دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 2 2026 06 22 The Impact of Banking System Liquidity Creation on Monetary Policy Tools: Evidence from the GMM-SYS Model تحلیل اثر پذیری خلق نقدینگی نظام بانکی متاثر از تامین مالی متنوع نسبت به تغییرات سیاست های پولی: شواهدی از رویکرد GMM-SYS 1 29 28265 10.48311/ecor.2026.28265 FA ندا حیدری دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران امیر جباری استادیار و عضو هیات علمی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران حمید نصیری دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه تبریز، آذربایجان شرقی،ایران 0009-0008-5617-7899 Journal Article 2025 02 11 Abstract This study investigates the impact of banking system liquidity creation on monetary policy tools in Iran. Using panel data from 17 state-owned and private banks over the period 2008–2023 and applying the System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) approach, we find that higher reserve requirements reduce liquidity creation, whereas banks’ indebtedness to the central bank increases it. Market concentration negatively affects liquidity creation, while bank size, inflation, and economic growth exert positive effects. The results suggest that central bank policies, market structure, and macroeconomic conditions jointly influence banks’ capacity to create liquidity Purpose/Aims: This study examines the impact of banking system liquidity creation on the effectiveness of monetary policy tools in Iran. It focuses on how banks’ financing structures, market concentration, and macroeconomic factors influence liquidity generation. Methodology & Framework: Using panel data from 17 active banks (state-owned and private) over the period 2008–2023, the System GMM was employed to estimate the dynamic effects of reserve requirements and banks’ indebtedness to the central bank on liquidity creation. Market concentration was measured using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI). Findings: The results indicate that higher reserve requirements reduce banks’ liquidity creation, whereas greater indebtedness to the central bank increases it. Market concentration has a negative effect on liquidity creation. Inflation, economic growth, and bank size positively influence liquidity generation, while exchange rate fluctuations exert a negative effect. Discussion: Banks with diversified financing structures exhibit lower sensitivity to central bank policies. Larger banks are able to generate more liquidity due to greater financial resources. The policy implications suggest that maintaining balanced reserve ratios, reducing market concentration, stabilizing exchange rates, and closely monitoring macroeconomic conditions can enhance banks’ ability to create liquidity. Conclusion & Implications: This study demonstrates that central bank monetary policy tools significantly influence banks’ liquidity creation. The legal reserve ratio reduces liquidity by limiting banks’ resources available for lending and investment, whereas banks’ debt to the central bank positively affects liquidity, as banks rely on central bank facilities to meet their funding needs. Market concentration, measured by the HHI, negatively impacts liquidity creation, as highly concentrated markets limit competition and reduce banks’ capacity to extend loans and diversify financial products. Macroeconomic factors such as inflation and economic growth also play important roles. Inflation and economic growth enhance liquidity creation by increasing loan demand, deposit mobilization, and banks’ financial capacity. Larger banks are better able to generate liquidity due to greater capital strength and access to funding facilities, whereas exchange rate volatility has a negative effect by increasing economic uncertainty and financing costs. The policy implications suggest that the central bank should actively monitor banks’ indebtedness, maintain balanced reserve ratios, and implement measures to reduce market concentration and promote competition. Controlling inflation and stabilizing exchange rates can further support banks’ capacity to create liquidity. Overall, effective liquidity creation depends on the interaction among monetary policy, banking market structure, and macroeconomic conditions سیاست‌های پولی یکی از ابزارهای کلیدی بانک مرکزی برای تنظیم نقدینگی، کنترل تورم و مدیریت نوسانات اقتصادی است. این سیاست از طریق تغییر در نرخ ذخیره قانونی، نرخ بدهی بانک‌ها به بانک مرکزی، نرخ بهره بین‌بانکی و سایر ابزارهای تنظیمی، بر توان بانک‌ها در خلق نقدینگی تأثیر می‌گذارد. یکی از مهم ترین متغیرهای که می‌تواند نقش مهمی در انتقال سیاست‌های پولی بر خلق نقدینگی بخش بانکی داشته باشد، الگوی تأمین مالی است. به‌طوری‌که، بانک‌هایی که دارای دارایی‌های نقدشونده بیشتری هستند، توان بالاتری در خلق نقدینگی دارند، در حالی‌که بانک‌هایی با دارایی‌های غیرنقدی و پرریسک، انعطاف‌پذیری کمتری در پاسخ به سیاست‌های پولی دارند. از این رو، هدف تحقیق بررسی نحوه تاثیر پذیری خلق نقدینگی بانکی با تأمین مالی متنوع از سیاست‌های پولی بانک مرکزی است. نمونه 17 تایی از بانک‌های فعال در نظام بانکی ایران برای بازه زمانی 1387-1402 به صورت داده‌های پانل انتخاب شدند که شامل بانک‌های دولتی و غیردولتی می‌باشند. برای تخمین مدل از رویکرد گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته سیستمی (GMM-SYS) استفاده شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که نرخ ذخیره قانونی بانک‌ها رابطه منفی با خلق نقدینگی بانک‌ها داشته در حالی که نرخ بدهی بانک‌ها به بانک مرکزی تاثیر مثبت بر خلق نقدینگی بانک‌ها داشته است. شاخص هرفیندال- هیرشمن به عنوان شاخص معرف تأمین مالی بانک نیز تاثیر منفی بر خلق نقدینگی بانک‌ها دارد. این امر بیان می‌کند بانک با تأمین مالی متنوع در هنگام خلق نقدینگی حساسیت کمتری نسبت به تغییرات سیاست های پولی بانک مرکزی دارند.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_28265_1a7da998ded68c09b6fb68853539e59a.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 2 2026 06 22 Financial Inclusion and Innovation: A Nonlinear Analysis of Their Impact on Economic Growth in Selected Developing Countries شمول مالی و نوآوری: تحلیل غیرخطی اثر آن‌ها بر رشد اقتصادی در منتخبی از کشورهای در حال توسعه 31 69 28266 10.48311/ecor.2026.28266 FA مریم زینی وند گروه اقتصاد، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی،اراک، ایران مریم شریف نژاد گروه اقتصاد، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک،ایران غلامعلی حاجی گروه اقتصاد، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک،ایران Journal Article 2025 04 30 Abstract This study examines the impact of financial inclusion on the relationship between innovation and economic growth in 53 developing countries over the period 2004–2023. Given the role of financial inclusion in facilitating access to financial resources and promoting innovation, as well as the strong link between these variables and sustainable economic growth, this study seeks to better understand their interactive effects in selected developing countries. For this purpose, the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model is employed. The estimation results indicate a nonlinear relationship among the variables under investigation. The threshold value of the transition variable (the logarithm of the financial inclusion index) is estimated at 4.3035, with a slope parameter of 19.9284. The findings indicate that financial inclusion and innovation exert positive and statistically significant effects on economic growth in both regimes, namely, at low and high levels of financial inclusion. Urbanization has a negative and significant impact on economic growth in the first regime; however, after crossing the threshold and entering the second regime, this effect diminishes but remains negative. The ratio of non-performing loans to gross loans, used as an indicator of financial stability, has a positive effect on economic growth in the first regime, but its impact gradually weakens and becomes negative in the second regime. Inflation negatively affects economic growth in both regimes. Based on these findings, policies aimed at improving financial inclusion, supporting innovation, controlling inflation, and enhancing financial stability should be prioritized Purpose/Aims: Digital financial inclusion overcomes the limitations of physical borders through the cross-border integration of digital technologies and financial services, enabling the provision of financial services across regions. On the one hand, digital financial inclusion substantially reduces transportation and transaction costs; on the other hand, it effectively lowers barriers to access and expands the coverage of financial services, allowing a larger share of the population to benefit from them. By leveraging digital advantages, digital financial inclusion helps address information asymmetry, expands the service capacity of financial markets, and improves the provision of finance to small and micro enterprises as well as individuals, thereby enabling broader access to financial services at lower costs (Wang et al., 2022). Therefore, considering the importance of financial inclusion for economic growth and the nonlinear relationship among financial inclusion, innovation, and economic growth, this study employs the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model, which is one of the most prominent regime-switching models. The PSTR model is used to analyze the nonlinear and indirect effects of financial inclusion on the relationship between innovation and economic growth over the period 2004–2023. In this regard, the theoretical foundations related to the topic are first examined, followed by a review of relevant empirical studies. Subsequently, the proposed model is estimated and analyzed, and the conclusions are presented. Methodology & Framework: The PSTR approach has been shown to effectively capture different types of nonlinearities, including sharp or smooth transitions between regimes, without requiring prior information about structural changes in the transition variable. Moreover, the PSTR model addresses key econometric issues such as heterogeneity and time variability by allowing parameters to vary smoothly across cross-sectional units and over time (Wang & Wei, 2019). Accordingly, the PSTR approach is particularly suitable for modeling heterogeneous effects arising from different levels of financial inclusion when examining its impact on the relationship between innovation and economic growth in selected developing countries. The present study aims to investigate the indirect and threshold effects of financial inclusion on the relationship between innovation and economic growth in 53 developing countries over the period 2004–2023, using a nonlinear econometric framework based on the PSTR technique. The general model, adapted from the studies of Timer & Raza (2023), Karim et al. (2022), Feng et al. (2023), Wang et al. (2022), and My Thi Thi et al. (2024), is specified as follows: LGDPP=F (LINCLUS, LINNO, LNONPER, INF, UPG, LGOVR) (7) where LGDPP denotes economic growth; LINCLUS represents the financial inclusion index; LINNO denotes the innovation index; LNONPER represents the financial stability index (measured as the ratio of non-performing loans to gross loans); INF denotes the inflation rate; LGOVR represents government effectiveness (governance index); and UPG denotes urbanization growth. Findings: To examine the stationarity properties of the variables, the Levine–Lin–Chu (LLC) unit root test is employed. The LLC test results, reported in Table 2, indicate that all variables are stationary in levels at the 1% significance level. The findings show that, in both regimes—low and high levels of financial inclusion—the effect of financial inclusion on economic growth in developing countries is positive and statistically significant. This result is consistent with the findings of Rezazadeh et al. (2023), Karim et al. (2022), Feng et al. (2023), Wang et al. (2022), and theoretical expectations. The results further indicate that innovation has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in both regimes, which is consistent with the findings of Nasiri-Aghdam et al. (2011), Wang et al. (2022), and My Thi Thi et al. (2024), as well as with theoretical foundations. Discussion: The results also indicate that, in the first regime characterized by low levels of financial inclusion, inflation has a negative effect on economic growth in developing countries. This negative effect intensifies after the threshold is crossed and the second regime is entered, which is consistent with theoretical expectations. In the first regime, urbanization growth has a negative and significant impact on economic growth in developing countries. After crossing the threshold and entering the second regime, this negative effect diminishes but remains statistically significant. This finding is consistent with the results reported by My Thi Thi et al. (2024) and with theoretical considerations. In the first regime, the effect of the ratio of non-performing loans to gross loans (financial stability index) on economic growth is positive but statistically insignificant. After crossing the threshold and entering the second regime, this effect decreases and becomes negative. These findings are consistent with theoretical expectations for developing countries, although they differ from the results reported by Zhang et al. (2022), which focus on developed economies. Finally, the results indicate that government effectiveness (governance index) has a positive effect on economic growth in the first regime, and although this effect decreases after crossing the threshold and entering the second regime, it remains positive. This finding is consistent with the results of My Thi Thi et al. (2024). Conclusion: This study investigates the impact of financial inclusion on the relationship between innovation and economic growth in 53 developing countries over the period 2004–2023. Given the role of financial inclusion in facilitating access to financial resources and promoting innovation, as well as its close connection with sustainable economic growth, the study seeks to provide a deeper understanding of the interactive effects of these variables in developing economies. Using the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model, the results reveal a nonlinear relationship among the variables examined. The estimated threshold value of the transition variable (logarithm of the financial inclusion index) is 4.3035, with a slope parameter of 19.9284. The findings indicate that financial inclusion and innovation have positive and statistically significant effects on economic growth in both regimes, corresponding to low and high levels of financial inclusion. Urbanization negatively affects economic growth in the first regime, and although this effect weakens after the threshold is crossed, it remains negative in the second regime. The ratio of non-performing loans to gross loans has a positive effect on economic growth in the first regime, but its impact diminishes and becomes negative in the second regime. Inflation negatively affects economic growth in both regimes. Based on these findings, policies aimed at enhancing financial inclusion, supporting innovation, controlling inflation, and strengthening financial stability should be given priority. هدف از این مطالعه، بررسی تأثیر شمول مالی بر ارتباط بین نوآوری و رشد اقتصادی در 53 کشور درحال‌توسعه، طی دوره زمانی 2023-2004 است. با توجه به نقش شمول مالی در تسهیل دسترسی به منابع مالی و ارتقاء نوآوری، همچنین ارتباط عمیق این دو متغیر با رشد اقتصاد پایدار، در مطالعه حاضر، هدف، درک بهتر چگونگی تأثیرات متقابل این متغیرها در کشورهای درحال‌توسعه منتخب است. به این منظور، از مدل رگرسیونی انتقال ملایم پانلی استفاده شده است. نتایج برآورد، حاکی از آن است که یک رابطه غیرخطی بین متغیرهای مورد مطالعه وجود دارد. مقدار آستانه‌ای متغیر انتقال (لگاریتم شاخص‌های شمول مالی) برابر 3035/4 و سرعت انتقال 9284/19 حاصل گردید. نتایج این تحقیق، گویای این حقیقت است که شمول مالی و نوآوری در هر دو رژیم (یعنی سطح پایین و بالای شمول مالی)، اثر مثبت و معنی‌دار بر رشد اقتصادی دارند. شهرنشینی، در رژیم اول، دارای تأثیر منفی و معنی‌دار بر رشد اقتصادی بوده اما با عبور از حد آستانه‌ای و در رژیم دوم، این تأثیر کاهش می‌یابد اما همچنان منفی است. نسبت وام‌های غیرجاری به وام‌های ناخالص (شاخص ثبات مالی) در رژیم اول، تأثیر مثبت بر رشد اقتصادی دارد اما در رژیم دوم،به تدریج میزان اثرگذاری آن کاهش یافته و منفی شده است. تورم در هر دو رژیم، اثر منفی بر رشد اقتصادی دارد. با توجه به نتایج، توصیه میگردد، بهبود شمول مالی، حمایت از نوآوری، کنترل تورم و افزایش ثبات مالی در اولویت سیاستهای اقتصادی قرار گیرد.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_28266_2a79b29682327231d85216a98c98687d.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 2 2026 06 22 Analyzing the Effects of Entrepreneurial Attitudes and Science and Technology Parks on Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises: A Quantile Approach With an Emphasis on Corruption Control تحلیل اثرات نگرش‌های کارآفرینانه و پارک‌های علم و فناوری بر ارزش افزوده صنایع کوچک و متوسط با تأکید بر کنترل فساد (رویکرد کوانتایل) 71 105 28267 10.48311/ecor.2026.28267 FA زهرا احمدی دانشجوی دکتری، گروه علوم اقتصادی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران سعید دائی کریم زاده دانشیار گروه علوم اقتصادی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران سارا قبادی استادیار گروه علوم اقتصادی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران Journal Article 2025 05 23 Abstract This paper aims to analyze the effects of entrepreneurial attitudes and science and technology parks on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), with an emphasis on corruption control in Iran during the period 2001–2023, using the quantile method. The results show that the number of science and technology parks in quantiles 0.2–0.9 has a positive and increasing effect, entrepreneurial attitudes in quantiles 0.6–0.9 have a positive but decreasing effect, and the corruption control index in quantiles 0.2–0.9 has a positive and increasing effect on the value added of SMEs. Considering the interactive effects of corruption control with science and technology parks and entrepreneurial attitudes, it is found that in quantiles 0.2–0.9, until the corruption control index reaches the thresholds of 0.372, 0.372, 0.408, 0.443, 0.823, 0.823, and 0.823, respectively, increases in corruption control intensify the positive effect of science and technology parks on the value added of SMEs; however, beyond these thresholds, the positive effect decreases. In addition, in quantiles 0.6–0.9, when the corruption control index does not reach the thresholds of 0.132, 0.137, 0.090, and 0.09, respectively, increases in corruption control lead to an intensification of the positive effect of entrepreneurial attitudes, followed by a reduction in their positive effect on the value added of SMEs. The results of the Wald symmetry test also indicate that the impact of the independent variables on the value added of SMEs across different quantiles is asymmetrical. Purpose/Aims: SMEs, while being innovative and creative, possess high flexibility and the ability to adapt to market changes and customer preferences. As a result, they enjoy significant comparative advantages in many sectors relative to large industries and can respond more quickly to accelerating global developments. SMEs, through their unique and diverse combinations of human and financial resources and social support, are considered among the most effective factors in supporting the flow of entrepreneurship. Accordingly, the presence of entrepreneurial behaviors and attitudes in these enterprises can accelerate their growth and development while intensifying entrepreneurial activity. Entrepreneurial attitudes, by reshaping business owners’ perspectives toward innovation, increase their willingness to test new methods and systems. Another factor that can serve as a catalyst for SME development is science and technology parks, which function as centers for the establishment and professional presence of small and medium-sized firms, industrial research and development units, and research institutions. On the other hand, governments play a crucial role in shaping entrepreneurial attitudes and creating science and technology parks; therefore, the presence of corruption within government institutions can influence the impact of entrepreneurial tendencies and science and technology parks on SME performance. Corruption can also affect SME performance by shaping entrepreneurial behavior and activities. In some countries, corruption facilitates entrepreneurial activities and allows the entrepreneurial sector to flourish, whereas in others it hinders entrepreneurship by undermining fair competition. Moreover, given that the primary objective of establishing science and technology parks is to encourage cooperation among universities, SMEs, and large industries, corruption can influence science and technology parks—and consequently SME performance—through the innovation channel. Traditional institutional economics theory maintains that corruption erodes the foundations of innovation by increasing transaction costs and suppressing research and development, while some economists argue that corruption may stimulate innovation by accelerating licensing processes. The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of entrepreneurial attitudes and science and technology parks on the value added of SMEs, with an emphasis on corruption control. Methodology & Framework: This study examines the effects of entrepreneurial attitudes and science and technology parks on the value added of SMEs in Iran during the period 2001–2023 using the quantile method. In addition, the role of corruption control in shaping the impact of entrepreneurial attitudes and science and technology parks on SME value added is also investigated. Findings: The results indicate that the number of science and technology parks in quantiles 0.2 –0.9 has a positive and increasing effect on the value added of SMEs. Entrepreneurial attitudes in quantiles 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, and 0.9 exert a positive but decreasing effect, while the corruption control index in quantiles 0.2–0.9 has a positive and increasing effect. Considering the interactive effects of corruption control with science and technology parks and entrepreneurial attitudes, it is found that in quantiles 0.2–0.9, until the corruption control index reaches the thresholds of 0.372, 0.372, 0.408, 0.443, 0.823, 0.823, and 0.823, respectively, increases in corruption control intensify the positive effect of science and technology parks on SME value added; however, beyond these thresholds, the positive effect diminishes. Conversely, in quantiles 0.6–0.9, when the corruption control index does not reach the thresholds of 0.132, 0.137, 0.090, and 0.09, respectively, increases in corruption control initially intensify the positive effect of entrepreneurial attitudes, followed by a decline in their positive effect on SME value added. The Wald symmetry test results further indicate that the effects of the independent variables on SME value added vary asymmetrically across quantiles. Discussion: According to traditional economic theory, when corruption weakens the competitive environment, its control can foster entrepreneurial development and, consequently, SME growth, as SMEs typically emerge from entrepreneurial activities. The creation of innovative ideas by entrepreneurs plays a vital role in SME development by introducing new products and strengthening firms’ capacity to manage risk and overcome existing challenges. Moreover, corruption control—through reducing transaction costs, removing barriers to investment in research and development, and enhancing trust in government institutions and the business environment— creates favorable conditions for innovation. In this context, controlling corruption facilitates the expansion of science and technology parks and, in turn, contributes to stronger SME growth. Conclusion & Implications: Based on the research findings, strengthening entrepreneurial attitudes through the establishment of educational units at the primary and secondary school levels and organizing student visits to entrepreneurial environments and start-up businesses can enhance SME value added. Furthermore, expanding science and technology parks by attracting foreign investors and strengthening collaborative links between domestic and international academic communities can further support SME development. In addition, implementing punitive and incentive-based policies to curb corrupt practices in business-related sectors, along with promoting a culture of meritocracy to support entrepreneurs and innovative ideas, can serve as effective strategies for creating value in SMEs. هدف از نگارش این مقاله، تحلیل اثرات نگرش‌های کارآفرینانه و پارک‌های علم‌ و ‌فناوری بر ارزش افزوده صنایع کوچک و متوسط (SMEs) با تأکید بر کنترل فساد در ایران است. بدین منظور، دوره زمانی 1402-1380 در نظر گرفته و برای تخمین الگوی مقاله از روش کوانتایل استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که تعداد پارک‌های علم و فناوری در کوانتایل‌های 2/0 تا 9/0، اثر مثبت و فزاینده و نگرش کارآفرینانه در کوانتایل‌ها 6/0، 7/0، 8/0 و 9/0، اثر مثبت ولی کاهنده و شاخص کنترل فساد در کوانتایل‌ها 2/0تا 9/0، اثر مثبت و فزاینده بر ارزش افزوده SMEs داشته‌اند. با در نظر گرفتن اثر تعاملی کنترل فساد با پارک‌های علم و فناوری و نگرش‌های کارآفرینانه، مشخص شد که در کوانتایل 2/0 تا 9/0 تا زمانی که شاخص کنترل فساد به حد آستانه 372/0، 372/0، 408/0، 443/0، 823/0، 823/0 و 823/0 نرسیده، افزایش کنترل فساد، منجر به شدت یافتن تأثیر مثبت پارک‌های علم و فناوری بر ارزش افزوده SMEs شده، اما پس از آن، اثر مثبت پارک‌های علم و فناوری بر ارزش افزوده SMEs کاهش یافته ‌است. از طرفی در کوانتایل 6/0 تا 9/0، زمانی که شاخص کنترل فساد به‎ترتیب، به حد آستانه 132/0، 137/0، 090/0 و 09/0 نرسیده، افزایش کنترل فساد، منجر به شدت یافتن تأثیر مثبت نگرش‌های کارآفرینانه بر ارزش افزوده SMEs و پس از آن، به کاهش اثر مثبت نگرش‌های کارآفرینانه بر ارزش افزوده SMEs منجر شده است. نتایج آزمون تقارن والد نیز حاکی از نامتقارن بودن تأثیر متغیرهای مستقل بر ارزش افزوده SMEs در کوانتایل‌های مختلف است.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_28267_81aa5aa1989ff76f8f8e5f467814c499.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 2 2026 06 22 The Real Interest Rate Gap and Its Impact on Economic Growth in Iran: An ARDL Approach شکاف نرخ بهره بانکی واثرات آن بر رشد اقتصادی 107 133 28388 10.48311/ecor.2026.28388 FA سعید ایران پور دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد، واحد فیروزکوه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، فیروزکوه، ایران صالح قویدل دوستکوئی دانشیارگروه اقتصاد، واحد فیروزکوه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، فیروزکوه، ایران 0000-0003-0851-9969 مهدی فتح آبادی دانشیارگروه اقتصاد، واحد فیروزکوه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، فیروزکوه، ایران 0000-0001-5478-9148 میرحسین موسوی دانشیارگروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران 0000-0002-0536-3367 Journal Article 2025 05 25 Abstract The real interest rate, defined as the difference between the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate, plays a fundamental role in shaping saving behavior, investment decisions, and long-term economic growth. In economies characterized by persistent inflation and administratively determined interest rates, a sustained gap between nominal interest rates and inflation may distort financial intermediation and weaken the growth process. Iran represents a prominent case of such an economy, where prolonged periods of high inflation and regulated banking interest rates have frequently resulted in negative real interest rates. This study examines the impact of the real interest rate gap on economic growth in Iran over the period 1991–2023. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework, the analysis captures both short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships between economic growth and key macroeconomic variables, including employment growth, productivity growth, and the real interest rate gap. The findings indicate that a persistent negative real interest rate gap has a statistically significant and adverse effect on economic growth in the long run. This effect operates primarily through weakened incentives for real saving, misallocation of banking resources toward speculative activities, and reduced availability of funds for productive investment. The results underscore the importance of aligning nominal interest rates with inflation dynamics and managing inflation expectations to promote sustainable economic growth and financial stability in Iran. Purpose/Aims: The primary objective of this study is to investigate the impact of the real interest rate gap—defined as the divergence between nominal banking interest rates and inflation—on economic growth in Iran. Specifically, the paper seeks to answer whether sustained negative real interest rates hinder long-term economic growth and through which channels this effect materializes. Given Iran’s long history of inflation volatility and administratively set interest rates, understanding the growth implications of interest rate distortions is of particular relevance for monetary policy design. The study also aims to contribute to the existing literature by providing updated empirical evidence for Iran using a comprehensive time span and a robust econometric framework capable of distinguishing short-run adjustments from long-run effects. Methodology & Framework: This study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approach to examine the relationship between the real interest rate gap and economic growth using annual data for Iran from 1991 to 2023. The ARDL methodology is particularly suitable because it accommodates variables integrated of different orders, I(0) and I(1), and performs well in relatively small samples. Economic growth, measured by the growth rate of real GDP, is modeled as a function of the real interest rate gap, employment growth, capital accumulation, and total factor productivity growth. Unit root tests are conducted to ensure that none of the variables are integrated of order two. The ARDL bounds testing approach is then applied to assess the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship among the variables. Diagnostic tests, including tests for serial correlation, heteroskedasticity, normality of residuals, and parameter stability (CUSUM and CUSUMSQ), are used to validate the robustness of the estimated model. Findings: The empirical results reveal a stable long-run relationship between economic growth and the explanatory variables. Most importantly, the real interest rate gap exhibits a negative and statistically significant impact on economic growth in the long run. Periods characterized by negative real interest rates are associated with lower growth rates, reflecting diminished real saving incentives and constrained financing for productive investment. Employment growth and productivity growth, by contrast, exert positive and significant effects on economic growth, highlighting the importance of labor market conditions and efficiency improvements. The short-run dynamics indicate that the adjustment toward long-run equilibrium is gradual, with deviations corrected over time. The bounds test confirms the presence of cointegration, supporting the existence of a meaningful long-term relationship among the variables. Discussion: The findings suggest that prolonged negative real interest rates distort the allocation of financial resources in Iran’s banking system. When nominal interest rates fail to keep pace with inflation, households and firms are discouraged from holding real savings in the banking sector, while borrowers are incentivized to channel low-cost credit into speculative activities such as real estate, foreign exchange, and gold markets. This misallocation undermines productive investment, weakens capital formation, and ultimately constrains economic growth. The results are consistent with both domestic and international studies emphasizing the adverse growth effects of interest rate distortions and credit misallocation in inflationary environments. At the same time, excessively high positive real interest rates may also suppress growth by increasing borrowing costs, indicating the need for a balanced and credible interest rate policy. Conclusion & Implications: This study provides empirical evidence that the real interest rate gap has been a key factor influencing Iran’s economic growth over the past three decades. Persistent negative real interest rates have reduced real saving, encouraged speculative behavior, and limited the flow of financial resources toward productive investment, thereby dampening long-term growth. From a policy perspective, the results highlight the necessity of coordinating monetary policy with inflation dynamics and managing inflation expectations effectively. Policymakers are advised to avoid prolonged periods of negative real interest rates by adopting a more flexible and transparent interest rate policy framework. Strengthening central bank credibility, improving financial supervision, and enhancing coordination between monetary and fiscal policies are essential steps toward fostering sustainable economic growth and financial stability in Iran. این مقاله به بررسی تأثیر شکاف نرخ بهره واقعی ـ که به‌عنوان تفاوت میان نرخ بهره اسمی و نرخ تورم تعریف می‌شود ـ بر رشد اقتصادی ایران در بازه زمانی ۱۳۷۰ تا ۱۴۰۲ می‌پردازد. نرخ بهره واقعی، یکی از عناصر اساسی در سیاستگذاری پولی به‌شمار می‌رود که از طریق تأثیرگذاری بر انگیزه‌های پس‌انداز و سرمایه‌گذاری می‌تواند مسیر رشد اقتصادی را شکل دهد. برای تحلیل تجربی رابطه میان متغیرها، از مدل خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی (ARDL) استفاده شده است که امکان تفکیک آثار کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت را فراهم می‌کند. یافته‌های حاصل از برآورد مدل، نشان می‌دهد که شکاف منفی یا پایین نرخ بهره واقعی در بلندمدت، اثر منفی و معناداری بر رشد اقتصادی دارد؛ به‌گونه‌ای که با کاهش نرخ بهره واقعی، انگیزه برای پس‌انداز حقیقی کاهش یافته و درنتیجه، منابع مالی لازم برای سرمایه‌گذاری مولد محدود می‌شود. بر این اساس، نتایج پژوهش بر ضرورت هماهنگی میان سیاست‌های پولی و نرخ تورم و نیز مدیریت مؤثر انتظارات تورمی تأکید دارند. در پایان، پیشنهاد می‌شود سیاستگذاران با بازنگری در تعیین نرخ‌های بهره و در نظر گرفتن واقعیت‌های تورمی، بستر مناسبی برای ارتقاء پایداری اقتصادی و تقویت رشد فراهم آورند.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_28388_b59978537754917c2df87b96ac795ef2.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 2 2026 06 22 Modeling the Effects of Economic, Social, and Political Factors on Inflation in the Iranian Economy مدل‌سازی اثرات عوامل اقتصادی، اجتماعی و سیاسی بر تورم در اقتصاد ایران 135 167 28389 10.48311/ecor.2026.28389 FA فرشته کریمی دانشجوی دکتری رشته علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران مرتضی عزتی دانشیار اقتصاد، پژوهشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران فرزین اربابی استادیار اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و حسابداری، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2025 05 01 Abstract from relatively high estimation errors. Consequently, in recent years, research based on Bayesian approaches has expanded considerably. The objective of this study is to model inflation in the Iranian economy under the influence of political, social, and economic variables using advanced econometric methods and to identify the best-performing model. The study period covers the years 2001–2023. In this research, inflation modeling is conducted by incorporating 43 variables affecting inflation across four categories of models: Time-Varying Parameter Dynamic Model Averaging (TVP-DMA), Time-Varying Parameter Dynamic Model Selection (TVP-DMS), Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), and Weighted-Average Least Squares (WALS). The aim is to determine the most appropriate model for explaining inflation among these alternatives. Among the examined models, the WALS model is identified as the most efficient. .Based on the results, 11 variables with the highest impact on inflation are identified, among which the unofficial exchange rate emerges as the most influential factor. Furthermore, the findings indicate that, in explaining inflation in the Iranian economy, economic factors have the greatest explanatory power, followed by political factors and then social factors Purpose/Aims: The complex and dynamic nature of inflation has made it a variable influenced by multiple factors. In the economic literature, economic, social, and political factors are recognized as three main categories that affect the behavior of firms and consumers and ultimately shape the inflation rate through macroeconomic instability, heightened uncertainty, and changing expectations. Among these, developing and emerging countries—particularly economies such as Iran—are more exposed to such effects due to fragile institutional structures and vulnerability to non-economic shocks. In recent decades, Iran has experienced significant political and economic developments, including widespread international sanctions, managerial changes at macroeconomic levels, social crises, and domestic unrest, all of which have imposed multiple shocks on the economy. Accordingly, understanding and analyzing the effects of political, social, and economic factors on inflation in Iran is of particular importance, not only for improving comprehension of the country’s inflationary dynamics but also for designing and implementing effective and sustainable economic policies. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to model inflation in the Iranian economy under the influence of political, social, and economic variables using modern econometric methods and to identify the most appropriate model. Methodology & Framework: This research is applied in nature. Data are collected from the statistical databases of the Central Bank of Iran and the Statistics Center of Iran using documentary methods. The study period spans from 1380 to 1402. After data extraction, the values of the variables are calculated and processed using Microsoft Excel, while MATLAB and R software are employed for statistical analysis and result estimation. The analysis is conducted using Bayesian econometric techniques by introducing 43 variables affecting inflation, grounded in theoretical foundations, within the frameworks of TVP-DMA, TVP-DMS, BMA, and WALS. The objective is to identify the most suitable model for explaining inflation among these alternatives. Findings: Among the aforementioned models, the WALS model is identified as the most efficient. Based on the results, 11 variables with the highest impact on inflation are determined. These variables include the unofficial exchange rate, sanctions, liquidity, output gap, net debt of banks to the central bank, budget deficit, oil revenues, interest rate, current government expenditures, human capital index, and corruption. Among these factors, the unofficial exchange rate is identified as the most significant determinant of inflation. The results further indicate that economic factors account for the largest share in explaining inflation, followed by political factors and, subsequently, social factors. Discussion: The findings of this study indicate that one of the most important determinants of inflation in Iran is the exchange rate. Statistical evidence from 2018 onward strongly confirms this relationship. Given the heavy dependence of domestic production on imported raw materials and intermediate goods, exchange rate shocks are rapidly transmitted to producer prices. Consequently, increases in the exchange rate lead to higher producer price inflation. The estimated coefficient for sanctions suggests that weak political and diplomatic relations at the global level, combined with the limited capacity of domestic production to respond to demand, have imposed dual pressure on inflation. This finding highlights the structural vulnerability of the Iranian economy to external shocks. Liquidity growth is identified as the third key determinant of inflation. Excessive liquidity growth, when not accompanied by corresponding real output growth, intensifies inflationary pressures. Similarly, the positive effect of oil revenues on inflation indicates that inflows of oil income, in the absence of sufficient productive capacity to absorb them, are inherently inflationary. The positive relationship between the output gap and inflation implies an inverse relationship between economic growth and inflation. Empirical evidence from Iran confirms that periods of higher economic growth are associated with lower inflation, whereas economic stagnation coincides with rising inflation. This finding is closely aligned with economic theory. The study also identifies a positive effect of the budget deficit on inflation. In Iran, budget deficits are frequently financed through borrowing from the banking system or monetary expansion, both of which increase liquidity and contribute to inflation through multiple channels. Another important result is the positive effect of interest rates on inflation. Although increases in interest rates are typically employed to curb inflation by encouraging savings and reducing liquidity, evidence from recent years indicates that inflation has intensified alongside rising interest rates. This apparent paradox can be explained by the prevalence of negative real interest rates in Iran, which limits their effectiveness in attracting deposits and controlling liquidity. Finally, the results demonstrate that corruption has a positive effect on inflation. Corruption undermines the effectiveness of monetary policy, increases production costs, distorts price mechanisms, and encourages rent-seeking behavior. In contrast, human capital exhibits a negative relationship with inflation. A decline in human capital reduces efficiency, increases social and production costs, weakens governance quality, and indirectly fosters corruption, all of which contribute to higher inflation. Conclusion & Implications: Overall, the findings suggest that inflation in Iran is a multidimensional phenomenon driven by structural, monetary, fiscal, and institutional factors. Exchange rate instability, international sanctions, excessive liquidity growth, dependence on oil revenues, persistent budget deficits, ineffective interest rate policies, corruption, and weak human capital all play significant roles in fueling inflation. From a policy perspective, controlling inflation requires more than short-term monetary tightening. Stabilizing the exchange rate, reducing dependence on imported inputs, reforming fiscal discipline to limit budget deficits, and avoiding inflationary financing methods are essential. Moreover, oil revenues should be managed in a way that enhances productive capacity rather than expanding liquidity. The results also underscore the importance of supply-side policies aimed at promoting economic growth, improving productivity, and expanding domestic production capacity. Strengthening human capital, reducing corruption, and improving institutional quality can lower costs, enhance policy effectiveness, and contribute to long-term price stability. In sum, sustainable inflation control in Iran necessitates coordinated macroeconomic, structural, and institutional reforms rather than isolated policy interventions. مدل‌سازی‌های مبتنی بر رگرسیون خطی، به علت فروض رگرسیونی متعدد، اغلب با واقعیت انطباق دقیق ندارد. بر این پایه در سال‌های اخیر، پژوهش‌هایی مبتنی بر داده‌های گسترده و رویکردهای آماری، توسعه یافته‌اند. هدف از این بررسی، مدل‌سازی تورم در اقتصاد ایران تحت تأثیر متغیرهای سیاسی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی با روش‌های نوین و ارائه بهترین مدل است. دوره زمانی پژوهش سال‌های 1380 تا 1402 می‌باشد. در این پژوهش، مدل‌سازی با وارد کردن 43 متغیر مؤثر بر تورم در 4 دسته مدل‌های میانگین‌گیری متحرک پویا (TVP-DMA)، میانگین‌گیری انتخابی متحرک پویا (TVP-DMS)، میانگین‌گیری بیزین (BA) و میانگین‌گیری وزنی حداقل مربعات (WALS) انجام شده است تا بهترین مدل توضیح دهنده تورم از میان این مدل‌ها شناسایی شود. از میان مدل‌های یاد شده، مدل میانگین‌گیری وزنی حداقل مربعات، به عنوان کاراترین مدل تعیین شد. بر اساس نتایج، 11 متغیر با بالاترین سطح اثرگذاری بر تورم شناسایی شدند که در بین آن‌ها، نرخ ارز غیررسمی به عنوان مهم‌ترین عامل مؤثر بر تورم شناسایی شد. همچنین نتایج نشان می‌دهد، در مدل تورم اقتصاد ایران، به‎ترتیب، عوامل اقتصادی، عوامل سیاسی و عوامل اجتماعی، سهم بیشتری در توضیح دهندگی مدل دارند.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_28389_054feb2acfd28eeca93f8f22e35cc6d1.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 2 2026 06 22 The Impact of Institutional Quality on Iran’s Foreign Trade: Evidence from 1996–2020 بررسی تاثیر کیفیت نهادی بر تجارت خارجی ایران در بازه 1996 تا 2020 169 186 28399 10.48311/ecor.2026.28399 FA آزاده خرمی مقدم دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران سیدمرتضی افقه دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران 0000-0001-8903-6998 حسن فرازمند استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران حمیدرضا علی پور استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد رشت، رشت، ایران Journal Article 2025 07 01 Abstract This study investigates the impact of institutional quality on Iran’s foreign trade using the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI). To this end, an econometric model based on the gravity framework is applied to the period 1996–2020. In principle, a high-quality institutional system— characterized by factors such as a strict rule of law and political stability—is expected to reduce transaction costs, enhance trust, and thereby promote foreign trade. However, the findings reveal that institutional quality in Iran has exerted a negative and statistically significant effect on the country’s trade volume. This result contrasts with the dominant theoretical literature, which emphasizes a positive relationship between institutional quality and foreign trade. Further analysis suggests that this unexpected outcome reflects Iran’s specific economic and geopolitical circumstances. Owing to international sanctions, Iran has been compelled to redirect its trade toward partners that are less sensitive to institutional indicators. Consequently, even amid declining domestic institutional quality, trade with these partners has expanded. An examination of Iran’s trade pattern supports this interpretation. The share of industrialized countries with strong institutional frameworks—such as Germany, Japan, and France—has declined, while the share of countries such as China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Turkey has increased. This atypical trade structure explains the model’s results. The contrast becomes more pronounced when compared with China, which, despite facing institutional challenges, has evolved into a “successful developmental state.” By contrast, Iran has neither developed robust governance indicators nor established itself as a developmental state. Therefore, the negative coefficient obtained in the model does not imply the irrelevance of institutional quality. Rather, it indicates that under conditions of sanctions and political isolation, Iran’s foreign trade has been dominated by external constraints and compounded by inefficiencies in domestic governance structures. Purpose/Aims: This study examines the impact of institutional quality on Iran’s foreign trade using the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI). While economic theory posits that strong institutions—such as the rule of law and political stability—reduce transaction costs and facilitate trade, this research identifies a contrasting outcome in the case of Iran. Although previous studies emphasize the positive role of institutional quality in reducing policy uncertainty and fostering economic growth, its specific effect on Iran’s foreign trade remains insufficiently explored, particularly given the country’s marginal share in global trade. This paper seeks to address this gap. Methodology & Framework: The analysis employs a gravity model estimated using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) technique for the period 1996–2020. This method enables robust estimation of trade flows while appropriately accounting for zero trade observations and heteroskedasticity. Findings: The results indicate a statistically significant and negative relationship between Iran’s institutional quality and its foreign trade volume. This finding suggests that improvements in institutional quality have been associated with a reduction in Iran’s trade volume over the period under study. The estimated negative coefficient represents a clear departure from conventional theoretical expectations regarding the role of institutions in promoting trade. Discussion: This counterintuitive result can be attributed to Iran’s distinctive geopolitical and economic context. International sanctions have compelled Iran to reorient its trade toward partners that are less sensitive to institutional indicators. Consequently, Iran’s trade with industrialized countries characterized by strong institutional frameworks—such as Germany, Japan, and France—has declined, while trade with countries such as China, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey has expanded. The findings also underscore a notable contrast with China, which, despite institutional shortcomings, has successfully adopted a “developmental state” model and emerged as a major global trading power. Iran, by contrast, has neither established a coherent developmental state nor effectively addressed persistent governance weaknesses. These internal deficiencies, combined with external sanctions, have constrained Iran’s foreign trade performance. Importantly, the negative coefficient does not imply that institutional quality is unimportant; rather, it indicates that its potential positive effects have been outweighed by external constraints and domestic inefficiencies. Conclusion & Implications: The study underscores that enhancing Iran’s foreign trade performance and achieving deeper integration into the global economy require both the easing of international sanctions and comprehensive institutional reforms. Without simultaneously addressing these interrelated internal and external challenges, Iran’s foreign trade is likely to remain limited and structurally vulnerable. این پژوهش با هدف بررسی تأثیر کیفیت نهادی بر تجارت خارجی ایران با استفاده از شاخص‌های حکمرانی بانک جهانی (WGI) انجام و برای این منظور، یک مدل اقتصادسنجی مبتنی بر مدل جاذبه برای دوره زمانی 1996 تا 2020 به‎کار گرفته شده است. به‌طور معمول، انتظار می‌رود که یک سیستم نهادی با کیفیت، مانند حاکمیت قانون قوی و ثبات سیاسی، با کاهش هزینه‌های مبادله و افزایش اعتماد، به افزایش تجارت خارجی منجر شود. بااین حال، نتایج پژوهش حاضر، نشان می‌دهد که کیفیت نهادی ایران، تأثیر منفی و معناداری بر حجم تجارت خارجی کشور داشته است. این یافته با ادبیات نظری رایج که بر رابطه مثبت میان کیفیت نهادی و تجارت خارجی تأکید دارد، در تضاد است. تحلیل‌های بیشتر، نشان می‌دهد که این نتیجه غیرمنتظره، منعکس‌کننده شرایط خاص ایران است. به دلیل تحریم‌های بین‌المللی، ایران به ناچار تجارت خود را به سمت شرکایی سوق داده که حساسیت کمتری نسبت به شاخص‌های نهادی دارند. این موضوع باعث شده که حتی در شرایط کاهش کیفیت نهادی داخلی، تجارت با این شرکا افزایش یابد. بررسی الگوی تجارت خارجی ایران نیز نشان می‌دهد که سهم کشورهای صنعتی با نهادهای قوی مانند آلمان، ژاپن و فرانسه در تجارت ایران کاهش یافته و سهم کشورهایی مانند چین، امارات و ترکیه افزایش یافته است. این الگوی غیرمعمول در تجارت، یافته مدل را توجیه می‌کند. این یافته با مقایسه وضعیت چین که به رغم چالش های نهادی مشابه، به یک «دولت توسعه گرای موفق» تبدیل شده، برجسته تر میشود. در مقابل، ایران، نه تنها از شاخصهای حکمرانی بالایی برخوردار نبوده، بلکه در ایجاد یک دولت توسعه گرای موفق نیز ناکام مانده است. بنابراین، ضریب منفی در مدل به این معنی نیست که کیفیت نهادی بی‌اهمیت است، بلکه نشان می‌دهد که در شرایط تحریم و انزوای سیاسی، تجارت خارجی ایران تحت‌الشعاع عوامل خارجی و همچنین ناکارآمدی ساختار حکمرانی قرار گرفته است.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_28399_d1b11d193b9d62b13d4185fa795032af.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 2 2026 06 22 Novel Multistakeholder Governance Models for Facilitating the Transition of Iranian Industries to a Circular Economy )A Case Study of the Chemical & Petrochemical Industries( الگوهای نوین حکمرانی چندذی‌نفعی در تسهیل گذار صنایع ایران به اقتصاد چرخشی مطالعه موردی: صنایع شیمیایی و پتروشیمی 187 210 28400 10.48311/ecor.2026.28400 FA فرشاد مومنی استاد اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران جمال سلیمانی کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران 0009-0001-8034-8271 Journal Article 2025 05 03 Abstract The transition to a circular economy in Iran given the institutional and structural complexities requires governance models adapted to the local context. Focusing on a case study of the chemical and petrochemical industries and the chemical–plastic value chain, this study addresses a gap in the literature by linking firm-level incentives with inter-industry collaboration and macro level regulatory design. It asks how novel multistakeholder governance patterns can facilitate the circular-economy transition in these sectors. The research adopts an exploratory qualitative approach with a multiple-embedded case design. Data were collected through 20 semi-structured interviews with governmental, industrial, and civil-society actors, alongside 12 official policy and industry documents. A four-stage thematic analysis was conducted in MAXQDA 24. Data trustworthiness was ensured through triangulation, member checking, and peer debriefing, with inter-coder reliability of κ = 0.82. Theoretical saturation was reached after the 18th interview. Three governance models were identified: firm-centric, industry-centric and cross-sectoral. Integrative propositions indicate that: (G1) regulatory pressure alone leads to superficial transitions without network building; (G2) cluster sustainability depends on jointly agreed quality standards and transparent pricing; and (G3) adaptive state leadership is essential to bridge industry-centric to cross-sectoral governance and to phase out long-term subsidies. Accordingly, a multi-level intervention portfolio is proposed: full enforcement of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) and green loans (short-term), a national secondary-material marketplace and industry coordination nodes (medium-term), and deployment of Digital Product Passports (DPP) alongside a gradual subsidy phase-out (long-term). Future research should quantitatively test the proposed models across other energy-intensive sectors and develop performance indicators for circularity. Purpose/Aims: The study aims to answer how novel multistakeholder governance models can accelerate the CE transition of Iranian heavy industries. Anchored in the theoretical streams of stakeholder governance, sustainability transitions, and circular-economy policy, it conceptualises three ideal-type patterns (firm-centric, industry-centric, and cross-sectoral). The research seeks to fill a double gap in the literature: first, the relative neglect of coordinated stakeholder governance in emerging-economy CE debates; and second, the scarcity of empirically grounded models that link micro-level organisational motives to meso-level industrial collaboration and macro-level regulatory design. Methodology & Framework: Adopting an exploratory, interpretivist stance, the study deploys a qualitative multiple‑embedded case design. Twenty key informants covering state regulators, senior managers in public and private petrochemical conglomerates, cluster and trade‑association representatives, academics, municipal waste officials, and NGO activists were recruited through criterion‑based purposive sampling to ensure breadth of perspectives. Semi‑structured interviews averaging 70 minutes each were conducted, audio‑recorded, transcribed verbatim, anonymised, and complemented by twelve policy and industry documents (laws, standards, market reports). A four‑stage thematic procedure open, axial, selective, integrative was executed in MAXQDA 24, yielding 98 first‑order codes, 12 aggregate categories, and three major themes corresponding to the hypothesised governance patterns. Inter‑coder reliability achieved κ = 0.82; data saturation was confirmed after interview 18. Credibility was reinforced through triangulation of data types, member checking with three informants, and peer debriefing by two external scholars. Trustworthiness criteria of transferability, dependability, and confirmability were addressed via thick description, audit trail, and reflexive memos. Findings: The firm‑centric pattern dominates incumbents whose primary motive is cost savings and regulatory risk hedging. Energy‑recovery retrofits and minimal compliance with Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) standards reduce operational expenditure by up to 18 percent yet generate little inter‑firm synergy; χ² tests show significantly lower co‑occurrence with collaboration codes (p < 0.01). The industry‑centric pattern materialises through cluster platforms that institutionalise secondary‑material exchanges and joint technical working groups. A plastics consortium’s marketplace for polypropylene scrap cut disposal costs by 35 percent and raised recycled‑granulate acceptance from 42 to 65 percent within three years. The cross‑sectoral pattern, enabled by outcome‑based regulation plus targeted green finance, features “industry coordination nodes” (ICNs) where government sets macro targets while delegating tool selection to self‑organised alliances. Green credit from the National Environmental Fund shortened payback periods of chemical‑recycling lines from 7.2 to 4.8 years. Comparative synthesis reveals an evolutionary spectrum: initial cost‑defensive firm actions expand into intra‑cluster economies of scale before maturing into multi‑level, multi‑actor ecosystems. Three integrative propositions emerge: G1—regulation alone cannot deepen transition without network effects; G2—cluster durability hinges on jointly endorsed quality standards and transparent pricing; G3 adaptive state leadership is indispensable for bridging industry‑centric initiatives to cross‑sectoral regimes while phasing out persistent subsidies. Discussion: The research evidence fundamentally reframes the transition to a Circular Economy (CE) not merely as a discrete technological leap, but as a staged co-evolution of incentives, trust, and institutional complexity. By positioning the proposed multistakeholder framework against established paradigms, the analysis highlights distinct structural advantages: Contrast with good governance: Unlike the good-governance model which primarily emphasizes oversight, the proposed framework introduces a “value-creation loop” facilitated by participatory platforms. Contrast with collaborative governance: Relative to collaborative governance, it embeds explicit economic instruments designed to lock in collective gains. Contrast with polycentric governance: Vis-à-vis polycentric governance, it effectively balances decentralized experimentation with strategic state orchestration to ensure cohesive progress. Conclusion & Implications: Policy Implications and Intervention PortfolioThe findings crystallize into a multilevel intervention portfolio essential for operationalizing the transition: Short-term: Make Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) fully enforceable and capitalize a concessional Green Loan Facility. Medium-term: Launch a national secondary-material exchange and operationalize Industry Coordination Nodes (ICNs) in five key industrial hubs. Long-term: Deploy a circular data spine underpinned by mandatory Digital Product Passports and implement a sunset schedule for eco-subsidies to prevent path dependence. Addressing systemic obstacles—specifically policy discontinuity, inter-agency overlap, data deficits, SME capacity gaps, and cultural inertia—requires embedding this portfolio in statutory development plans, instituting an inter-ministerial steering committee, adopting blockchain-based traceability, offering subsidised technical assistance, and mandating sustainability disclosures. گذار به اقتصادِ چرخشی در ایران، به‌دلیل پیچیدگی‌های نهادی و ساختاری، نیازمند الگوهای حکمرانی سازگار با زمینه بومی است. این پژوهش با تمرکز بر مطالعه موردی صنایع شیمیایی و پتروشیمی و زنجیره شیمیایی-پلاستیک، شکاف ادبیات در پیوند زدن انگیزه‌های خردِ بنگاه با همکاری‌های میان‌صنفی و طراحی تنظیم‌گری کلان را هدف می‌گیرد و می‌پرسد که الگوهای نوینِ حکمرانیِ چندذی‌نفعی، چگونه می‌توانند گذار این صنایع را به اقتصاد چرخشی تسهیل کنند. پژوهش به‌صورت کیفیِ اکتشافی و با طرحِ موردیِ چندلایه انجام شد: ۲۰ مصاحبه نیمه‌ساختار‌یافته با بازیگران دولتی، صنعتی و مدنی به‌همراه ۱۲ سند رسمی گردآوری شد. تحلیل مضمونِ چهاربخشی در MAXQDA 24 اجرا و اعتمادپذیری با مثلث‌سازی داده‌ها، بازبینی اعضا و ممیزی همتا تقویت شد. پایایی بین‌کُدگذار κ = 0.82 و اشباع نظری پس از مصاحبه تأیید گردید. سه الگوی حکمرانی شناسایی شد: شرکت‌محور (کاهش هزینه و مهار ریسک مقرراتی)، صنعت‌محور (تبادل ضایعات و اقتصاد مقیاس خوشه‌ای) و فرابخشی (ترکیب تنظیم‌گری بروندادمحور با مشوق‌های مالی). گزاره‌های تلفیقی، نشان می‌دهد: (G1) فشار مقرراتی بدون شبکه‌سازی، گذار را سطحی نگه‌می‌دارد؛ (G2) پایداری خوشه‌ها، مشروط به استاندارد مشترک کیفیت و قیمت‌گذاری شفاف است؛ (G3) رهبری تطبیقی دولت برای پیوند صنعت‌محور به فرابخشی و کاهش تدریجی وابستگی به یارانه‌ها ضروری است. بر این اساس، پرتفوی مداخله چندسطحی شامل اجرای کامل EPR و وام سبز (کوتاه‌مدت)، بازار ملی مواد ثانویه و گره‌های هماهنگ‌گر صنعت‌محور (میان‌مدت)، و گذرنامه دیجیتالِ محصول (DPP) به‌همراه برنامه خروج تدریجی یارانه‌ها (بلندمدت) پیشنهاد می‌شود. پژوهش‌های آینده باید الگوهای استخراج ‌شده را در سایر صنایع انرژی‌بَر به‌صورت کمّی بیازمایند و شاخص‌های عملکرد چرخشی را توسعه دهند.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_28400_03fcb1b305029b58d302e2ce53be9e0f.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 2 2026 06 22 The Impact of Subsidies and Insurance on Reducing the Poverty Gap: A Household-Level Simulation Approach Incorporating Income, Capital, and Sudden Expenses اثر یارانه و بیمه بر کاهش شکاف فقر: شبیه‌سازی رفتاری خانوار با درآمد، سرمایه و هزینه‌های ناگهانی 211 237 28401 10.48311/ecor.2026.28401 FA محبوبه خادم نعمت اللهی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران 0000-0002-8340-0127 مجتبی بهمنی دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، ایران Journal Article 2025 08 27 Abstract The objective of this study is to examine the impact of government support policies—particularly insurance and subsidies—on reducing the poverty gap among households. To achieve this objective, two analytical approaches are employed: an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model and behavioral simulation within a dynamic systems framework. The data include quarterly observations from 2010 to 2024, as well as hypothetical data used for scenario modeling. The key variables consist of household income, assets, expenditures, losses, and access to government-provided insurance and subsidies. In the model, households are exposed to varying levels of initial income and assets, along with a range of routine expenses and financial shocks, such as damages resulting from accidents or illnesses. Simulation results indicate that the combined use of insurance and targeted subsidies plays a significant role in preventing asset depletion and income loss, thereby contributing to a reduction in the poverty gap. According to the findings, these policies lead to a 7% increase in household income, a 3% rise in investment, and a 5% reduction in expenditures. These outcomes underscore the importance of designing and implementing social protection policies grounded in insurance mechanisms to address structural poverty Purpose/Aims: The primary aim of this research is to investigate the impact of government support policies, particularly insurance schemes and targeted subsidies, on reducing household poverty gaps. Poverty, as a multifaceted socioeconomic phenomenon, extends far beyond income insufficiency; it encompasses disparities in access to health care, education, employment opportunities, and social protection mechanisms. In many developing economies, a substantial proportion of households remain economically vulnerable, such that adverse shocks—including natural disasters, illness, unemployment, or market volatility—can readily push them below the poverty line. This study builds upon the existing literature by addressing the structural and dynamic nature of poverty, conceptualizing it not as an inherent societal condition but as a consequence of systemic inequalities shaped by institutions, cultural practices, and economic structures. Although numerous policies have been implemented globally to mitigate poverty, the combined effect of insurance coverage and targeted subsidies on poverty dynamics—particularly their role as economic shock absorbers—remains insufficiently explored in a comprehensive and quantitative manner. Previous studies have often relied on static, cross-sectional analyses, thereby failing to capture the interactive, behavioral, and long-term impacts of such policies. This research seeks to bridge that gap by employing both econometric analysis and dynamic behavioral simulation to assess how the simultaneous implementation of insurance and subsidies can mitigate income losses, prevent capital erosion, and ultimately reduce poverty disparities. Methodology & Framework: The study adopts a dual methodological framework comprising an OLS regression model and dynamic behavioral simulation using system dynamics. Data were drawn from quarterly datasets provided by the Central Bank of Iran, the World Bank, and the Iranian Parliament, covering the period 2010–2024. Additional hypothetical data were incorporated for scenario modeling extending to 2051 (1430). The core variables include household income (Y), initial capital (K), essential expenditures (S), financial shocks such as damages, illnesses, or natural disasters (H), insurance compensation (B), and direct subsidies received (G). The dependent variable is the household poverty gap (PG). The OLS regression was employed to estimate the relationship between these variables and the poverty gap, expressed as: This econometric estimation provided baseline elasticities and the statistical significance of the explanatory variables. Subsequently, the estimated coefficients informed the system dynamics simulation developed using Vensim software. The simulation modeled household-level behavior over time under varying scenarios of insurance and subsidy provision, incorporating random shocks and heterogeneous income–capital distributions. This dynamic approach enabled the analysis to capture both short-term buffering effects and long-term structural implications of policy interventions. Findings: The OLS results revealed that household income and initial capital, although positively associated with wealth accumulation, also exhibited a statistically significant association with widening poverty gaps, suggesting that unequal distributions of these resources contribute to inequality. Conversely, essential expenditures and unexpected financial shocks exerted a positive and significant effect on the poverty gap, underscoring their role in intensifying financial distress among vulnerable households. Importantly, both targeted subsidies and insurance coverage demonstrated a negative and statistically significant relationship with the poverty gap, confirming their mitigating effects. The system dynamics simulation further illustrated that a combined policy approach—in which households simultaneously benefit from insurance compensation and targeted subsidies—produces a synergistic effect. Specifically, the results indicated a 7% increase in household income, a 3% increase in investment, and a 5% reduction in household expenditures under optimal policy conditions. The protective effects were most pronounced among lower-income households with limited initial capital, suggesting that well-targeted interventions yield disproportionately larger welfare gains for the most vulnerable segments of society. Moreover, the interaction between insurance and subsidies functioned as a complementary mechanism, reducing the severity of financial shocks and enhancing household resilience. In the absence of these protective measures, simulated scenarios projected a deeper and more persistent poverty gap over the modeled period. Discussion & Conclusion: The findings provide strong empirical support for the implementation of integrated social protection strategies in developing economies. The dual role of insurance and subsidies—as instruments of risk mitigation and as drivers of household financial stability—underscores their relevance within contemporary poverty reduction frameworks. Unlike one-time cash transfers, these mechanisms offer a structural buffer against income volatility and asset depletion, thereby preventing transient shocks from evolving into chronic poverty. From a policy perspective, this research advocates for refining subsidy allocation to ensure that it remains targeted and responsive to household vulnerability levels. Similarly, expanding insurance coverage, particularly in health-related and employment-linked sectors, can foster a more resilient socioeconomic environment. The results are consistent with prior studies but extend existing insights by incorporating dynamic simulations that capture feedback effects and long-term outcomes. Notably, the analysis indicates that the marginal benefits of these policies diminish for higher-income groups, highlighting the importance of progressive targeting and adaptive policy design. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the relevance of behavioral responses in policy evaluation. Households receiving predictable insurance and subsidy support are more likely to sustain investment activities and less likely to resort to adverse coping strategies, such as asset liquidation or high-interest borrowing. These dynamics carry important long-term implications for poverty eradication efforts, suggesting that strategic, complementary, and behaviorally informed interventions can disrupt persistent poverty cycles. In conclusion, the research demonstrates that a well-coordinated combination of insurance schemes and targeted subsidies is effective in reducing poverty gaps, improving household income and investment, and mitigating the adverse effects of financial shocks. Policymakers are encouraged to adopt dynamic modeling approaches when designing future interventions, as static analyses may underestimate the cumulative benefits of sustained and synergistic social protection measures. This study contributes to the growing body of literature on structural poverty alleviation by offering both empirical evidence and a dynamic analytical framework applicable to other developing contexts. هدف از این پژوهش، بررسی تأثیر سیاست‌های حمایتی دولت، به‎‌ویژه بیمه‌ها و یارانه‌ها، بر کاهش شکاف فقر خانوارها است. در این راستا، از دو رویکرد تحلیلی شامل مدل حداقل مربعات معمولی و شبیه‌سازی رفتاری در چهارچوب سیستم‌های پویا استفاده شده است. داده‌های مورد استفاده شامل اطلاعات فصلی مربوط به سال‌های 1389 تا 1403 و همچنین داده‌های فرضی برای مدل‌سازی سناریوها هستند. متغیرهای اصلی مطالعه شامل درآمد، سرمایه، هزینه، خسارت‌ها، بهره‌مندی از بیمه و یارانه‌های دولتی است. در این مدل، خانوارها با سطوح متفاوتی از درآمد و سرمایه اولیه، و همچنین با مجموعه‌ای از هزینه‌های روزمره و شوک‌های مالی مانند خسارت‌های ناشی از حوادث یا بیماری‌ها مواجه می‌شوند. نتایج شبیه‌سازی‌ها، نشان می‌دهد که بهره‌گیری همزمان از بیمه و یارانه‌های هدفمند، می‌تواند نقش مؤثری در جلوگیری از کاهش سرمایه یا افت درآمدی ایفا کند که درنهایت، منجر به کاهش شکاف فقر خانوارها می‌شود. براساس نتایج، این سیاست‌ها، منجر به افزایش ۷ درصدی درآمد خانوار، افزایش ۳ درصدی سرمایه‌گذاری و کاهش ۵ درصدی هزینه‌ها شده‌اند. این یافته‌ها بر اهمیت طراحی و اجرای سیاست‌های حمایت اجتماعی مبتنی بر بیمه برای مقابله با فقر ساختاری تأکید دارند.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_28401_2d3e87a73061fb3b5b2d428625f42bff.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 2 2026 06 22 An Examination of Fiscal Crowding-Out in Iran’s Economy and Its Impact on Investment and Gross Domestic Product بررسی پدیده ازدحام مالی در اقتصاد ایران و اثرگذاری آن بر سرمایه گذاری و تولید ناخالص داخلی 239 280 28402 10.48311/ecor.2026.28402 FA حسین اصغرپور استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران سامان حاتم راد استادیار گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران منصور حیدری دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد پولی دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران صادق رضایی استادیار اقتصاد، دانشکده کارآفرینی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران 0009-0009-5826-1127 Journal Article 2025 07 09 Abstract This study investigates the phenomenon of fiscal crowding-out in the Iranian economy over the period 1990–2022. Employing quarterly data and a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model, the study analyzes the impact of government budget deficits on private sector access to banking resources and investment. The model incorporates four key variables: the budget deficit, the ratio of government debt to the banking system, the ratio of credit to the non-governmental sector, and the ratio of investment to gross domestic product (GDP). The findings reveal that, in most years, government budget deficits have reduced the volume of banking credit available to the private sector, ultimately leading to lower levels of investment. The intensity of fiscal crowding-out has varied over time, with periods of relative moderation. Furthermore, using the Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) approach, the study evaluates the effect of this phenomenon on annual economic growth and confirms its negative impact. Overall, the results underscore that fiscal sustainability and reduced reliance on banking resources are essential prerequisites for strengthening the role of the private sector and achieving sustainable economic growth in Iran Purpose/Aims: The interaction between government expenditure and private sector economic activity has long been a central topic in macroeconomic debate, characterized by two contrasting perspectives. One view contends that fiscal expansion stimulates aggregate demand, thereby enhancing output growth and encouraging private investment. In contrast, an opposing perspective argues that excessive government spending absorbs scarce resources—particularly financial resources—thereby restricting private sector access to credit and ultimately suppressing private investment through a mechanism known as financial crowding out. This theoretical controversy originates in classical economics and has evolved through Keynesian and neoclassical frameworks. Contemporary analyses increasingly emphasize more sophisticated transmission channels, including the bank balance sheet channel. During periods of contractionary monetary policy, banks typically reduce lending volumes and favor larger firms, which exacerbates credit constraints for smaller enterprises. In Iran, the government’s superior creditworthiness incentivizes banks to allocate resources preferentially to the public sector, consequently limiting financing available to private firms. Additionally, rising government expenditures and persistent budget deficits intensify concerns regarding fiscal sustainability, further undermining investor confidence. Given the critical role of private investment in driving economic growth in Iran—particularly in the context of international sanctions and severe financial constraints—identifying the determinants of private sector investment and evaluating the effects of government expenditure on it are essential. Historical evidence suggests that periods characterized by lower budget deficits and reduced government borrowing from the banking system coincide with larger shares of credit allocated to the private sector. Accordingly, the primary research question guiding this study is whether government spending in Iran predominantly acts as a demand-side stimulus that supports private sector development or whether it primarily crowds out private investment by preempting financial resources. Addressing this question constitutes the core objective of the present investigation. Methodology & Framework: Iran’s distinctive political and economic circumstances have imposed several structural distortions on the national economy. Failure to account for these distortions may lead to misleading inferences regarding key economic relationships. Given the presence of structural breaks, regime shifts, and cyclical fluctuations in time-series data, it is therefore appropriate to employ an econometric framework capable of accommodating such features. The time-varying parameter (TVP) approach addresses these challenges by allowing coefficient estimates to evolve over time, thereby capturing period-specific economic conditions. The resulting time-varying coefficients not only indicate the direction (positive or negative) of the effects of explanatory variables on the dependent variable but also reveal the magnitude of these effects in each period. Findings: The empirical results indicate that, in most years, budget deficits have contributed to a contraction in banking facilities extended to the private sector, which has ultimately resulted in reduced private investment. The intensity of this financial crowding-out effect has varied over time, diminishing during certain periods. Subsequently, employing the MIDAS approach, the study assesses the implications of this crowding-out phenomenon for annual economic growth and confirms its adverse impact. The findings demonstrate that greater financial crowding-out is associated with weaker GDP growth. Discussion: The government’s heavy reliance on banking resources to finance budget deficits has led to a contraction in credit facilities available to the private sector, a subsequent decline in productive investment, and subdued economic growth. These results provide strong evidence of a pronounced financial crowding-out effect in the Iranian economy. Conclusion & Implications: To mitigate these adverse outcomes, comprehensive reforms to the government’s fiscal structure are imperative. Such reforms should include the liberalization of prices for goods and services, the elimination of implicit subsidies, an overhaul of the tax system, and strict control over recurrent expenditures. In addition, the accumulation of government debt in the banking system has immobilized credit resources, disrupted bank balance sheets, and increased financial vulnerabilities. It is therefore recommended that policymakers devise a transparent roadmap to halt further debt accumulation and gradually repay existing obligations through mechanisms such as debt offsets, the divestiture of surplus public assets, and the prudent issuance of bonds. Ultimately, the adoption of disciplined fiscal policies, combined with targeted allocation of resources toward developmental projects, would lay the foundation for enhanced private investment and sustainable economic growth. Complementing these measures, strengthening the capacity of the banking sector to support productive activities and improving the overall business environment would further reinforce these policy objectives. در این پژوهش، پدیده ازدحام مالی در اقتصاد ایران طی دوره زمانی ۱۳۶۹ تا ۱۴۰۱ بررسی می‌شود. با استفاده از مدل بردار خودرگرسیونی با ضرایب زمانی متغیر (TVP-VAR) و داده‌های فصلی، اثر کسری بودجه دولت بر دسترسی بخش خصوصی به منابع بانکی و سرمایه‌گذاری بررسی شده است. چهار متغیر اصلی شامل کسری بودجه، نسبت بدهی دولت به سیستم بانکی، نسبت تسهیلات به بخش غیردولتی و نسبت سرمایه‌گذاری به تولید ناخالص داخلی در مدل لحاظ شده‌اند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که در اغلب سال‌ها، کسری بودجه، منجر به کاهش تسهیلات بانکی برای بخش خصوصی و درنهایت، کاهش سرمایه‌گذاری شده و شدت ازدحام مالی در گذر زمان متغیر بوده و در برخی دوره‌ها، کاهش یافته است. در ادامه، با استفاده از روش MIDAS، اثر این پدیده بر رشد اقتصادی سالانه بررسی و تأثیر منفی آن تأیید شده است. این نتایج، بیانگر آن است که پایداری مالی دولت و کاهش وابستگی به منابع بانکی، پیش‌شرط ضروری برای تقویت نقش بخش خصوصی و تحقق رشد پایدار اقتصادی در ایران است.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_28402_418234c913e9bcd6132d551c8cbdd594.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 2 2026 06 22 The Impact of Political and Economic Crises on Migration Patterns in the Middle East: A Vector Autoregression Analysis تأثیر بحران‌های سیاسی و اقتصادی بر الگوهای مهاجرت در خاورمیانه: تحلیل به روش خود‌رگرسیون برداری 281 311 28403 10.48311/ecor.2026.28403 FA مسعود همایونی فر دانشیارگروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران 0000-0003-1475-7832 کیمیا خوش‌سیما شهرکی دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران سجاد نامور دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران سپهر مقصودی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران Journal Article 2025 04 08 Abstract Migration has become a critical global phenomenon, with more than 281 million international migrants recorded in 2023, driven by complex push–pull factors including political instability, economic hardship, and conflict. The Middle East has experienced particularly intense emigration flows, often described as a “migrant tsunami,” resulting in substantial losses of human capital amid heightened geopolitical competition. This study focuses on Iran, Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon—countries facing distinct yet interconnected political and economic crises. Political risks, such as governance instability, conflict, and sanctions, alongside economic risks including inflation, unemployment, and fiscal imbalances, are examined as key drivers of migration. Using a dynamic empirical framework, the study explores the interrelationships among migration, economic performance, and political and economic risks. The analysis reveals strong bidirectional linkages, highlighting migration as both a consequence of and a contributing factor to macroeconomic and political instability. The findings underscore the central role of economic risk in shaping migration dynamics and emphasize the need for integrated policy responses to manage migration pressures and promote regional stability. Purpose/Aims: The primary aim of this study is to examine the impact of political and economic crises on migration patterns in selected Middle Eastern countries. Specifically, the research investigates how political risks—including instability, governance weaknesses, and sanctions—as well as economic risks such as inflation, unemployment, and fiscal imbalances influence migration flows. By focusing on Iran, Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon over the period 2000–2020, the study seeks to identify the dynamic interactions among migration, economic growth, and risk factors. An additional objective is to assess whether migration itself feeds back into macroeconomic performance and political stability. Through this approach, the study aims to provide evidence-based insights that can inform policy interventions designed to address the root causes of migration in crisis-prone regions. Methodology & Framework: The study employs annual panel data covering the period 2000–2020, sourced from the World Bank, the PRS Group, and Our World in Data. A Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model is applied using STATA to capture the dynamic and endogenous relationships among migration, gross domestic product (GDP), political risk, and economic risk. Political risk is proxied by governance and corruption indicators, while economic risk is measured using inflation and fiscal balance variables. The PVAR framework allows for both temporal dynamics and cross-country heterogeneity. Impulse response functions are used to trace the effects of shocks to political and economic risks on migration, while variance decomposition is employed to quantify the relative contribution of each variable to fluctuations in migration. Findings: The descriptive statistics indicate relatively stable levels of political risk and moderate fluctuations in economic risk across the sample countries. Migration and GDP exhibit substantial variability over time. Granger causality tests confirm the existence of bidirectional relationships between migration and both political and economic risks, suggesting mutual reinforcement effects. Impulse response analysis shows that shocks to economic risk lead to persistent increases in migration, whereas the impact of political risk shocks diminishes after several periods. GDP growth initially stimulates migration but stabilizes in the medium term. Variance decomposition results reveal that economic risk accounts for the largest share of migration variability, ranging from 46% to 77%, highlighting its dominant role in shaping migration dynamics. Discussion: The results demonstrate strong interdependence among migration, economic conditions, and political stability in the Middle East. Migration emerges not only as a response to economic and political crises but also as a factor influencing macroeconomic performance and stability. Persistent economic instability and conflict amplify migration pressures, while improvements in GDP provide only temporary relief. The findings suggest that neglecting economic risk factors may undermine efforts to manage migration flows. Moreover, the feedback effects of migration on employment, investment, and fiscal conditions underscore the complexity of migration dynamics in crisis-affected economies. Conclusion & Implications: The study concludes that economic risk is the most significant driver of migration in the selected Middle Eastern countries, while political instability further exacerbates migration pressures. Effective migration management requires policies that simultaneously address economic vulnerabilities, such as unemployment and inflation, and enhance political stability and governance. Integrated policy frameworks that balance humanitarian considerations with macroeconomic resilience are essential. By addressing the interconnected nature of migration, economic performance, and political risk, policymakers can foster sustainable growth, attract investment, and promote social and economic stability in conflict-prone regions. در این مطالعه، تأثیر بحران‌های سیاسی و اقتصادی بر الگوهای مهاجرت در خاورمیانه با تمرکز بر چهار کشور ایران، سوریه، اردن و لبنان در بازه زمانی ۲۰۰۰ تا ۲۰۲۰ با استفاده از رویکرد تحلیلی - مقایسه‌ای با روش خودرگرسیون برداری بررسی می‌شود. در این تحقیق، نشان داده شده است که عوامل دافعه مانند جنگ، بی‌ثباتی سیاسی، بیکاری و فقر در کشورهای مبدأ و عوامل جاذبه نظیر فرصت‌های اقتصادی و امنیت در کشورهای مقصد، نقش کلیدی در شکل‌گیری موج‌های مهاجرت دارد. در تحلیل‌ اقتصادسنجی، شاخص‌های اقتصادی مانند تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، تعداد مهاجران و شاخص‌های ریسک سیاسی و ریسک اقتصادی به‌کار گرفته شده است. نتایج تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که ریسک‌های سیاسی و اقتصادی، نه‌تنها بر روند مهاجرت تأثیرگذارند، بلکه پیامدهای گسترده‌ای برای کشورهای مبدأ و مقصد به‌همراه دارند. آزمون‌های علیت گرنجر نیز رابطه دوطرفه بین بحران‌های اقتصادی و سیاسی و نرخ مهاجرت را تأیید می‌کند.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_28403_a90ab441fabcbbac21aaf1360076bd8d.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 2 2026 06 22 Comparative PEST Analysis of International Practices in Implementing Land Value Capture (LVC) Mechanisms تحلیل مقایسه‌ای تجربیات جهانی ابزارهای جذب ارزش افزوده زمین (LVC) با استفاده از روش PEST 313 343 28404 10.48311/ecor.2025.115459.0 FA مهسا فتاحیان دکتری شهرسازی، گروه شهرسازی، دانشکده معماری و شهرسازی، دانشگاه هنر اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران 0000-0002-0461-8604 رضا نصر اصفهانی دانشیار عضو هیات علمی گروه اقتصاد و کارآفرینی، دانشگاه هنر اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران. 0000-0002-8195-1339 همایون نورایی دانشیار برنامه ‎ریزی شهری و منطقه ‎ای، گروه شهرسازی، دانشکده معماری و شهرسازی، دانشگاه هنر اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران 0000-0002-6343-7117 Journal Article 2025 09 03 Abstract Land Value Capture (LVC) mechanisms have gained global attention as innovative strategies for financing urban infrastructure and promoting spatial justice. This study utilizes a library-based research approach to compile reports documenting the application of LVC tools over the past decade across various regions. Eight successful international cases were analyzed: valorization and plusvalías in Colombia, surplus construction bonds in Brazil, zoning in the United States, transfer of development rights in India, developer obligations in Germany, joint development in Washington, D.C., the rail-plus-property model in Hong Kong, and land readjustment in Japan. Using the PEST analytical framework, the study identifies key success factors and challenges related to these instruments, drawing lessons applicable to Iran. The findings show that LVC can generate sustainable financial flows, reduce reliance on public budgets, and promote social equity through the redistribution of public investment benefits. However, challenges such as political shifts, real estate downturns, social resistance, and legal complexities affect outcomes. For effective adoption in Iran—facing urbanization, oil dependency, and sanctions—the study recommends strengthening political and legal support, diversifying financial resources, prioritizing social justice, and investing in technical infrastructure. Purpose/Aims: Infrastructure investment needs are projected to reach $57 trillion by 2030, exceeding local governments' financial capacity and highlighting the need for alternative revenue sources. Following the Habitat III Conference, LVC emerged as a solution to urban financing challenges. LVC tools, based on capturing increases in land value due to public investments and regulatory changes, can be redistributed for the public good. This study aims to examine the success factors and challenges of LVC by analyzing eight global case studies: Valorización and Plusvalías in Colombia, Surplus Construction Bonds in Brazil, Zoning in the United States, Transfer of Development Rights in India, Developer Obligations in Germany, Joint Development in Washington, D.C., the Rail and Property model in Hong Kong, and Land Readjustment in Japan. The findings provide lessons for Iran's LVC implementation, offering insights into policymaking tailored to local conditions. Methodology & Framework: This study employs a library-based research approach, collecting data from official reports, case studies, and academic publications. The PEST framework (political, economic, social, and technical-legal factors) was used for analysis. A comparative examination of the eight international cases identified commonalities and divergences, based on geographical diversity, effectiveness, and relevance to Iran. Findings: The comparative analysis reveals the diversity of institutional frameworks, policy environments, and socio-cultural factors influencing LVC's success. These cases demonstrate how countries facing rapid urbanization, economic fluctuations, and inequality have developed strategies for financing urban development and promoting equity. Politically, the findings stress the importance of strong legal foundations and multilevel coordination. In Colombia, well-defined frameworks and municipal autonomy allowed efficient valorization implementation. Similarly, Brazil’s City Statute and municipal charters strengthened São Paulo’s LVC practices, promoting public-private partnerships and transparency. Economically, LVC tools have generated substantial financial returns, providing stable funding and reducing public budget reliance. Bogotá raised $683 million through valorization programs, São Paulo generated 3.3 billion reais with CEPAC bonds, and Hong Kong’s Rail and Property model produced an estimated $140 billion in net returns. These results suggest that well-structured LVC tools can ensure long-term financial sustainability without imposing excessive fiscal burdens. Socially, LVC has advanced social justice by redistributing development benefits and improving public service access. Affordable housing policies in the U.S. and Germany, along with transit-oriented development (TOD) in Hong Kong and India, have fostered inclusive growth. Transparency and public participation have been crucial in building trust and reducing resistance. Technically, effective regulatory and administrative systems are vital. The U.S. uses Floor Area Ratio (FAR) calculations and zoning adjustments to capture land value. Germany’s development yield indices and two-stage implementation provide clarity for developers, while Japan’s cadastral mapping and open public systems aid land readjustment programs. These examples show the need for strong legal and technical frameworks to ensure LVC's fair and consistent application. Discussion: Key lessons from these global cases emphasize strengthening political and legal support, diversifying financial resources, prioritizing public participation, and investing in technical infrastructure. In Iran, urban development faces rapid urbanization, a lack of affordable housing, informal settlements, aging infrastructure, and fiscal constraints from sanctions and oil dependency. LVC tools can provide innovative solutions for sustainable financing. To implement LVC in Iran, it is essential to reinforce legal frameworks, empower local authorities, and improve coordination across government levels. Independent oversight mechanisms will enhance transparency. Attracting private investment, diversifying financial instruments, and ensuring equitable risk-sharing between the public and private sectors will reduce reliance on public funds. Socially, prioritizing LVC revenues for affordable housing, preventing displacement, and fostering community participation will help mitigate conflicts. Investing in digital infrastructure, professional capacity building, and pilot projects will strengthen local adaptability, ensuring the effective execution of LVC mechanisms. Conclusion & Implications: The successful implementation of LVC in Iran could guide the country’s urban development toward a more sustainable and equitable model. By adapting international best practices to local conditions, Iran can address challenges posed by urbanization and economic constraints. Strengthening legal frameworks, empowering local authorities, fostering public-private partnerships, and emphasizing social justice will be crucial for LVC adoption. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers and urban planners seeking to create a more inclusive and sustainable urban development model in Iran. ابزارهای جذب ارزش افزوده زمین (LVC)، به‌عنوان راهکاری نوآورانه برای تأمین مالی زیرساخت‌های شهری و ارتقاء عدالت فضایی، در شهرهای جهان مورد توجه قرار گرفته‌اند. در این مطالعه، با استفاده از روش‌های کتابخانه‌ای، به جمع‌آوری گزارش‌ها و منابع معتبر در زمینه تجربه‌های اجرای ابزارهای LVC در دهه اخیر در مکان‌های مختلف پرداخته شده است. در این راستا، بررسی هشت تجربه موفق جهانی شامل ابزارهای والوریزاسیون و پلوس‌والیاس در کلمبیا، اوراق ساخت‌وساز مازاد در برزیل، منطقه‌بندی در ایالات متحده آمریکا، انتقال حقوق توسعه در هند، تعهدات توسعه‌دهنده در آلمان، توسعه مشارکتی در واشنگتن‌دی‌سی، مدل ریل + املاک در هنگ‌کنگ و تنظیم مجدد زمین در ژاپن با استفاده از روش تحلیلی PEST و شناسایی عوامل موفقیت و چالش‌های آنها در زمینه‌های متفاوت جغرافیایی، درس‌هایی کلیدی برای به‌کارگیری ابزارهای LVC در ایران استخراج گردید. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهند که ابزارهای LVC با ایجاد جریان مالی پایدار، وابستگی به بودجه عمومی را کاهش می‌دهند و با توزیع منافع حاصل از اقدامات عمومی، عدالت اجتماعی را تقویت می‌کنند. بااین‌حال، چالش‌هایی نظیر آسیب‌پذیری از تغییرات سیاسی، تأثیرپذیری از رکود بازار املاک، مقاومت‌های اجتماعی و پیچیدگی‌های فنی - حقوقی، بر نتایج به‌کارگیری آنها اثرگذار است. برای تسهیل به‌کارگیری این ابزارها در کشور ایران که با چالش‌های بنیادی مانند شهرنشینی سریع، وابستگی به درآمدهای نفتی و تحریم‌های اقتصادی مواجه است، تقویت حمایت سیاسی و قانونی، تنوع‌بخشی منابع اقتصادی، تمرکز بر عدالت اجتماعی از طریق مشارکت عمومی و سرمایه‌گذاری در زیرساخت‌های فنی پیشنهاد می‌شود.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_28404_9744c8cf184ceb07cf5c2bbce1489eb3.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 2 2026 06 22 The Role of Governance and Innovation in Enhancing Medium- and High-Tech Exports: A Quantile Regression Approach in Developing Countries نقش شاخص‌های حکمرانی و نوآوری در ارتقاء صادرات فناوری متوسط و پیشرفته: رویکرد رگرسیون کوانتایل در کشورهای در حال توسعه 345 386 28406 10.48311/ecor.2025.115451.0 FA اوین یوسفی کارشناس ارشد مدیریت فناوری اطلاعات، گرایش کسب و کار الکترونیک، گروه علوم انسانی، دانشگاه پیام نور، واحد تهران غرب، تهران، ایران فهمیده فتاحی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران Journal Article 2025 08 19 Abstract The aim of this study is to examine the impact of governance indicators, innovation, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, tariff rates (TARIFF), and oil rents (OILR) on medium- and high-tech exports (MHTE) in 37 developing countries over the period 2000–2023. Quantile regression is employed to analyze the data and assess the effects of the explanatory variables across different quantiles of technology exports. The results indicate that government effectiveness (GOVR) has a positive and statistically significant effect on technology exports, with a stronger impact at higher quantiles, whereas the rule of law (RULR) exhibits a negative and significant effect that intensifies across upper quantiles. Innovation indicators, including research and development (R&D) expenditures (RD) and the number of technicians employed in R&D (TRD), also demonstrate positive and significant effects on technology exports; however, their impact diminishes at higher quantiles and becomes insignificant in the top quantile. Moreover, GDP per capita (GDPP) exerts a positive effect in most quantiles but becomes insignificant in the top quantile, while TARIFF and OILR negatively affect technology exports, being significant in higher and lower quantiles, respectively. Based on these findings, enhancing GOVR, promoting targeted investment in R&D, increasing skilled human resources, reducing trade barriers, and decreasing dependence on natural resources are suggested as key policy measures for fostering technology exports in developing countries. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of efficient governance, innovation, and sound economic resource management in developing technological capacities and enhancing export competitiveness Purpose/Aims: Technological innovation and the development of MHTE are among the most important drivers of sustainable economic growth and enhanced competitiveness in the global economy. Since the 1950s, it has been widely recognized that long-term growth cannot be achieved solely through the accumulation of capital and labor; rather, innovation and technological progress play a decisive role in enhancing productivity. Countries that have successfully expanded their technological capacity have not only established knowledge-based industries but also secured larger shares of global markets. In developing countries, which often rely heavily on primary exports, this issue is even more critical, as the expansion of technology exports reflects the ability to transform knowledge into high-value-added products. Nevertheless, most previous studies have primarily focused on conventional economic variables, such as foreign direct investment and trade openness, while institutional and governance factors have received comparatively less attention. However, governance quality can significantly influence the trajectory of innovation and technology exports. GOVR, through the creation of institutional capacity and efficient policymaking, promotes innovation, whereas, in some cases, strict enforcement of laws may constrain flexibility and innovative activities. In addition, innovation indicators such as RD and TRD reflect the core capacity of countries to produce and commercialize complex technologies. This study employs panel quantile regression, a method that, unlike traditional approaches, does not restrict the analysis to mean effects but instead examines the impact of explanatory variables across different quantiles of the technology export distribution, thereby capturing cross-country heterogeneity more accurately. Accordingly, this research investigates the role of governance and innovation in promoting MHTE in 37 developing countries over the period 2000–2023. Methodology & Framework: This study uses panel data for 37 selected developing countries over the period 2000–2023. The dependent variable is the share of MHTE in total industrial exports. The independent variables include GOVR and RULR as governance indicators, RD and TRD as innovation indicators, as well as GDPP, TARIFF and OILR as control variables. Data were obtained from the World Bank. To analyze the relationships, the study applies panel quantile regression, which makes it possible to assess the impact of explanatory variables across different quantiles of the technology export distribution. Findings: The results indicate that GOVR has a positive and statistically significant impact on MHTE, with a stronger effect observed at higher quantiles. This finding suggests that countries with higher levels of GOVR benefit more in the upper segments of the technology export distribution, as efficient policymaking, institutional stability, and support for economic activities enhance export capacity. In contrast, the RULR exhibits a negative and significant effect that becomes stronger across higher quantiles, suggesting that stricter legal constraints and higher compliance costs may reduce firms’ flexibility and innovative activities in countries with more advanced technology export profiles. With respect to innovation, R&D expenditure exerts a strong and positive effect in lower quantiles, implying that at early stages of technological development, increased R&D investment directly promotes technology exports. However, this effect weakens and becomes insignificant at higher quantiles, indicating that at more advanced stages of technological development, R&D spending alone may be insufficient unless accompanied by appropriate institutional and policy support. TRD demonstrates a positive and significant effect across most quantiles, although its magnitude declines at higher quantiles, suggesting that the contribution of specialized human capital decreases beyond a certain threshold. GDPP has a positive and significant effect in the middle quantiles, reflecting the role of economic growth and higher income levels in facilitating technology exports. However, this effect weakens and becomes negative at higher quantiles, possibly due to a shift toward domestic consumption or non-export-oriented activities. Tariff rates negatively affect technology exports, with stronger effects observed at higher quantiles, indicating that trade restrictions hinder access to advanced technologies and intermediate inputs. OILR also have a negative impact, which is mainly significant at lower quantiles, suggesting that reliance on oil revenues reduces incentives and capacity for innovation-driven and technology-based exports. Discussion: The findings indicate that the development of MHTE depends on a combination of institutional and economic factors. GOVR plays an important role in providing the institutional environment necessary to support technology exports, whereas strict legal constraints may limit firms’ flexibility and innovative activities, particularly in countries with higher levels of technological exports. The results related to innovation suggest that the effects of R&D investment and specialized human capital vary across different stages of technological development. These factors are more effective in the early stages, while at higher levels of technological exports, their impact becomes more limited and requires complementary institutional reforms and supportive policy conditions. In addition, macroeconomic and trade-related factors highlight the importance of economic structure and trade policies in shaping technological export performance. Conclusion & Implications: Overall, the results suggest that promoting MHTE in developing countries requires strengthening GOVR and creating an institutional environment conducive to innovation. Investment in R&D and the development of specialized human capital are particularly effective at early stages of technological development; however, at more advanced stages, these efforts should be complemented by institutional reforms and trade policies aimed at reducing tariff barriers. Furthermore, economic diversification and reduced dependence on OILR are essential conditions for advancing technology exports in developing countries. هدف از این مطالعه، بررسی تأثیر شاخص‌های حکمرانی، نوآوری، تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، نرخ تعرفه و رانت نفت بر صادرات فناوری متوسط و پیشرفته در 37 کشور در حال توسعه طی دورۀ زمانی 2000 تا 2023 است. بدین منظور برای تحلیل داده‌ها از رگرسیون کوانتایل استفاده شده است تا اثرات متغیرها در دهک‌های مختلف صادرات فناوری مشخص گردد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که اثربخشی دولت، اثر مثبت و معناداری بر صادرات فناوری دارد و این اثر در دهک‌های بالاتر شدت بیشتری پیدا می‌کند، درحالی‏که حاکمیت قانون، اثر منفی و معناداری دارد که با افزایش دهک‌ها تشدید می‌شود. شاخص‌های نوآوری شامل مخارج تحقیق و توسعه و تعداد تکنسین‌های شاغل در تحقیق و توسعه نیز اثر مثبت و معناداری بر صادرات فناوری دارند، هرچند در دهک‌های بالاتر، کاهش می‌یابد و در دهک آخر، بی‌معنی می‌شود. همچنین، تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه در اکثر دهک‌ها، اثر مثبت دارد، اما در دهک آخر، بی‌معنی می‌شود، و نرخ تعرفه و رانت نفت تأثیر منفی بر صادرات فناوری دارند که به‎ترتیب، در دهک‌های بالاتر و پایین‌تر معنی‌دار است. بر اساس این نتایج، تقویت اثربخشی دولت، سرمایه‌گذاری هدفمند در تحقیق و توسعه، افزایش نیروی انسانی متخصص، کاهش موانع تعرفه‌ای و کاهش وابستگی به منابع طبیعی به‌عنوان سیاست‌های کلیدی برای ارتقاء صادرات فناوری در کشورهای در حال توسعه پیشنهاد می‌شود. این یافته‌ها، اهمیت حکمرانی کارآمد، نوآوری و مدیریت منابع اقتصادی را در توسعه ظرفیت‌های فناورانه و افزایش رقابت‌پذیری صادراتی برجسته می‌سازد.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_28406_69d355e07534e5c2f03bac0f464bd231.pdf