دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 24 3 2024 08 22 Climate Change Risk, Performance, and Value Added in Agricultural Sector ریسک تغییرات اقلیمی، عملکرد تغییر اقلیم و ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی 1 30 13607 10.22034/24.3.1 FA رامین امانی دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه توسعه و برنامه ریزی اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت ‌مدرس، تهران، ایران زانکو قربانی دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران زانا مظفری استادیار، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران Journal Article Introduction Climate change can occur once in a thousand years. However, recent abrupt and severe climate shifts have emerged as a significant concern within societies and a substantial environmental challenge. Escalating temperature, polar ice melting, global sea level rise, and shifting weather patterns, all stem from climate change. One of the pathways towards achieving sustainable development involves the advancement of the agricultural sector, a vital economic segment. Progress in almost all sectors of economy, even the industry sector is closely correlated to growth in agriculture. Looking at the experiences of leading countries in agricultural production, the utilization of capital equipment across various agricultural activities has proven to enhance the productivity of factors like land, labor, and management. This, in turn, results in decreased production costs, increased investment returns, surplus domestic supply, and expanded agricultural product exports. The world confronts a climate change crisis due to widespread and damaging human pursuits aimed at resource acquisition. The repercussions of climate change, including rising sea levels, global warming, floods, droughts, and landslides, pose substantial threats to human existence. Among economic sectors, agriculture holds a particularly critical role in ensuring the sustenance of human populations. Yet, climate change places the agricultural sector under a severe risk, jeopardizing its capacity to provide food for humanity. Hence, the principal objective of this current study is to explore the impact of two climatic variables i.e. climate change risk and climate change performance index, on the added value of the agricultural sector across 54 member countries of the climate change performance index. These countries are categorized into three groups: strong performance (16 countries), moderate performance (28 countries), and poor performance (10 countries). The study period spans from 2010 to 2020, and the quantile regression method is employed on panel data to conduct the analysis. Methodology The general definition of quantile regression states that if the linear regression model is assumed as the following equation, we have: yi=ˊxiβτ+uτi. 0<τ<1 (1) Quantτ(yi|xi)=xiβτ (2) Equation (2) shows the τth conditional quantile function of the y distribution under the condition of random variables x in which the following condition holds: Quantτ(uτi|xi)=0 (3) In the quantile regression structure, the effect of observable features on the conditional distribution is estimated through the process of minimizing the absolute value of the error element. To estimate the model coefficients, the absolute value of the errors with appropriate weighting is used: Min Σyi≥ˊxiβ τyi- ˊxiβ+Σyi<ˊxiβ 1-τyi- ˊxiβ (4) As mentioned, quantile regression is resistant to outliers. However, this method is not intended to recognize the heterogeneity of a country. In this research, the quantile panel regression method with fixed effects is used, which makes it possible to estimate the effects of conditional heterogeneous covariance of inflation rate stimuli, thus controlling invisible individual heterogeneities. A suitable method has been suggested by Koner (2004) for solving such problems. He considers invisible fixed effects as parameters that are jointly estimated with the effects of auxiliary variables for different quantiles. The unique feature of this method is that it introduces a penalty term in the minimization to address the computational problem of a set of parameters; The parameters are calculated as follows: min(α.β)Σk=1KΣt=1TΣi=1N wkρτkyit-αi-xitTβτk+λΣiNαi (6) In equation (6), i represents the number of countries (N), T represents the index for the number of observations of each country, K represents the quantile index, x is the matrix of explanatory variables, and ρτk is the quantile loss function. Also, Wk represents the relative weight for the kth quantile. λ is an adjustment parameter that reduces individual effects to zero to improve the performance of β estimates. If λ tends to zero, the penalty term is eliminated and a conventional fixed effects estimator is obtained. Whereas if λ tends to infinity, an estimate of the model is obtained without fixed effects. In this research, λ = 1 (Damette and Delacote, 2012). Results and Discussion The results of this research show that both climate change performance index variables and climate change risk have a positive and significant effect on the added value of the agricultural sector in all three functional groups and all deciles. This means that an increase in climate change performance and an increase in climate change risk, both of which represent the improvement of climate conditions in a country, which have a positive effect on the added value of the agricultural sector. Conclusion Nowadays, climate change crisis has become one of the most critical challenges facing humanity in the present century. Scientists and researchers attribute the main cause of climate change to destructive human activities aimed at obtaining more resources to meet their needs and desires. Global warming, rising sea and ocean levels, landslides, floods, and droughts are just some of the consequences related to the climate change crisis. Within this context, agricultural sector, as one of the most important economic sectors for providing human food, is under the influence of climate change and could seriously endanger the future of humanity due to food resource scarcity. The main objective of this research is to examine the impact of two climate variables, namely climate change risk and climate change performance index, on the value added by the agricultural sector in 54 countries categorized into three groups: strong performance (16 countries), moderate performance (28 countries), and poor performance (10 countries) during the period from 2010 to 2020, using a multiple regression method on tabular data. The results of this study indicate that both climate change performance index and climate change risk have a positive and significant impact on the value added by the agricultural sector in all three performance groups and throughout all decades. This means that increasing climate change performance and climate change risk, both of which signify improved climate conditions in a country, positively affect the value added by the agricultural sector.Introduction Climate change can occur once in a thousand years. However, recent abrupt and severe climate shifts have emerged as a significant concern within societies and a substantial environmental challenge. Escalating temperature, polar ice melting, global sea level rise, and shifting weather patterns, all stem from climate change. One of the pathways towards achieving sustainable development involves the advancement of the agricultural sector, a vital economic segment. Progress in almost all sectors of economy, even the industry sector is closely correlated to growth in agriculture. Looking at the experiences of leading countries in agricultural production, the utilization of capital equipment across various agricultural activities has proven to enhance the productivity of factors like land, labor, and management. This, in turn, results in decreased production costs, increased investment returns, surplus domestic supply, and expanded agricultural product exports. The world confronts a climate change crisis due to widespread and damaging human pursuits aimed at resource acquisition. The repercussions of climate change, including rising sea levels, global warming, floods, droughts, and landslides, pose substantial threats to human existence. Among economic sectors, agriculture holds a particularly critical role in ensuring the sustenance of human populations. Yet, climate change places the agricultural sector under a severe risk, jeopardizing its capacity to provide food for humanity. Hence, the principal objective of this current study is to explore the impact of two climatic variables i.e. climate change risk and climate change performance index, on the added value of the agricultural sector across 54 member countries of the climate change performance index. These countries are categorized into three groups: strong performance (16 countries), moderate performance (28 countries), and poor performance (10 countries). The study period spans from 2010 to 2020, and the quantile regression method is employed on panel data to conduct the analysis. Methodology The general definition of quantile regression states that if the linear regression model is assumed as the following equation, we have: yi=ˊxiβτ+uτi. 0<τ<1 (1) Quantτ(yi|xi)=xiβτ (2) Equation (2) shows the τth conditional quantile function of the y distribution under the condition of random variables x in which the following condition holds: Quantτ(uτi|xi)=0 (3) In the quantile regression structure, the effect of observable features on the conditional distribution is estimated through the process of minimizing the absolute value of the error element. To estimate the model coefficients, the absolute value of the errors with appropriate weighting is used: Min Σyi≥ˊxiβ τyi- ˊxiβ+Σyi<ˊxiβ 1-τyi- ˊxiβ (4) As mentioned, quantile regression is resistant to outliers. However, this method is not intended to recognize the heterogeneity of a country. In this research, the quantile panel regression method with fixed effects is used, which makes it possible to estimate the effects of conditional heterogeneous covariance of inflation rate stimuli, thus controlling invisible individual heterogeneities. A suitable method has been suggested by Koner (2004) for solving such problems. He considers invisible fixed effects as parameters that are jointly estimated with the effects of auxiliary variables for different quantiles. The unique feature of this method is that it introduces a penalty term in the minimization to address the computational problem of a set of parameters; The parameters are calculated as follows: min(α.β)Σk=1KΣt=1TΣi=1N wkρτkyit-αi-xitTβτk+λΣiNαi (6) In equation (6), i represents the number of countries (N), T represents the index for the number of observations of each country, K represents the quantile index, x is the matrix of explanatory variables, and ρτk is the quantile loss function. Also, Wk represents the relative weight for the kth quantile. λ is an adjustment parameter that reduces individual effects to zero to improve the performance of β estimates. If λ tends to zero, the penalty term is eliminated and a conventional fixed effects estimator is obtained. Whereas if λ tends to infinity, an estimate of the model is obtained without fixed effects. In this research, λ = 1 (Damette and Delacote, 2012). Results and Discussion The results of this research show that both climate change performance index variables and climate change risk have a positive and significant effect on the added value of the agricultural sector in all three functional groups and all deciles. This means that an increase in climate change performance and an increase in climate change risk, both of which represent the improvement of climate conditions in a country, which have a positive effect on the added value of the agricultural sector. Conclusion Nowadays, climate change crisis has become one of the most critical challenges facing humanity in the present century. Scientists and researchers attribute the main cause of climate change to destructive human activities aimed at obtaining more resources to meet their needs and desires. Global warming, rising sea and ocean levels, landslides, floods, and droughts are just some of the consequences related to the climate change crisis. Within this context, agricultural sector, as one of the most important economic sectors for providing human food, is under the influence of climate change and could seriously endanger the future of humanity due to food resource scarcity. The main objective of this research is to examine the impact of two climate variables, namely climate change risk and climate change performance index, on the value added by the agricultural sector in 54 countries categorized into three groups: strong performance (16 countries), moderate performance (28 countries), and poor performance (10 countries) during the period from 2010 to 2020, using a multiple regression method on tabular data. The results of this study indicate that both climate change performance index and climate change risk have a positive and significant impact on the value added by the agricultural sector in all three performance groups and throughout all decades. This means that increasing climate change performance and climate change risk, both of which signify improved climate conditions in a country, positively affect the value added by the agricultural sector. جهان امروز به دلیل فعالیت‏های گسترده و مخرب بشر جهت دستیابی به منابع بیشتر زمین با بحران تغییرات اقلیمی روبه‏رو است. افزایش سطح آب دریاها و اقیانوس‏ها، گرمایش زمین، سیل، خشکسالی و رانش زمین می‏تواند حیات بشر را با تهدید مواجه کند. در بین بخش‏های مختلف اقتصادی، بخش کشاورزی به دلیل تأمین غذای بشر دارای اهمیتی به‏مراتب بیشتر است. از طرف دیگر، تغییرات اقلیمی بخش کشاورزی را با تهدید جدی در تأمین غذای انسان مواجه کرده است. درنتیجه، هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر بررسی تأثیر دو متغیر اقلیمی شامل ریسک تغییر اقلیم و شاخص عملکرد تغییر اقلیم بر ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی در 54 کشور عضو شاخص عملکرد تغییر اقلیم و به تفکیک سه گروه با عملکرد قوی (16 کشور)، عملکرد متوسط (28 کشور) و عملکرد ضعیف (10 کشور) طی دورۀ زمانی 2010 تا 2020 و با استفاده روش رگرسیون چندکی در داده‏های تابلویی است. نتایج این پژوهش نشان می‏دهد که هر دو متغیر شاخص عملکرد تغییر اقلیم و ریسک تغییرات اقلیمی دارای تأثیر مثبت و معنی‏دار بر ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی در هر سه گروه عملکردی و در تمامی دهک‏ها است. این تأثیر مثبت نشان می‏دهد که با بهبود شرایط اقلیمی و به‏تبع آن کاهش تأثیرات مخرب زیست‏محیطی، ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی در کشورهای موردنظر افزایش یافته است.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_13607_d479263a1438a8f9e85937a3a2d4f4a8.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 24 3 2024 08 22 Natural Disasters and Energy Security in Iran بررسی تأثیر بلایای طبیعی بر امنیت انرژی در ایران 31 60 13608 10.22034/24.3.31 FA پروین علی مرادی افشار استادیار، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکدۀ علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران 0000-0002-9721-7809 وحید عزیزی دانشجوی کارشناسی‌ارشد اقتصاد نظری، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکدۀ علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران سمیه فاتحی دانشجوی کارشناسی‌ارشد اقتصاد انرژی، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکدۀ علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران Journal Article Introduction In recent years, economic development and public welfare are not possible without reliable and sustainable energy sources. Therefore, providing energy security is one of the basic priorities of every society and government. On the other hand, energy security is closely related to human life and productive activities and is strongly related to the increase in the number of extreme natural events in the past decades. Natural disasters can have different effects on energy consumption depending on the type of disaster and the desired energy source. Emergency food products can be useful for disaster situations, and carbon absorption is one of the solutions that can greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The search for better energy performance of buildings and the using alternative sources of energy along with the rationalization of energy consumption can be directly related to reducing emission levels in the atmosphere and alleviating detrimental impacts on the environment. However, the transition to renewable energy sources requires careful planning and implementation to ensure energy security and prevent negative environmental effects, natural disasters also have significant implications for energy security, extreme weather events such as droughts and floods can affect the availability and reliability of energy resources, especially hydropower. Therefore, it is crucially important to consider the potential effects of climate change on energy systems and to develop adaptation strategies for ensuring energy security. Therefore, dealing with climate change and energy security are two critical challenges of any society today. Transitioning to renewable energy sources can reduce climate change, but requires careful planning and implementation to ensure energy security. In addition, it is vital to consider the potential impacts of climate change on energy systems and develop adaptation strategies to ensure energy security. Therefore, dealing with and managing severe natural disasters is necessary to ensure and manage energy security. Therefore, considering the importance of energy security on the one hand and limited research on the other to depict the impact of extreme natural events on energy security is of paramount importance. Therefore, considering the increasing frequency of natural disasters and energy security, how natural disasters affect energy security needs to be debated which has rarely been addressed yet. So, the aim of this research is to fill this theoretical gap so that the impact of severe natural hazards on energy security from a theoretical point of view to be investigated and solutions for diminishing the impact of natural disasters on energy security proposed. Methodology In this research, due to the fact that the degree of significance of all research variables was of the first order and with the difference of the first order of significance, to estimate the research model, it is possible to use co-accumulation methods to avoid creating false regression and misleading results. In econometric literature, various methods are introduced to check the existence of long-term relationship between variables. Therefore, this research uses Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) cointegration method to estimate the research model. The fully modified least squares method by Phillips and Hansen (1990) to examine long-run relationships and estimate a co-integrated relationship that has a combination of I(1) was introduced and developed. This method uses a quasi-parametric correction to eliminate problems caused by long-term correlation between co-accumulation equations and changes in random variables. Characteristics of this estimator; They are highly consistent and asymptotically distributed normally without skew and provide better results in small samples. It also provides modified standard deviation that allows statistical inferences to be made. In fact, the fully modified least squares method applies two corrections of distortion and endogeneity to the ordinary least squares method. On the other hand, the FMOLS method is not affected by the length of the interval and is asymptotically unbiased and has a fully efficient combination of asymptotes when all variables are endogenous. In fact, by means of this method, an optimal estimate of the cointegration vector can be estimated. Findings In this study, for the first time, the effect of severe natural disasters on the risk of energy security in Iran during the period (1980-2018) have been examined. To estimate the model, fully modified least squares (FMOLS) method was used. According to the variable results, severe natural disasters have a negative and significant effect on energy security in Iran, which is in agreement with the results of the research by Qiu et al. (2023), Lee et al. (2021), Rakshit (2021), Wei et al. 2022). Open degree index without trade has a negative and significant effect on energy security during the studied period, which confirms the results of Qiu et al. (2023), Wei et al. (2023) and Lee and Park (2021) studies. The industrialization index has a positive and significant effect on energy security in Iran, and the results of this section agree with the results of Qiu et al. (2023) research. The growth rate of urbanization also has a positive and significant effect on energy security during the studied period, which rejects the results of Qiu et al. (2023) study. Technological innovation has a positive and significant effect on energy security. Financial development had no significant effect on energy security. The GDP variable has a negative and significant effect on energy security. The results of this section are contrary to the research results of Qiu et al. (2023) and Lee and Park (2021) and are consistent with the research results of Wei et al. (2023). Discussion and Conclusion Natural disasters are an inevitable part of life that threaten different aspects of human life. Natural disasters may create some long-term social, economic and environmental trends in the society, whose effects have economic consequences for the country for decades. The position of natural disasters and its effect on other variables in a disaster-prone country like Iran should be given special attention. Natural disasters should be a gateway to a scientific, strategic and accurate look at these events and their social, political and economic consequences. Increased investment in infrastructure and mechanisms related to crisis prevention and management, and serious attention should be paid to basic indicators such as trust and political legitimacy to facilitate the functioning of the government in crisis conditions. The results of this study show that policy makers should pay enough attention to natural environment, especially natural disasters in planning agenda to improve energy security so that appropriate policy interventions can help deminish the impact of extreme natural events on energy security. Policy recommendations Paying attention to environmental issues to face natural disasters has become public knowledge in different societies. In terms of energy security, the following recommendations are suggested for Iran which is located in a dry and semi-arid climate and faces serious limitations: Providing sufficient credits by promoting cooperation with international organizations. Lack of credits is one of the main obstacles to the implementation of legal articles approved in the development programs and advancing the goals set in the field of environmental issues of the country. Adopting the approach of comprehensive and integrated management of the environment. In Iran varied organizations and institutions are involved with the environmental issues and none are fully responsible for it. Environmental Protection Organization, Forests and Ranges and Watershed Organization, Water Department of the Ministry of Energy, and the Iranian Fisheries Organization are each responsible for a part of environmental concerns with no mechanism for coordination between them. Promotion of culture and environmental literacy of society to strengthen the spirit of cooperation of citizens with environmental policies. Application of greenhouse gas emission management policies in the country. درحال حاضر، توسعه اقتصادی و رفاه عمومی بدون داشتن منابع انرژی مطمئن و پایدار امکان‌پذیر نیست. بنابراین، تأمین امنیت انرژی از اولویت‏های اساسی هر جامعه و حکومتی به‌شمار می‏رود. از طرفی امنیت انرژی ارتباط تنگاتنگی با زندگی و فعالیت‏های تولیدی انسان دارد و به‌شدت با افزایش تعداد رویدادهای شدید طبیعی مرتبط است. بنابراین این پژوهش با هدف بررسی تأثیر بلایای طبیعی بر امنیت انرژی در ایران، طی دوره زمانی (1980 تا 2018) انجام شده است. جهت برآورد مدل و ارائۀ نتایج از روش اقتصادسنجی حداقل مربعات کاملاً اصلاح‌شده (FMOLS) استفاده شد. براساس نتایج این مطالعه متغیرهای باز بودن تجارت و رشد اقتصادی تأثیرات نامطلوبی بر امنیت انرژی دارد. شاخص صنعتی شدن، نوآوری تکنولوژیک و نرخ رشد شهرنشینی اثر مثبت و معنی‏داری بر امنیت انرژی دارد. با توجه به هدف اصلی تحقیق نتایج نشان می‏دهد که با افزایش تعداد بلایای طبیعی، امنیت انرژی کاهش می‏یابد. یافته‌های این مطالعه می‌تواند مرجعی برای لزوم ارتقای مدیریت انرژی باشد.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_13608_487648b2b65867706a16ae2fc325112e.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 24 3 2024 08 22 Natural Resource Abundance, Financial Development and Economic Growth (An Iranian Experience) فراوانی منابع طبیعی و رابطه توسعه مالی - رشد اقتصادی در ایران: بررسی نقش بهره‌وری 61 96 13609 10.22034/24.3.61 FA مجید آقایی دانشیار اقتصاد مالی، عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه مازندران، مازندران، ایران Journal Article Introduction Financial development is one of the effective factors on economic growth in different countries. The relationship between financial development and economic growth is influenced by various parameters and the economic structure of countries. One of the factors that can affect this relationship is the natural resource abundance and the degree of dependence on them. According to economic literature, natural resource abundance can impact financial efficiency, capital accumulation, and the optimal allocation and effectiveness of financial resources, thereby influencing the relationship between financial development and economic growth in resource-rich countries. This study aims to explore the impact of natural resource abundance on the relationship between economic growth and financial development through productivity in Iran. Methodology In order to investigate and empirically analyze the long-term and short-term dynamic relationship between variables, this research employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounding test approach. The ARDL Bounding test method was developed by Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001). This method offers advantages over other conventional and previous cointegration methods, such as Johansen and Toda-Yamamoto approaches. Some advantages include applicability regardless of considering the order of cointegration between variables, its ability to handle cases where variables are I(0) or I(1), suitability for limited sample sizes, obtaining efficient estimates without risk of over-specification in long-run model relationships, and presenting a reduced form single-equation form rather than a systemic one for the long-run relationship. Results and Discussion Based on the results obtained from the research, financial development has not shown a significant impact on economic growth in Iran during the study period. This suggests that institutions and financial entities, particularly the banking system, have not effectively channeled financial resources towards productive investments and market stimulation. However, the abundance index of natural resources has demonstrated a positive and significant influence on economic growth. Considering the substantial portion of Iran's GDP that is attributed to oil revenues, such a finding is not unexpected. The per capita capital impact on economic growth is also positive and statistically significant. Among the effective factors on economic growth in this study, this variable has exerted the most considerable impact, indicating that capital plays a crucial role in boosting economic growth in Iran. Estimating the factors affecting total factor productivity (which is calculated using the Solow method) also indicates that financial development has had a positive impact on total factor productivity during the study period. However, the ultimate impact of financial development on productivity is influenced by oil revenues, as per the estimated model. The negative and significant coefficient of the interaction variable between financial development and natural resource abundance suggests a negative effect of oil revenues on the relationship between financial development and productivity in Iran. This result could imply an indirect impact of resource abundance on the financial development-economic growth relationship through the productivity channel during the study period in Iran. Furthermore, it signifies that the heavy dependence on oil, one of the most vital avenues for economic growth, has eroded the relationship with financial development. Hence, the research hypothesis, suggesting that the abundance of natural resources (oil dependence) weakens the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Iran due to its negative impact on productivity, is validated, and the "resource curse" hypothesis is confirmed for the study period in Iran. Conclusion The results of this study indicate that financial development had a positive and significant impact on total factor productivity in Iran. However, ultimately, it did not have a significant impact on economic growth. This is due to the abundance of natural resources (oil revenues) leading to a reduction in the positive influence of financial development on total factor productivity. As a consequence, it weakens the relationship between financial development and economic growth during the examined period in Iran. Based on these findings, it is plausible to confirm the hypothesis of the "resource curse" during the examined period in Iran. The findings can encompass a set of policy recommendations for the Iranian economy. Firstly, the government should be aware of the indirect negative impact of oil dependence on the financial system and, consequently, on investment activities. It is logical for the government to maintain the degree of oil dependence at the lowest possible level, enhance economic diversification, and increase the contribution of other sectors to GDP growth. Additionally, the financial system should engage more in productive investment activities to strengthen its role in improving economic growth. In this regard, policymakers should pursue measures that facilitate improvement of banking intermediation efficiency. Furthermore, one of the most significant mechanisms of the resource curse in oil-dependent economies is the mismanagement of these resources and neglect of human development. Easy access to oil revenues might exempt the government from investing in human capital development, which could potentially have a negative impact on the performance of the financial sector and other sectors of the economy. Therefore, it is recommended that policymakers prioritize the necessary prerequisites for enhancing human development, which plays a crucial role in enhancing productivity and investment efficiency. یکی از عوامل تأثیرگذار بر رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای مختلف، توسعۀ مالی است. رابطۀ توسعۀ مالی و رشد اقتصادی تحت تأثیر ویژگی‌های مختلف و ساختار اقتصادی کشورها قرار دارد. یکی از عواملی که می‌تواند بر این رابطه تأثیرگذار باشد، فراوانی منابع طبیعی و میزان وابستگی به آن است. براساس ادبیات اقتصادی، فراوانی منابع طبیعی از طریق تأثیرگذاری بر بهره‌وری و درنتیجه تأثیر بر روند انباشت سرمایه توسط نهادهای مالی و نحوۀ تخصیص بهینۀ منابع مالی، می‌تواند بر رابطۀ توسعۀ مالی و رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای برخوردار از منابع طبیعی تأثیرگذار باشد. در این مطالعه تأثیر فراوانی منابع طبیعی بر رابطۀ بین رشد اقتصادی و توسعۀ مالی از کانال بهره‌وری در ایران با استفاده از داده‌های سری زمانی به‌صورت سالیانه ط ی سال‌های 1359 تا 1399 و با استفاده از تخمین‌زن ARDL مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج حاصل از این تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که توسعۀ مالی تأثیر مثبت و معنادار بر بهره‌وری کل عوامل طی دوره مورد بررسی در ایران داشته است، ولی درنهایت، تأثیر معناداری بر رشد اقتصادی نداشته است. زیرا فراوانی منابع طبیعی (درآمدهای نفتی) باعث کاهش تأثیر مثبت توسعه مالی بر بهره‌وری گردیده و درنتیجه موجب تضعیف رابطه بین توسعۀ مالی و رشد اقتصادی طی دوره مورد بررسی در ایران شده است. بر این اساس می‌توان فرضیه نفرین منابع (نفرین نفت) طی دوره مورد بررسی در ایران را تأیید کرد. با توجه به نتایج حاصل از این تحقیق، جهت دادن منابع مالی به سمت سرمایه‌گذاری‌های مولد و با بهره‌وری بالا و کاهش وابستگی به درآمدهای نفتی و متنوع کردن راه‌های کسب درآمد در کشور ایران توصیه می‌گردد.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_13609_5ad2eb46c0f9ac3bddd60f8eaca8a772.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 24 3 2024 08 22 Urban Morphology and Public Transportation Demand with Special Emphasis on the Form of Urban Road Network تحلیل اثر مورفولوژی شهری بر تقاضای حمل‌ونقل شهری با تأکید بر شکل شبکه معابر شهری (مطالعۀ موردی شهر اصفهان) 97 122 13610 10.22034/24.3.97 FA زهرا پوراحمد کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران بابک صفاری استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران شکوفه فرهمند دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران Journal Article Introduction In recent years, the ever-increasing population growth and rampant use of personal transportation and daily trips have caused many problems in the field of transportation, including high fuel consumption, air pollution, noise, high density streets, reduced physical activity, etc. In many metroplolitan areas during the past decades, the sudden increase of motor vehicles has caused heavy street traffic in intra-city trips, and the main reason for this can be considered the weak relationship between urban morphology and transportation, in other words, urban forms that avoid pedestrians and encourage motor trips. Urban morphology is one of the most important and main factors that affect the demand for urban transportation. The quality of land use (density of residential units or their dispersion) forms the important basis of urban morphology. In the formation of urban morphology, natural and human factors play varried roles, among them road network is of paramount importance in construction and morphology of a city. Since urban morphology has a significant effect on urban transportation, how to establish a strong relationship between urban morphology and travel modes has has always been of great interst of researchers. This study is aiming at investigating the impact of morphology characteristics on urban transportation demand. In this research, features of urban morphology, such as overall residential density, connectivity index, and the average width of roads, with the help of demographic characteristics, such as population density, female and female working poulation, total working population etc., on demand for urban transportation have been ivestigated. These include four parameters such as creation of public and personal trips and attraction of public and personal trips on in 186 traffic areas of Isfahan city. Methodology This research has been conducted with a descriptive causal approach based on the data and information required in the study areas. To achieve the research goals, 186 traffic areas of Isfahan City have been studied. For analyzing the characteristics of urban morphology, including average width of roads, overall residential density, and connectivity index (street density), in the form of GIS maps have been investigated, and for demographic characteristics, the population and housing census map of Isfahan City was obtained and researched from the Deputy Planning and Human Capital Development Organization of Isfahan Municipality. Then, using the map of 186 traffic areas of Isfahan City, the amount of these variables was calculated and extracted by GIS software. Moreover, the information related to urban transportation demand based on public transportation demand, including public travel creation, public travel attraction, and personal transportation demand, including personal travel creation and personal travel attraction from the origin-destination matrix of the year 2021 of Isfahan city on a normal working day and at the peak hour of 7:00 to 8:00 a.m., the transportation and traffic department of Isfahan municipality has been obtained and used for evaluation. In the present research, in order to reach a complete and comprehensive answer, after extracting the data from GIS software, the Eviuse software was used. According to the number and nature of the research variables, the specification of the model is done using the multivariate regression method and the weighted least squares method. GIS software was also used for drawing the maps. Findings The research findings show that in the TSS and JSS models, with the increase in the average width of traffic areas, the creation and attraction of personal travel have also increased, and in the TSO and JSO models, the creation and attraction of public travel have decreased with the increase in the average width of traffic areas. In TSS model, the coefficient is negative and in JSO model, the coefficient is positive, which shows that with an increase in the overall residential density, the use of private transportation decreases and the use of public transportation increases. In terms of street density, which also indicates the connection index, the coefficient value is positive in TSS and negative in TSO model. The results also show that women in general use public transportation, but working women use private transportation more. The estimation of TSS model shows that as population is aging in the traffic areas of Isfahan City, the preferrence in using personal transportation has been rising. In JSS model, the parking variable has a direct relationship with the attraction of personal travel. In the personal travel attraction model, health-therapeutic use and commercial use have a direct relationship with the attraction of personal trips, and in the public travel attraction model, commercial, educational, and health-therapeutic uses have a direct relationship with the attraction of public trips. Finally, the increased number and variety of the users will also increase intra-city trips. Discussion and Conclusion In this research, an attempt has been made to investigate the effect of urban morphology variables on urban transportation demand with a general perspective. The results of the estimation of the research models show that the widening of urban roads as a management policy for intra-city travel demand increases people's trips using personal transportation and as a result, increases the number of road users. Street density, which indicates the number of higher streets and therefore greater connectivity, has a direct relationship with citizens' use of private transportation. Residents of areas that have higher overall residential density and population density, which indicates denser urban fabric and more dispersion, are less likely to use personal transportation, and people in those areas prefer to use public transportation and walking options. Also, as the age of the residents of the area increases, they use private cars for their daily trips. Another examination of the results of the research indicates that areas with parking facility, will attract passengers who have used private transportation compared to the areas that do not have such possibility. In general, as the total working population increases in the areas, they use personal transportation to go to their workplace, and it can be said that the female population uses public transportation more for their daily trips. In the public travel attraction model, the positive coefficient of commercial use is higher than the coefficient of health-therapeutic use and educational use, and with the increase in the number of commercial uses, the attraction of public travel increases to a greater extent. In the personal travel absorption model, the effect value of the healthcare usage coefficient is higher than the commercial usage coefficient and it shows that with the increase in the number of healthcare usages, the absorption of personal travel will increase. Moreover, the increased number and variety of the users will also increase intra-city trips. در سال‌های اخیر رشد روزافزون جمعیت و افزایش استفاده از حمل‌ونقل شخصی و سفرهای روزانه، مشکلات فراوانی در حوزۀ جابه‌جایی ازجمله مصرف بالای سوخت، آلودگی هوا، سر و صدا، تراکم بالای خیابان‌ها، کاهش فعالیت بدنی و غیره به‌وجود آورده است. در بسیاری از کلانشهرها طی دهه‌های گذشته افزایش ناگهانی وسایل نقلیه موتوری موجب ترافیک‌های سنگین خیابانی در سفرهای درون‌شهری شده است و علت اصلی آن را می‌توان ضعف روابط بین مورفولوژی شهری و حمل‌ونقل، به عبارت دیگر شکل‌های شهری پیاده‌گریز و تشویق‌کننده سفرهای موتوری دانست. از آنجایی که مورفولوژی شهری اثر قابل توجهی بر حمل‌ونقل شهری دارد، نحوۀ ایجاد رابطه‌ای قوی بین مورفولوژی شهری و حالت‌های سفر علاقه‌های بسیاری را به خود جلب کرده است، با در نظر گرفتن این ضرورت، در پژوهش حاضر اثر مورفولوژی شهری بر تقاضای حمل‌ونقل شهری در شهر اصفهان ارائه خواهد شد. در این پژوهش با استفاده از نرم‌افزار Eviews و مدل رگرسیون خطی چندمتغیره و روش حداقل مربعات وزنی، اثر متغیرهای مورفولوژی شهری، بر متغیر تقاضای سفر شهری بررسی شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که هرچه در نواحی میانگین عرض معابر افزایش می‌یابد، ساکنان نواحی کمتر از حمل‌ونقل عمومی و بیشتر از حمل‌ونقل شخصی جهت سفرهای روزانه خود استفاده خواهند کرد. همچنین یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که با افزایش شاخص اتصال سفرهای حمل‌ونقل شخصی افزایش می‌یابد و با افزایش تراکم کلی مسکونی و کاهش پراکندگی، ساکنان نواحی ترجیح می‌دهند از وسایل نقلیه عمومی استفاده کنند.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_13610_58efa70ac9501993f69ac68489db09ad.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 24 3 2024 08 22 Behavioral and Non-Behavioral Factors Affecting Housing Prices and Inflation in Iran تحلیل عوامل رفتاری و غیررفتاری مؤثر بر قیمت مسکن و تورم در ایران 123 145 13611 10.22034/24.3.123 FA علی اکبر قلی زاده دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران شهلا صمدی پور استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران. Journal Article Introduction Various dimensions of housing heterogeneity have gained relative popularity in recent years. The most essential aspect of housing heterogeneity is a set of differences including technical, governance, socio-economic, and ecological differences of each residential unit. The origin of these distinctions is an objective matter that is regarded as an essential aspect of the research framework, but is frequently overlooked in managerial decision-making. In the scientific community, the social, technical, and economic dimensions have received the most attention, whereas the role of the behavioral characteristics of investors in housing prices has received scant attention. Focusing on the aspects of behavioral economics theory, the present study analyzes the heterogeneity of the behavior of housing investors, as well as the internal and external factors influencing housing prices and their effects on inflation in Iran from 2011 to 2020. Methodology The primary objective of this article is to evaluate the effects of heterogeneous behavior of housing market investors on housing prices and the effects of heterogeneous behavior of housing market investors on inflation via housing prices. The following equation is used to determine the price of a house: POH=f1(A1. A2.A3) (1) In Equation 1, POH represents the expense of housing, A1 is a vector of exogenous factors influencing housing prices, A2 is a vector of exogenous factors influencing housing prices, and A3 is a vector of investor behavioral variables in the housing sector. Overoptimism and herding effect are considered to be two behavioral variables of housing sector investors: HBHt=1Tt=1T|et-em| (2) OCHt=QtSt (3) In equation 2, HBHt represents the herding effect of investors in housing sector, et represents the housing return at time t, and em represents the average return of housing market. In equation 3, OCHt represents overoptimism, Qt represents the number of building permits issued, and St represents the quantity of residential unit investment. Inflation is also viewed as a function of housing prices and other macroeconomic factors according to the equation below: INFR=f2(POH.B) (4) In equation 5, INFR represents inflation rate and B is a vector of independent variables influencing inflation. Findings During the period 2011-2020, land price, population growth rate, liquidity, and herding effect had a positive significant effect on housing prices in Iran, according to estimates. Conversely, the number of residential units constructed and the exchange rate has had a negative significant impact on housing prices in Iran; while, the variables of interest rate, per capita income growth rate, and overoptimism had nonsignificant effect on housing prices. Regarding the factors influencing inflation, the data also indicates that the housing price, exchange rate, and liquidity had a positive significant effect on Iran’s inflation rate between 2011 and 2020. In contrast, population growth and per capita income growth had a significant negative impact on inflation; while the interest rate had a negative but nonsignificant impact on Iran’s inflation rate over the period under review. Due to the nonsignificance of the effect of overoptimism on housing prices in the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model, it can be concluded that housing prices do not mediate the effect of overoptimism on inflation. Due to the significance of herding effect on housing prices, however, the mediating effect of housing prices and herding effect on inflation is confirmed. Discussion and Conclusion In this article, SUR was used to analyze the effects of behavioral and non-behavioral factors on housing prices and inflation in Iran from 2011 to 2020. The following results were obtained: • An increase of 1% in internal factors affecting housing prices, such as land prices, the number of completed construction units, population growth rate, and per capita income, have resulted in respective increases of 1.19, -1.36, 0.59, and -0.015 in the Iranian housing costs. • An increase of 1% in the behavioral factor of herding effect has resulted in a change of 0.77% in housing prices in Iran. • A 1% increase in housing prices, currency prices, and liquidity has resulted in an inflation rate increase of 0.18%, 0.92%, and 0.17% in Iran, respectively. A 1% increase in the population growth rate and the per capita income growth rate has caused a decrease of 1.53% and 0.141% in inflation rate, respectively. Through housing prices, the behavior of investors in the housing sector can indirectly influence the inflation rate. Considering the positive impacts of herding effect on housing prices and housing prices on inflation rate, it can be concluded that herding effect has a positive impact on inflation rate. In accordance with the stated findings, the following policy recommendations are provided to prevent the rise in housing prices and inflation: Considering the positive impact of herding effect on the housing price and, consequently, the inflation rate, it is necessary to take measures to control and reduce emotional and irrational behavior of investors in housing sector. Since the internal factors of land price and population growth rate have a positive effect on the housing price, while the number of completed construction units and per capita income have a negative effect on the housing price, it is recommended that government provide unused governmental lands and remove obstacles to complete half-finished buildings that have been halted for legal reasons, and assist in supplying more housing to reduce its price. In addition, government should help control housing demand and reduce demand pressure by adopting population control policies and establishing suitable working, health, and educational conditions for the villagers, to diminish immigration level. مقالۀ حاضر اثر قیمت ‌مسکن بر تورم با تأکید بر عوامل رفتاری و غیررفتاری شامل عوامل درون‌بخشی و برون‌بخشی مؤثر بر قیمت مسکن در ایران مورد بررسی قرار می‌دهد. بدین منظور متغیرهای رفتاری سرمایه‌گذاران شامل رفتار‌توده‌وار و خوش‌بینی بیش از حد اندازه‌گیری شده است، سپس سیستم معادلات شامل معادلات قیمت‌مسکن و تورم تدوین گردید. معادلات قیمت مسکن و تورم در ایران طی دوره زمانی فصل اول 1380 تا فصل اول 1399 با بکارگیری سیستم معادلات به‌ظاهر نامرتبط (SUR) برآورد گردید. نتایج عوامل درون بخشی حاکی از اثر مثبت قیمت زمین و تعداد واحدهای ساختمانی تکمیل‌شده بر قیمت مسکن است. از طرفی عوامل برون‌بخشی شامل؛ قیمت ارز و نقدینگی به ترتیب اثر منفی و مثبت بر قیمت مسکن داشته‌اند. از میان دو عامل رفتاری، رفتارتوده‌وار بر قیمت مسکن اثر مثبت داشته و خوش‌بینی بیش از حد اثر معناداری نداشته است. همچنین نرخ رشد جمعیت و نرخ رشد درآمد سرانه اثر منفی بر نرخ تورم داشته‌اند. رفتار توده‌وار سرمایه‌گذاران در بخش مسکن نیز به‌طور غیرمستقیم و از طریق قیمت مسکن می‌تواند به افزایش نرخ تورم منجر شود.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_13611_556950cd2810a798637000e9e438aac5.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 24 3 2024 08 22 Service Employment and Income Inequality in Iran بررسی تأثیر اشتغال در بخش خدمات بر نابرابری درآمدی در استان‌های ایران 147 168 13612 10.22034/24.3.147 FA مریم ریشه چی فیاض دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران محمدعلی فلاحی استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران مهدی فیضی استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد Journal Article Introduction Inequality in income distribution and social class inequality are among the most serious challenges faced by societies. Revolutionary movements often strive to reduce inequality and establish a more just society. The social class inequality and unfair income distribution have adverse social, economic, and cultural impacts on the community. Therefore, one of the governments’ primary and essential tasks is to create equitable opportunities and address social inequalities. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the influential factors and define precise and reliable variables for measuring inequality. Methodology In this research, various methods for estimating the Gini coefficient are applied. This thesis will employ panel data models to investigate the effects of variables such as employment rate in the service sector, per capita income, inflation, and government expenditure on the Gini coefficient. Results and Discussion The final results of this study demonstrate that: first, per capita income significantly negatively impacts income inequality in the studied provinces during this period. In other words, as the per capita income of provinces increases, the level of income inequality decreases. Second, according to the findings of this research, government expenditure in each province have a positive and meaningful effect on income inequality. As government expenditure increases, income inequality will also rise. Inflation also positively and significantly impacts inequality, as increasing inflation leads to higher income inequality among provinces. Finally, employment in the service sector has a positive and significant effect on income inequality in the Iranian provinces, meaning that as the employment share in the service sector increases, income inequality will also increase. Conclusion Income inequality does not solely encompass economic issues, it will also extend to a wide range of social, economic, and even political matters. For this reason, achieving social justice has been one of the most complex and significant responsibilities of governments throughout history. Establishing fairness and equality in society can lead to development goals, economic growth, prosperity, increased security, and overall societal well-being. To attain a reasonable level of income equality, it is imperative first to define a suitable index for measuring the extent of inequality that is precise, measurable, and reliable. Subsequently, it is necessary to identify the key and influential factors contributing to income inequality and, ultimately, take steps to reduce income inequality." The main objective of this research is to investigate the impact of employment in the service sector on income inequality in the provinces of Iran during the years 2011-2019. As the results have shown, throughout the study period, employment in the service sector has affected income inequality in the Iran's provinces. However, contrary to the results in most developed countries, employment in the service sector has worsened income inequality in provinces. There are multiple reasons for the results obtained. As explained in the theoretical background, a major contributing factor in developing countries like Iran is the prevalence of low-paying service jobs that attract many individuals. Many service jobs within this category do not require specialized skills or infrastructure, making them appealing to individuals seeking employment. Employing more individuals from this group in service jobs does not decrease income inequality. It may exacerbate income inequality within society. In all economies, service sector complements other sectors and facilitates the conduct of different activities, greatly influencing the quality of outcome. If educational, health, and recreational services are not available in society, the workforce will not be efficient, and desirable productivity will not be achieved, thus affecting the economy negatively. In addition, in production sector, service institutions have the highest efficiency in adding value to goods. Service institutions can be divided into three main categories: (1) primary institutions, including research and development institutions. (2) secondarty institutions that operate in activities such as engineering, legal, and consultancy services. (3) Final institutions that play a role in activities such as packaging, sales, and advertising. Another advantage of the service sector is related to education. The more educated the workforce, the higher the productivity level will be. The concepts mentioned above are just a few of the job advantages in service sector. Nevertheless, in most developing countries, including Iran, more attention is paid to the industrial sector. This is despite World Bank data showing that about 70-80 percent of employment in advanced countries is in service sector, and special attention is paid to that. Most fundamental discussions also revolve around employment opportunities there. Despite all the advantages and experiences of different countries, Iran has not been able to use the existing capacities in this sector effectively. Many policymakers still view the service sector as low-level jobs, brokerage, and intermediaries, which has prevented serious attention to this sector, even though the service sector includes profitable jobs and contributes significantly to the growth and development of the country. Employment in this sector can also help employment in the industrial and agricultural sectors achieve higher productivity levels. نابرابری در توزیع درآمدی و اختلاف طبقاتی یکی از مهم‌ترین مشکلات جوامع امروزی است و اغلب جنبش‌های انقلابی باهدف کاهش نابرابری و به‌وجود آمدن جامعۀ عادلانه شکل‌ گرفته است. شکاف طبقاتی و توزیع ناعادلانه درآمد آثار زیان‌بار اجتماعی، اقتصادی و فرهنگی بر جامعه دارد؛ بنابراین از وظایف اصلی و مهم هر دولتی ایجاد امکانات عادلانه و برطرف‌کردن نابرابری‌های اجتماعی است. برای برطرف‌کردن نابرابری ابتدا باید عوامل اثرگذار بر آن مشخص شود. در این پژوهش ابتدا با انتخاب مناسب‌ترین روش، ضریب جینی برای 31 استان ایران در بازۀ سال‌های 1390-1398 محاسبه شده است. در ادامه از الگو داده‌های تابلویی استفاده شده و با کمک این الگو به نحوۀ اثرگذاری متغیرهای سهم اشتغال در بخش خدمات، درآمد سرانه، تورم و مخارج دولت بر ضریب جینی پرداخته شده است. نتایج نهایی این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد در این دوره زمانی، درآمد سرانه تأثیر منفی و معنی‌داری بر نابرابری درآمدی استان‌های کشور دارد. به‌عبارتی با افزایش درآمد سرانه استان‌ها، میزان نابرابری درآمدی کاهش‌یافته است. همچنین مطابق با نتایج این پژوهش، میزان مخارج دولت در هر استان، بر نابرابری درآمدی تأثیر مثبت و معنی‌داری دارد به‌طوری‌که با افزایش مخارج دولت، میزان نابرابری درآمدی افزایش می‌یابد. تورم نیز تأثیر مثبت و معنی‌داری بر نابرابری خواهد داشت به این صورت که با بالارفتن تورم نابرابری در استان‌ها بیشتر شده است. اشتغال در بخش خدمات نیز تأثیر مثبت و معنی‌داری بر نابرابری درآمدی در استان‌های ایران دارد و با بالارفتن سهم اشتغال در بخش خدمات نابرابری درآمدی نیز بیشتر خواهد شد.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_13612_9ff0bbc7c4dde77be85a27a1c5ba6d6c.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 24 3 2024 08 22 International Economic Zones and Integration of Global Economy پیدایش مناطق اقتصادی بین‌المللی در راستای انسجام اقتصاد جهانی 169 196 13613 10.22034/24.3.169 FA مصطفی حیدری هراتمه دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد نراق، نراق، ایران Journal Article Introduction In international trade network, countries are classified into different societies. These societies are formed based on commercial relations. Countries that are in the same society have close trade relations, while countries that are in different societies have much weaker trade relations, which shows that classification phenomenon has a meaningful effect on the field of international trade of resources. These societies also significantly promote free trade and improve commercial security and create favorable business conditions. For countries that rely heavily on foreign resources, establishing trade zones or joining a trade zone for their long-term development is of paramount importance. The division of societies in the trade network is based on geographical location or gross domestic product, not regional trade agreements. Some researchers have investigated the evolutionary characteristics of societies and analyzed the sustainability of international trade. In addition, some researchers argue that societies increase their commercial power by stabilizing the flow of resources in international trade, and their international position improves through cooperation with other countries. Several studies have provided a lot of knowledge about the society and the structural features of the international trade network, but few studies have dealt with the formation of trade areas and what promotes the formation of a trade area. The formation of trade communities/regions can be a strategy to reduce restrictions and increase trade interactions and its security through close communication between countries. Therefore, the current study can become more necessary in the situation where the current international business cooperation has become more and more important. Therefore, two main questions arise that need to be answered: 1) How are business areas formed, and 2) What factors influence the formation of business areas? Based on the studies, resource dependence theory and complex network theory can explain these questions well. Resource dependence theory states that if a firm is highly dependent on the target market, then it will be constrained by the actors in that market. Complex network theory is also a useful tool for systematically analyzing interactions between countries, especially when there are many countries involved and strong links between them exists. The purpose in fact was to investigate and recognize the influence of the resource dependence theory and the complex network theory in the formation of international trade areas in line with the integration of global economy. Methodology The data were extracted from the 22 countries active in international trade and based on the availability of the data of the official COMTRADE database of the United Nations in the period of 2011-2021. They account for the entire international trade. In order to analyze the data and estimate the models, negative binomial regression was used because when there are countable and discrete data as the response variable, simple linear regression is not a suitable fitting method. So, Poisson regression was applied, which is considered a method in "generalized linear models" where the probability function for the "response variable" is considered to be "Poisson distribution" and suitable for count data. Findings The trade partner factor has a positive effect on the formation of international trade communities, that is, when a country cooperates with a large number of trade partners or has a superior position in the international trade network, it is more likely that other countries will form the same pattern. Therefore, when a country considers itself dependent on the resources of other countries, the possibility of forming a similar society will increase. Finally, network position plays a positive role in moderating the relationship between resource dependence and international trade areas. Discussion and Conclusion Based on resource dependence and complex network theory, and analyzing the decisive factors affecting the accession process of a country to the same trade zones, the dependence of the country's imports on the external environment is an integral factor in joining a country to the same trade zones. In fact, in choosing partners for the formation of commercial zones, countries attach great importance to the ability to provide resources of commercial partners. On the other hand, position of the network plays a positive role in the formation of a business community. Countries with a higher network position can not only access resources or reach the target market faster, but also have more control over the flow of resources. Therefore, it is more likely that countries will establish closer trade relations with countries that have a higher network position in order to increase their economic power. The more central a country's network position is, the easier it is to choose to join larger trade areas with other countries. Also, according to the resource dependence theory, the more central a country's network position is, the more likely it is to join the same trade areas as other countries. Network and resource considerations both simultaneously play a role in the strategic choice of national trade. In the case of countries that have the same resource abundance, a country can choose to form the same society as countries that have a more central network position. Finally, due to the development of export markets for domestic products, countries are easily affected by the network position. This will enable them to choose other countries that are in a more central network position to form the same society, rather than trying to trade among them. Based on the economic freedom factor and the diversity of the importing country, countries that can strengthen resource trade, can reduce or manage their dependence on other countries. In addition, they can balance the inventory and production of global resources. شکل‌گیری جوامع/مناطق اقتصادی می‌تواند راهبردی برای کاهش محدودیت‌ها و افزایش تعاملات تجاری و امنیت آن از طریق ارتباط نزدیک میان کشورها باشد. نظریه وابستگی به منابع بیان می‌دارد که اگر بنگاهی تا حد زیادی به بازار موردنظر وابسته باشد، آنگاه به‌وسیله بازیگران در آن بازار محدود خواهد شد و نظریه شبکه پیچیده ابزار مفیدی برای تجزیه و تحلیل تعاملات مابین کشورها به‌طور سیستماتیک است، به‌ویژه زمانی که تعداد کشورها و پیوندهای مابین آ‌‌‌ن‌ها زیاد باشد. بنابراین هدف پژوهش، بررسی و شناخت نقش نظریه وابستگی به منابع و نظریه شبکه پیچیده در شکل‌گیری مناطق اقتصادی بین‌المللی در راستای یکپارچگی اقتصاد جهانی، در نظر گرفته شد. داده‌های متعیرهای پژوهش از کشورهای فعال در تجارت بین‌المللی و براساس در دسترس بودن داده‌های COMTRADE سازمان ملل در دوره زمانی 1390 – 1400 استخراج گردید که به‌دلیل حجم زیاد داده‌ها، 22 کشور به‌عنوان نمونه انتخاب شدند که حجم تجارت حداکثری از کل این تجارت بین‌الملل را به خود اختصاص داده‌اند. جهت تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها و برآورد مد‌‌ل‌ها از رگرسیون دوجمله‌ای منفی استفاده گردید. نتایج نشان داد: عامل شریک تجاری تأثیر مثبتی بر شکل‌گیری جوامع تجاری بین‌المللی دارد، یعنی زمانی که کشوری با تعداد زیادی از شرکای تجاری همکاری می‌کند یا موقعیت برتر در شبکه تجاری بین‌المللی داشته باشد، احتمال بیشتری دارد که کشورهای دیگر مناطق یکسانی با آن کشور تشکیل دهند. همچنین وقتی که کشوری خود را وابسته به منابع کشورهای دیگر می‌داند، احتمال شکل‌گیری جامعه‌ای مشابه با دیگر کشورها افزایش پیدا می‌کند. درنهایت، موقعیت در شبکه نقش مثبتی در تنظیم روابط بین وابستگی به منابع و مناطق اقتصادی بین‌المللی ایفا می‌کند.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_13613_7da9599ceaa0dd2498d02cc7985f5bde.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 24 3 2024 08 22 Applying Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Method in Examining the Hypotheses of Import-output and Export-output Growth in Iran کاربرد رهیافت مارکوف - سوئیچینگ در بررسی فرضیه‌های رشد واردات – تولید و رشد صادرات – تولید در ایران 197 228 13614 10.22034/24.3.197 FA فهمیده فتاحی دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران صمد حکمتی فرید دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران علی رضازاده دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران. Journal Article Introduction Empirical analysis of export-led growth (ELG), growth-Led export (GLE), import-led growth (ILG) and growth-Led imports (GLI) hypotheses, are supported by a review of the trade literature and economic growth, which creates verifiable evidence using scientific methods for interpretation. To start with the first hypothesis, ELG is also expressed as the role of exports in economic growth in most empirical researches. The ELG hypothesis is described as a development strategy that focuses on foreign exports while simultaneously aiming to strengthen productive capacity that is consistent with economic growth. This hypothesis includes the promotion of exports and the acquisition of foreign exchange reserves by adopting certain policies supported by advanced technology can potentially benefit economic growth. Exporting is considered a tool for long-term economies of scale. Exports promote economic growth in the domestic market through the use of more technology and skilled labor. This process leads to improved efficiency and productivity in the economy. In line with the above, it can be argued that there may be a non-linear causal relationship between output, export and import, and awareness of this issue and its extent is of great importance for planners and policy makers. Therefore, how to investigate the relationship between non-linear causality and mutual effects of output, export and import needs to be experimentally investigated in Iran. For this purpose, the present study examines the analysis of the non-linear causality relationship between output, export and import and confirms the hypotheses of import-output growth and export-output growth in Iran using quarterly data during the period 1988-2022. In this regard, the theoretical foundations related to the subject will be examined first, and then some related studies will be reviewed. In the following, the introduced model will be estimated and analyzed and the conclusion will be presented. Methodology In this study, the non-linear causality relationship between output, export, and import is investigated and the hypotheses of import-output growth and export-output growth in Iran is examined using a MS-VAR model. This paper employs a MS-VAR model to determine the asymmetric relationship between the variables. In this model, the parameters are time-dependent and the variables in the VAR model behave based on the types of regimes (states) and the transition probabilities between them. This model is used to explore the regime-dependent responses of the output to export and import under different regimes. In the MS model, regimes are expected to pursue a latent random process. One of the most prominent peculiarities of the MS model is its ability to specify the shock performances differently in diverse manners. They are a subset of time series models that are able to analyze the dynamic behavior of variables under different circumstances. In addition, these models are generally suitable for capturing unobserved asymmetries in time series. Findings Since the Iranian economy is export-dependent, it seems that in case of structural breaks, the linear correlation method of the model is insufficient to estimate the total unit effect. Therefore, the Markov regime switching vector autoregression model (MSVAR) is used to analyze the nonlinear causality relationship between economic growth, export and import and to confirm the hypotheses of export- output growth and import-output growth. Three main data sets including real GDP, real exports and real imports are considered in logarithmic and differential form. The results of the unit root test show that all variables are at a stationary level. According to the results obtained in table (2), lag 5, which has the lowest value of Akaike and Schwartz, is determined as the optimal lag order. As can be seen in table (3), in the first stage, the value of the probability value of the χ2 test, which is less than one percent, indicates the non-linearity of the relationship between the variables. Hamilton states that the regime with intercept negative origin represents the bust regime and the regime with intercept positive origin indicates the boom regime. Here, the effect of intercept on economic growth in the first regime is positive and significant, but in the second regime, its effect on economic growth is negative and insignificant. Therefore, here the first regime represents the boom regime and the second regime represents the bust one. According to the results of the probability matrix, it can be said that the boom regime is more stable than the bust. Also, the results obtained from the causality relationship indicate a two-way non-linear causality relationship and confirm the feedback hypotheses, i.e. the hypotheses of export-output growth and import- output growth in Iran. In addition, the results show that in the boom regime, there is a one-way non-linear causal relationship between imports and exports from the export to import side. There is a two-way causality relationship between imports and exports in the recession regime. Discussion and Conclusion In the present study, the non-linear causality relationship and the confirmation of export-output growth and import-output growth hypotheses in Iran have been investigated using quarterly data during the period from 1988 to 2022. For this purpose, the non-linear approach Markov regime switching vector autoregression model (MSVAR) was used to investigate the non-linear causality relationship. The results show that the first regime (boom) is more stable and attractive than the second regime (bust). The results obtained from the causality relationship also indicate a two-way non-linear causality relationship and confirm the feedback hypotheses, i.e., export-output growth, import-output growth in Iran. هدف از این مطالعه بررسی رابطه علیت غیرخطی بین تولید، صادرات و واردات و بررسی فرضیه‌های رشد واردات-تولید و رشد صادرات‌-تولید در ایران با استفاده از داده ‏های فصلی طی دوره‏ی 1367:1 تا 1400:4 می‏باشد. با توجه به اینکه اکثر سری‌های اقتصادی به علل مختلف از جمله تغییرات ساختاری اقتصادی یا تغییر رفتار عوامل اقتصادی در طول زمان دچار تغییر در روند و رفتار می‌شوند، بر این اساس تغییرات سری‌های زمانی می‌تواند موجب تغییر روابط بین متغیرها در طول زمان شود. از این‌رو انتقال غیرخطی واردات و صادرات بسیار محتمل به‌نظر می‌رسد. انتقال غیرخطی واردات و صادرات به معنی تغییر نحوه اثرگذاری تغییرات واردات و صادرات بر تولید و برعکس می‌باشد. بدین منظور از رویکرد غیرخطی خودرگرسیون‌برداری تغییر رژیم مارکوف جهت بررسی رابطه علیت غیرخطی استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که با توجه با مثبت بودن عرض از مبدأ در رژیم اول و منفی بودن آن در رژیم دوم، رژیم اول بیانگر رژیم رونق و رژیم دوم نشان‌دهنده رژیم رکود می‌باشد. با توجه به نتایج ماتریس احتمالات هم می‌توان گفت رژیم رونق نسبت به رژیم رکود پایدارتر است. همچنین نتایج حاصل از رابطه علیت بیانگر رابطه علیت غیرخطی دوطرفه و تأیید فرضیه‌های بازخورد، یعنی فرضیه‌های رشد صادرات-تولید و رشد واردات-تولید در ایران است. علاوه‌براین نتایج نشان می‌دهد که در رژیم رونق رابطه علیت غیرخطی یک‌طرفه بین واردات و صادرات از سمت صادرات به واردات وجود دارد. رابطه علیت دو طرفه هم بین واردات و صادرات در رژیم رکود برقرار است.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_13614_ca6d44105c8d58368d11134a0e2146ff.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 24 3 2024 08 22 Social Security System Layers and Islamic Economic Justice with Special Emphasis on Takaful بررسی تأثیر لایه‌ های نظام تأمین اجتماعی بر عدالت اقتصادی - اسلامی با تأکید بر تکافل 229 254 13615 10.22034/24.3.229 FA حمیدرضا نائب خسروشاهی دانشجوی دکتری تخصصی اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت، اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد تبریز، تبریز، ایران محمدرضا ناهیدی امیرخیز استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت، اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد تبریز، تبریز، ایران محمدعلی متفکر آزاد استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و بازرگانی، دانشگاه تبریز،تبریز، ایران. سیدعلی پایتختی اسکوئی دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت، اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد تبریز، تبریز، ایران Journal Article Introduction Economic development is one of the main goals of all countries, and most scientists believe that development is only accessible if there is equality. For this reason, despite the differences and contradictions in schools and societies, the issue of inequality and especially economic inequality has been always a vital concern of economists and policymakers all over the world. Meanwhile, since justice is one of the fundamental goals of Islam, Islamic economists have a more scrutinizing and much clear vision of equality. Apart from the importance of economic equality in Islam, it has a cucial role in social security systems and equality concepts as well. Takaful insurance, is a widely used Islamic model in insurance risk coverage which has fundamental differences with conventional insurance mechanisms. Takaful is cooperative, not profit oriented, and fully allined and complied with Islamic rules and regulations. This study is aiming at investigating the effect of various layers of social security system on Islamic-economic equality in the Iranian provinces during 2008-2021. GMM prediction model is applied for predicting the effect of Takaful on inequality and directing houshold religious expenses towards Takaful insurance. Methodology According to previous theoretical and experimental literature, economic inequality can be affected by inequality in previous years. Therefore, in this study a dynamic econometric method is used to include the lagged dependant variable as one of the explanatory variables. In general, if a variable depends on vaiables of previous periods, among other independent ones, it is better to use a dynamic panel data model. Generalized method of moments is one of the common and widely used dynamic approaches. The reason for the popularity of this method is that it is very flexible and requires only some weak assumptions. Therefore, Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) greatly solves the problems of static panel data methods related to autocorrelation, variance heterogeneity, and skewness. The reason for using this method is that, firstly, there is a possibility that the current dependent variable is affected by the lagged variables, and secondly, since one of the ways to control the endogeneity of variables is to use instrumental variable and due to the fact that it is very difficult to find such an instrument, it is possible to use lagged variables as appropriate instruments applying GMM estimator. Findings The results of this research indicate that the inequality of the previous period has a positive and significant relationship with current economic inequality in all three models. This means that high inequality in the previous period causes high inequality in the current period. Moreover, consistent with some studies, GDP has a positive and significant relationship with economic inequality. It means that an increase in GDP is associated with increased inequality. This result indicates that in Iran, there is no antipoverty growth. Inflation rate has also a negative relationship with inequality in all models, and this relationship is significant in two models. Following some previous studies, this result can be interpreted as the negative relationship can be caused by the fact that the inflation of luxury goods is higher than the inflation of essential goods and therefore, increased inflation is more detrimental to the rich. In addition, all three layers of social assistance, basic social insurance, and supplementary social insurance significantly reduce inequality. Meanwhile, basic social insurance has the greatest effect, and social assistance has the least effect on reducing inequality. In addition, based on the results, it can be stated that by directing houshold religious expenses towards Takaful insurance, which is an Islamic insurance and a type of basic social insurance, it is possible to reduce Islamic-Economic inequality in 2023 and 2024. The amounts of the decreases are predicted to be a minimum of 0.31 and 0.25 (Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari) and a maximum of 5.95 and 5.91 (Markazi). Discussion and Conclusion According to the results, investing in all three layers of social security can lead to a reduction in inequality. Therefore, it is suggested not to ignore any layer in policymaking. Due to the greater impact of basic insurance on equality, it is thought to consider it as the basic layer of social security and focus on this layer to reduce inequality more. Managers and policymakers can also focus on Takaful as one of the basic types of insurance and help to provide Islamic-Economic equality by directing houshold religious expenses towards Takaful. Moreover, it is suggested that the governmental plans should be based on combining economic growth with improved welfare and income distribution which is one of the main goals of the Islamic economy. It is also suggested that the religious and cultural officials should create the necessary explanation and enlightenment related to Takaful and social responsibility of people. The government responsiblity in creating a foundation and guiding people to fulfill their social responsibility by strengthening and developing Zakat headquarters and communicating with social security organization should not be underestimated. با توجه به اهمیت عدالت اقتصادی از دیدگاه اسلام از یک‌سو و نقش تعیین ‏کننده نظام تأمین اجتماعی در عدالت از سوی دیگر، همچنین براساس این واقعیت که بیمه تکافل به‌عنوان یک الگوی اسلامی پرکاربرد در پوشش ریسک بیمه که تفاوت‏هایی اساسی همچون مشارکتی بودن، عدم تمرکز بر سود، و تطابق با مقررات شریعت با بیمه‏ های مرسوم دارد، مورد توجه اندیشمندان حوزه مالی و نیز فعالان بازارهای مالی، به‌خصوص بازار محصولات بیمه‏ ای درکشورهای مختلف اسلامی جهان است، هدف مطالعه حاضر بررسی تأثیر انواع لایه ‏های نظام تأمین اجتماعی بر عدالت اقتصادی اسلامی در استان‏های ایران در دورۀ زمانی 1387-1400 با به‌کارگیری روش GMM و نیز پیش‏بینی تأثیر تکافل بر ارتقای عدالت از طریق هدایت هزینه‏ های مذهبی خانوارها به سمت بیمه تکافل بوده است. نتایج این پژوهش حاکی از آن است که نابرابری دوره قبل و تولید ناخالص داخلی رابطه مثبت و نرخ تورم رابطه منفی با نابرابری دارند. علاوه بر این، هر سه لایه مساعدت‏های اجتماعی، بیمه‏ های اجتماعی پایه و بیمه ‏های اجتماعی تکمیلی به‌طور معنی‏ داری باعث کاهش نابرابری می‏ گردد. در این میان، بیمه ‏های اجتماعی پایه بیشترین تأثیر و مساعدت‏های اجتماعی کمترین تأثیر را بر کاهش نابرابری دارند. علاوه بر این، براساس نتایج حاصله، می‏ توان بیان نمود که از طریق هدایت مخارج مذهبی خانوارها به سوی بیمه تکافل که بیمه‌ای اسلامی و از نوع بیمه اجتماعی پایه می‏‏ باشد، می‏توان نابرابری اقتصادی اسلامی را در سال‏های 1402 و 1403 به‌ترتیب به میزان حداقل0.31 و 0.25 (چهار محال و بختیاری) و حداکثر 5.95 و 5.91 (مرکزی) کاهش داد.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_13615_f334c47648f6c8f9eb0bc8c416f217a2.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 24 3 2024 08 22 Unemployment and Crime in the Iranian Cities A Spatial Econometric Approach بررسی رابطۀ بیکاری با جرم و جنایت در شهرستان‌های ایران: رهیافت اقتصادسنجی فضایی 255 282 13616 10.22034/24.3.255 FA الهام نوبهار استادیار دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران سید کمال صادقی استاد اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران 0009-0009-1034-5321 هادی خیرالهی زکی کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران Journal Article Introduction Crime is a multifaceted phenomenon that has always attracted the attention of economists, sociologists, lawyers and psychologists. Many experts and economic pioneers consider it necessary to achieve economic development to improve the level of security and reduce crime in the society. Since the occurrence of any phenomenon is affected by various factors, the occurrence of crime as an undesirable phenomenon is not excluded from this rule. Various economic, social and political factors affect crime in society. Identifying these factors can help a lot in the correct understanding and appropriate policy making in order to control and reduce the crime rate in the society. Meanwhile, one of the most important economic factors affecting crime is unemployment. Unemployment is one of the most important macroeconomic variables, which clearly affects many social phenomena, including crime. In this regard, the main goal of the present study is to investigate the relationship between unemployment and crime and to identify factors affecting crime in the Iranian cities. The statistical population of the current research is the cities of Iran and the time range under investigation is 2016. Methodology In this study, the spatial causality test was used to investigate the relationship between unemployment and crime. The first step in investigating the spatial causality relationship between the studied variables is to perform the spatial independence test of the variables. In the second step, the existence of spatial dependence between variables is examined. If both the investigated variables have a spatial structure and there is a spatial dependence between the two variables, then the spatial causality test is performed in the third step. In this study, the spatial econometric approach has also been used to estimate the crime model in the cities of Iran. In this regard, the presence of spatial effects in the model has been tested using Moran's I test, and then the most appropriate spatial regression model has been selected and estimated based on the Lagrange coefficient (LM) test and the LR diagnostic tests. The software packages used in this study are Matlab 2023, GeoDa 1.16 and Stata 15. Findings The results of the spatial tests show that both crime index and unemployment rate have a spatial structure and the spatial dependence between these two variables was also confirmed, so in the third step, the spatial causality has been tested. The results of spatial causality test indicate the existence of a two-way causality relationship between the crime index and the unemployment rate. In other words, unemployment was the cause of crime during the period under investigation, and unemployment also led to the occurrence and increase of crime. According to the results of the spatial causality test, the crime model of the Iranian cities was developed in terms of the unemployment variable and several control variables. In order to estimate the model, the presence of spatial effects was first investigated using Moran's I test. The results of this test indicate the presence of spatial effects in the model. Also, based on the results of the Lagrange coefficient and likelihood ratio tests, the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) was chosen as the most appropriate method for estimating the model. The results of the estimation of the crime model indicate that the spatial lag coefficient is positive and significant at a high level, which indicates the existence of spatial dependence in the model. The positiveness of this coefficient shows that an increase in crime in one city causes an increase in crime in neighboring cities. Also, according to the results of the research, the variables of unemployment, industrialization, urbanization and divorce rate are the most important variables affecting crime rate. The results show positive and significant relationships between unemployment, urbanization, divorce rate, and crime. The industrialization variable also has a negative and significant effect on crime. Also, the spillover effect of the unemployment variable is negative and significant. Based on the results, the higher the unemployment rate and the urbanization rate in the cities, the crime rate will also increase in those cities. On the other hand, as cities move toward industrialization and the number of industrial enterprises in them increases, the rate of crime will decrease more. Discussion and conclusion The findings reveal that, unemployment is one of the most important variables affecting crime in the Iranian cities. So, it is recommended that authorities pay special attention to sustainable policies regarding employment and its proportional distribution in cities. Considering excessive growth of urbanization and its detrimental impact on rampant crime rates, it is suggested that statesmen and policy makers create more facilities and pay special attention to rural areas to provide reverse migration in order to prevent occurrence of various crimes, which are happenning due to population increase especially in informal settlements of larger cities. جرم پدیـده‏ای چنـدوجهـی اسـت کـه همـواره مـورد توجه اقتصاددانان، جامعه‏شناسان، حقوق‏دانان و روان‌شناسان قرار گرفته است. از آنجایی‌که وقوع هر پدیده متأثر از عوامل مختلفی است، وقوع جرم نیز به ‏عنوان پدیده‌ای نامطلوب از این قاعده مستثنی نیست. عوامل مختلف اقتصادی، اجتماعی و سیاسی بر جرم و جنایت در جامعه تأثیر گذارند. در این میان یکی از مهم‌ترین عوامل اقتصادی مؤثر بر جرم، بیکاری است. در این راستا هدف اصلی مطالعۀ حاضر بررسی رابطۀ بیکاری با جرم و شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر جرم و جنایت در شهرستان‏های ایران است. به این منظور با استفاده از داده‏ های 429 شهرستان ایران طی سال 1395 و با به‌کارگیری روش علیت فضایی رابطه بین دو متغیر بیکاری و شاخص جرم بررسی شد. نتایج حاصل از آزمون علیت فضایی بیانگر وجود رابطۀ علیت دوطرفه بین شاخص جرم و نرخ بیکاری است. به عبارت دیگر در دورۀ مورد بررسی جرم علت بیکاری بوده است و بیکاری نیز منجر به بروز و افزایش جرم شده است. در ادامه مدل جرم با لحاظ متغیر بیکاری و چندین متغیر کنترل با استفاده از رویکرد اقتصادسنجی فضایی مورد برآورد قرار گرفت. نتایج حاصل از برآورد مدل نشان‏ دهنده وجود اثرات سرریز فضایی است. به عبارت دیگر تغییر میزان جرم و جنایت در یک شهرستان دارای اثرات سرریز بر شهرستان‌های مجاور است. همچنین نتایج نشان ‏دهنده رابطه مثبت و معنادار متغیر بیکاری با جرم است. مطابق نتایج تحقیق، متغیرهای نرخ بیکاری، شاخص صنعتی‌شدن، نرخ شهرنشینی و نسبت طلاق به ازدواج مهم‌ترین متغیرهای مؤثر بر جرم و جنایت در شهرستان‏های ایران هستند.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_13616_ea415b5f7047769aac77f70df7226a85.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 24 3 2024 08 22 Threshold Effects, Sacrifice Ratio and Government Debt The Smooth Transition Regression Approach تأثیر آستانه‌ای عوامل مؤثر بر نسبت چشم‌پوشی با تأکید بر بدهی دولت 283 312 13617 10.22034/24.3.283 FA سارا قبادی استادیار گروه حکمرانی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران. Journal Article Introduction The significance of inflation in the economic system and the production reduction or loss resulted from an anti-inflation policy as an integral part of inflation control policies, should never be underrated. It is critically important to study the sacrifice ratio and influencing factors which measure the accumulated losses in real production as a result of one percent permanent reduction in the inflation. It is considered as a criterion which makes it possible to somehow evaluate the effects of inflation control policies imposed by the central bank. Therefore, in the present research, the factors influencing the sacrifice ratio are identified by emphasizing the government debt in Iran and using seasonal data (1997-2021). Methodology In order to achieve the goal of the research, the following relationship is considered: SRt=β0+β1(DebtGdp)t+β2Opent+β3Speedt +β4Transt+β5Itt+εt (1) SRt : The sacrifice ratio is equal to the cumulative amount of the reaction of economic growth to the monetary shock, while the denominator only shows the final effect of the change in inflation as a result of a monetary shock. This ratio is calculated as follows: SR=S=0T∂yt+s∂εm1∂t+T∂εmt (2) Itt : Inflation targeting is defined as an optimal monetary policy. The optimal monetary policy is obtained by minimizing the social loss function according to the constraints of the monetary transmission mechanism. The inflation targeting policy is calculated as follows: πt*=πt+yt-y+et-et-1 (3) πt,πt* are inflation rate and target inflation rate respectively, (yt-y) is the deviation of the product from its potential level, et is the exchange rate (dollar price of the country's currency). (DebtGdp)t : The ratio of debt to GDP for governments shows their ability to repay their existing loans and repay the loans they will receive. Opent : The degree of trade openness is defined as the ratio of total exports and imports to GDP and reflects economic development and diversity. Speedt : The speed of deflation is equal to the ratio of the total amount of deflation to the length of time during which inflation has decreased. Transt : The instrument of monetary policy is more transparent, which can reveal the actions of the monetary policy maker better and faster to the public. The index defined for transparency was considered as the following relationship: TIBLt =110 -1INFibound-INFt if INFt =INFt* if INFilower-boundt <INFt Fiupper-boundif INFt ≥INFiupper-bound or INFt ≤INFilower-bound (4) INFi consumer price index, INFt* monthly inflation, INFibound time interval of inflation in each year, INFi* inflation was considered and calculated and the past transparency index. When transparency is high, this index is equal to one, and if inflation is very high and in other words, transparency is very low, the index above will be equal to zero. To achieve the goal of this research, the Smooth Transition Regression Model (STR) is used. Findings The results obtained from the estimation of the model indicate that (DebtGdp)t-1 is the transition variable of the sacrifice ratio function. So that when (DebtGdp)t-1 reaches the threshold of 0.817, the function of the sacrifice ratio enters the second limit regime. The results indicate that (DebtGdp)t and Opent in both regimes have a positive effect on the sacrifice ratio and this effect is strengthened in the second regime. In the second regime, the Speedt also had a positive effect on the sacrifice ratio. Also, Transt and Itt have had a negative effect on the sacrifice ratio in both regimes, but this effect has been strengthened in the second regime. Discussion and Conclusion In relation to the positive effect of (DebtGdp)t on the sacrifice ratio, it can be said that an increase in government debt increases the wealth of bond holders, provided that other wealth items are constant, so the price of long-term bonds increases. The total demand and price level increase at the same time. In this case, the supply of money, which is endogenous and a function of the demand and the amount of government debt, increases in accordance with the demand for money. In this case, the price level, which is the balancing factor of the future nominal value of discounted wealth and the nominal value of public debt, increases. Therefore, the cost of deflationary policies has increased and ultimately leads to an increase in the sacrifice ratio. Expansionary monetary policy can lead to excess demand in the economy and thus cause an increase in the general level of prices, and the pressure to increase prices can be reduced through imports and thus by changes in the balance of payments. In fact, trade openness may shift some of the inflationary pressure to the balance of payments, resulting in lower average increases in the general price level. The positive effect of increasing speed of reducing inflation, in the second regime has led to an increase in the sacrifice ratio. In general, the improvement in the transparency index will be effective in reducing the sacrifice ratio. In case of transparency in Central Bank data, it could be potentially considered as one of the key tools in the field of monetary policy management. In fact, the transparency of information will lead to an increase in the commitment of Central Bank in dealing with inflation. It could also control inflation and ultimately lead to a reduction in the cost of deflationary policies, and sacrifice ratio decrease. Inflation targeting by means of public announcement of official quantitative targets for the rate of inflation over one or more times horizons could be considered as a workable policy. By explicit declarations, low and stable inflation will be assumed as the main goal of monetary policy in the long run. Inflation targeting minimizes the motivation of Central Bank to show opportunistic behavior and this may increase the credibility of this regulatory institution in the loner term. Subsequently, the general public will adjust their inflation expectations in a fast state and therefore the costs of deflationary policies will decrease in return. با توجه به اهمیت تورم در نظام اقتصادی و مطرح‌شدن کاهش یا زیان تولیدی ناشی از یک سیاست ضد‌تورمی به‌عنوان جزء جدایی‏ ناپذیر سیاست‌های کنترل تورم، بررسی نسبت چشم‌پوشی و عوامل مؤثر بر آن که زیان انباشته در تولید واقعی را در نتیجۀ یک درصد کاهش دائمی در تورم اندازه‌گیری می‌کند و معیاری است که می‌توان با توسل بدان تا حدودی آثار سیاست‌های کنترل تورم اعمال‌شده از سوی بانک مرکزی را ارزیابی نمود، ضروری به‌نظر می‏رسد. از این‌رو در مطالعه حاضر به شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر نسبت چشم‌پوشی با تأکید بر بدهی دولت در ایران در دوره زمانی 1376:1-1400:1 پرداخته شد. برآورد الگوی تحقیق با استفاده از رویکرد غیرخطی رگرسیون انتقال ملایم (STR) انجام شد. نتایج حاصل از برآورد الگو نشان می‌دهد که نسبت بدهی دولت با یک وقفه متغیر انتقال تابع نسبت چشم‌پوشی است. با رسیدن متغیر مذکور به حدآستانه‌ای برابر با 817/0، تابع نسبت چشم‌پوشی تغییر رژیم داده و وارد رژیم دوم شده است. نتایج برآورد حاکی از اثر مثبت بدهی دولت به تولید ناخالص داخلی و درجه بازبودن تجاری بر نسبت چشم‌پوشی در هر دو رژیم است، به‌طوری‌که این اثرات در رژیم دوم تقویت شده است. شفافیت سیاست پولی و هدف‌گذاری تورم در هر دو رژیم اثر منفی بر نسبت چشم‌پوشی داشته‌اند، اما این اثرات در رژیم دوم تقویت شده است. سرعت کاهش تورم علی‌رغم تأثیر بی‌معنی در رژیم اول، در رژیم دوم اثر مثبت و معنی‌داری بر نسبت چشم‌پوشی داشته است.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_13617_88fce63f42b8b78770aae2e70ccb67bc.pdf

دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 24 3 2024 08 22 Tobin Tax and Shocks on the Balance of Payment A DSGE Approach ارزیابی نقش مالیات توبین در واکنش تکانه‌های تراز پرداخت‌ها: رویکرد DSGE 313 343 13618 10.22034/24.3.313 FA محمد نیک زاد دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران مهدی یزدانی گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران 0000-0002-8045-7232 Journal Article Introduction Balance of payment (BOP) shocks are one of the most important factors causing instability in economies that rely heavily on raw material export. Due to its dependence on oil revenues, the Iranian economy has been affected by balance of payment impulses in different eras, which have led to the instability of the macro-economy, especially the fluctuation of exchange rate, and sometimes occurrence of currency crisis. In the literature of public finance, there are several types of taxes on financial transactions, each of which has been introduced according to a specific purpose. Nevertheless, these taxes have common characteristics that are considered as basis for their selection and implementation at some point of time, especially during the periods of financial crises. These include curbing fluctuations of financial markets, collecting fair taxes and the possibility of reducing tax evasion compared to other taxes as the most important features. Tobin's original idea was a double tax on currency transactions, which is due when the currency is bought and sold. The mentioned tax has a bias towards long-term investment and leads to moving away from short-term speculation and ultimately creating economic stability. In general, this tax can lead to its spending by increasing investment returns and increasing economic stability. Methodology One of the presented instruments in the literature of open macroeconomics in order to control excessive exchange rate fluctuations, especially when the economy is faced with exogenous negative impulses such as international sanctions, is to control capital outflow through the Tobin tax in the exchange rate market. In this study, by presenting a DSGE model for an open economy and compatible with the conditions of the Iranian economy, it was tried to evaluate the role of Tobin Tax in stabilizing macroeconomic variables. The focus was especially on evaluating the exchange rate in response to the shocks of the balance of payment in the framework of the managed floating exchange rate system. The presented model in this paper is simulated using the Dynare program that runs in MATLAB software. Daynar is able to find steady-state values for variables of the model and calculates impulse response paths of variables in case of economic shocks. At this stage, the pattern is written in the form of a Dynare file, which should have 5 sections that include the introduction of all variables (including endogenous and exogenous variables and parameters), the equations in the model, the initial values of the variables, and the available impulses. If all the steps above are done correctly, the Dynare program simulates the model and produces the impulse response functions for the variables of model against the included impulses and a summary of the moments of the simulated variables. Hence, in this study, it will be tried to evaluate the role of Tobin Tax in controlling the balance of payments innovations in the framework of the management floating exchange rate system. Results and Discussion The results of the analyzed variables show that with the negative shock of oil export, the output also decreases. Due to the decrease in the foreign exchange reserves, the real exchange rate has increased initially. With a decrease in the output and an increase in the real exchange rate, inflation increases at first. With a decrease in the amount of the output, also the consumption will decrease. Finally, with a decrease in the amount of the oil exports, the balance of payment has also been disturbed. The results of the impulse response functions of the oil export as a balance of payment shock showed that the application of Tobin Tax has reduced the variance of the exchange rate resulting from balance of payment shocks, which is in accordance with the economic literature. The obtained results have also shown that, Tobin tax has reduced the deviations of inflation and the output that the welfare loss function have decreased. Conclusion Therefore, according to the resuls, the policymaker can use the Tobin tax as a more transparent and efficient policy tool than quotas in the exchange rate market, which lead to provide more efficiency exchange rate market in mid and long-run. تکانه‌های تراز پرداخت‌ها به‌عنوان یک منبع بی‌ثباتی در یک اقتصاد باز شناخته می‌شوند. این در حالی است که بی‌ثباتی و نوسان نرخ ارز به دلیل تکانه‌های تراز پرداخت‌ها در اقتصاد ایران در دفعات متعدد اتفاق افتاده و در مواردی منجر به بحران پولی شده است. با وجود این سیاست‌گذار سعی داشته است که با توجه به ابزارهای سیاستی یا سیاست‌های دستوری، این نوسان‌ها را کنترل کند. یکی از ابزارهای سیاستی معرفی‌ شده در ادبیات اقتصاد کلان باز، مالیات توبین است. هدف از این پژوهش بررسی اثر مالیات توبین بر نوسان‌های نرخ ارز در واکنش به تکانه‌ صادرات نفت به‌عنوان اصلی‏ ترین تکانه تراز پرداخت‌ها برای اقتصاد ایران در چهارچوب نظام‌ ارزی شناور مدیریت شده است. برای این منظور، از یک الگوی تعادل عمومی تصادفی پویا برای اقتصاد باز کوچک استفاده شده است. نتایج این مطالعه ﻧﺸﺎن می‏دهد که تکانه تراز پرداخت‌ها منجر به بی‌ثباتی در متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان و به‌ویژه نرخ ارز خواهد شد. طبق نتایج به‌دست‌ آمده، مالیات توبین انحرافات تورم و تولید را کاهش داده و براساس تابع زیان رفاهی تعریف شده براساس انحرافات نرخ ارز، تورم و تولید، زیان رفاهی درمجموع کاهش پیدا کرده است. بر این اساس سیاست‌گذار می‌تواند از این ابزار در جهت کنترل نوسان‌های نرخ ارز در مواجهه با تکانه‌های تراز پرداخت‌ها استفاده کند.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_13618_34f8150045a976a95a6a16248623f28b.pdf