be seen in the sectors that have a relative advantage. Increasing national security and political and economic stability provides the necessary infrastructure to attract foreign investors. Therefore, by increasing trade liberalization, it is possible to overcome many economic and political problems in the provinces of Iran, and its effects will spill over to the provinces with the high unemployment rate and will increase economic growth, will increase gross domestic product and finally will reduce the unemployment rate in the provinces of the country.
Methodology
In spatial econometrics, spatial effects are added to the performance of periodic or complex regression models (panels). Therefore, in spatial econometrics, sample information has a spatial component. When data has a spatial component, two issues can be discussed: (1) Spatial dependence, and (2) Spatial heterogeneity. Before estimating spatial panel models, we need to perform spatial dependence tests and to check the existence of autocorrelation between disturbance terms. The existence of spatial coherence between observations and spatial autocorrelation between disturbance terms indicates the need to use spatial panel models. To do this, Moran, Jerry C, and Jetis Ord J tests are used. The Moran test examines the assumption of spatial autocorrelation between disturbance terms. In spatial econometric models, to model spatial reactions, it is necessary to select the numerical value of spatial directions. For this purpose, we have two sources of assumptions: (1) Position on the coordinate plane, which is expressed by latitude and longitude, so that the distance of any point in the location, or distance of any observation located at any point relative to fixed or central points or observations can be calculated. (2) The source of spatial information is neighborhood and neighborhood, which expresses the relative location in the space of an observed peripheral unit, compared to other such scales.
Findings
In this study, the impact of trade liberalization on the unemployment rate in the provinces of Iran over the period 2006-2019 was investigated with a spatial econometric approach. First, to check the spatial dependence, the spatial dependence of the provinces was confirmed by the Moran and Jerry C test, and based on the significance of the above tests, the research model was estimated in the spatial panel model. According to the results, trade liberalization shows positive effects on reducing the unemployment rate of these provinces, and this result is compatible with the results of other studies including Yanıkkaya (2008), Li et al (Li & et al., 2020), Adou (2021), Amini and Muradzad (2014) and Samimi et al (2014). The variables of gross domestic product and construction credits have positive and significant effects on reducing the unemployment rate. However, the inflation rate and the wage rate have negative and significant effects on reducing the unemployment rate of the provinces of Iran.
Discussion and Conclusion
Since according to the research literature, part of the unemployment rate is reduced through various channels such as trade liberalization, attracting foreign investment and export, considering that macroeconomic decisions are made in the center of the country, it is suggested It is possible, taking into account the increase in regional and provincial decision powers, it is possible to achieve favorable economic effects in the direction of improving macro-economic variables, policy and regional planning.
The cooperation between the central government and the provincial centers increases the security of the region (country). As a result, high security encourages foreign investment, increases the stability of the economic policy, facilitates the laws and removes obstacles. National security increases the degree of commercial openness, increases production and reduces the unemployment rate.
To achieve a balanced and convergent regional development and to resolve the spatial and financial disparities and heterogeneities of the country's provinces, it is suggested that the allocation of budget resources to the less developed provinces should be increased. And the share of allocation of budget resources of different provinces should be converged. As a result, the provinces of the country, especially the less developed provinces should be able to flourish as much as possible from the point of view of economic growth and unemployment rate reduction.
The lack of economic infrastructure in rural areas, especially in the industrial sector, increases the rate of emigration and the overflow of labor to urban areas. Therefore, the improvement of economic infrastructure and the increase of trade liberalization policies lead to the improvement of technology and innovation in the less developed regions, and ultimately lead to a decrease in the unemployment rate in the province level.
Mrs. Mahla Afsharpour, Dr Seyed Abdolmajid Jalaee Esfandabadi,
Volume 23, Issue 1 (3-2023)
Volume 23, Issue 1 (3-2023)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
Structural changes affect the share of final demand components in the whole economy. In fact, the importance of these changes is shown in the relative share of each of the economic sectors in terms of production and the factors used in production, If it causes economic growth through the organizational and institutional changes of the sectors.Therefore, structural changes are important and interesting topics in the world's economic research centers, and the results of these studies have important political implications. Since national and provincial credits are implemented in Iran every year in the form of numerous plans and projects, it is important to pay attention to this issue. First, it is necessary to determine the relative advantage of the provinces in order to optimally allocate credits in creating regional balances and to direct the provinces of the country towards regional specialization. Then credits should be allocated in the fields of growth and development and in order to create regional balances.
Methodology
In this study, due to the lack of up-to-date statistical data in the provincial area, the analysis of structural changes and regional inequalities has been investigated based on three scenarios. In the first scenario, in order to examine structural changes and regional inequalities, the method of basic economic analysis and the measurement of shift share indicators has been used. In the second scenario, structural changes in the interaction between Iran's provinces have been investigated using Heckscher-Ohlin theory. And in the third scenario, economic complexity indicators have been used to compare and analyze the state of relative advantage of the investigated provinces.
Findings
The findings of the study are presented under three scenarios. The results of the application of the shift share model in the first scenario show the disproportionate growth of the employees of different sectors of the provinces in the period under review. This issue is shown in negative structural changes. In other words, the combination of activities in the provinces has been unequal. Also, the effects of neighboring provinces on each other due to the dimension of distance and growth spillover have been neglected.
In the second scenario, the structural changes in the interaction between the provinces of the country have been investigated using Heckscher Ohlin's theory.
And finally, in the third scenario, economic complexity indicators have been used to compare and analyze the relative advantage of the investigated provinces. The factor content of trade in different sectors showed that with the export of goods and services, production factors have been exported and in sectors where advanced technology is needed, intermediate and capital goods have been imported. In the third scenario, The achievability of the production of a product is confirmed by the complexity sub-indices according to the access to production factors for the production and export of goods in a province. Hence, the difference between the provinces in terms of the density index shows that in dense areas, the provinces have exported products with relative advantage. So that the provinces have provided the required capabilities for production and export of various products. Therefore, the maximum capability is available for the development of the user's product group. On the other hand, although the provinces have specialized in several commodity groups, which has caused high density in the province, they have not been able to develop significantly the space around the goods. It is noteworthy that these options are set only based on the analysis of inter-departmental relations and in many cases, various internal and external factors have been ignored. Therefore, it can only draw a view of the communication between departments in the provinces of the country. Among the causes and factors of inequality and differences in the growth pattern of the provinces, we can refer to the macro policies of the country, the inherent characteristics of the regions, the macro strategies of the country regarding industrial location and geographical distribution of activities. Also, the country's trade strategy in the field of developing the exports of some goods can affect the regional growth pattern.
Discussion and Conclusion
Strategic sectors are not necessarily profitable economic sectors. But they can play the role of leadership and influence other sectors, and can spread the effects of growth and development to other economic sectors. Therefore, it can be said that employment policies should be adopted and applied based on the potential of the provinces. Then, investment should be made in the designated industries in the field of employment in each province. Then, increasing the level of interactions will bring many benefits to the provinces and ultimately to the country. Of course, the development of different provinces may not be compatible with each other in different sectors due to potential regional possibilities. In other words, although attention to macro policies is accepted as a principle in regional policy making. In fact, ignoring the possibilities, potential capacities, and relative advantages of each region and structural changes, leads to underdevelopment and inequality among regions. Hence, it is suggested that; Employment policies should be adopted and applied based on the relative advantage of the provinces at the country level to improve the favorable combination of industries and the lack of concentration of industries and the balanced distribution of employment. If there is a hidden comparative advantage, revealing this feature can be used as a reliable indicator in line with other macro indicators. It is worth noting that not paying attention to comparative advantage in the long run will be detrimental to Iran's growth. As well as considering the country's educated population and service users, it is necessary to put the development of productive services on the agenda of the country's planes.
Mrs. Zahra Avazpur, Dr Ahmad Ghorbanpur, Reza Jalali, Dr Hojja Parsa,
Volume 23, Issue 1 (3-2023)
Volume 23, Issue 1 (3-2023)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
In the last decade, the design of the green supply chain network has become very important due to the increase in competition in global markets to achieve success, which requires the simultaneous commitment and cooperation of suppliers, manufacturers and distributors in the form of a network. One of the generalizable fields of the green supply chain network is the aquatic processing industry as one of the most important food industries that has paid less attention to optimize its supply chain in order to provide environmental benefits. In recent decades, the demand for food has increased more than the capacity to provide resources for it. Hence, the traditional food supply chain can no longer effectively manage demand. The increase in world population, globalization, global warming, drought and groundwater crisis in recent years have led to the loss of natural resources needed for animal husbandry and the reduction of marine reserves in Iran as well as in other Middle Eastern countries. The expansion of aquaculture farms has not only contributed to the development of sustainable food in the country, but has also been very effective in preserving endangered species. The aquaculture industry has grown significantly in recent decades. In this industry, green supply chain network design seems to be critical for aquatic processing.
Methodology
This study is a descriptive research and applied one in terms of purpose. In this research, after examining the theoretical foundations and experimental background, the network design was proposed. The aquatic supply network was designed in three levels, for four farms, three factories, and two customers. The first level includes aquaculture farms. The second level consists of models of aquatic processing factories. The third level includes customer networks. Of course, other levels of the aquaculture supply chain, i.e. retailers, can also be considered in network design. Then the appropriate mathematical model was formulated and validated with a case study. LP-metric method was used to solve this model. The GAMS software was used in this study.
Findings
In this research, the network of green aquatic management has been designed to achieve the goals of minimizing costs and carbon dioxide emissions and maximizing the capacity of units at three levels for four farms, three factories, and two customers. In this research, after drawing the network of the problem and explaining the mathematical model, it was solved using the comprehensive criterion method with p equal to 1, 2, and 3.
The value of the objective function was calculated with p equal to 0.09. By increasing the value of p, it became clear that there is no distance between the values of the objective functions and the ideal values. Then, the value of decision and binary variables was calculated. The first factory has the highest aquatic receiving capacity from the second, third and fourth farms.
Discussion and Conclusion
In order to achieve the goals with an emphasis on reducing the carbon footprint, the first factory should process the third product, the second factory should process all three types of products, and the third factory should process the second product. In this research, certainty is considered for the parameters. If the surrounding environment is very dynamic, this turbulence can increase the uncertainty of model parameters. Therefore, it is suggested to solve the research model assuming uncertainty in the parameters in other researches. In this research, the same weight has been considered for three purposes.
In this study, it is assumed that the transportation cost between nodes depends only on the distance. It is important to note that the cost of transportation between two points can be affected by various factors. Therefore, it is suggested to pay attention to these factors in other researches. Using the research model can minimize the total costs in the aquaculture network and maximize the capacity of using the components of the entire chain, bringing the environmental destruction to the lowest level. Therefore, it is suggested to use this model. One of the factors affecting the production and emission of carbon is the number of car trips. In other words, the lower the number of trips (carrying times), the lower the emissions. It is suggested managers to use a means of transportation with a higher capacity. Timely servicing of goods transport vehicles can also be effective in carbon emissions. It is recommended to periodically repair the car. In the chain under study, most of the cars were worn out and without fuel consumption reduction technology. It is suggested to replace the old vehicles carrying goods with modern and high-tech vehicles. It is recommended to use gas-fueled vehicles for transporting goods.
Dr Mozhgan Moallemi, Dr Yeganeh Moosavi Jahromi, Dr Alireza ُsharif Moghadasi, Maryam Ramezani,
Volume 23, Issue 2 (5-2023)
Volume 23, Issue 2 (5-2023)
Abstract
Aim and Introduction
Internal and external economic crises and shocks are inevitable in different countries. Many countries are unable to resist economic crises and witnessed undesirable economic events. On the other hand, some countries are highly resilient to domestic and foreign economic crises. The single-product countries are more vulnerable to economic crises than other countries. Resilience of the economy can help move the economy towards sustainable development.
Sustainable development is a development that meets the current human needs without harming the capabilities of the future generations to meet their needs. For sustainable development, four dimensions including governance, economic, environmental and social dimensions are considered. Analyzing the growth history of countries reveals the fact that international trade has been the engine of economic prosperity and expansion of most advanced and developing societies. In order to achieve sustainable development, it is necessary to have trade relations with other countries of the world.
Also, the country's distance from international trade centers due to specific geographical and political conditions will be an obstacle to the development of the economy. In this way, the peripheral dimension is proposed as the fifth dimension of sustainable development to show the political and geographical isolation of the country. In this article, first, the dimensions of sustainable development and its subgroup variables are determined. Then the impact of sustainable development dimensions on the state of economic vulnerability and resilience of different countries are analyzed. The statistical sample includes two groups of countries including G7 member countries and MENA countries. This study investigates the state of vulnerability and resilience (VR) of these two groups during 2017-2020.
Methodology
In this article, Graph theory and Tarjan's algorithm are used to analyze the relationships within the network of variables influencing sustainable development and to examine the relationship between these variables and economic vulnerability and resilience. Tarjan's algorithm is looking for a strongly connected graph that can identify the fundamental variables affecting economic vulnerability and resilience and finally determine the maximal graph. The final output of Tarjan's algorithm is n* variables for measuring VR. Tarjan's algorithm divides the variables into two general parts; The first group of variables that causes vulnerability and resilience and the second group of variables that is created as a result of resilience and vulnerability. The initial set of variables in the dimensions of sustainable development includes economic, social, environmental, governance and peripheral dimensions. After identifying the relationships between the 43 variables presented, a graph is drawn that expresses the relationships between the desired variables.
Findings
The results of the algorithm reveal the fact that the resilience of the model is due to the economic and governance dimensions. If the "economic" or the "governance” dimension are specifically removed, the capacity of the directed graph which is resilient to the strongly connected feature will definitely be lost. Since governance and economic dimensions directly affect other dimensions, they are called as control dimensions. On the other hand, social, environmental and peripheral dimensions are considered as contingent dimensions.
Therefore, contingent dimensions are directly dependent and influenced by control dimensions. In this research, the Net Vulnerability and Resilience Index (NVRI) is separated in all dimensions and calculated in the range of -1 and 1. The NVRI time series is shown during the period and based on the sample countries. The results indicate that in all periods, the status of the NVRI index of the G7 countries was better than the MENA countries, and all the G7 members had resilient economies.
Discussion and Conclusion
According to the index calculations, the countries are classified into four states of uncontrolled vulnerable, limited vulnerable, unstable resilient and sustainable resilient. The G7 countries are sustainable and resilient, which means that in these countries, resilience has surpassed vulnerability. The countries of Oman, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Occupied Palestine and Bahrain from the MENA group are also sustainable and resilient.
The main strength of MENA countries, which are in the group of sustainable resilient, is focused on the peripheral dimension and how these countries interact with the global economy. Among these countries, the UAE and occupied Palestine have a more suitable situation. MENA countries are mainly in the pure and uncontrolled vulnerable group. The governance dimension and then the economic dimension are the important factors of the vulnerability of these countries.
The temporal analysis of the index for the selected countries shows that the majority of the countries that are in the sustainable resilient group did not change their situation during the period under review. Iran is an uncontrolled vulnerable during the years 2017-2020, and in all periods, the index in governance and economic dimensions has been negative and vulnerability is more than resilience.
The analysis of the NVRI index examines the strengths and weaknesses of MENA and G7 countries with a sustainable development approach. It helps the policymakers to get strategic suggestions to improve the situation in weaker countries by following the example of the countries that have a better VR state. The goal of quantifying the state of vulnerability and resilience is to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth in accordance with international programs.
Keywords: Economic Vulnerability and Resilience, Sustainable Development, Graph Theory, Tarjan Algorithm, Composite Index
JEL Classification: C02, C60, O10
Internal and external economic crises and shocks are inevitable in different countries. Many countries are unable to resist economic crises and witnessed undesirable economic events. On the other hand, some countries are highly resilient to domestic and foreign economic crises. The single-product countries are more vulnerable to economic crises than other countries. Resilience of the economy can help move the economy towards sustainable development.
Sustainable development is a development that meets the current human needs without harming the capabilities of the future generations to meet their needs. For sustainable development, four dimensions including governance, economic, environmental and social dimensions are considered. Analyzing the growth history of countries reveals the fact that international trade has been the engine of economic prosperity and expansion of most advanced and developing societies. In order to achieve sustainable development, it is necessary to have trade relations with other countries of the world.
Also, the country's distance from international trade centers due to specific geographical and political conditions will be an obstacle to the development of the economy. In this way, the peripheral dimension is proposed as the fifth dimension of sustainable development to show the political and geographical isolation of the country. In this article, first, the dimensions of sustainable development and its subgroup variables are determined. Then the impact of sustainable development dimensions on the state of economic vulnerability and resilience of different countries are analyzed. The statistical sample includes two groups of countries including G7 member countries and MENA countries. This study investigates the state of vulnerability and resilience (VR) of these two groups during 2017-2020.
Methodology
In this article, Graph theory and Tarjan's algorithm are used to analyze the relationships within the network of variables influencing sustainable development and to examine the relationship between these variables and economic vulnerability and resilience. Tarjan's algorithm is looking for a strongly connected graph that can identify the fundamental variables affecting economic vulnerability and resilience and finally determine the maximal graph. The final output of Tarjan's algorithm is n* variables for measuring VR. Tarjan's algorithm divides the variables into two general parts; The first group of variables that causes vulnerability and resilience and the second group of variables that is created as a result of resilience and vulnerability. The initial set of variables in the dimensions of sustainable development includes economic, social, environmental, governance and peripheral dimensions. After identifying the relationships between the 43 variables presented, a graph is drawn that expresses the relationships between the desired variables.
Findings
The results of the algorithm reveal the fact that the resilience of the model is due to the economic and governance dimensions. If the "economic" or the "governance” dimension are specifically removed, the capacity of the directed graph which is resilient to the strongly connected feature will definitely be lost. Since governance and economic dimensions directly affect other dimensions, they are called as control dimensions. On the other hand, social, environmental and peripheral dimensions are considered as contingent dimensions.
Therefore, contingent dimensions are directly dependent and influenced by control dimensions. In this research, the Net Vulnerability and Resilience Index (NVRI) is separated in all dimensions and calculated in the range of -1 and 1. The NVRI time series is shown during the period and based on the sample countries. The results indicate that in all periods, the status of the NVRI index of the G7 countries was better than the MENA countries, and all the G7 members had resilient economies.
Discussion and Conclusion
According to the index calculations, the countries are classified into four states of uncontrolled vulnerable, limited vulnerable, unstable resilient and sustainable resilient. The G7 countries are sustainable and resilient, which means that in these countries, resilience has surpassed vulnerability. The countries of Oman, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Occupied Palestine and Bahrain from the MENA group are also sustainable and resilient.
The main strength of MENA countries, which are in the group of sustainable resilient, is focused on the peripheral dimension and how these countries interact with the global economy. Among these countries, the UAE and occupied Palestine have a more suitable situation. MENA countries are mainly in the pure and uncontrolled vulnerable group. The governance dimension and then the economic dimension are the important factors of the vulnerability of these countries.
The temporal analysis of the index for the selected countries shows that the majority of the countries that are in the sustainable resilient group did not change their situation during the period under review. Iran is an uncontrolled vulnerable during the years 2017-2020, and in all periods, the index in governance and economic dimensions has been negative and vulnerability is more than resilience.
The analysis of the NVRI index examines the strengths and weaknesses of MENA and G7 countries with a sustainable development approach. It helps the policymakers to get strategic suggestions to improve the situation in weaker countries by following the example of the countries that have a better VR state. The goal of quantifying the state of vulnerability and resilience is to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth in accordance with international programs.
Keywords: Economic Vulnerability and Resilience, Sustainable Development, Graph Theory, Tarjan Algorithm, Composite Index
JEL Classification: C02, C60, O10