Volume 12, Issue 3 (2012)
QJER 2012, 12(3): 191-210 |
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Mojarad I, Karbasi A R. Nonlinearity Behaviors in Relationship between Economic Growth and Export in Caspian Sea Border Countries. QJER 2012; 12 (3) :191-210
URL: http://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-2463-en.html
URL: http://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-2463-en.html
1- Ph.D. Student of Agricultural Economics, University of Zabol
2- Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad.
2- Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad.
Abstract: (7793 Views)
The assumption of a linear relationship between export and economic growth in previous investigations may lead to invalid inference if the actual relationship is nonlinear. In present study the relationship between export and economic growth in economies of Caspian Sea border countries (Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan) is explored with emphasis on the effect of nonlinearities on the causal relationships. Results of study show that nonlinearities exist in the dynamic relationship between exports and GDP growth. Nonlinear smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model results suggest that nonlinear Granger causality flows from exports to output growth and vice versa. Predictive accuracy tests further confirm the appropriateness of the nonlinear models over the linear model specification.
Keywords: economic growth, Export, Nonlinear smooth transition model, Granger Causality, Caspian Sea border countries
Received: 2011/01/7 | Revised: 2012/09/24 | Accepted: 2011/12/4 | Published: 2012/09/24
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