دانشگاه تربیت مدرس پژوهش ها و چشم اندازهای اقتصادی 3115-9168 26 1 2026 03 21 Fluctuations in Employment, Wages, and Central Bank Reserves نوسانات اشتغال و دستمزد و ذخایر بانک مرکزی 199 228 27942 10.48311/ecor.2025.27942 FA مهلا افشارپور دانشجوی دکتری، گروه آموزشی علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران سید عبدالمجید جلائی استاد، گروه آموزشی علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران حسین اکبری فرد دانشیار، گروه آموزشی علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان 0000-0003-1378-1179 مهدی نجاتی دانشیار، گروه آموزشی علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران Journal Article 2025 02 24 Abstract The labor market is considered one of the fundamental pillars of any country's economy, and its fluctuations can have significant impacts on economic policies, particularly monetary policies and the composition of central bank assets. This study examines the dynamic role of labor market variables in adjusting the optimal composition of the Central Bank of Iran's assets. The primary objective of this research is to analyze how changes in wage levels and employment affect the central bank's asset portfolio and to formulate appropriate policies for optimal asset management.Previous studies have demonstrated that fluctuations in labor market variables, such as wage levels and employment rates, influence liquidity, interest rates, and money demand. These factors ultimately reshape the composition of central bank assets. In this context, the present study employs an optimal control model and the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm to investigate this issue. Aim and Introduction: The labor market is considered one of the fundamental pillars of any country's economy, and its fluctuations can have significant impacts on economic policies, particularly monetary policies and the composition of central bank assets. This study examines the dynamic role of labor market variables in adjusting the optimal composition of the Central Bank of Iran's assets. The primary objective of this research is to analyze how changes in wage levels and employment affect the central bank's asset portfolio and to formulate appropriate policies for optimal asset management.Previous studies have demonstrated that fluctuations in labor market variables, such as wage levels and employment rates, influence liquidity, interest rates, and money demand. These factors ultimately reshape the composition of central bank assets. In this context, the present study employs an optimal control model and the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm to investigate this issue. Methodology: To analyze the impact of labor market variables on the composition of the Central Bank of Iran's assets, economic data from the country covering the period from 1971 to 2023 has been collected. This dataset includes information on wage levels, employment rates, liquidity, interest rates, inflation rates, central bank asset composition, and other macroeconomic indicators. The research methodology is based on the optimal control model and the PSO algorithm, implemented in the Python (Spyder) environment. In this model, labor market variables are considered within a range from 0.5 (representing severe contractionary changes) to 1.5 (indicating severe expansionary changes). This range captures the impact of various labor market policies on the optimal composition of central bank assets. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis has been conducted to examine the effects of different labor market changes on asset composition. Findings: The results indicate that fluctuations in wage levels and employment have varying effects on the composition of the central bank's assets. In times of significant wage increases, money demand rises, leading to higher liquidity growth and intensified consumer spending in the economy. Consequently, the central bank increases the share of debt securities to control inflation and raises the proportion of euros and gold in its asset portfolio to diversify foreign exchange reserves. Conversely, during periods of declining wage levels, the central bank tends to hold more stable assets such as the US dollar and the Swiss franc, reflecting heightened economic uncertainty and reduced risk appetite. The analysis of employment changes also shows that an improved labor market leads to higher money demand, prompting the central bank to increase the issuance of debt securities to control liquidity. Under such conditions, the share of euros, yuan, and debt securities in the central bank's asset composition rises, while the need to hold stable assets such as gold diminishes. In contrast, during periods of declining employment, the central bank exhibits a greater preference for low-risk assets, increasing the share of US dollars, Swiss francs, and gold. This trend reflects a growing demand for safe-haven assets and a decline in confidence in financial markets. Another key finding of this study is that wage increases raise the likelihood of higher liquidity and inflation, leading to an increased share of gold and debt securities in the central bank’s portfolio. On the other hand, during economic recessions and wage declines, the demand for stable currencies such as the US dollar and Japanese yen increases, and the central bank is compelled to issue more debt securities to control liquidity and manage inflation. Economic sanctions also play a crucial role in shaping the central bank’s asset composition. Due to economic constraints and sanctions, Iran has faced difficulties in accessing foreign currencies. As a result, the central bank has leaned towards increasing the share of gold and yuan in its asset portfolio to mitigate the negative effects of foreign exchange market fluctuations. Conclusion and Recommendations: The findings of this study reveal that labor market fluctuations have a dynamic impact on the composition of the Central Bank of Iran's assets. During periods of economic prosperity, rising employment, and higher wages, the central bank exhibits a greater tendency to invest in financial instruments and foreign currencies. In contrast, during economic downturns and declining employment, the central bank adopts more conservative policies, focusing on stable assets such as gold and stronger currencies. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the Central Bank of Iran adopt a dynamic and flexible approach to managing its asset portfolio. During economic booms, increasing the issuance of debt securities and utilizing diverse financial instruments can help control liquidity and curb inflation. In contrast, during recessions, increasing the share of safe reserves and reducing reliance on debt instruments can mitigate financial risks and maintain economic stability.Furthermore, coordination between labor market policies and monetary policies can play a significant role in optimizing the central bank’s asset composition, ensuring that wage and employment fluctuations are directly incorporated into decision-making processes. Finally, leveraging modern financial instruments and diversifying foreign exchange reserves can reduce dependency on specific assets and enhance flexibility in responding to economic shocks. Given Iran’s economic structure and challenges such as inflation, sanctions, and labor market volatility, developing a comprehensive and adaptive strategy for managing central bank asset composition is essential. در این پژوهش، نقش پویای متغیرهای بازار کار بر ترکیب بهینه دارایی‌های بانک مرکزی ایران بررسی شده است. برای این منظور، یک مدل کنترل بهینه با استفاده از داده‌های اقتصادی ایران طی سال‌های ۱۳۵۰ تا ۱۴۰۲ و روش الگوریتم بهینه‌سازی ازدحام ذرات در محیط Spyder برآورد شده است. تحلیل حساسیت متغیرهای مدل مطالعه، نشان میدهد که تغییرات سطح دستمزد و اشتغال، به‌عنوان متغیرهای کلیدی بازار کار، تأثیرات مهمی بر سیاست‌های پولی و ترکیب دارایی‌های بانک مرکزی دارند. یافته ها حاکی از این است که در شرایط افزایش دستمزد، نقدینگی و تورم افزایش یافته و در واکنش به آن، سهم اوراق بدهی و طلا در سبد دارایی‌های بانک مرکزی رشد می‌کند. همچنین، در شرایط کاهش اشتغال، بانک مرکزی به سمت دارایی‌های امن مانند دلار، فرانک سوئیس و طلا متمایل می‌شود. در مقابل، بهبود وضعیت اشتغال منجر به افزایش سهم یورو، یوان و اوراق بدهی می‌گردد. این یافته‌ها بر اهمیت تدوین یک استراتژی پویا و منعطف در مدیریت ذخایر بانک مرکزی تأکید دارند. پیشنهاد می‌شود که در دوره‌های رونق، کنترل نقدینگی از طریق انتشار اوراق بدهی و در دوره‌های رکود، تمرکز بر دارایی‌های باثبات افزایش یابد تا ثبات اقتصادی حفظ شود.

https://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article_27942_aa59dfe9cea81f87553c5d9f1046a84f.pdf