دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 1 2026 03 21 Investigating the Effect of Technology Shock on Income Inequality in Iran: An Application of the Computable General Equilibrium Model بررسی تأثیر تکانه فناوری بر نابرابری درآمدی در ایران با کاربرد الگوی تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه 1 38 27933 10.48311/ecor.2025.27933 FA مسعود صالحی رزوه دکترای اقتصاد، پژوهشگر پژوهشگاه علوم و فرهنگ اسلامی قم، ایران حمزه شیخیانی دکترای اقتصاد، فارغ التحصیل گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران علی حسین صمدی استاد تمام اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران 0000-0002-8491-6192 Journal Article 2024 09 30 Abstract In the era of the knowledge-based economy, despite the increasing speed of knowledge production and innovation, concerns about their effects on income inequality have also intensified. Regarding the causes of this phenomenon, the theories of skill-biased technological change (SBTC) and North–South trade (NST) have been proposed. The theory of SBTC seeks to explain the persistently widening wage gap between low-skilled and high-skilled workers in recent decades. Since the late 1970s, relative wages in labor markets have undergone major changes, steadily widening the wage gap in favor of more skilled workers. This theory suggests that technology substitutes for low-skilled labor, reducing employment shares and wages for low-skilled workers. Conversely, high-skilled jobs, for which technology is complementary, experience increased wages and employment shares. Aim and Introduction: In the era of a knowledge-based economy, despite the increasing speed of knowledge production and innovation, concerns about their effects on income inequality have also grown. Two major theories explain the causes of this phenomenon: skill-biased technological change (SBTC) and North–South trade (NST). The SBTC theory seeks to explain the persistent widening of the wage gap between low-skilled and high-skilled workers in recent decades. Since the late 1970s, relative wages in labor markets have undergone major shifts, steadily widening the wage gap in favor of more skilled workers. This theory posits that technology substitutes for low-skilled labor, reducing employment shares and wages for such workers. By contrast, high-skilled occupations, for which technology acts as a complement, experience increased wages and employment shares. Regarding the effect of trade expansion on income inequality, three main theoretical approaches have been proposed. The first approach—the neoclassical theory of international trade (the Heckscher–Ohlin standard model)—attributes trade between countries to comparative advantage resulting from differences in the abundance of production factors and inputs. The second approach, the new theory of international trade, explains trade relations among countries with similar factor endowments. Unlike the first approach, it assumes imperfect competition in the goods market and is used to explain trade among developed countries and trade within industries. The third approach focuses on technological change as a driver of trade patterns (Gorji & Borhanipour, 2008, p. 103). In this study, the effects of trade expansion on income inequality are examined through the lens of technological progress. Trade expansion fosters knowledge and technology transfer, and by increasing innovation in the recipient (destination) country, it enhances productivity, added value, and production (Das, 2012, p. 621). This effect is especially evident in developing countries that rely heavily on research and innovation originating in developed economies (Piva, 2004, p. 1). Many economists regard the transfer of knowledge and technology through trade expansion as one of the key mechanisms influencing income inequality. Technological progress can affect skill premiums—and consequently income inequality—through three channels: knowledge spillovers, spatial agglomeration effects of innovation, and skill-biased technological change. Methodology: To investigate and empirically analyze the effect of technology shock on income inequality in Iran, this research employs the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Specifically, the Partnership for Economic Policy one-period, one-country model (PEP-1-1) is used. This model comprises 98 equations and is divided into four blocks: price, production and trade, institutions, and system constraints. Necessary modifications were made to the standard model equations to align them with the structure of Iran’s economy. The PEP-1-1 model is based on data from the social accounting matrix (SAM) and incorporates economic activities, goods, production factors, and institutions. To achieve the objectives of this study, scenarios were simulated by altering the value of the technology spillover coefficient and examining its effects on the Gini coefficient and the ratio of expenditures of the tenth to the first income decile, both indicators of income inequality. According to Briguglio (2008), the base value of the technology spillover coefficient for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries is 0.0062. In the simulation, this coefficient was incrementally increased by 0.1, 0.25, 0.3 and 0.5 to assess its impact. Results and Discussion: A comparison of simulation results for urban and rural areas reveals that, in both areas, increasing the technology spillover coefficient up to 0.25 reduces income inequality. Beyond this threshold, however, further increases in the spillover level lead to higher inequality. Based on the hypothesis of technology–skill complementarity, in Iran, an initial rise in the technology spillover coefficient increases productivity, production, and income, thereby reducing the wage gap. Once the spillover surpasses the 0.25 level, however, the absence of the basic skills required by advanced technologies, combined with a high degree of substitutability between unskilled labor and capital, leads to higher unemployment among low-skilled workers, reduced income levels, and greater income inequality. Conclusion: Although higher levels of technology have the potential to reduce income inequality by increasing productivity and creating employment opportunities, their effects are complex and contingent upon factors such as the education and skill levels of the labor force, the nature of technological change, and the regulatory environment. Policymakers should take these factors into account and implement measures to ensure a homogeneous and inclusive distribution of the benefits of technological advancement. در عصر اقتصاد دانش بنیان، با وجود افزایش سرعت تولید دانش و نوآوری، نگرانی در مورد اثرگذاری آن بر نابرابری درآمدی نیز افزایش‌ یافته و در مورد علل این پدیده، نظریات تغییر در فناوری مهارت‎محور1 (SBTC) و تجارت شمال-جنوب2 (NST) مطرح شده است. هدف از نگارش مقاله حاضر، این است که با استفاده از الگوی تعادل عمومی قابل ‌محاسبه، به بررسی تأثیر تکانه انتقال فناوری از طریق تجارت بر نابرابری درآمد در ایران بپردازیم. برای این هدف، با وارد کردن تکانه‌های مختلف فناوری به ضریب سرریز فناوری، اثرات آن بر ضریب جینی و نسبت هزینه دهک دهم به دهک اول مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. مقایسه نتایج شبیه‌سازی مناطق شهری و روستایی، نشان می‌دهد که در هر دو منطقه، افزایش سرریز فناوری تا نقطه 25/0 موجب کاهش نابرابری می‌شود. پس ‌از این نقطه، افزایش سطح سرریز فناوری، موجب افزایش نابرابری درآمدی خواهد شد. این نتیجه، بیانگر این واقعیت است که گرچه افزایش سطح فناوری، پتانسیل کاهش نابرابری درآمد از طریق افزایش بهره‌وری و ایجاد شغل را دارد، اما اثرات آن پیچیده و مشروط به عوامل مختلفی مانند سطح تحصیلات و مهارت‌های نیروی کار، ماهیت تغییرات فناوری و محیط نظارتی است. سیاست گذاران باید این عوامل را در نظر بگیرند و اقداماتی را برای اطمینان از توزیع یکنواخت و فراگیر مزایای بهبود فناوری انجام دهند.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_27933_dccf189cbe63472d0f4f5b00facfd2e1.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 1 2026 03 21 Mapping Income Generation through Digital Currencies in Iran Using the Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) Approach نگاشت‌ نقشه کاملی از کسب درآمد از طریق ارزهای‌دیجیتال با درنظر گرفتن شرایط کنونی کشور، با استفاده از رویکرد تحلیل و توسعه گزینه‌های استراتژیک (SODA) 39 67 27935 10.48311/ecor.2025.27935 FA حسن عرب عامری دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران منصور مومنی استاد، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران محمود دهقان نیری دانشیار، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2025 01 19 Abstract Iran is a vast country endowed with abundant natural and God-given resources—including oil, gas, minerals, seas, and forests—that create substantial potential for economic development. However, a new global phenomenon, namely digital currencies, particularly the cryptocurrency mining industry, has emerged as an area that, given Iran’s economic conditions, should be considered by the government as a major source of national income. In recent years, the issue of digital currencies, owing to their decentralized nature, has become one of the country’s important strategies for revenue generation. The purpose of this study is to map out strategies for generating income from digital currencies using the Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) approach. During the implementation of SODA’s six main stages, the researchers collected qualitative data through expert interviews and developed and analyzed the final map using Explorer Decision software. Accordingly, six key strategic options for income generation were identified: 1) Large-scale investment in the construction and procurement of equipment required for digital currencies, 2) Formulation of new policies and guidelines for digital currencies, 3) Establishment of support and investment funds, 4) Implementation of an appropriate taxation and insurance system, 5) Development of infrastructure and technological platforms, and 6) Promotion of international discourse to expand global trade exchanges. By focusing on these options, specific strategies were developed for each to strengthen the key themes of the final map and, at a higher level, to achieve the intended goals. Aim and Introduction: Iran is a vast country rich in natural and God-given resources such as oil, gas, mines, sea and forest, which always creates potential for the economic development of the country, but a new phenomenon called digital currencies and especially the cryptocurrency mining industry in It has been suggested to the world that according to Iran's economic conditions, it is necessary to be considered as a main source of income for the country under consideration. In recent years, the topic of digital currencies, due to its decentralized nature, can be one of the country's important strategies for earning money. Therefore, considering the current conditions of the country, earning money through digital currencies is introduced as the main goal of this research. Achieving this goal is realized by mapping a complete map of the current state of the country and digital currencies, and by using the strategic options analysis and development (SODA) approach. During the implementation of the six main stages of SODA, researchers collected research data through interviews with experts and drew and analyzed the final map using Explorer Decision software. Based on this: the goals, important issues and key options affecting earning money through digital currencies were identified and finally six key options were determined that would enable the realization of the goals and important issues. Also, focusing on these options, strategies were developed and presented for each one. Methodology: In terms of research philosophy, the current research is a qualitative research with an inductive approach, and in terms of orientation, because the research is done with the aim of enjoying the results of the findings to solve the existing problems in a specific field, it is applied. In this research, due to the intertwined nature of the problem and the emphasis on framing the problem and providing an agreed solution and commitment, the strategic options analysis and development. Results and Discussion: Considering the agreed plan; 1- Big investment in the construction and purchase of devices and equipment needed for digital currencies 2- New policies and guidelines for digital currencies 3- Formation of support and investment funds 4- Applying appropriate tax and insurance system 5- Development of infrastructures and technological platforms 6- Development of international discourse in order to expand commercial exchanges with other countries, have the greatest impact on the most key issue identified in the previous stage, i.e. "Development of exchanges, Iranian platforms and the formation of a national cryptocurrency". and are considered as important options. In the strategic options analysis and development approach, as the name suggests, our focus should be on strengthening these key options that have a significant impact on important issues, and important issues also lead to achieving the goal at a higher level. Conclusion: From the point of view of researchers, the government should seriously support blockchain and cryptocurrency technology, because blockchain and cryptocurrency technology, due to the use of a distributed database and lack of control by a central system, can open the way for governments under sanctions to deal with financial sanctions and be a bank, although this effect is not comprehensive. This issue will create a new opportunity in the field of internet businesses, fintech and the use of various types of distributed application software. Therefore, legislation is the first priority. Currently, due to the growing nature of this technology and the lack of complete and clear laws and policies in the countries of the world, a cautious and at the same time supportive policy should be provided for the use of cryptocurrencies and to create the basis for the growth and development of blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies in the country. ایران کشوری وسیع و سرشار از منابع طبیعی و خدادادی از جمله نفت، گاز، معادن، دریا و جنگل است که همواره توان بالقوهای را برای توسعۀ اقتصادی کشور ایجاد می‌کند، اما پدیده جدیدی به‎نام ارزهای دیجیتال و به‎خصوص صنعت استخراج رمزارز در دنیا مطرح شده است که با توجه به شرایط اقتصادی ایران لازم است به‌عنوان یک منبع اصلی کسب درآمد برای کشور مدنظر حاکمیت قرار گیرد. در سال‌های اخیر، موضوع ارزهایدیجیتال به سبب ویژگی غیرمتمرکز بودن، میتواند یکی از راهبردهای مهم کشور برای کسب درآمد، مطرح شود. بنابراین با درنظر گرفتن شرایط کنونی کشور، کسب درآمد از طریق ارزهای دیجیتال، هدف اصلی این پژوهش معرفی می‎گردد. دستیابی به این هدف، با نگاشت نقشۀ کاملی از وضعیت کنونی کشور و ارزهای دیجیتال، و با استفاده از رویکرد تحلیل و توسعه گزینههای استراتژیک محقق می‎‎شود. پژوهشگران در حین اجرای شش مرحله اصلی SODA، به جمعآوری داده‌های تحقیق از طریق مصاحبه با خبرگان پرداخته و با استفاده از نرم افزارExplorer Decision نقشه نهایی را ترسیم و تجزیه و تحلیل کردند. بر این اساس: اهداف، موضوعات مهم و گزینه‎های کلیدی تأثیرگذار بر کسب درآمد از طریق ارزهای دیجیتال، شناسایی شد و درنهایت، شش گزینه کلیدی که موجبات تحقق اهداف و و طرح موضوعات مهم را فراهم می‌آورند، مشخص گردید. همچنین با تمرکز بر این گزینهها، برای هر کدام، استراتژی‌هایی تدوین و ارائه گردید.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_27935_2da25054a079d631e04b67bb7d7b5bd6.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 1 2026 03 21 Assessing the Impact of Residential Building Retrofit Subsidies on Energy Efficiency in Shiraz: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach ارزیابی تأثیر سیاست‌ یارانه‌ای بازسازی مسکن بر کارایی انرژی در شهر شیراز: رویکرد مدل سازی عامل‌محور 69 106 27938 10.48311/ecor.2025.27938 FA زهرا محزون دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران زهرا دهقان شبانی دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران کریم اسلاملوئیان استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران شکوفه فرهمند دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران Journal Article 2025 01 24 Abstract The residential sector in Iran accounts for approximately 30% of the country’s total final energy consumption, making it the largest energy-consuming sector. This highlights the sector’s low energy efficiency. To address this issue, the present study examines the impact of an incentive-based subsidy policy on improving energy efficiency in residential buildings in Shiraz, using an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach. The primary objective is to develop a strategy that encourages building owners to retrofit their properties through subsidies, balancing governmental interests and owner satisfaction while minimizing potential conflicts. In this research, the government, building owners, and residential buildings are modeled as key agents. The decision-making behaviors of the government and owners are simulated using principal-agent theory, and the subsidy policy is optimized accordingly. Simulation results for the period 2021–2031 indicate that the optimized subsidy policy reduces energy consumption by 22.2% and enhances energy efficiency by 22.8% in retrofitted residential buildings. Furthermore, assuming a 10% annual increase in energy prices and conducting sensitivity analyses on five key parameters—homeownership rate, retrofitting demand rate, owner cost coefficient, economic benefit coefficient, and environmental benefit coefficient—the study finds that energy efficiency improvements are inversely related to owner costs but positively correlated with energy prices, homeownership rates, retrofitting needs, and economic and environmental benefits. These findings can inform the design of more effective energy optimization policies for the residential sectorr. Aim and Introduction: Observations of energy consumption in both developed and developing countries reveal a gap between optimal and actual energy use, known as the energy efficiency gap. This issue has gained significant attention in recent years due to the growing global energy crisis. One of the main contributors to this gap is the presence of market barriers to energy efficiency, which can be divided into energy market barriers and market failures. Market barriers refer to factors that hinder improvements in energy efficiency, such as the low prioritization of energy issues, limited access to capital, and imperfect energy-efficiency markets. Market failures, including incentive misalignment, information asymmetry, externalities, and unpriced public goods, further restrict efficient energy use. In the context of energy efficiency, market failures often involve incentive misalignment and information asymmetry—core aspects of the principal-agent problem. Incentive misalignment occurs when contracting parties pursue conflicting objectives, whereas information asymmetry arises when parties possess unequal levels of relevant information. Numerous studies have examined the relationship between principal-agent theory and energy efficiency, demonstrating that insufficient investment in energy efficiency can often be explained within this framework. Market failures necessitate government intervention because they lead to inefficient resource allocation. According to neoclassical economics, addressing these failures can improve Pareto efficiency. In Iran, the residential sector accounts for approximately 30% of total final energy consumption, with natural gas and electricity serving as the dominant energy carriers. The residential and commercial sectors together contribute around 22% of total CO₂ emissions, with natural gas being the primary source. Given these figures, enhancing energy efficiency in residential buildings is essential to reducing overall energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Globally, governments have implemented various measures to improve building energy efficiency, including financial incentives, regulatory frameworks, and assessment-based policies. However, a persistent challenge in policy implementation lies in the differing objectives and information levels between governments and building owners. While governments aim to maximize social welfare, building owners prioritize personal utility, creating potential conflicts of interest. To mitigate this issue, governments must design effective policies that incentivize building owners to adopt energy-efficiency improvements. This study investigates the impact of retrofit subsidies for residential buildings on energy efficiency—specifically, natural gas and electricity consumption—within the principal-agent framework using an agent-based modeling approach. Methodology: This study develops an agent-based model to analyze the decision-making behaviors of various building owners and to optimize incentive policies for energy-efficiency retrofits, considering both building conditions and owner characteristics. Agent-based modeling has been identified as an effective method for addressing agency problems because it allows for the analysis of motivations and behaviors of self-interested participants. This approach enables the identification of optimal solutions to agency problems by simulating dynamic negotiations, interactions, and conflicts among stakeholders. Results and Discussion: Simulation results for the period 2021–2031 indicate that providing optimal subsidies to building owners reduces energy consumption by 22.2% following retrofitting and increases energy efficiency by 22.8% in residential buildings. Assuming a 10% annual increase in energy prices and conducting sensitivity analyses on five parameters—homeownership rate, retrofitting demand rate, owner cost coefficient, economic benefit coefficient, and environmental benefit coefficient—show that energy efficiency improvement is inversely related to the owner cost coefficient and directly related to energy prices, homeownership rates, retrofitting demand rates, and economic and environmental benefit coefficients. These results can serve as a foundation for designing more effective policies aimed at optimizing energy consumption in the residential sector. Conclusion: This study investigates the impact of government subsidy incentive policies on improving energy efficiency in residential buildings in Shiraz using agent-based modeling. The primary goal is to develop a policy framework that encourages building owners to renovate their properties through subsidies in a manner that maximizes both government benefits and owners’ utility. Specifically, the proposed model accounts for the diverse characteristics of buildings and their owners, providing policy recommendations tailored to different contexts based on these attributes. The model employs a principal-agent theory-based approach to address agency problems in the renovation and energy-efficiency improvement process. Unlike previous studies that rely on empirical or econometric methods, which often fail to uncover the internal logic of these issues, this study models decision-making behavior within the principal-agent framework and simulates it on an agent-based platform. The findings demonstrate that offering subsidies to building owners who accept government proposals for renovation results in substantial reductions in energy consumption and notable improvements in energy efficiency over the simulation period (2021–2031). Overall, this study confirms that agent-based modeling is a powerful tool for analyzing and designing optimal policies in the domain of building energy efficiency. Incentive-based policies are shown to play a pivotal role in achieving both environmental and economic objectives. بخش مسکونی در ایران، با سهم حدود ۳۰ درصدی از کل مصرف نهایی انرژی، بیشترین سهم مصرف انرژی را به خود اختصاص داده است. این امر، نشان‌دهندۀ سطح پایین کارآیی انرژی در این بخش است. در این راستا، در پژوهش حاضر، به بررسی تأثیر سیاست تشویقی پرداخت یارانه بر بهبود کارآیی مصرف انرژی در ساختمان‌های مسکونی شهر شیراز با استفاده از روش مدل‌سازی عامل‌محور می‌پردازیم. هدف اصلی از این مطالعه، ارائۀ راهکاری مؤثر برای تشویق مالکان به بازسازی ساختمان‌ها از طریق پرداخت یارانه است، به‌گونه‌ای که همزمان، منافع دولت و مطلوبیت مالکان به حداکثر برسد و تعارض اهداف بین این دو طرف کاهش یابد. در این پژوهش، دولت، مالکان و ساختمان‌های مسکونی به‎عنوان عوامل اصلی در مدل‌سازی عامل‌محور تعریف شده‌اند. رفتارهای تصمیم‌گیری دولت و مالکان با استفاده از نظریه نمایندگی، مدل‌سازی و سیاست تشویقی پرداخت یارانه بهینه‌سازی شده است. نتایج شبیه‌سازی در بازۀ زمانی ۱۴۰۰ تا ۱۴۱۰ نشان می‌دهد که اجرای سیاست تشویقی پرداخت یارانۀ بهینه به مالکان، منجر به کاهش 2/22 درصدی مصرف انرژی و بهبود 8/22 درصدی کارآیی انرژی در ساختمان‌های مسکونی پس از بازسازی می‌شود. همچنین، با در نظر گرفتن افزایش سالانۀ ۱۰ درصدی قیمت انرژی و انجام تحلیل حساسیت بر روی پنج پارامتر کلیدی (نرخ مالکیت مسکن، نرخ نیاز به بازسازی، ضریب هزینه مالک، ضریب منفعت اقتصادی و ضریب منفعت زیست‌محیطی)، نتایج نشان می‌دهند که بهبود کارآیی انرژی با ضریب هزینه مالک، رابطۀ معکوس و با قیمت انرژی، نرخ مالکیت مسکن، نرخ نیاز به بازسازی و ضرایب منفعت اقتصادی و زیست‌محیطی، رابطۀ مستقیم دارد. این یافته‌ها می‌توانند به‎عنوان راهنمایی برای طراحی سیاست‌های مؤثرتر در حوزۀ بهینه‌سازی مصرف انرژی در بخش مسکونی مورد استفاده قرار گیرند.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_27938_8ee15923664a1ff58e5f7fddfdb91679.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 1 2026 03 21 Effect of Financing Cost on Investment in Iranian Firms اثر نرخ هزینه تامین مالی بر سرمایه‌گذاری بنگاه‌های تولیدی در ایران 107 130 27939 10.48311/ecor.2025.27939 FA سجاد ابراهیمی استادیار گروه سیاست‌های پولی و ارزی، پژوهشکده پولی و بانکی، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2025 01 18 Abstract Iran’s financing system is primarily bank‑based, so the cost of capital largely depends on bank loan rates, which are administratively set by government executive orders. At times these loan rates have been lower than the inflation rate. This raises an important question: under these conditions, how does the cost of financing affect corporate investment? To explore this, I analyzed financial statements of 401 firms for the years 1383–1402 using a dynamic panel GMM estimator. The results show that the cost of financing has a negative and statistically significant effect on firms’ investment rates. Further analysis indicates that this effect is significant only when the real cost of financing is positive; it disappears when the real interest rate is negative. The findings also suggest that the financing rate’s impact on investments in fixed assets (machinery, land, and buildings) is smaller than its effect on investments in financial assets Aim and Introduction: Investment is a key driver of economic growth in developing countries, and Iran has experienced persistently low or negative investment rates over the past decade. Identifying the determinants of investment, therefore, is crucial for economic policy-making in Iran. A large body of literature emphasizes the cost of capital as a major determinant of firms’ investment decisions, with interest rate changes serving as a primary channel through which the cost of capital varies. In Iran, administrative ceilings on bank loan rates have often produced negative real lending rates when inflation outpaces nominal interest rates. This study investigates whether financing costs and bank loan rates influence corporate investment under these institutional conditions. In other words, this paper aims to address the question of whether the negative relationship between interest rates and investment rates remains significant in a situation where real interest rates are negative. Also, this paper investigates whether the effect of interest rate on investments depends on the type of investment.. Methodology: The analysis is based on a firm-level panel of 401 companies listed on the Iranian stock markets, covering the period 2004–2023. The key variables—financing cost and investment rate—are constructed from firms’ financial statements. The Investment rate is obtained by dividing net capital expenditures by total assets. Using data from cash flow statements, total investment is decomposed into investment in fixed assets and investment in financial assets. For financing cost, in addition to the bank loan rate (which is uniform across firms at each date), two firm-specific financing-rate indices are applied in the model to capture heterogeneity in financing rate. Although it has been shown that the average of both firm-specific financing-rate indices is highly correlated with the bank interest rate, and firm-level indices besides changes in the bank rate include heterogeneity at the firm level. Firm-level uncertainty is computed following Gilchrist et al. (2014). The estimated empirical model is a dynamic investment equation: Where is firm i’s investment rate at time t; denotes sales value to total assets; represents operating cash flow to total assets, is the firm-level uncertainty index, is the firm-specific financing rate, and and represent industry and time fixed effects, respectively. The model is estimated using the Arellano–Bover/ Blundell–Bond GMM framework, with two-step estimates reported to improve efficiency.. Results and Discussion: The baseline results show that the financing rate exerts a negative and statistically significant effect on firms’ overall investment rates, which is consistent with the neoclassical theory of investment. To explore whether this effect depends on the real lending rate environment, the financing variable is interacted with dummy variables indicating periods of positive and negative real loan rates. The results reveal that the negative impact of financing costs on investment is restricted to periods of positive real loan rates and disappears when real rates turn negative. This finding remains credible when firm-level financing indices are used instead of the bank loan rate. According to the estimated coefficients of other variables (see Table 1), the uncertainty index has a significant negative effect on investment, while lower operating cash flow also reduces investment, which is consistent with internal-finance constraints. Comparing the effect of financial cost on different investment types shows that the elasticity of fixed-asset investment with respect to the financing rate is smaller than that of financial-asset investment. Thus, changes in loan rates affect firms’ financial investments more strongly than their tangible investments in machinery, land, and buildings. Moreover, fixed-asset investment exhibits stronger persistence: its lagged value is a significant predictor, implying that past capital commitments influence current investment decisions.. Conclusion: This study examines the relationship between bank loan rates, firm-level financing costs, and corporate investment in Iran. The main contribution of this study is addressing this relationship under financial repression conditions (Interest rate ceilings and negative real interest rates) in a developing country. The findings suggest that the effectiveness of interest rate on investment, as a key monetary transmission mechanism to the real economy, depends on the real interest rate regime. When nominal loan rates fall below inflation—yielding negative real lending rates—variations in financing costs or bank loan rates do not have a significant effect on investment activity. Consequently, contractionary monetary policy that raises nominal loan rates fails to generate the expected dampening effects on investment and output during periods of negative real interest rates. On the other hand, using expansionary monetary policy to stimulate the real sector through investment when the real interest rate is negative also cannot work. So, policymakers should therefore take the real-rate environment into account when evaluating the real-sector implications of interest rate adjustments. با توجه به بانک محور بودن نظام تأمین مالی در ایران، نرخ هزینه تأمین سرمایه در ایران تا حدود زیادی به نرخ سود تسهیلات بانکی وابسته است که اولاً، به ‏صورت دستوری تعیین می‌شود و ثانیاً، در برخی دوره‌ها پایین‌تر از تورم بوده است. سؤالی که در این شرایط اهمیت دارد، این است که: آیا نرخ هزینه تأمین مالی، در این شرایط می‌تواند بر روی تغییرات سرمایه‌گذاری شرکتی مؤثر باشد یا خیر؟ برای پاسخ به این سؤال از داده‌های صورت‌های مالی ۴۰۱ شرکت در بازه ۱۳۸۳ تا ۱۴۰۲ و در قالب برآورد مدل رگرسیون پانل پویا GMM استفاده شده است. براساس نتایج به‎دست آمده از برآورد کلی نرخ هزینه تأمین مالی، اثر منفی و معنی‌داری بر روی نرخ سرمایه‌گذاری شرکت‌ها دارد؛ اما برآوردهای بیشتر، نشان می‌دهد که این اثرگذاری مربوط‌به دوره‌هایی است که نرخ هزینه تأمین مالی به‌صورت حقیقی مثبت است و در دوره‌هایی که نرخ بهره حقیقی‌ منفی است، این اثر معنی‌دار مشاهده نمی‌شود. بنابراین، سیاست گذار باید درنظر داشته باشد که اثرگذاری تغییر نرخ بانکی بر بخش حقیقی از کانال سرمایه‌گذاری، به مثبت یا منفی بودن نرخ حقیقی بستگی دارد. به ‏علاوه، یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد، اثر نرخ تأمین مالی بر روی سرمایه‌گذاری بر روی دارایی‌های ثابت (ماشین‌الات، زمین و ساختمان) کمتر از سرمایه‌گذاری‌های بر روی دارایی مالی است.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_27939_990c7ce9f046359dac66324e418e8e62.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 1 2026 03 21 Analysis of the Dynamic Effects of Institutional Variables and Intra-Bank Factors on the Stability of the Iranian Banking System: Evidence from the PMG Approach تحلیل اثرات پویای متغیرهای نهادی و عوامل درون بانکی بر ثبات نظام بانکی ایران؛ شواهدی از رویکرد PMG 131 158 27940 10.48311/ecor.2025.27940 FA حمید نصیری دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران 0009-0008-5617-7899 زهرا کریمی تکانلو استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران حسین اصغرپور استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، ایران Journal Article 2025 01 27 Abstract Institutional quality has been recognized as one of the key factors influencing the stability of the banking system in economic studies. This study examines the short-term and long-term effects of various institutional quality indicators and intra-bank factors on the stability of the Iranian banking system. To this end, panel data related to 18 banks listed the Tehran Stock Exchange from 2008 to 2022 were collected and analyzed using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach with Stata and EViews software. The results indicate that the rule of law has a positive and significant relationship with banking stability in both the short and long term. Conversely, the corruption index and economic policy uncertainty exhibit a negative and significant relationship with the banking stability index in the long term. In addition, credit risk and liquidity risk negatively and significantly affect the stability of the banking sector in the long term, though their short-term effects are statistically insignificant. The inflation rate and bank size also have negative and significant long-term relationships with banking stability, while the economic growth rate has a positive and significant long-term effect. These findings highlight the importance of improving institutional quality and reducing economic risks to enhance the stability of Iran’s banking system Aim and Introduction: The confirmed causal relationship between economic growth and banking stability established in economic literature underscores the importance of examining the factors influencing the stability of the banking system. Due to its functional nature, the banking system is continually exposed to various risks that can alter its performance and stability. Institutional quality is one of the key indicators identified by economic and banking scholars as influencing banking system stability in recent studies. The role of institutional variables in economic growth and their impact on banking stability has been emphasized extensively. Institutional deficiencies and the absence of an enabling environment for productive economic activities can lead to declines in production and profitability, reduced economic growth, and an increase in non-performing loans—ultimately diminishing banking stability. According to financial economists, efficient and high-quality institutions play a crucial role in managing financial market risks. In the absence of an appropriate legal and regulatory framework, depositors’ lack of confidence in the banking system weakens the ability of financial markets to attract and retain capital. This can result in capital outflows and reduced domestic investment opportunities. Accordingly, present study aims to examine the effects of various institutional quality indicators, along with intra-bank and macroeconomic variables, on the stability of the Iranian banking system. Methodology: To achieve this aim, panel data for 18 banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange from 2008 to 2022 were collected and analyzed using the PMG approach. The analyses were conducted with Stata and EViews software. Results and Discussion: The empirical findings reveal that the rule of law has a positive and significant relationship with banking stability in both the short and long term. In contrast, the corruption index and economic policy uncertainty have a negative and significant relationship with the banking stability index in the long term. These results suggest that improving institutional quality promotes financial innovation and reduces credit allocation costs, thereby enhancing the stability of the banking system, facilitating economic growth, and mitigating systemic risk. Moreover, credit risk and liquidity risk have negative and significant effects on banking sector stability in the long run, but are insignificant in the short run. The significant long-term negative impacts of these risks can be attributed to the increase in opportunity costs arising from liquidity constraints and problematic receivables. Liquidity risk stemming from uncertainty about future withdrawals and the potential for unexpected deposit outflowscompels banks to maintain high-liquidity, low-yield assets, increasing opportunity costs and reducing overall stability. The negative long-term impact of credit risk can be explained by the accumulation of non-performing loans and blocked assets, which decrease profitability and, consequently, banking. Furthermore, inflation rate and bank size exhibit negative and significant long term relationships with banking stability, while the economic growth rate exerts a positive and significant long-term effect. Conclusion: The stability and sustainability of the banking system and the identification of factors influencing it have become central concerns among scholars and policymakers in recent years. A stable and efficiently functioning banking system is essential for achieving sustainable economic growth, whereas instability can produce adverse macroeconomic, social, and political consequences stemming from crises within the financial system. The results of this study that institutional quality indicators have significant effects on banking stability. Specifically, low economic policy uncertainty is associated with strong institutional quality and low levels of corruption. Therefore, improving institutional quality indicators can enhance banking system stability by fostering economic growth and promoting macroeconomic prosperity. Policymakers should prioritize controlling corruption, strengthening the rule of law, and minimizing economic uncertainty to safeguard depositors, borrowers, and investors. These findings underscore the importance of institutional reform and risk mitigation in promoting the stability of Iran’s banking system. کیفیت نهادی به‌عنوان یکی از عوامل مؤثر بر ثبات نظام بانکی در مطالعات اقتصادی مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. این پژوهش، با هدف بررسی اثرات کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت شاخص‌های مختلف کیفیت نهادی و عوامل درون‌بانکی بر ثبات نظام بانکی ایران انجام شده است. برای این منظور، داده‌های ترکیبی مربوط به ۱۸ بانک فعال دولتی و خصوصی طی سال‌های ۱۳۸۷ تا ۱۴۰۱ جمع‌آوری و با رویکرد میانگین گروهی تلفیقی (PMG) و با استفاده از نرم‌افزار Stata و Eviews تحلیل شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که حاکمیت قانون، رابطه مثبت و معناداری با ثبات بانکی در بلندمدت و کوتاه‌مدت دارد. همچنین شاخص فساد و نا‎اطمینانی سیاست‎های اقتصادی، رابطه منفی و معناداری با شاخص ثبات بانکی در بلند مدت دارند. علاوه بر این، ریسک اعتباری و ریسک نقدینگی، اثرات منفی و معناداری بر ثبات بخش بانکی در بلندمدت دارند؛ اما در کوتاه مدت، تأثیر معناداری ندارند. همچنین، نرخ تورم و اندازه بانک در بلندمدت، رابطه منفی و معناداری دارند، اما نرخ رشد اقتصادی، دارای اثر مثبت و معناداری در بلندمدت بر ثبات بانکی دارد. این یافته‌ها بر اهمیت بهبود کیفیت نهادی و کاهش ریسک‌های اقتصادی در تقویت ثبات نظام بانکی ایران، تأکید دارند.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_27940_e7269f62ac39734ee9cfb1d0bd72cb06.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 1 2026 03 21 Analysis of Government Debt Sustainability in Iran Over the Past Half-Century تحلیل پایداری بدهی‌های دولت در ایران در نیم قرن اخیر 159 198 27941 10.48311/ecor.2025.27941 FA احمد قدسی دهقی دانشجوی دکتری، گروه برنامه‌ریزی و توسعه اقتصادی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران رضا زمانی استادیار، گروه برنامه‌ریزی و توسعه اقتصادی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران محمد قاسمی ششده استادیار، گروه برنامه‌ریزی و توسعه اقتصادی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2025 02 11 Abstract The primary objective of this study is to examine the sustainability of government debt in Iran over the past half-century. Debt sustainability is assessed using the fiscal reaction function approach, employing the vector autoregression (VAR) method for the period 1974-2023. Additionally, a government budget deficit index is defined and calculated, and government debt is estimated using a new method for the period 1974-2014. The findings indicate that a positive shock to government debt initially increases the budget deficit. However, over time, the rate of increase in the deficit declines, and in the long run, the deficit decreases. In other words, the government responds to rising debt by reducing the budget deficit, implying that government debt in Iran is sustainable in the long-term horizon. Furthermore, the study finds that an increase in government debt does not affect the output gap, suggesting that expansionary fiscal policies through debt accumulation have not contributed to long-term economic growth in Iran. Aim and Introduction: The primary objective of this study is to examine the sustainability of government debt in Iran over the past half-century. Government debt sustainability is a key topic in macroeconomics and public finance, focusing on a government’s ability to manage and repay its debt in the long run without experiencing a financial crisis. This issue has gained increasing importance, particularly following global and regional financial crises in recent decades. In this research, government debt sustainability is analyzed using data from the past fifty years. The time series of government debt (1974-2014) is estimated while considering that a portion of the budget deficit has been financed through the banking system. By employing different definitions of the budget deficit, the time series of the Iranian government’s budget deficit (or surplus) is calculated and utilized. Specifically, the budget deficit is defined as the portion of government budget resources financed through debt issuance (borrowing). Methodology This study analyzes the sustainability of government debt using the fiscal reaction function approach. According to this approach, government debt is considered sustainable if the government responds to an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio by raising the budget surplus-to-GDP ratio (or reducing the budget deficit-to-GDP ratio). To assess debt sustainability, three key variables are incorporated into the model: the government debt-to-GDP ratio, the budget surplus-to-GDP ratio, and the output gap. Given the time-series nature of the data, the model is estimated using the VAR method. Moreover, since the total government debt for a given year is determined in the following year and the annual budget is approved in the preceding year, two lags are included in the estimation process. Results and Discussion After estimating the model using the VAR method, impulse response functions (IRFs) were derived to analyze how each of the three variables—government budget surplus, government debt-to-GDP ratio, and output gap—responds to shocks in these variables. The results indicate that following a one-standard-deviation positive shock to the government debt-to-GDP ratio, the budget deficit initially increases but gradually declines in the medium term, eventually converging to a balanced budget in the long run. This finding suggests that, over the 50-year period examined, government debt in Iran has remained sustainable. Moreover, the output gap appears to be neutral in response to positive shocks in government debt and budget surplus, implying that changes in government debt or budget surplus have neither stimulated economic growth nor induced recessions in Iran over the past half-century. This result aligns with the classical economic perspective that long-term economic growth is driven by productivity improvements rather than expansionary fiscal policies such as increased budget deficits or government debt accumulation. Additionally, a positive shock to the output gap initially leads to an increase in the government budget surplus, followed by a slight decline that eventually dissipates over time. This response can be explained by the rise in government revenues— particularly from taxes and oil exports—during economic booms in Iran. Furthermore, a positive output gap shock leads to a reduction in government debt in the first two years, followed by a slight increase, and eventually has a neutral effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio. Conclusion This study employed the fiscal reaction function approach to analyze the sustainability of government debt in Iran. The calculations indicate that the highest debt-to-GDP ratio occurred during the Iran–Iraq War, reaching 114% in 1988. Moreover, this ratio exceeded 50% only during the 1979-1992 period and has not returned to such levels since. To calculate the government budget deficit, revenues from the privatization of state-owned enterprises and withdrawals from the Currency Reserve Fund were subtracted from the operating and capital balance deficit (or added to the surplus). The results show that during most years of the 2000s, when oil revenues surged, the government recorded a budget surplus. In contrast, in the remaining years of the past half-century, the government faced a budget deficit. The IRF analysis reveals that although a positive shock to the government debt-to-GDP ratio initially increases the budget deficit ratio in the short run, this effect gradually diminishes, and in the long run, the budget deficit ratio declines as the debt-to-GDP ratio rises. This finding supports the conclusion that government debt in Iran has remained sustainable over the past 50 years. Additionally, the results indicate that an increase in the output gap leads to a reduction in the budget deficit, which is consistent with expectations, as economic booms generate higher tax and oil revenues. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate that an increase in the budget deficit-to-GDP or debt-to-GDP ratio has a neutral effect on the output gap, implying that expansionary fiscal policies—through higher deficits or government borrowing—have not contributed to long-term economic growth in Iran. هدف اصلی از این تحقیق، بررسی پایداری بدهی‌های دولت در نیم قرن اخیر است. بر همین اساس، پایداری بدهی‌ها مبتنی بر رویکرد تابع واکنش مالی و با استفاده از روش خودرگرسیون برداری برای بازه زمانی 1402-1353 بررسی شده است. همچنین شاخص کسری بودجه دولت تعریف و محاسبه و بدهی‌های دولت نیز با روشی جدید برای بازه 1393-1353 تخمین زده شده است. نتایج تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که یک شوک مثبت به بدهی‌های دولت، باعث می‌شود که در کوتاه‌مدت، کسری بودجه افزایش یابد، اما به مرور، از میزان افزایش در کسری بودجه کاسته شده و در بلندمدت، کسری بودجه کاهش می‌یابد. در واقع، دولت با کاهش کسری بودجه، به افزایش بدهی‌ها واکنش نشان می‌دهد؛ بدین معنا که در اقتصاد ایران و در افق بلندمدت، بدهی‌های دولت، پایدار است. همچنین در این تحقیق، ملاحظه شد که افزایش بدهی‌ها تأثیری بر شکاف تولید ندارد و این امر، نشان می‌دهد که سیاست‌های انبساط مالی از طریق ایجاد بدهی، تأثیری بر رشد اقتصادی بلندمدت در ایران نداشته است.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_27941_5832b159f7b32b3d3a1aa9343dbb994b.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 1 2026 03 21 Fluctuations in Employment, Wages, and Central Bank Reserves نوسانات اشتغال و دستمزد و ذخایر بانک مرکزی 199 228 27942 10.48311/ecor.2025.27942 FA مهلا افشارپور دانشجوی دکتری، گروه آموزشی علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران سید عبدالمجید جلائی استاد، گروه آموزشی علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران حسین اکبری فرد دانشیار، گروه آموزشی علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان 0000-0003-1378-1179 مهدی نجاتی دانشیار، گروه آموزشی علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران Journal Article 2025 02 24 Abstract The labor market is considered one of the fundamental pillars of any country's economy, and its fluctuations can have significant impacts on economic policies, particularly monetary policies and the composition of central bank assets. This study examines the dynamic role of labor market variables in adjusting the optimal composition of the Central Bank of Iran's assets. The primary objective of this research is to analyze how changes in wage levels and employment affect the central bank's asset portfolio and to formulate appropriate policies for optimal asset management.Previous studies have demonstrated that fluctuations in labor market variables, such as wage levels and employment rates, influence liquidity, interest rates, and money demand. These factors ultimately reshape the composition of central bank assets. In this context, the present study employs an optimal control model and the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm to investigate this issue. Aim and Introduction: The labor market is considered one of the fundamental pillars of any country's economy, and its fluctuations can have significant impacts on economic policies, particularly monetary policies and the composition of central bank assets. This study examines the dynamic role of labor market variables in adjusting the optimal composition of the Central Bank of Iran's assets. The primary objective of this research is to analyze how changes in wage levels and employment affect the central bank's asset portfolio and to formulate appropriate policies for optimal asset management.Previous studies have demonstrated that fluctuations in labor market variables, such as wage levels and employment rates, influence liquidity, interest rates, and money demand. These factors ultimately reshape the composition of central bank assets. In this context, the present study employs an optimal control model and the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm to investigate this issue. Methodology: To analyze the impact of labor market variables on the composition of the Central Bank of Iran's assets, economic data from the country covering the period from 1971 to 2023 has been collected. This dataset includes information on wage levels, employment rates, liquidity, interest rates, inflation rates, central bank asset composition, and other macroeconomic indicators. The research methodology is based on the optimal control model and the PSO algorithm, implemented in the Python (Spyder) environment. In this model, labor market variables are considered within a range from 0.5 (representing severe contractionary changes) to 1.5 (indicating severe expansionary changes). This range captures the impact of various labor market policies on the optimal composition of central bank assets. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis has been conducted to examine the effects of different labor market changes on asset composition. Findings: The results indicate that fluctuations in wage levels and employment have varying effects on the composition of the central bank's assets. In times of significant wage increases, money demand rises, leading to higher liquidity growth and intensified consumer spending in the economy. Consequently, the central bank increases the share of debt securities to control inflation and raises the proportion of euros and gold in its asset portfolio to diversify foreign exchange reserves. Conversely, during periods of declining wage levels, the central bank tends to hold more stable assets such as the US dollar and the Swiss franc, reflecting heightened economic uncertainty and reduced risk appetite. The analysis of employment changes also shows that an improved labor market leads to higher money demand, prompting the central bank to increase the issuance of debt securities to control liquidity. Under such conditions, the share of euros, yuan, and debt securities in the central bank's asset composition rises, while the need to hold stable assets such as gold diminishes. In contrast, during periods of declining employment, the central bank exhibits a greater preference for low-risk assets, increasing the share of US dollars, Swiss francs, and gold. This trend reflects a growing demand for safe-haven assets and a decline in confidence in financial markets. Another key finding of this study is that wage increases raise the likelihood of higher liquidity and inflation, leading to an increased share of gold and debt securities in the central bank’s portfolio. On the other hand, during economic recessions and wage declines, the demand for stable currencies such as the US dollar and Japanese yen increases, and the central bank is compelled to issue more debt securities to control liquidity and manage inflation. Economic sanctions also play a crucial role in shaping the central bank’s asset composition. Due to economic constraints and sanctions, Iran has faced difficulties in accessing foreign currencies. As a result, the central bank has leaned towards increasing the share of gold and yuan in its asset portfolio to mitigate the negative effects of foreign exchange market fluctuations. Conclusion and Recommendations: The findings of this study reveal that labor market fluctuations have a dynamic impact on the composition of the Central Bank of Iran's assets. During periods of economic prosperity, rising employment, and higher wages, the central bank exhibits a greater tendency to invest in financial instruments and foreign currencies. In contrast, during economic downturns and declining employment, the central bank adopts more conservative policies, focusing on stable assets such as gold and stronger currencies. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the Central Bank of Iran adopt a dynamic and flexible approach to managing its asset portfolio. During economic booms, increasing the issuance of debt securities and utilizing diverse financial instruments can help control liquidity and curb inflation. In contrast, during recessions, increasing the share of safe reserves and reducing reliance on debt instruments can mitigate financial risks and maintain economic stability.Furthermore, coordination between labor market policies and monetary policies can play a significant role in optimizing the central bank’s asset composition, ensuring that wage and employment fluctuations are directly incorporated into decision-making processes. Finally, leveraging modern financial instruments and diversifying foreign exchange reserves can reduce dependency on specific assets and enhance flexibility in responding to economic shocks. Given Iran’s economic structure and challenges such as inflation, sanctions, and labor market volatility, developing a comprehensive and adaptive strategy for managing central bank asset composition is essential. در این پژوهش، نقش پویای متغیرهای بازار کار بر ترکیب بهینه دارایی‌های بانک مرکزی ایران بررسی شده است. برای این منظور، یک مدل کنترل بهینه با استفاده از داده‌های اقتصادی ایران طی سال‌های ۱۳۵۰ تا ۱۴۰۲ و روش الگوریتم بهینه‌سازی ازدحام ذرات در محیط Spyder برآورد شده است. تحلیل حساسیت متغیرهای مدل مطالعه، نشان میدهد که تغییرات سطح دستمزد و اشتغال، به‌عنوان متغیرهای کلیدی بازار کار، تأثیرات مهمی بر سیاست‌های پولی و ترکیب دارایی‌های بانک مرکزی دارند. یافته ها حاکی از این است که در شرایط افزایش دستمزد، نقدینگی و تورم افزایش یافته و در واکنش به آن، سهم اوراق بدهی و طلا در سبد دارایی‌های بانک مرکزی رشد می‌کند. همچنین، در شرایط کاهش اشتغال، بانک مرکزی به سمت دارایی‌های امن مانند دلار، فرانک سوئیس و طلا متمایل می‌شود. در مقابل، بهبود وضعیت اشتغال منجر به افزایش سهم یورو، یوان و اوراق بدهی می‌گردد. این یافته‌ها بر اهمیت تدوین یک استراتژی پویا و منعطف در مدیریت ذخایر بانک مرکزی تأکید دارند. پیشنهاد می‌شود که در دوره‌های رونق، کنترل نقدینگی از طریق انتشار اوراق بدهی و در دوره‌های رکود، تمرکز بر دارایی‌های باثبات افزایش یابد تا ثبات اقتصادی حفظ شود.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_27942_aa59dfe9cea81f87553c5d9f1046a84f.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 1 2026 03 21 Investigating the Impact of the Commodity Price Index and the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Automotive and Parts Index of the Tehran Stock Exchange بررسی تأثیر شاخص قیمت کامودیتی‌ها و پاندمی کرونا بر شاخص خودرو و قطعه‌سازی بورس تهران 229 267 27943 10.48311/ecor.2025.27943 FA محمد پارسا احترامی دانشجوی دکتری، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران 0009-0000-5297-9482 فاتح حبیبی دانشیار، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران رامین امانی دانشجوی دکتری، گروه توسعه و برنامه‌ریزی اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2025 03 06 Abstract The automotive and parts index of the Tehran Stock Exchange reflects the status of Iran’s automotive and parts industry, which plays a vital role in the national economy. This industry is closely linked to employment, gross domestic product, and the supply chains of various economic sectors. Several factors, such as commodity prices and the COVID-19 pandemic, have significantly affected this industry. Increases in the prices of raw materials such as steel and aluminum raise production costs and reduce the profitability of automotive companies. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decreased demand and disruptions in production and supply chains. This study examines the impact of these two factors on the automotive and parts index of the Tehran Stock Exchange from 2020 to 2023 using the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) method. The results show that the COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp decline in the automotive and parts index; however, over time, the market gradually recovered due to government support policies, a rebound in demand, and increased investment. The study also investigates the impact of strategic metal prices, including aluminum, nickel, zinc, and gold. The increase in aluminum prices led to higher production costs and a decrease in the automotive index, while the effects of nickel and zinc were more volatile. Furthermore, a rise in gold prices, as an indicator of economic risk, initially reduced the automotive index, although this effect diminished over time. Aim and Introduction: The automobile and auto parts industry is one of the most crucial sectors of Iran’s economy, contributing significantly to employment, GDP, and the broader supply chains of various economic segments. The performance of this industry is heavily influenced by external variables, particularly fluctuations in commodity prices and major economic disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Commodity prices, including those of strategic metals such as aluminum, nickel, zinc, and gold, affect production costs and consequently the profitability of automotive companies. Simultaneously, the COVID-19 pandemic introduced severe economic challenges, leading to supply chain disruptions, declining consumer demand, and shifts in investment patterns. Given these complexities, this study aims to investigate the impact of commodity price fluctuations and the COVID-19 pandemic on the automobile and auto parts index of the Tehran Stock Exchange from 2020 to 2023. The research employs the SVAR model to analyze the interplay between these factors and their implications for the automotive industry. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, investors, and industry stakeholders by offering a comprehensive understanding of how external economic shocks influence this critical sector. Methodology This study utilizes the SVAR model to examine the effects of commodity prices and the COVID-19 pandemic on the automobile and auto parts index of the Tehran Stock Exchange. Monthly data from 2020 to 2023 were analyzed, incorporating key variables such as aluminum, nickel, zinc, and gold price indices, alongside COVID-19-related economic indicators. The methodology includes the followin g steps: Data Collection: Time-series data were gathered on the Tehran Stock Exchange automobile and auto parts index, commodity price indices were extracted from Totally Government Javaher Ushering, and macroeconomic indicators related to the pandemic were gathered on WHO. Stationarity Testing: The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests were applied to ensure the stationarity of the variables, as non-stationary time-series data may lead to spurious regression results. Model Specification: The SVAR model was employed to analyze structural shocks, as it allows for the identification of causal relationships among the variables. Impulse Response Function (IRF) Analysis: This analysis examined how a shock in one variable (e.g., a surge in commodity prices) affected the automobile and auto parts index over time. Variance Decomposition: This step determined the proportion of variance in the automobile index attributable to each external factor, including commodity prices and pandemic-related variables. Findings The empirical results of this study reveal several key findings: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic: The onset of the pandemic caused a sharp decline in the Tehran Stock Exchange automobile index due to reduced consumer demand, supply chain disruptions, and heightened economic uncertainty. However, the market gradually recovered as government stimulus measures were implemented, demand rebounded, and investment patterns adjusted. Role of Commodity Prices: Aluminum Prices: Rising aluminum prices increased production costs for automobile manufacturers, leading to reduced profitability and a subsequent decline in the stock index. Over time, however, manufacturers adapted by adjusting pricing strategies and optimizing production efficiency. Nickel and Zinc Prices: The impact of nickel and zinc prices on the automobile index was mixed. While higher nickel prices negatively affected electric vehicle production costs, growing global demand for electric vehicles counterbalanced this effect, leading to fluctuating impacts on the index. Gold Prices: As an indicator of economic uncertainty, gold price fluctuations initially contributed to market instability. During periods of rising gold prices, investors shifted their focus from equity markets to safe-haven assets, causing a temporary decline in the automobile index. Long-Term Market Adjustments: The market exhibited resilience over time, as government interventions and shifts in investment stabilized the sector. The SVAR model results indicated that while short-term shocks caused significant volatility, long-term trends demonstrated a recovery trajectory driven by strategic policy responses and market adaptations. Discussion and Conclusion The findings of this study highlight the complex dynamics between commodity price fluctuations, economic crises, and stock market performance in the automotive sector. The COVID-19 pandemic initially led to a severe decline in the automobile index, reflecting economic stagnation, production halts, and a contraction in consumer demand. However, government interventions such as financial stimulus packages, tax incentives, and liquidity support contributed to market stabilization and eventual recovery. Commodity prices emerged as another significant determinant of the automobile index, with aluminum and nickel prices exerting the most notable effects. Rising aluminum costs directly impacted production expenses, while nickel prices played a dual role by influencing electric vehicle production costs and market expectations. The relationship between gold prices and the automobile index further underscores the impact of investor sentiment on stock market movements. From a policy perspective, several implications emerge from this study: Diversification in Supply Chains: Given the vulnerability of the automotive industry to commodity price shocks, supply chain diversification strategies should be emphasized to reduce dependency on volatile raw material markets. Governmental Support Measures: Policymakers should consider targeted financial incentives, tax relief programs, and investments in local production capabilities to enhance the sector’s resilience against external shocks. Investor Awareness: Market participants should closely monitor global commodity price trends and macroeconomic indicators to make informed investment decisions, particularly in industries susceptible to raw material fluctuations. In conclusion, this research underscores the importance of understanding macroeconomic shocks and commodity market dynamics in shaping the performance of key economic sectors such as the automotive industry. The study’s insights contribute to the broader discourse on economic resilience, investment strategies, and policy formulation in the face of unpredictable global challenges. شاخص خودرو و قطعه‌سازی بورس تهران، نمایانگر وضعیت صنعت خودرو و قطعه‌سازی است که نقشی حیاتی در اقتصاد ایران دارد. این صنعت به اشتغال، تولید ناخالص داخلی و زنجیره تأمین بخش‌های مختلف اقتصادی مرتبط است. افزایش قیمت مواد اولیه مانند فولاد و آلومینیوم، هزینه تولید را بالا برده و سودآوری شرکت‌ها را کاهش می‌دهد. همچنین، پاندمی کرونا موجب کاهش تقاضا و اختلالات در تولید و زنجیره تأمین شده است. در پژوهش حاضر، تأثیر این دو عامل بر شاخص خودرو و قطعه‌سازی بورس تهران در بازه زمانی 1399 تا 1402 با استفاده از روش خودرگرسیون برداری ساختاری بررسی شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که شوک ناشی از پاندمی کرونا در کوتاه‌مدت، اثر منفی آنی بر شاخص خودرو داشته و موجب افت موقت آن گردیده، با این حال، در ادامه و با به‌کارگیری سیاست‌های حمایتی دولت و بازگشت تدریجی تقاضا، شاخص، روند بهبودی نسبی را تجربه کرده است. این یافته‌ها بیانگر تأثیر پویای شرایط بحران بر بازار سهام این صنعت هستند، نه کاهش پایدار در طول دوره مورد بررسی پژوهش.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_27943_f428ed8209a04774dd294d6dc12ae201.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 1 2026 03 21 Investigating the Efficiency of the Regime-Switching Model in the Iranian Exchange Rate Market under Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) with Heterogenous Expectations بررسی کارایی مدل‌های چرخش رژیم در بازار ارز با رویکرد عامل بنیان و لحاظ ناهمگنی رفتاری عاملان اقتصادی در ایران 269 297 27944 10.48311/ecor.2025.27944 FA اصغر ابوالحسنی هستیانی استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام‌ نور، تهران، ایران بیتا شایگانی دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام ‌نور، تهران، ایران مژگان معلمی استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام ‌نور، تهران، ایران سعیده رحیمی دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام‌نور، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2025 03 08 Abstract Following the failure of conventional economic models after the global financial crisis of 2008, economic researchers increasingly turned to agent-based modeling (ABM). One of the key features of this approach is its capacity to analyze the diverse behaviors and perspectives of economic agents, rather than assuming the behavior of a representative agent to be completely rational. Instead, ABM replaces this assumption with bounded rationality. Drawing on this framework, the present study provides a more accurate analysis of exchange rate fluctuations in the Iranian economy by incorporating the heterogeneous expectations of agents regarding exchange rate behavior and by employing both the Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model and the Markov-Switching (MS) model. Since economic dynamics are not determined by a single observable variable, endogenous changes are captured through the MS model in the associated probabilities. Unlike the STR model, the economy in the MS framework experiences three regimes. The first and second regimes, similar to the STR model, represent periods of currency repression and currency jumps, respectively, while the third regime corresponds to turmoil. This turmoil regime characterizes situations in which the exchange rate is traded at exceptionally high levels due to heightened uncertainty, speculation, and limited central bank intervention, resulting in sharp fluctuations. Moreover, the presence of currency repression and the substantial gap between the market exchange rate and the fundamental exchange rate—conditions that foster exchange rate instability and turmoil—appears to contribute to the formation of heterogeneous expectations among market participants Aim and Introduction: In economies such as Iran, where the exchange rate serves as a nominal anchor, fluctuations in this variable can be a significant source of macroeconomic instability. Following the limitations of conventional economic models revealed by the 2008 global financial crisis, researchers have increasingly focused on ABM. A notable feature of ABM is its ability to analyze diverse behaviors and perspectives of economic agents, replacing the representative agent assumption and complete rationality with bounded rationality. According to the literature, the present study seeks to provide a more accurate understanding of the dynamics of exchange rate fluctuations in the Iranian economy by incorporating the heterogeneous expectations of agents concerning exchange rate behavior. Methodology: This paper aims to investigate the efficiency of the regime-switching model in the Iranian exchange rate market under the framework of ABM with heterogeneous expectations. In the first stage, we estimate the real exchange rate series for the period from 1388:1 to 1400:12 (March 2009 to March 2022). This series is calculated using the monetary approach and the cointegration method. After applying the most relevant tests to determine the most robust model specification, the results of the cointegration tests indicate that the ordinary least squares (OLS) method provides the most robust results. Next, we use the gap between the estimated series and the unofficial exchange rate series published by the Central Bank of Iran to investigate exchange rate misalignment in the Iranian foreign exchange market. In the following step, we introduce three different agents with heterogeneous expectations that characterize the Iranian exchange rate market. These agents are divided into three categories: chartists, fundamentalists, and market makers. We illustrate the behavioral differences and strategies of these agents through appropriate equations. We then apply three mechanisms. The first model assumes that the proportion of each agent type is a function of its relative past performance. The second model allows agents to switch their strategies based on macroeconomic fundamentals. The third model, proposed by Chiarella et al. (2012), assumes that agents’ beliefs depend on an MS process. Based on the monthly bilateral exchange rate between the Iranian rial (IRR) and the U.S. dollar (USD), we compare these three mechanisms empirically. This study employs both the STR model and the MS model. Since economic systems are not solely driven by a single observable variable, the endogenous changes in model dynamics are captured through the MS framework. Unlike the STR model, the MS model reveals three distinct regimes. The first and second regimes, similar to the STR framework, represent currency repression and currency jumps, respectively, whereas the third regime reflects turmoil. This regime denotes a situation in which the exchange rate trades at very high levels due to widespread uncertainty, speculation, and limited central bank intervention, leading to sharp fluctuations. The coexistence of currency repression and the large divergence between the market and fundamental exchange rates—factors that foster currency instability and turmoil—appears to play a critical role in shaping heterogeneous expectations. Results and Findings: Our results demonstrate that different types of agents exist in the Iranian exchange rate market. These agents hold heterogeneous behavioral expectations and act according to their own beliefs, employing distinct strategies that collectively influence market outcomes. Thus, under an ABM incorporating behavioral heterogeneity, excessive exchange rate volatility can be effectively explained. Each of the three mechanisms applied to model agents’ decision-making dynamics proves efficient in explaining exchange rate volatility in the Iranian market. We then evaluate the performance of the three switching mechanisms in estimating behavioral heterogeneity. The behavioral heterogeneity model (BHM) switching mechanism highlights the importance of past performance in determining the dynamic weights of heterogeneous trading rules. This mechanism, which estimates market fractions of each agent based on recent realized returns and past strategy performance, performs particularly well in modeling the Iranian exchange market. The STR model, which incorporates macroeconomic variables into the logistic function (with the real exchange rate ultimately selected as the best explanatory variable), reveals two distinct regimes for our monthly time series. The results show that this model possesses strong in-sample explanatory power. On the other hand, since economic dynamics are not captured solely by observable variables, the MS model identifies endogenous regime changes within the transition probabilities. Unlike the STR model, the MS framework detects three regimes: currency repression, currency jumps, and turmoil. The turmoil regime corresponds to periods of extreme exchange rate volatility caused by uncertainty, speculation, and insufficient central bank intervention. Additionally, the pronounced gap between the market and fundamental exchange rates—accompanied by episodes of currency repression—appears to significantly contribute to the formation of heterogeneous expectations. در پی ناتوانی مدل‌سازی‌های متداول اقتصادی در توضیح نوسانات نرخ ارز، بعد از بحران جهانی 2008 مدل‌سازی عامل بنیان مدنظر محققان اقتصادی قرار گرفته است. از ویژگی‌های این مدل‌سازی نوین، تحلیل رفتارها و دیدگاه‌های متفاوت کارگزاران اقتصادی به‌جای رفتار کارگزار نمونه و جایگزینی فرض عقلانیت کامل با عقلانیت محدود می‌باشد. با توجه به ادبیات موضوع یاد شده، در این مطالعه، با وارد کردن دیدگاه‌های متفاوت کارگزاران درخصوص رفتار نرخ ارز، تحلیل پویایی های نوسانات نرخ ارز اقتصاد ایران با دقت بیشتری ارائه، و به بررسی چگونگی سازوکار انتقال انتظارات در بازار ارز ‌پرداخته شده است. در این راستا، کارآیی سه مدل چرخش رژیم را در برآورد ناهمگنی رفتاری در بازار ارز مقایسه می‌شود. این سه مدل کارگزاران ناهمگن رفتاری، عناصر متفاوتی را در مدل‌های چرخش رژیم با مکانیزم‌های مختلف قرار می‌دهند. مدل اول، چرخش استراتژی کارگزاران را به عنوان تابعی از عملکرد نسبی گذشته در نظر می‌گیرد. در مدل دوم، با استفاده از رویکرد رگرسیون انتقال هموار، امکان تغییر استراتژی‌های کارگزاران برمبنای متغیرهای بنیادی اقتصاد کلان بررسی شده است و درنهایت، مدل سوم، باورهای ناهمگن کارگزاران را به فرایند مارکوف سوئیچینگ وابسته می‌داند. یافته‌های این پژوهش، نشان می‌دهد، ناهمگنی رفتاری در استراتژی‌های مبادله مبادله‌کنندگان در بازار ارز، می‌تواند نوسانات مازاد در بازار ارز را به ‎خوبی توضیح دهد. بررسی کارآیی مدل‌های چرخش رژیم به‌کارگرفته شده نیز نشان می‌دهد، مدل رگرسیون انتقال هموار در میان مدل‌های به‌کارگرفته شده، بهترین کارآیی تخمین درون‌نمونه‌ای را دارد.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_27944_ef6f4e4fca9990a2896ea9cdf70fbe98.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 1 2026 03 21 Determining ICT Subsidies for Achieving Environmental Goals of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in Iran and Middle Eastern Countries: A RICE Approach تعیین یارانه فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات جهت تحقق اهداف زیست‌محیطی هیئت بین‌دولتی تغییر اقلیم در ایران و کشورهای خاورمیانه: رهیافت RICE 299 330 27945 10.48311/ecor.2025.27945 FA ندا جمشیدی دانشجوی دکتری رشته اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران روح اله شهنازی استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران ابراهیم هادیان استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران سکینه اوجی مهر دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران Journal Article 2025 03 26 Abstract In response to global commitments to address climate change, economic policies must align with the goal of reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and achieving the targets set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is increasingly recognized as a strategic tool influencing both economic productivity and environmental sustainability. Assessing the appropriate level of economic support for ICT in alignment with IPCC goals is, therefore, a critical step toward managing this technology for sustainable development. This study aims to estimate the ICT subsidy levels required to achieve IPCC environmental targets using the Regional Integrated Climate–Economy (RICE) model. It also investigates the impact of ICT on economic growth and CO₂ emissions. The model is calibrated for Iran and Middle Eastern countries using structural parameters developed by Nordhaus in 2013, and simulations are conducted under four scenarios: (1) a baseline scenario, (2) baseline with ICT, (3) a 2°C temperature constraint scenario (aligned with IPCC goals), and (4) a 2°C scenario with ICT integration. Results show that ICT subsidies are lowest in the baseline scenario and increase significantly under the 2°C constraint scenario. ICT implementation leads to higher economic growth, lower CO₂ concentrations, reduced global temperature, and decreased carbon pricing compared to non-ICT scenarios. These findings highlight the need for targeted ICT support through subsidies for low-carbon digital projects, improved infrastructure in underserved regions, and tax incentives for technology-based businesses—advancing CO₂ reduction, IPCC compliance, and economic development simultaneously Aim and Introduction: In response to global commitments to combat climate change, economic policies must be structured to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and achieve the objectives set by the IPCC. One of the key instruments in this context is ICT, which significantly affects both economic productivity and environmental sustainability. ICT enhances efficiency across various economic sectors while simultaneously contributing to emission reduction strategies. Therefore, evaluating economic support for ICT in alignment with IPCC objectives is crucial for managing this technology effectively toward sustainable development. This study aims to quantify the ICT subsidies necessary to meet the environmental targets of the IPCC using the RICE model. It also examines the impact of ICT on economic growth and CO₂ emissions. Methodology: To achieve the research objectives, this study utilizes the theoretical framework of the RICE model, specifically applied to Iran and Middle Eastern countries. The structural parameters of the model are adopted from Nordhaus (2013), and simulations are conducted under four different scenarios: 1) Baseline scenario – reflecting business-as-usual economic growth without ICT integration. 2) Baseline with ICT – incorporating ICT development into the economic system. 3) 2 °C temperature constraint – aligning with the IPCC’s climate target but excluding ICT considerations. 4) 2 °C constraint with ICT – integrating ICT in a constrained climate regime. These scenarios are used to estimate the ICT subsidy levels required to achieve environmental goals while considering their effects on economic growth and CO2 emissions. The model incorporates dynamic interactions among economic activities, technological advancements, and climate policies, providing a comprehensive analysis of how ICT subsidies can influence regional economic and environmental outcomes. Findings: The results present a compelling case for policy-driven ICT expansion. In both Iran and Middle Eastern countries, the baseline scenarios yield the lowest ICT subsidy requirements. However, when climate constraints are introduced—particularly the IPCC’s 2°C target—the need for subsidies increases substantially. This suggests that more stringent environmental goals necessitate stronger financial support for clean technology transitions. Importantly, ICT implementation not only reduces CO₂ concentrations but also generates significant positive effects on regional economic growth. By enhancing productivity and enabling low-carbon innovation, ICT lowers the average global temperature trajectory while improving macroeconomic performance. Moreover, scenarios incorporating ICT exhibit notably lower carbon prices, indicating that ICT adoption serves as a cost-effective mitigation mechanism. In the Middle East, where digital infrastructure is expanding rapidly but unevenly, the required subsidies are higher than in Iran, reflecting differences in baseline ICT penetration, governance capacity, and institutional readiness. Nevertheless, both regions demonstrate improved economic outcomes and environmental indicators when ICT is integrated under constrained scenarios. Discussion and Conclusion: The integration of ICT into environmental–economic models such as RICE underscores its strategic value in advancing sustainable development. By facilitating real-time emissions monitoring, optimizing energy consumption, and digitizing traditionally resource-intensive sectors, ICT can act as a catalyst for green growth. The study’s findings underscore the necessity of tailored ICT subsidy programs that reflect each region’s unique developmental challenges and opportunities. Crucially, the simulations indicate that ICT does not merely function as a supportive tool—it actively transforms the policy landscape. Its capacity to lower the marginal cost of carbon abatement and reduce dependency on fossil-fuel-driven growth models makes it indispensable for climate-smart policy design. In scenarios where ICT is present, the economic system demonstrates greater resilience to climate shocks and stricter emissions regulations, supporting the notion that digital transformation can be harmonized with ecological sustainability. Furthermore, the study identifies a strong inverse relationship between ICT proliferation and CO₂ intensity, particularly when subsidies are optimized. This finding supports the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, which posits an inverted U-shaped relationship between environmental degradation and economic growth. Environmental degradation initially increases with growth but declines after reaching a certain level of technological maturity and institutional efficiency. ICT accelerates this turning point by fostering cleaner production methods and smarter consumption patterns. From a policy perspective, this research advocates for smart, region-specific subsidy strategies that maximize the environmental return on investment. Subsidies should prioritize digital infrastructure in underserved areas, incentivize private-sector innovation, and be complemented by measures such as carbon pricing and regulatory reform. In conclusion, the study confirms that ICT is a critical enabler in the global response to climate change. When supported by appropriate economic incentives, it not only reduces greenhouse gas emissions but also drives inclusive economic growth. For countries such as Iran and those in the Middle East, where climate risks are high and digital transitions are ongoing, investing in ICT subsidies is not merely a policy option—it is a strategic imperative. در راستای تعهدات جهانی مقابله با تغییرات اقلیمی، سیاست‌های اقتصادی باید به کاهش انتشار کربن دیاکسید (CO2) و تحقق اهداف هیئت بین‌دولتی تغییر اقلیم (IPCC) کمک کنند. یکی از ابزارهای مورد توجه در این زمینه، فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات (ICT) است که ممکن است بر بهره‌وری اقتصادی و اثرات زیست‌محیطی تأثیرگذار باشد. هدف از این پژوهش، برآورد میزان یارانه بر ICT جهت تحقق اهداف زیستمحیطی IPCC در چهارچوب مدل منطقه های ادغام اقلیم و اقتصاد (RICE) و نیز بررسی اثر ICT بر رشد اقتصادی و انتشار CO2 نیز می‌باشد. برای این منظور، با استفاده از پارامترهای ساختاری مدل نوردهاوس (2013)، 4 سناریو (پایه، پایه با اعمال ICT، محدودیت دمایی ۲ درجه (مطابق با هدف IPCC)، و محدودیت دمایی ۲ درجه با اعمال ICT) برای مناطق ایران و کشورهای خاورمیانه شبیه سازی شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهند که در هر دو منطقه مورد بررسی، در سناریوی پایه، یارانه ICT در پایین‌ترین مقدار خود قرار دارد، اما در سناریوی محدودیت دمایی، این یارانه به‌صورت تصاعدی افزایش می‌یابد. همچنین، ICT منجر به افزایش رشد اقتصادی، کاهش غلظت کربن، کاهش قیمت کربن و کاهش دمای متوسط شده است.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_27945_0c9aecd2692cfe28067bb0eba9ae409a.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 1 2026 03 21 Examining the Role of Institutional Quality in Moderating the Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Economic Growth in Iran بررسی نقش کیفیت نهادی در تعدیل اثرات عدم قطعیت سیاست‌های اقتصادی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران 331 356 27946 10.48311/ecor.2025.27946 FA علی سایه میری دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران جواهر لطیفی کارشناسی ارشد رشته اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علوم و فنون دریایی، خرمشهر، خوزستان، ایران اسما شیرخانی دانشجوی دکتری رشته اقتصادسنجی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران فهیمه سیفی دانشجوی دکتری رشته اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد زنجان، زنجان، ایران وحید زارعی کارشناسی ارشد رشته اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، همدان، ایران Journal Article 2025 04 08 Abstract Global policy uncertainty refers to situations in which economic decision-making faces significant challenges and the future of the economy becomes unpredictable due to various factors, such as global changes and policy fluctuations. This study examines the impact of institutional quality and global policy uncertainty on Iran’s economic growth from 1984 to 2021 using the discrete threshold regression model. The results show that Iran falls into two distinct institutional regimes, with a threshold level of 4.66. In the first regime, where institutional quality is below the threshold, an increase in global policy uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on economic growth. Conversely, in the second regime, where institutional quality exceeds the threshold, the negative effects of global policy uncertainty are moderated, and economic growth improves. The findings also indicate that the effects of globalization and physical investment on economic growth depend on the level of institutional quality. Under weak institutional conditions, globalization and physical investment positively influence economic growth, while institutional quality exerts a negative effect. However, once institutional quality surpasses the threshold, its positive effects on growth strengthen, and the impacts of globalization and physical investment improve. These findings underscore the importance of institutional reforms and improving institutional quality to reduce economic vulnerability and optimize the benefits derived from global opportunities. Aim and Introduction: One of the fundamental challenges facing Iran’s economy in recent decades has been the simultaneous experience of economic policy instability and structural weaknesses in its economic institutions. Economic policy uncertainty (EPU), by reducing the ability to predict future outcomes, decreases investment incentives, weakens consumer expectations, and ultimately slows the rate of economic growth. In the economic literature, this uncertainty not only has short-term consequences but also influences the structure of production, trade, and investment in the long term. Such uncertainty—especially in countries like Iran, which are exposed to both internal and external economic crises—can lead to reductions in gross domestic product (GDP), increases in unemployment, and declines in the quality of life. Despite the wide-ranging implications of uncertainty, the key question remains whether institutional structures can play a protective role against its adverse effects. The institutional quality index (INS) is recognized as a key factor in facilitating or hindering economic processes. Strong institutions promote transparency, reduce corruption, and strengthen public trust, thereby moderating the negative effects of economic instability. Accordingly, this study analyzes the role of institutional quality in moderating the adverse effects of policy uncertainty on Iran’s economic growth from 1984 to 2021. In addition, the study considers variables such as globalization and physical capital. Globalization—by expanding trade exchanges and facilitating technology transfer—can support economic processes and create opportunities for sustainable development. Physical capital (K), as one of the main factors of production and economic growth, particularly in infrastructure sectors, plays a fundamental role in mitigating instability and enhancing growth potential. Thus, this research seeks to provide a comprehensive picture of the factors influencing Iran’s economic growth and offer potential strategies to improve its economic performance. Methodology: Using the endogenous growth framework and employing the Discrete Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) regression method, this study analyzes the effects of explanatory variables on economic growth under two different institutional regimes. The threshold variable is the INS, calculated as the average of five key institutional indicators standardized to a range of 0 to 10. Other independent variables include physical capital, the Economic Globalization Index (KOFGI), and the World Uncertainty Index (WUI). The annual data were obtained from reputable international sources, including the World Bank, the KOF Globalization Database, and the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), covering the period from 1984 to 2021. To ensure analytical accuracy, the study first applies the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test, followed by Pesaran’s cointegration test, and finally, the Brock–Dechert–Scheinkman (BDS) test to examine the existence of nonlinear relationships in the model. The results confirm cointegration among the variables and the presence of nonlinear relationships, justifying the use of a threshold model. Results and Discussion: The results of the threshold regression model indicate a threshold value of 4.66 for the INS. In the regime below this level, institutional quality exerts a negative and significant effect on economic growth, implying that inefficient institutions not only fail to support growth but may also hinder economic development. Conversely, when institutional quality exceeds the threshold, the coefficient becomes positive and significant, highlighting the constructive role of effective institutions in stimulating growth. The WUI exhibits contrasting effects depending on the institutional regime. Under weak institutional conditions, its impact on growth is negative and significant; however, under strong institutional conditions, the effect turns positive. This finding underscores the protective capacity of robust institutions in mitigating external shocks and global instability. Physical capital exerts a positive and significant effect in both regimes, though its impact is stronger under weak institutional conditions. This suggests that in the absence of efficient institutions, economic growth relies more heavily on the accumulation of physical capital. Similarly, the KOFGI has a positive effect in both regimes, but its influence is more pronounced in the strong institutional regime. Capable institutions enhance the productivity of global integration by facilitating foreign investment, improving the business environment, and increasing transparency. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that institutional quality in Iran not only serves as an independent determinant of economic growth but also plays a vital role in shaping the magnitude and direction of other macroeconomic variables. The identified threshold level delineates the boundary between institutional efficiency and inefficiency. Surpassing this threshold could mark a turning point, enabling Iran’s economy to better withstand policy and global fluctuations. Therefore, strengthening economic governance, reducing corruption, enhancing transparency, and ensuring stability in policy decision-making should be prioritized by policymakers. Furthermore, aligning institutional reforms with globalization processes and promoting investment in physical infrastructure are complementary strategies for achieving sustainable economic growth. Ultimately, this research emphasizes that without fundamental institutional reforms, no economic policy can effectively and sustainably foster economic growth. عدم‌قطعیت سیاست‌های جهانی، به شرایطی اشاره دارد که در آن، تصمیم‌گیری‌های اقتصادی با چالش‌های جدی روبرو می‌شوند و آینده اقتصاد به دلیل عوامل مختلف، همچون تغییرات جهانی و نوسانات سیاستی، نامشخص است. در این تحقیق، با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون آستانه‌ای گسسته، تأثیر کیفیت نهادی و عدم‌قطعیت سیاست‌های جهانی بر رشد اقتصادی کشور ایران طی دوره 1984 تا 2021 مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج تحقیق، نشان می‌دهند که کشور ایران در دو رژیم متمایز نهادی با سطح آستانه 66/4 قرار دارد. در رژیم نخست، که کیفیت نهادی پایین‌تر از سطح آستانه است، افزایش عدم‌قطعیت سیاست‌های جهانی، تأثیر منفی و قابل‎توجهی بر رشد اقتصادی دارد. در مقابل، در رژیم دوم که کیفیت نهادی از سطح آستانه فراتر می‌رود، اثرات منفی عدم‌قطعیت سیاست‌های جهانی، تعدیل شده و رشد اقتصادی بهبود می‌یابد. نتایج همچنین نشان می‌دهند که تأثیر جهانی‌شدن و سرمایه‌گذاری فیزیکی بر رشد اقتصادی به سطح کیفیت نهادی وابسته است. در شرایط نهادی ضعیف، جهانی‌شدن و سرمایه‌گذاری فیزیکی، اثر مثبت و کیفیت نهادی اثر منفی بر رشد اقتصادی دارند؛ اما با عبور از آستانه کیفیت نهادی، اثرات مثبت کیفیت نهادی بر رشد تقویت شده و تأثیرات جهانی‌شدن و سرمایه‌گذاری فیزیکی بهبود می‌یابد. این یافته‌ها بر اهمیت اصلاحات نهادی و بهبود کیفیت نهادی برای کاهش آسیب‌پذیری اقتصادی و بهره‌برداری بهینه از فرصت‌های جهانی تأکید دارند.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_27946_e52265108325dab81ab318b51c5c83a1.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 1 2026 03 21 Calculation of the Virtual Water Footprint in Trade with Major Partners of Iran’s Economy: An Input–Output Approach محاسبه ردپای آب مجازی در تجارت با شرکای تجاری عمده اقتصاد ایران: رهیافت داده-ستانده 357 389 27947 10.48311/ecor.2025.27947 FA محمد رحیمی قاسم آبادی گروه اقتصاد، واحد کرمان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمان، ایران رضا زینل زاده گروه اقتصاد، واحد کرمان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، کرمان، ایران زین العابدین صادقی دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران محسن زاینده رودی گروه اقتصاد، واحد کرمان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، کرمان، ایران Journal Article 2025 04 18 Abstract This paper examines the virtual water footprint in international trade with major trading partners of the Iranian economy using an input–output approach. Utilizing 2016 data, the study quantifies water consumption across different sectors of Iran’s economy and evaluates the impact of trade on water resource management. The results indicate that Iran is a net importer of virtual water due to severe water constraints—meaning that the amount of water required to produce imported goods exceeds that used for exported goods. The agricultural sector accounts for approximately 90% of total national water consumption. This study underscores the significance of Iran’s trade relationships with countries such as China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Iraq in shaping virtual water imports and exports. It further recommends that policymakers design strategies to enhance water productivity and promote sustainable management of international trade in light of Iran’s limited water resources. Aim and Introduction: Water scarcity and food security constitute pressing global challenges requiring comprehensive research and policy attention. Assessing the efficiency of water use and the virtual water footprint within Iran’s international trade framework is essential for improving water resource management and ensuring national food security. Virtual water trade refers to the transfer of embedded water—i.e., the water used in the production of goods and food—between nations. This concept reflects the comparative water costs and resource endowments of different economies. It enables water-scarce countries such as Iran to import water-intensive products from regions with more efficient water management, thereby conserving domestic water resources and optimizing consumption patterns. Accordingly, this study investigates Iran’s virtual water footprint in the context of international trade, focusing on its principal trading partners and examining how trade structure influences national water sustainability. Methodology: To quantify virtual water and the national water footprint, this study first calculates direct and indirect water withdrawals for major economic sectors by dividing each sector’s total water consumption by its output. The total water footprint for each product is determined as the sum of domestic and foreign components, representing the total virtual water embedded in national consumption. The net import of virtual water is calculated by subtracting virtual water exports from virtual water imports. The Gross Virtual Water Imports (GVWI) is defined as the sum of commodity imports (CI) multiplied by the Commodity Virtual Water Content (CVWC) of each product. The equations for estimating Total Global Virtual Water Imports (TGVWI) and Total Global Virtual Water Exports (TGVWE) are expressed as follows: where n represents the number of countries and c represents the number of products. The Total Net Global Virtual Water Trade (TNVWT) is calculated as: TNVWT=TGVWI−TGVWE The water trade balance is thus the difference between the volume of virtual water imported and that exported by a country or region. Findings: The agricultural sector exhibits the highest import value (318196 billion rials) but comparatively lower virtual water imports. The industrial production and services sectors show smaller final and intermediate virtual water imports relative to their total import values. Although the oil and mining sector records the highest export value, its final virtual water exports remain low compared with its total exports. The construction sector displays the smallest final virtual water exports among sectors with positive net exports. In 2021, Iran’s total water footprint amounted to 523668 million cubic meters (MCM), with agriculture as the dominant contributor and the oil/mining sector as the smallest. The foreign water footprint accounted for 50028 MCM of the total. Agriculture, oil, mining, and services exhibited the lowest water consumption multipliers. Sectors with negative net exports—namely agriculture, industrial production, and services—showed positive water trade balances, while others exhibited negative balances. Agriculture recorded the highest positive water trade balance (1563 MCM), whereas transportation had the lowest (–-157 MCM). Overall2021, Iran was a net importer of virtual water, with a total water trade balance of approximately 1658 MCM. In 2021, Iran’s imports from major trading partners totaled USD 38574 million (78% of total imports), and exports amounted to USD 38572 million (57% of total exports). The United Arab Emirates (UAE) was the largest import partner (30%), followed by China and Turkey. China accounted for 27% of exports, and Iraq for 11%. Iraq, Turkey, India, and China maintained positive net exports to Iran, with Iraq and China leading, while the UAE had the lowest. Iran imported 11980 MCM of virtual water overall, of which 9449 MCM came from major trading partners. Virtual water exports totaled 12027 MCM, with 6941 MCM directed to those partners. Iran recorded positive virtual water net exports to China, India, Turkey, and Iraq, but negative ones with Germany, the Netherlands, Russia, and the UAE. Overall, Iran’s virtual water trade was nearly balanced, with a slight net export of 60 MCM. In the agricultural sector, the largest final virtual water imports originated from Russia and Germany. For oil and mining, China and Turkey were the main sources. The industrial production sector imported most heavily from China and the UAE, while China and Turkey led in electricity, water, and gas supply. The UAE dominated imports in services, transportation, and residential construction. Except for Iraq, the industrial production sector accounted for the highest virtual water imports across all partner countries. Conversely, Iran’s agricultural sector exported the most virtual water to China and Iraq. The oil and mining sector’s primary virtual water exports were directed to China, while the industrial and mining sectors also exported substantially to China and Iraq. The oil and mining sectors were the dominant virtual water exporters to most countries except Iraq and Russia, where the industrial sector prevailed. The UAE mainly received exports from mining, industrial production, and agriculture. Overall, Iran showed positive net exports in agriculture, oil, and construction, but negative net exports in other sectors. Discussion and Conclusion: In 2021, Iran was a net virtual water importer, with imports (11980 MCM) far exceeding exports (12027 MCM), underscoring its dependence on imported water through traded goods. Agriculture exhibited the highest direct water consumption and virtual water content, while services, oil, and mining showed the lowest. Despite its intensive water use, agriculture had the smallest final and intermediate virtual water imports, whereas industrial production and services accounted for larger virtual water shares due to higher import volumes. The agricultural sector contributed the largest domestic and national water footprint. Transportation and construction demonstrated the highest (least efficient) water consumption multipliers, while agriculture remained the most efficient. Although indirect water use in services and industry was lower than in agriculture, it still exerted a notable cumulative impact on national water consumption. 2021Among major trading partners, the UAE contributed over 3673 MCM of virtual water imports, making it Iran’s top source. Russia supplied the most agricultural virtual water, India and Germany dominated mining and oil, and China led in industrial production. Iraq and Japan were significant contributors to the services sector. These findings highlight Iran’s dependence on virtual water imports—particularly agricultural products—to meet its domestic water needs. However, agricultural productivity remains low, and water management is inefficient. Overemphasis on agricultural self-sufficiency could exacerbate water scarcity. Policymakers should therefore revise trade policies concerning water-intensive products, favoring imports of high-virtual-water commodities while promoting exports of low-virtual-water goods. Such strategies would alleviate domestic water stress and enhance overall water security. این مقاله، به بررسی رد پای آب مجازی در تجارت بین المللی با شرکای تجاری عمده اقتصاد ایران و تحلیل آن از طریق رویکرد داده-ستانده می پردازد. بدین منظور، با استفاده از داده های سال 1400، مقدار آب مصرفی بخش های مختلف اقتصادی ایران و اثرات تجارت بر مدیریت منابع آبی مورد محاسبه قرار گرفته است. نتایج نشان می دهد که ایران، به دلیل محدودیت های آبی، واردکننده خالص آب مجازی است؛ به این معنا که مقدار آب مورد نیاز برای تولید محصولات وارداتی بیشتر از مقدار آبی است که برای تولیدات محصولات صادراتی استفاده میشود. بیشترین مصرف آب مربوط به بخش کشاورزی است که در حدود 90 درصد از منابع آبی کشور را به‎ خود اختصاص داده است. این مطالعه، بر نقش کشورهای شریک تجاری ایران مانند چین، امارات و عراق در واردات و صادرات آب مجازی تأکید دارد و به سیاست گذاران پیشنهاد می کند تا با توجه به محدودیت منابع آبی، راهکارهایی برای بهبود بهره وری آب و مدیریت پایدار تجارت بین‌المللی ارائه دهند.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_27947_f335bf480fd91007c3c81a67a1dd4294.pdf